Will the ban on the sale of petrol vehicles make capital carnival retail investors happy?

Will the ban on the sale of petrol vehicles make capital carnival retail investors happy?

This article is from the WeChat public account : autocarweekly (ID: autocarweekly) , author: Financial Street Lao Li, the title picture comes from: unsplash

The wave of electrification is faster than we thought, and the effect of electrification to make money is stronger than we thought.

There was a famous proverb before: “Don’t forget the digger of the well”, and now there is a ridicule: “Don’t forget the Nuggets for stocks.” When people talk about the money-making effect of electric racetracks, a stronger impetus is quietly coming.

Last month, Ouyang Minggao proposed to steadily advance the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. Honda announced at the shareholders meeting that it would stop selling fuel vehicles in 2040. Audi also stated at the Berlin Climate Conference that it would phase out the production of internal combustion engines by 2033. Earlier, it was also rumored that BYD would stop selling fuel vehicles in 2022, but the rumors were quickly rejected.

The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is a very sensitive topic. When it comes to the ban on burning, from industry experts to ordinary consumers, everyone has a lot of opinions, and their opinions are “correct.” Today, Lao Li talked with everyone, as a melon-eating crowd, how to objectively treat the ban on fuel vehicles? What do car companies think about the ban on fuel vehicles? Once the sale of fuel vehicles is banned, will capital and retail investors enter the carnival rhythm?

1. There are only correct trends, no correct answers 

When will China launch a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, there is only the right trend, but there is no right answer.

The first ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in China has to be traced back to the China Automotive Industry Development (TEDA) International Forum in September 2017. At that time, Deputy Minister Xin Guobin pointed out that foreign countries have successively released road maps for the ban on fuel vehicles, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also Started related research. The speaker had no intention, and the listener had the heart. The media present keenly caught this “hot spot” topic, and the secondary market also made a lot of noise. At that time, all electrified stocks including BYD had their daily limit.

Lao Li also participated in the hype back then. To be fair, everyone in 2017 would not have expected that the electrification wave would be so fast, let alone that the Ningde era, which was listed the following year, would have a market value of 1 trillion. Over the past three years, Lao Li has two biggest insights, one is to believe in the “power of belief”, and the other is to keep up with the national wind to improve his business.

In China, many things are said that the public is justified and the mother is justified. If you play a word game, the same thing will have a positive effect on the positive side and a negative effect on the negative side. However, from an objective point of view, we must grasp the core problem closely. Between the pros and cons, there is always one who has the upper hand, which is the trend. Therefore, most questions do not have the correct answer, only the correct trend.

The world is evolving, and changers always have the upper hand, whether they succeed or not. Looking at the world, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is the general trend. The government, capital, car companies, experts, and users are all participants in this game. Under the call of experts, the government sets rules. Who can take advantage of the trend? For, whoever is the winner.

The game between major powers is always a resource and financial dispute under the banner of environmental protection. Japan vigorously develops hydrogen energy, and China vigorously develops lithium batteries to get rid of oil constraints. Local governments are also facing different pressures. For the goal of dual carbon, cities such as Beijing will inevitably We must be at the forefront of the deep water zone, even before the developed countries, to achieve regional carbon peaks and carbon neutrality.

In the previous forum, Ouyang Minggao proposed: “In order to achieve carbon peaks in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, it is recommended that new energy vehicles should be gradually replaced by fuel vehicles and a comprehensive ban on the sale of fuel vehicles should be introduced.”

Academician Ouyang speak of an internal combustion engine for a time by some experts “denounce”, ” comments || ban on burning suggestions academician Ouyang lack basic argument ” really highlights in a review, Ouyang teacher also responded to questions about ” Ouyang Ming Gao academicians response” Beijing ban “Public Opinion Questioning on Fuel Vehicles .”

The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is a game between changers and conservatives. There are new energy experts and internal combustion engine experts in the war of words, and the people who eat melons are arguing with each other based on their feelings.

Frankly speaking, at this stage, no one can get a complete advantage, whether they are changers or conservatives, because under China’s current conditions, the complete cessation of production of fuel vehicles by 2030 is an unrealistic goal, even if another 20 years are passed. China’s energy environment is still not suitable for selling only new energy vehicles. A comprehensive ban on sales is unrealistic. On the other hand, only by realizing a regional ban on sales can we promote changes in the external environment .

