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The Metaverse, the world’s leading technology and gaming industry trendsetter, has been getting hotter and hotter lately, with the term reaching an all-time high of 100 on Google Trends in March of this year.
Over the past six months, GameLook has published 65 articles mentioning the concept, and many industry leaders and large companies have expressed their views on the Metaverse or paid attention to it, even giving birth to super unicorns like Roblox with a market cap of over $50 billion.
However, one fact that should not be overlooked is that the Metaverse is still a new thing from the perspective of the mass consumer market, and even the most enthusiastic leaders of the concept are not sure what its future will look like. Recently, Matthew Ball, a well-known overseas technology blogger, has once again taken an in-depth look at the Metaverse, such as Does the Metaverse exist? When will it arrive? What exactly does it need to grow?
The following is the complete content compiled by GameLook.
When did the mobile Internet era begin? Many may count from the first cell phone, while others may feel it started with the official commercialization of the 2G network, as it was the first appearance of digital wireless networks. Others think it starts with the advent of the WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) standard, since it was then that the WAP browser and the ability to allow all phones to access the Internet became available.
Perhaps it can also be counted from the introduction of the BlackBerry 85x series of phones, the first mainstream mobile devices designed for mobile data. Of course most people would probably say that the mobile Internet era started with the iPhone, which came 10 years after the first BlackBerry phone, 8 years after the WAP standard, close to 20 years after the 2G network, and 34 years after the first cell phone call.
Yet after the emergence of the iPhone, it defined the visual design principles, economic systems and business rules of the mobile Internet era.
The history of change in the power era
In fact, the development process of the mobile Internet has never been an air-flip leap. We can identify the creation, testing or application of a particular technology, but it is impossible to know precisely when an era actually began. Technological change requires a great deal of technological change, diversification, and then combination. The electric power revolution, for example, was not a period of steady growth; instead, it consisted of two separate waves of technological, industrial, and process-related change.
The first wave of the electricity revolution began around 1881, when Thomas Edison built power stations in Manhattan and London. Although this was a fast start to the electric age (Edison had invented the electric light bulb only two years before this, and commercialization of electricity had only begun a year earlier), industrialization was slow to take hold.
Thirty years after Edison’s first power station was built, less than 10 percent of mechanical power in the United States was using electricity (two-thirds of which was still generated locally and did not use the grid). But then, a second wave suddenly began. Between 1910 and 1920, more than 50 percent of mechanical power used electricity (nearly two-thirds of which came from independent power units), and by 1929, electricity penetration had reached 78 percent.
In reality, the two waves of the electric revolution did not make much difference to the use of electricity in American industry, but it was in the changes in the design around electricity that occurred.
When electricity was first used in power plants, it was used primarily for lighting or to replace the main power source (steam engine) that preceded the power plant. However, these power plants went straight to electricity without rethinking or replacing the previous infrastructure. Instead, they continued to use a network of bulky gears that were not only cluttered and noisy, but also dangerous.
For example, the previous infrastructure could only be turned all off or all on (thus requiring the same amount of energy to operate a power station as an entire power plant, so often resulting in power outages), making it difficult to meet the demands of a particular job.
But eventually, new technology and knowledge gave factories the reason and ability to redesign electrical terminals, from replacing gears with wires , to installing separate stations with custom and dedicated electric motors for functions such as sewing, cutting, stamping and welding.
The advantages of designing this way are enormous, with more space, more lighting, better air quality and safer equipment for the same power plant. What’s more, individual power plants can also be operated independently (increasing safety while reducing costs and outage times) and can be used for more unique equipment (such as electric socket wrenches).
In addition, plants can define their production areas based on production processes, rather than around bulky equipment, and can even reconfirm those work areas frequently. These two major changes meant that more industries could line up their power plants (a technology that had been around since the 1700s), and plants that already had wires could expand further and more efficiently. In 1913, for example, Henry Ford created the first moveable assembly line, which used electricity and conveyor belts to cut production time, reducing manufacturing time from 12.5 hours to 93 minutes per car while saving electricity. According to historian David Nye, Ford’s famous Highland Park plant was built on the premise that “electric lighting and power should be available everywhere.
Once a few plants began such a transformation, the entire market was forced to catch up, thus bringing more investment and innovation to the electrical infrastructure, equipment and processes. Within a year of the first “assembly line,” Ford was producing more cars than the entire industry combined at the time. By the time the millionth car was built, it had built more than half as many cars as any of its peers.
The “second wave” of electricity penetration did not depend on some vision to achieve a revolutionary leap from Thomas Edison’s core inventions, nor was it driven solely by the growing number of industrial power plants. Rather, it reflects a large number of intrinsically linked innovations scattered across power management, production hardware, manufacturing theory, and many more areas. Some of these innovations are in the hands of a plant manager, others require a room, and still others require a city (to practice), and they all depend on people as well as processes.
Nye says, “Henry Ford was not the first manager to come up with an installation line and then hand over the R&D to his staff. The Highland Park facility was built by managers and engineers who understood most of the manufacturing processes in the U.S. They put their individual experiences together and then created a new approach to manufacturing.”
