Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

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Historically, the price of BTC has fallen from a high position. Once it effectively breaks below the support of the 120-day moving average, there will often be a withdrawal confirmation action later. In May of this year, it fell sharply. It took 86 days after BTC fell below the 120-day moving average to bottom and then regained its footing. Later, a new round of trend market started, and the price rose to $69,000 and hit a new record high.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

The Mavericks market in 2019 ended. After BTC fell from a high to the support of the 120-day moving average, it accelerated downwards and then oscillated to the bottom. It took 36 days from the break to quickly rise to the top near the 120-day moving average, and it was confirmed that the break was effective. Prices continued to fall to new lows.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

In 2018, the bear market started. BTC dropped below the 120-day moving average from a high point and also accelerated downward. Later, the pin bottomed and rebounded to near the 120-day moving average. This process took 18 days. It took 18 days to test the 120-day moving average and failed to regain its position. , The bear market process continues after the top and fall.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

In the bear market in 2014, BTC also experienced a move of falling below the high level and then pulling back the 120-day moving average. This process took 19 days, but the rebound failed to break through, and the price continued to fall back to new lows.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

During the mid-term adjustment of the bull market in 2013, BTC hit a peak and fell below the 120-day moving average support at a high level. It took 46 days to stand again, and the bull market continued its new high.

We can find that historically, the probability of BTC falling below the 120-day moving average from a high level and then withdrawing is greater. If it can stand again, it will generally start a new round of upward trend. If the rebound is blocked in this area, then The probability of falling back to a new low is high, so the 120-day moving average plays a key role in the evolution of the BTC trend. At present, BTC has fallen below the 120-day line for 25 days. Once it starts to rebound, observe whether BTC can regain its position on the 120-day moving average. The current 120-day moving average and the previous arc top and neck line coincide. To accelerate the downtrend, the rebound will also become a key resistance level. If BTC can regain its strength in this area, then BTC will be expected to usher in a new round of rising again.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

In the mid-term adjustment of the bull market in 2013, BTC formed a double top in this bull market. The highest monthly line pierced the Fibonacci 1.618 suppression line, but the closing line failed to stand. A mid-term major adjustment was carried out and fell below the Fibonacci 1.414 support. The V-shaped reversal regained its position, and before the second main rise of the current bull market started, the needle was again sharply inserted to the 1.414 support band for confirmation, and then the monthly line effectively broke through 1.618, and a new round of the main rise of the current bull market was initiated after a strong wash. .

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

In 2017 and 2013, the bull market was different. The monthly BTC line effectively stood above the 1.618 suppression line, but it was confirmed that it retreated sharply in the following month. The lowest pin reached 1.414 and the support zone bottomed out, and the monthly line closed at the 1.618 trend line. Above, after a strong wash ushered in the main rise of the late bull market.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

This round of bull market is similar to the trend in 2013. In the first half of the year, it rushed above the 1.618 Fibonacci line, but the monthly line failed to stand, and a mid-term adjustment was ushered in. After falling below the 1.414 support, it bottomed out and rebounded and then regained 1.414. Trend line, even if the price hits a new record high later, the October and November monthly line still failed to effectively break through the 1.618 suppression line, and then ushered in this wave of major adjustments starting at $69,000. The lowest pin reached 1.414 to gain support and quickly rise. The rebound is similar to the trend in 2013. Before the start of the new round of the main rise in the previous bull market, there was a significant stepping back on the 1.414 support band, and this wave of 69,000 US dollars is also a trend. If it is stable and does not break and forms a bottom structure, then there will be a chance to move upward again. The 1.414 support band is located in the range of 42000-42500 US dollars, and the key monthly line 1.618 suppresses the range of 61500-62000 US dollars.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

The sharp drop that started at $69,000 in the previous period, the BTC weekly line stepped back on the previous top downtrend line that was broken in the previous period, and the price pierced and recovered for a short time. The weekly closing line was still above the line and did not effectively break below. The RSI indicator It also completed the step-back, and the overall price fell into the category of breaking the step-back. At the same time, the price also stepped on the 55-week moving average support. In the first half of the year, BTC plummeted in May, and the lowest fell to the 55-week moving average. Trending market to 69,000 dollars.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

In history, once the BTC weekly line breaks through the long-term suppression line, it will often start a new round of market if it fails to step back. The most recent is the adjustment in September last year from 12,500 US dollars to 9,800 US dollars, and the price regained the previous breakthrough in 2017. The long-term downtrend line of the bull top in 2019 and the bull top in 2019, the RSI indicator also cannot be broken. Later, BTC oscillated around this line for a month to bottom, and then launched the main uptrend of this round of bull market from 10,000 to 65,000 U.S. dollars.