As the first demonstration zone, Hainan took the lead in announcing the timetable for a total ban on sales, but Beijing is completely different. Beijing is the weather vane. Once the timetable is announced, cities such as Tianjin will follow up soon. Conservatives don’t expect the current year to limit purchases. The same domino effect.

In Lao Li’s view, although conservatives and reformers have been deadlocked for a long time around the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in the past three years, in the dual-carbon wind, Europe and the United States have also increased policy guidance, especially in the European new energy vehicle industry. There is a strong momentum to catch up with China. In order to maintain the industry’s first-mover advantage and achieve carbon peaks, a regional domestic ban on sales may soon come.

In the past few years, the smartest thing is capital. The concept of new energy vehicles has been fired round after round. In 2019, the Tesla industry chain, the whole car company in 2020, and the Ningde era in 2021…

Second, car companies know best to abide by principles

If capital is the smartest in the wave of burning bans, it is the car companies that can fool and be the most disturbed. As the main body of the ban on burning, the major auto companies have really met their heads in the past few years, and the top executives have put their business wisdom to the fullest.

Automobiles have always been the main source of tax revenue for major countries in the world, and they are also a key regulated industry. For major auto companies to live well, they must abide by industry rules. On the one hand, they must learn to cater to government regulatory rules, and on the other, they must learn to cater to market rules. Not leaning.

Following government supervision, we must speak up. Geely is one of the most vocal companies. As early as 2015, it proposed the “Blue Geely Action” and “20200” strategies, and proposed that Geely’s auto sales will reach 2 million by 2020. Ninety percent are new energy vehicles, which are widely appreciated by the leadership. Today, six years later, Great Wall Motors boss Wei has also learned this trick: By 2025, Great Wall Motors will sell 4 million vehicles, 80% of which will be new energy vehicles.

When the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “burning ban” news in 2017, many domestic auto companies responded. State-owned enterprises such as BAIC and Changan took the lead in proposing to stop the sale of fuel vehicles and fully enter the stage of new energy vehicles. It is also a similar scene overseas, accompanied by announcements from various countries. The ban on burning, major international car companies have also announced plans to withdraw fuel vehicles.

In fact, among the many parties involved in the fuel ban, the most reluctant is the major fuel vehicle companies . Reform means business reshaping. The industry barriers established in the past have been broken. Major traditional car companies are facing a comprehensive new energy trend. The risk of being “revolutionary”. Although the government is leading the way, the market is not very accepting of electric vehicles. Although the car companies are loud, they have no actual actions.

It is often outsiders who break the game. With Tesla and Wei Xiaoli entering the electric car market, they have accumulated the technological advantages of electrification and intelligence in just three years, and the market has begun to be cultivated. At this time, each The big car companies have come back to their senses, and the rules are about to change.

Today, traditional car companies are contradictory to the transformation of electrification. They are both reluctant to give up the advantages of the traditional fuel vehicle market, especially the established brands, and they are also worried about the unknown transformation of electrification. However, the major car companies are also very clear in their thinking. , as long as a day market demand, the market will not give up fuel vehicles, internal combustion engines bonus they should “eat dry pressing to do” . Therefore, the so-called ban on combustion by traditional car companies is only to stop selling traditional fuel vehicles. Full electrification does not mean pure electric, but includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric models.

Major car companies have the confidence to dare to fight the concept. Although the European Union has announced that the car’s carbon emissions target by 2030 may be reduced to less than 43g/km, European countries have also introduced banned fuel timetables, but most countries in the world are in agreement. Like China, it does not yet have the conditions to ban burning. Many overseas countries have a lot of noise bans, but there are no obvious practical actions. Therefore, major car companies are also playing word games and time games to cope with the increasingly intense carbon emissions. And environmental protection. 

The industry has been selling the anxiety of “Nokia’s darkest moment”, but the fighting power of fuel vehicle companies still exists. Their real strategy is this: while grabbing the profits of fuel vehicles, while testing new energy sources , they hope to be in the field of electrification. Find the quadratic growth curve. On the one hand, in the global call for carbon neutrality, announcing a burning ban can cater to regulatory rules. On the other hand, users’ recognition of electric vehicles is increasing, and full electric power caters to the market. At this time, a clear burning ban is announced. Table can be described as killing two birds with one stone.

