Why is there a 75% chance that the US Bitcoin ETF will be approved in October?

Bitcoin ETFs have always been a topic of concern in the encryption field. It is an extremely difficult battle for investment institutions to obtain the approval of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the country’s first Bitcoin ETF. In the past few months, more and more institutional investors have begun to support Crypto and promote the approval of this type of ETF. However, although various funds have applied for crypto ETFs in the United States, none of the institutions have received regulatory approval. approve.

There are dozens of crypto ETFs awaiting approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), spanning more than eight years. At the same time, Canada and Brazil have approved encrypted ETF products, and U.S. citizens can trade encrypted ETFs through their ROTH accounts .

Recently, before applying for a Bitcoin ETF, investment manager James Seyffart and his colleague Eric Balchunas pointed out that the probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the first U.S. Bitcoin ETF is 75%.

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Two reasons why Bitcoin ETFs may be approved

Two factors contributed to Seyffart’s 75% chance prediction. Mainly the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved mutual funds. Gary Gensler, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, also holds a positive stance on Crypto . Gensler has been commenting on regulation in the field of encryption in the media. He pointed out that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has no intention of banning Crypto because this is the right of Congress, and what the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is doing is merely monitoring.

Seyffard pointed out that Bitcoin ETFs are very similar products to the approved Canadian mutual funds. If the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves a mutual fund, it is likely to approve a Bitcoin ETF.

In addition, Seyffart also pointed out Gensler’s position on encrypted ETFs. Gensler has previously stated that he looks forward to reviewing ETF documents, especially those “bitcoin futures limited to CME.”

Seyffard pointed out on Twitter, “Our prediction is based on two reasons. First: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a mutual fund that has exactly the same logic as the Canadian Bitcoin ETF of ProFunds/Proshares— — BTC FX . So, if they approve mutual funds, why would they reject similar product ETFs?”

At the same time, he added, “The second reason is that Gensler pointed out very clearly about “limited to CME Bitcoin futures” in his comments on August 3. This is the beginning of the Bitcoin ETF competition. I like to read The Fed’s meeting minutes read this information.”

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The Securities and Exchange Commission rejects Ethereum ETF application

Seyffart pointed out that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve the Bitcoin ETF before the end of October. Another compelling argument is that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has forced two Ethereum ETF applications to withdraw, but the regulator has not Request the withdrawal of any Bitcoin ETF . Both VanEck and ProShares were required to withdraw their Ethereum ETFs. The Bitcoin product remains unchanged.

Seyffart also added that Gensler is not opposed to the field of encryption. The US Securities and Exchange Commission issued a report earlier that included language that is beneficial to crypto ETFs.

Seyffart pointed out that the investment manager did not see a reason for the regulator to refuse to use this product, but rudely refused to approve an encrypted ETF. This is simply “spiritual cruelty.”

James Seyffart admitted that he and his colleagues may be too optimistic about the approval of crypto ETFs. Nevertheless, they still believe that regulators will approve some Bitcoin ETFs before the end of this month.

The original text comes from bitcoinist, compiled and compiled by Blockchain Knight, the English copyright belongs to the original author, please contact the compiler for Chinese reprint.

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