Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

The latest CFTC CME Bitcoin holdings weekly report (April 13-April 19) released on April 23 shows that the total Bitcoin standard contract holdings ended the previous two-week streak of decline, rebounding from 10632 to 11276 . During the statistical period, the weak posture of Bitcoin in the past period of time has also changed. During the week, the price of Bitcoin did not fall further, but achieved a price rebound of more than $1,000. Will the mainstream market sentiment change as a result? What choices should large institutions that accurately “predict” this round of rebound in the last statistical cycle choose? These are the key points of this weekly report.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Long positions in the largest dealer account fell to 377 from 406, while short positions fell to 1,124 from 1,127. In the latest statistical cycle, the dealer account has carried out a two-way simultaneous reduction of long and short positions, of which the reduction of long orders is significantly larger. In the previous statistical cycle, the “contrarian” long order layout was carried out and the market inflection point was accurately judged. After that, during the latest statistical period, such accounts did not continue to increase their positions, but carried out a relatively clear reduction of long positions when the market had rebounded. It can be seen that such accounts are not optimistic about the prospect of further market growth. . In this environment, although large institutions did not clean air-conditioning warehouses, they have actually expressed a relatively clear bearish attitude, and the institutions are not optimistic about the prospects for further growth in the market outlook.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

The long position of asset management institutions rose from 6110 to 6214, and the short position fell from 807 to 570. The asset management institution conducted a net long position adjustment in the latest statistical cycle. The idea of ​​net air-conditioned positions in the previous two consecutive statistical cycles was abandoned. However, in light of the market performance, the logic of asset management institutions’ position adjustment seems to have returned to the previous “lagging reaction” situation. This kind of net-long position adjustment is less directional for the market outlook.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Leveraged fund long positions fell from 1374 to 1194, and short positions fell from 6654 to 6226 at the same time. Leveraged funds continued to reduce their long and short positions simultaneously in the latest statistical cycle, and the bearish attitude maintained by such accounts in the recent period continued. Compared with the above two types of institutional accounts that are “swinging”, leveraged funds have become a relatively firm type of account in the recent period, and their pessimistic attitude towards the market outlook has not changed significantly due to price fluctuations.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Long positions in large accounts rose to 833 from 656, rebounding from a more than two-year low, while short positions simultaneously rebounded from 230 to 1067. During the latest statistical cycle of large accounts, the two-way simultaneous increase in long and short positions was carried out. The overall position of positions that had just been transferred to net long in the previous statistical cycle reversed again and returned to the status of net short. Large accounts have re-expressed their bearish preference in the latest statistical cycle, which is contrary to the rebound performance of the market in the latest statistical cycle. This choice can be regarded as a reflection of the idea of ​​​​consistent with dealer accounts that they are not optimistic about the prospect of further rebound in the market outlook.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

The long position of retail investors has increased from 1058 to 1155, and the short position has remained unchanged at 786. In the latest statistical period, retail investors have carried out net long positions. In the environment of market rebound, they have increased their positions and made long positions. There is no surprise in the choice of retail investors, and there is nothing worth interpreting. Forward-Looking Information.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Total open interest in Bitcoin micro contracts fell to 20,968 from 21,609.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

The long position of the dealer account has decreased from 2001 to 1804, and the short position has increased from 803 to 1225. The dealer account has a clear net air-conditioning position in the micro contract. This idea is consistent with the selection of this type of account in the standard contract. Further Consolidated the attitude of large institutions to the short-term market bearishness.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

The holdings of asset management institutions are limited and have little change, and they are not expanded by convention.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Leveraged fund long positions increased from 6584 to 7846, short positions decreased from 17947 to 17320, leveraged funds carried out a net long position in micro contracts, this choice and the continued two-way reduction of such accounts in standard contracts. Weak attitudes conflict. However, considering that such accounts still occupy an absolute advantage in the proportion of short positions in micro-contracts, the over-the-top attitude expressed by micro-contracts in the latest statistical period is questionable, and it is not recommended to over-amplify the expression of this over-the-top attitude. , you can continue to pay attention to this.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

The long position of large accounts decreased from 9054 to 7125, and the short position decreased from 1187 to 983. Large accounts have simultaneously reduced their long and short positions in micro contracts. The ratio of long and short positions has not changed much. Judging from the performance of the position adjustment of the simultaneous increase of the empty holdings, the reduction of the micro-contracts is likely to be a risk hedging behavior, and there is no other clear unilateral directional information.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

The long position of retail investors increased from 3674 to 3850, and the short position decreased from 1252 to 1056, which is consistent with the net long position of the standard contract. In the context of the market rebound, the choice of retail investors is no surprise.

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

Weekly report on Bitcoin holdings: Large institutions regain bearish thinking and rebound may be short-lived

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