3. Capital will revel, will retail investors be happy?

Capital has always been very concerned about the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. A few days ago, it was reported that BYD would discontinue the production of fuel vehicles. However, BYD quickly rejected the rumors and said that it has no plans to stop production of fuel vehicles. Some time ago, Lao Li went to car companies to investigate. Some companies are reducing R&D investment in internal combustion engines and even stopped system projects. Companies such as Geely and Great Wall are basically All IN energy-saving vehicles and pure electric vehicles.

There is still a large demand for fuel vehicles in the market. As the main source of income, companies will not abandon this market. Considering that they are shifting from a stock market to a shrinking market, they will not invest too much.

Lao Li discussed with some researchers that the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles would be a booster, paving the way for the development of new energy vehicles and pushing back the market to launch good products.

As Academician Ouyang Minggao said, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles must be gradually and orderly, issued earlier and implemented later. This is the most acceptable method for car companies and users. Lao Li and some industry professionals have also made assumptions. The ban on burning may continue such a path: some key domestic cities may declare a ban on burning within three years and implement it within five years, and then some cities will follow up, forming seven or eight burning ban zones across the country.

On the one hand, researchers are concerned about policy changes, and on the other hand, they are studying the impact of the policy on the secondary market. Judging from the current information, everyone is very divided on the direction of the market after the ban.

China’s stock market has its own particularities. A-shares are not produced under a highly developed market economy, but a market economy with Chinese characteristics developed on the basis of a planned economy. The stock market is born out of this economic background and inevitably determines the development of my country’s stock market. In the history of China, policy seems to be a tangible hand that has an important impact on the market. At present, it seems that the tangible hand of policy has indeed boosted the development of A-shares.

In this context, the two viewpoints of the researchers represent two future market upward paths:

The first is that after the promulgation of the ban, the fuel vehicle sector and the new energy vehicle sector have completely broken , and the market’s fuel vehicle sector funds will enter the new energy vehicle sector in turn, and the new energy vehicle sector will continue to rise sharply in the short term. At the same time, Free funds in the market will take the opportunity to enter the market to further highlight the market. The small and medium-sized cap stocks with a market value of 20 billion to 100 billion will likely be pulled out of multiple daily limits, and leading stocks may also be pulled out of daily limits, such as trillions. The daily limit of the Ningde era.

From the perspective of the long-term development of the market, this upward path is not healthy. Generally speaking, a cooling-off period will inevitably come after a large-scale market speculation. After the withdrawal of funds, the market is likely to be all over the place.

Therefore, regardless of whether the new energy vehicle sector has issued a ban on burning from next year to the next year, and whether there is a big market, Lao Li can tell everyone with certainty that the market will never allow major stock market fluctuations, otherwise, it will really be affected by those The jokes of outsiders who are short on new energy and short on China’s economy, the development advantages of new energy vehicles in ten years may also disappear.

Regardless of the management or retail investors, what everyone wants is the A-share slow bull, and for the new energy sector, everyone wants the slow bull. At present, the biggest crisis in the new energy sector is that the market and enterprises cannot always develop at a faster rate than macroeconomic growth or industry growth. If there is no regulation, new energy vehicles will most likely enter a period of stable development in one or two years. After the introduction of the fuel policy, it is like a shot in the arm, which strengthens the market’s confidence in the new energy vehicle sector, and also acts as a booster to promote the slow bullishness of the new energy vehicle sector.

This is the situation that regulators, capital markets, and retail investors are most willing to see. At that time, the new energy vehicle sector is likely to become an evergreen tree, like the A-share pharmaceutical consumption sector, rather than a small wave of three or two years.

Historical development has shown that only a few companies have long-term sustainable competitive advantages, and they all have certain special factors that can prevent competitors from entering, such as some industry monopolies; most companies will be in development for 3 to 10 years Return to the normal rate of return. At present, most of the companies in the A-share new energy vehicle sector are within the range of 0 to 5 years. If natural development is bound to return to the normal rate of return, perhaps the ban on burning will break this historical law. .

For well-known reasons, the recent A-share market is very hot. The stock market has never had an accurate answer. It changes every moment of every day. Only long-term research can resist risks.

This article comes from WeChat public account : autocarweekly (ID: autocarweekly) , author: Lao Li on Financial Street

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