This process, which was happening simultaneously across the United States at the time, led to “20 years of rapid growth,” which was the highest rate of growth in labor and capital productivity in a century.
The Emergence of the Mobile Internet Era
The mobile Internet era can be viewed in the same way. iPhone feels like the beginning of the mobile Internet because it brought all the elements of what we think of as the “mobile Internet” into a single, minimal viable product that we could touch and love. But the creation and development of the mobile Internet is much more than that.
In fact, even in a narrow sense, we can’t even call the first generation iPhone the beginning of the mobile Internet, but rather the second generation iPhone (iPhone 3G), which was the most upgraded generation, introducing 3G for the first time, making mobile networks truly available, and starting to operate the App Store, which gave mobile networks and smartphones a place to use.
However, neither the 3G network nor the App Store is an innovation or creation of Apple alone. iPhone connects to 3G networks through chips made by Infineon and is networked through standards set by the ITU and GAMA, the latter with the help of wireless network providers like AT&T and companies like Crown City International and American Electric Tower (AMT).
The iPhone has applications to run because of the support of millions of developers, like the large number of different companies that built specific motor units for factories in the 1920s. In addition, the applications are built on a large number of different standards, from KDE to Java, from HTML to Unity, the latter being built or maintained by third-party companies. The App Store’s payment system works because of the digital payment systems provided by major banks, and the iPhone is produced thanks to a large number of other technologies, from Samsung’s CPUs (licensed by ARM licensed by ARM), to accelerometers from STMicroelectronics, Gorilla Glass from Corning, and components from companies such as Broadcom, Wolfson, and NS (National Semiconductor).
All of the above creators and contributors combined to make the iPhone, open the mobile Internet era, and they also defined the path of the mobile Internet.
If we look at the iPhone 12 released in 2020, it would have been impossible for Apple to release it as a second-generation iPhone in 2008, because the company didn’t have that much money at that time. Even if Apple had been able to build a 5G network chip at that time, it would not have had 5G networks available, much less 5G wireless standards to connect those networks, much less a plethora of applications that take full advantage of 5G technology to reduce latency or bandwidth. Even if Apple had built an ARM-style GPU in 2008 (needed more than 10 years before ARM), the game developers that bring in more than two-thirds of the revenue for the App Store don’t have the game engine technology to take full advantage of that capability.
Most of the ecosystem innovation and investment required to make iPhone 12 is outside Apple’s vision (although Apple’s iOS platform is a central enabler of these advances). verizon’s 4G network and the construction of facilities for U.S. electric towers depend on consumer demand and applications such as Spotify, Netflix, and Snapchat for faster and better commercial demand for faster and better wireless networks. Without them, these “4G killer apps” would become slightly faster email. At the same time, better GPUs have made better games possible, and better cameras have led to more powerful photo-sharing services like Instagram. These more powerful pieces of hardware have led to higher levels of engagement, which has led to rapid growth for these companies, which in turn has led to better products, applications and services. Again, we should look at the market as a whole as a driving force, just as the spread of the electric grid brought innovation in electric engines, which then drove the grid in reverse.
We must take into account the role played by the changing capabilities of users. The first generation of the iPhone would have been perfectly fine with removing the Home button at the bottom of the screen instead of waiting until the tenth generation, and the design would have saved more space on the device for higher-quality hardware or a larger battery. However, the role of the Home button at the time was to allow consumers who had not used a touch screen to gradually get used to touch screen operation, just like a slider phone, a dedicated off button allows users to avoid confusion and not accidentally touch other applications, and it took 10 years for consumers to get used to the design without a separate Home button. It’s critical that as time passes, consumers become more familiar with advanced technologies and are therefore better able to adapt to further upgrades, some of which may have existed for years.
Just as consumers are moving to new ideas, so too does the industry need to. Over the past 20 years, virtually every industry has hired, reorganized and repositioned itself around mobile workflows, products or business lines. This shift is as important as any hardware or software innovation, and therefore brings with it counterpart innovation.
What should we think of the Metaverse and when will it emerge?
With the above understanding, let’s look at the Metaverse, which is often mistaken for virtual reality, as narrowly as the mobile Internet is referred to as the iPhone. iPhone is not the mobile Internet, it is the most frequently used consumer hardware and application platform for mobile Internet use.
Sometimes people describe the Metaverse as a virtual user-generated content (UGC) platform, which is like thinking of the Internet as Yahoo, Facebook, or World of Warcraft. Yahoo is an Internet portal/index, Facebook is a UGC-centric social network, and World of Warcraft is an MMO.
There are times when we give it a more complex interpretation, like “the Metaverse is a permanent virtual space that allows identity and assets to persist”, which is somewhat closer to the truth, but still invalid. Because that’s like thinking of the Internet as Verizon, Safari, or HTML, which are just bandwidth providers that connect you to the entire network, web browsers that access web pages, and languages that create web pages and presentations. Of course, the Metaverse is not a game or virtual space that you can linger in (again, the Metaverse isn’t here yet because more of us still congregate in virtual spaces more often or more often).