The last round of weekly breakthroughs was in April 2019. BTC completed more than three months of bottom consolidation and directly initiated a strong market. The price rose from 4,000 US dollars to 14,000 US dollars and peaked again. Before that, in July 2015, the BTC’s weekly breakout ushered in its stepping back and forth, and the 2016-2017 bull market was ushered in after the breakthrough was confirmed.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

The purpose of the break-back in the upward trend is generally to wash the market and shake the position, in order to verify the effectiveness of the previous break, and prepare for the further pull-up in the future. Technically, BTC is still operating in the 312 long-term upward trend channel last year, and the general direction is still a shock upward trend. It is currently rebounding in the key support area, and the weekly line reverses the last week’s negative line, and the price breaks through the previous top 69,000 US dollars downward trend Line, as long as the support line is stable and not broken, BTC will have the possibility of bottoming again, and then there will be a chance to attack again. It can also be seen on the graph that the current trend and the upper suppression line constitute an ascending triangle structure, which can also be seen As a potential big cup handle form, this is generally a retracement of the accumulation of force. The goal is still the upper suppression line. The breakthrough of the accumulation will usher in a high-strength pull. Therefore, if the support is not broken, BTC has a chance to be in the support line. It takes time to build the bottom due to shocks. It is recommended to be patient.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

Bitcoin has completed three production halvings in the history of Bitcoin. By studying the relationship between the time of this bull market peaking after each halving and the halving cycle, the approximate time of this bull market peaking is estimated.

In November 2012, BTC halved for the first time, and a bull market was launched later. The price of the currency rose from the halving time to the current bull peak. The range rose as high as 95 times. It took about 368 days. If calculated by Fibonacci time, it is 1 position. At the time of the first halving, the 0 position was born in the BTC creation block. About January 3, 2009, it can be found that this round of bull top time is located near the Fibo point 1.3.

Year-end inventory | 2021BTC year line is about to close and market outlook

In July 2016, the BTC halving for the second time, this round of bull market started, and the halving price rose to the top of this round. The range rose by as much as 30 times. It took about 528 days. It was also calculated using Fibonacci retracement time. In the second round of halving time, the 0 position was at the first halving time. It can be found that the peak time of this round of bull market is at a retracement of 1.4. Compared with the previous round of halving, the price volatility has narrowed and the bull market cycle has been lengthened.

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With the continuous development and maturity of BTC, the duration of the bull market in the entire crypto market is getting longer and longer. From the completion of the halving to the highest point of each round of the bull market, it took one year for the first round and nearly a year for the second round. It is less than 600 days from the third halving. From the perspective of the time period, there is a high probability that this round of bull market has not yet ended. The points 1.3 and 1.4 of the first two rounds are increasing. If this round is 1.5, then the bull market will peak at the end of March and early April, 2022. Of course, history will not simply repeat itself, but it is always surprisingly similar. In the recent round of major adjustments starting with $69,000, BTC’s key support is still working, and the general direction is still a bullish trend. It is recommended to be more patient.

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Since the major adjustment in May this year, the BTC funding rate has been at a low level most of the time. Even if the previous price hits a record high, the funding rate is only a small rise. Compared with the previous historical peak, it is far from the market crazy. Multi-stage, research the relationship between the previous continuous low consolidation of BTC funding rate and subsequent price trends.

