On July 26, the three major A-share indexes opened lower and moved lower, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell collectively. According to Wind data, as of Monday’s close, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 2.34%, 2.65%, and 2.84% respectively, showing a sharp correction. The total turnover of the two cities was 1.41 trillion, which also set a new high since July last year. In Shenwan’s first-tier industries, except for non-ferrous metals and national defense and military industries, the other sectors have experienced declines. Among them, the top decliners include pharmaceutical and biological, leisure services, food and beverages, with declines of more than 4%.
Regarding the recent market correction, what do you think of public offering funds as professional institutional investors? Where will the market go in the future? How should the next investment be laid out? Fund companies have released their market views one after another, and the reporter of ” Daily Economic News ” also made a detailed collation, hoping to provide investors with reference.
Behind the crash: due to the superposition of multiple factors
Today the market has undergone a substantial adjustment. The three major A-share indexes all experienced significant declines. The ChiNext index once bottomed out and fell by more than 5%. Nearly 3,300 individual stocks in the two markets fell. Most of the subject stocks fell generally, and the effect of losing money was obvious. The large-scale outflow of funds from the North China reached 12.8 billion today.
For the reasons for the market crash, fund companies have made many interpretations.
China Southern Fund said that overall, today’s adjustments are still caused by market-level factors. The performance of the bond market, commodities, and foreign markets was relatively normal. The industry differentiation in stocks has continued for several days, the market’s long-short sentiment game has continued to ferment, and market volatility has been magnified along with the increase in transaction enthusiasm.
China Asset Management believes that the market decline is mainly due to the following two reasons: First, it is related to the transmission of risk sentiment in overseas markets and funding. In the U.S. stock market last week, due to a sharp drop in the education sector under the influence of policies, worries spread to other Chinese concept industries, resulting in a sharp drop in Chinese concept stocks across the board, which had a greater impact on market sentiment, and Hong Kong stocks also performed weakly. After the market opened today, under the pressure of capital, more northbound capital flowed out, which caused a drag on some products with a large proportion of foreign holdings (such as consumption), and led to a substantial adjustment in the overall market. Secondly, the market has maintained a turbulent pattern since July, which shows that there are differences in funds at the current position.
According to Bosera Funds, the recent market’s apparent correction is mainly due to the following aspects: First, the recent changes in education, Internet and other regulatory policies have brought about sharp fluctuations in the stock prices of China’s concept stocks, which suppressed A-share risk appetite; secondly, the second quarter The position adjustment of public funds has demonstrated its role as a demonstration. The adjustment of positions by leading institutions will attract small and medium-sized institutions to follow suit. Once again, after experiencing the previous rise, the dynamic valuation of stocks of some institutions’ heavy holdings has generally returned to the high level in February this year. Shanghai’s sensitivity to negative information has increased, which corresponds to increased volatility in the effect of making money.
China Merchants Fund also pointed out that the main reasons for the market decline are as follows: 1. The education policy was introduced on weekends and the “double reduction” opinions were implemented, which had a huge impact on the stock prices of education and training institutions. There has been a sharp decline, and market risk appetite has declined. 2. Today’s Hong Kong stock market has suffered a lot of declines. The sharp decline of Internet companies such as Tencent Holdings has caused heavy stocks such as the Hong Kong stock technology and Internet sectors to fall. Previously, Tencent Music was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music. 3. The large outflow of northbound funds today triggered a concentrated release of the callback pressure of the A-share market after the previous rise.
Market outlook view: In the short and medium term, shocks will still be the main tone
Regarding the trend of the market outlook, China Asset Management judges that the index level is still in a period of volatility, and it is likely to remain weak in the next 1 to 2 weeks. However, the market as a whole does not have systemic risks, and it is judged to continue to maintain a volatile market in the second half of the year. In particular, this year’s market is fundamentally different from 2018 in terms of macroeconomics, policy, and corporate profitability. A will not enter the bear market.
It is also based on this that the company judges that the overall style of the second half of the year is still conducive to growth and cycle, and the investment direction of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, semiconductors, military industry and other emerging industries are still very prosperous, although some varieties (such as new energy vehicles) ) Due to crowded short-term transactions of funds, there may be certain fluctuations, but the investment certainty in the second half of the year is still relatively strong.
“In general, any market adjustment is an important opportunity to increase the position of future core assets and future growth leaders.” The company said.
The China Southern Fund said that the essence of the macro policy not to make a sharp turn is tight credit and wide currency, and this state is expected to continue in the second half of the year. For equity assets, as long as there is no risk in liquidity, the possibility of systemic risk in the market is unlikely. The company judges that in the short to medium term, the market will still be based on turbulence, accompanied by a certain structural market. In the medium and long term, we continue to remain optimistic. “The trend of the domestic stock market operating center is rising year by year. Technology, consumption, and medicine are the main tracks of the long-term layout.”
Boshi Fund also pointed out that the A-share market as a whole may not have systemic risks in the future, or will maintain a turbulent trend, and the structural market may continue. Appropriate attention should be paid to high-cost assets with interim performance exceeding expectations.
The China Merchants Fund said that it looks forward to the market outlook and focuses on the follow-up policies and the movement of northbound funds. At the same time, it believes that the global inflation trend still exists. From the perspective of the overall domestic economic environment, some industries are still in a high boom range, and the competitiveness of some industries continues to be prominent. “From a long-term perspective, we will continue to focus on related industries that benefit from the recovery of the macro economy and the improvement in prosperity, and focus on companies with outstanding fundamentals and positive industry trends. At the same time, we will pay attention to the matching degree of valuation and fundamentals. A-share structured investment opportunities.”
Golden Eagle Fund the right to benefit research department policy researcher Jinda Levin, also Yang Gang, general manager of equity research chief economist and market interpreted today, frankly, in the short-term outlook, the A-share market is expected to continue to show weak probability of large shocks. In the industry, the current historical valuation percentile of the new energy, semiconductor and other industries is also at a high level. There is certain pressure for adjustment in the short term, but still has a strong allocation value in the medium term. The current stock selection must pay attention to cost performance, and the growth of the core track may consider the market value of sinking.
(Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only, not as an investment basis. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.)