Instead, we should think of the Metaverse as a successor to the state of the mobile Internet, and while consumers will have the core devices and platforms to interact with the Metaverse, the Metaverse depends on many more factors. There is a reason we don’t refer to Facebook or Google as the Internet; they are both just destinations or ecosystems on or within the Internet, and both require a browser or smartphone to connect to the Web. Similarly, Fortnite or Roblox feel like the Metaverse because they incorporate so many technologies and trends in one experience, like the iPhone, which feels different from anything that came before it, but they alone don’t constitute the Metaverse.
The Metaverse Framework
The purpose of this article is to provide a way of thinking about the emergence of the Metaverse, which I have previously stated is decades away from being at its most ideal (with characteristics such as infinite persistence, ubiquitous synchronization, infinite concurrency, and infinite interaction). However, we can still achieve it through continuous, interconnected and cross-influenced enhancements across a myriad of domains.
It’s all going on today, not just because the Internet and mobile are associated with it, but also because of the vast array of emerging and Metaverse-related technologies, experiences and behaviors.
Personally, I’m tracking the emergence of the Metaverse around 8 core categories, which can also be thought of as a stack.
Hardware: The sale and support of physical technologies and devices used to access, interact with or develop the Metaverse. This includes, but is not limited to, consumer-oriented hardware (such as VR headsets, cell phones, and haptic gloves) and enterprise-grade hardware (tools used to operate or create VR or AR environments, such as industrial cameras, projection and tracking systems, and scanning sensors). These categories do not yet include computing hardware (such as GPUs and servers, and networking hardware, such as fiber optic cables or wireless chipsets).
Network: Persistent, real-time connectivity, high-bandwidth and decentralized data transfer provided by backbone providers, networks, switching centers and routing services between them, and providers that manage the “last mile” of data transfer to consumers.
Compute: Support for Metaverse computing capabilities, physical computing, rendering, data orchestration and synchronization, artificial intelligence, projection, dynamic capture and compilation, and many other diverse and demanding functions.
Virtual Platforms: Immersive digital and 3D simulations, environments and worlds are developed and operated in which users and businesses can explore, create, socialize and participate in a wide variety of experiences (e.g. racing, painting, taking classes, listening to music) and can engage in economic activities. These businesses are different from traditional online experiences and multiplayer games, which are provided by, and are the primary content creators of, the existing large ecosystem developers and content creators that receive the majority of revenue from the corresponding platforms.
Exchange Tools and Standards: Tools, protocols, formats, services, and engines that serve as actual or implemented standards for Metaverse interoperability and facilitate the creation, operation, and continuous improvement. These standards support activities such as rendering, physical simulation and AI, including resource formats and their implantation/output between different experiences, forward compatibility management as well as updates, amount tools and official activities, and information management.
Payments: Support for digital payment processing, platforms and operations, including pure play digital currencies and command channels for financial services (a form of digital currency exchange) such as Bitcoin, Ether, and other blockchain technologies.
Metaverse content, services and resources: the design/creation, sale, secondary sale, security protection and financial management of digital assets, such as virtual goods and currencies, which are connected to user data and identity. This includes all businesses and services built for the Metaverse that are not built into a virtual platform by the platform holder, including content that is built specifically for the Metaverse, independent of the virtual platform.
User Behavior: Visualizing changes in user and business behavior (including consumption and input, time and attention, decisions and capabilities) that are directly related to the Metaverse, or reflect its principles and rules. These behaviors almost always appear to be “trends” when they first emerge, but then have a sustained global social impact.
Here, we are not singling out crypto or blockchain technologies as a category, but rather, they are distributed within computing, exchange tools and standards, and payment methods and other categories.
All of these categories are extremely important to the development of the Metaverse, and in many cases we have a good idea of how these categories will evolve, or at least a critical threshold (e.g., VR resolution and frame rate, or network latency).
But recent developments have alerted us to the importance of not being dogmatic in any particular way about an idealized or fully functional Metaverse.
The Internet has been called the “information superhighway” and the “World Wide Web,” yet neither of these concepts is helpful in the 2010 or 2020 plans, at least not for the world and industry-wide understanding of the Internet. Even if these are correct in more specific terms, they do not reflect the end result.
It’s been obvious for decades that the Internet will have purely digital transactions, lots of UGC content, and online online games, but these don’t predict the emergence of Bitcoin, Shakeology, or Twitch. Even if someone could predict the technology or operating rules of these products and services, the behavior of the corresponding users, the cash model, and the impact they will have on mass society are unpredictable.
That is, we have a good sense of what shaped the Metaverse for individual technologies or behaviors, but it is how they are organized together and what they can bring that is the hardest, most important and socially alarming part, just as the electricity revolution was more than just the amount of electricity generated per square mile in New York in the 1900s.
However, based on previous examples, what we can speculate is that the Metaverse will revolutionize every industry and function, from healthcare to payments, consumer products, entertainment, hourly workers, and beyond. Furthermore, new industries, markets and resources will be created to enable the future of the Metaverse and bring innovation to skill types, careers and certifications, changes that will add up to a value of over a trillion dollars.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/with-a-new-trillion-dollar-windfall-what-does-it-really-take-to-make-the-metaverse-a-reality/
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