At the bottom of the bear market in 2018, BTC stayed in the 3000-4000 U.S. dollar range and oscillated at the bottom for a long time. The funding rate also fluctuated in the low range. After a wave of 6,000 to 3,000 U.S. dollars at the end of 2018, the market sentiment was generally pessimistic, and the bearish sentiment was high. When emotions are brewing to the extreme, there will often be a turning point in the market. Later, BTC rose from $3,000 to $14,000 and peaked. At the beginning of this wave of market rise, before the price rose to $8,000, the funding rate was still in the low range. , Until the price rises to the top area later, the funding rate rises to a high level, which shows that in the early stage of the rise, the price rises and the market is afraid of high sentiment. Then the follow-up market generally continues to rise until it reaches the market frenzy stage.

The trend after the 312 waterfall last year was similar. After the waterfall, the market was panic. BTC started from 3,800 dollars and rose to the position of 10,000 dollars before the waterfall. During this period, the fund rate basically fluctuated at a low level, and it has been pulled up to 12,500 dollars. At the apex of the stage, the funding rate began to rise, but it was far from the market frenzy stage, and a wave of adjustments followed. The price fluctuated in the range of 10,000-12,000 US dollars for 2 months. After fully washing the market, it began to pull up to 65,000 US dollars. The main wave, the initial stage of the pull up, the funding rate has been at a low level, until it reaches the top area, the funding rate rose to a high level, and this time the market peaked and ushered in a mid-term major adjustment.

In the early stage, BTC dropped from 65,000 US dollars to 30,000 US dollars and the area oscillated to a bottom. After 3 months of brewing, it ushered in a wave of explosive rebounds. After this wave of major adjustments, the funding rate has been at a low level throughout the entire process. Even if BTC hits a record high, the funding rate is still at a low level compared to the previous top warning line. The market is far from reaching the top frenzy stage, so it can be predicted It is unlikely that BTC will hit a big peak at present, and the recent adjustment is likely to be a wash, and the overall trend is still up.

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In the bull market in 2013, the BTC market in this round of bull market went two tops. There was a big adjustment in the middle of the year, with an adjustment rate of up to 80%. Many people thought the bull market was over. Later, BTC oversold and rebounded and then fell to the bottom, followed by shocks and rebounds. Complete the V-shaped reversal, and then start a new round of main upswing. The price rose 22 times from the lowest point of this wave of adjustment to the peak of the bull market. This wave of sharply adjusted the low point just stepped back on the 0.5 trend line, and the bull peak in 2011 was also On the 0.5 trend line, BTC rose all the way to the top 1 position of this round after a strong wash, and the price sees the ultimate big top here.

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In the 2017 bull market, it can be found that this round of bull market is similar to the previous 13 years of bull market. It has risen from the lowest point all the way in the early stage, and also ushered in a wave of large adjustments in the middle, and the adjustment low point is also located at the 0.5 retracement line. , The bull top in 2013 was also on the trend line. Later, BTC rose rapidly to continue the bull market trend. In the last stage of the bull market, the price also climbed to near the 1 position and then fell back. The overall trend is basically similar to that of 2013.

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In the current bull market, BTC has started to rise from 3,800 US dollars. During this period, there has been no decent deep adjustment. Later, this wave of 65,000 US dollars fell to 30,000 US dollars. The magnitude is larger than that of 17 years. In 13 years, many people also believed that the bull market was over, but this wave of adjustment lows also found support at the Fibonacci 0.5 trend line. There was also a breakout and backstepping in the previous January, but it was a breakout and an immediate backstepping, and the upside did not expand. , So the adjustment intensity is also average, and it fails to achieve the purpose of strong washing. This time, the effect of pulling up and then killing down is obviously much stronger. It can be seen from the transaction volume, including the recent major adjustment of 69,000 US dollars, the biggest drop is reached 44%, also did not break below the 0.5 trend line support.

In the first two rounds of bull market, BTC adjusted to this area to stop falling and rebound, and then it broke out even more crazy rise. In this round of bull market, BTC is also adjusted to stabilize and bottom in this area, and then it oscillates upwards and hits a new historical high. Therefore, the large adjustment in the early period is a good low-sucking opportunity. The recent adjustment has not broken the 0.5 support line. The previous bull market only needs to stand. The top of the bull market has not fallen below, and the top of the bull market can reach the height of 1 position. At present, there is still a lot of space from the top 1 position. The rising speed of this round of bull market has slowed down, but the general direction is still a long trend.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/year-end-inventory-2021btc-year-line-is-about-to-close-and-market-outlook/
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