Valuation for OP: See how much your OP airdrop is worth

This article sorts out the opinions of self-encrypted KOL olimpio.eth on personal social media platforms, and BlockBeats organizes and translates it as follows:

On April 27, Optimism announced that it will launch its ecological Token OP, and announced the Token economics and airdrop plan. This article will try to value OP.

Valuation for OP: See how much your OP airdrop is worth

To estimate OP’s price and airdrop value, we need:

1. Analyze OP’s token economics;

2. Compare it with other protocols and related metrics;

3. Analysis based on 3 valuation expectations: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.

Token Economics

Airdrops account for 19% of the total: in the first phase of the airdrop plan, 5% will be unlocked directly, and the remaining 14% will be allocated by the DAO.

Query the number of airdrops in Phase 1

Core contributors (project teams) account for 19% of the total.

Seed investors accounted for 17% of the total.

Ecosystem Fund 25% of the total: The goal is to grow the Optimism ecosystem through grants, partnerships, incubation of new protocols. Basically a guarantee for the future development of its ecosystem.

Retrospective public goods funds account for 20% of the total:

Buterin once said, “The core principle is simple: what has worked in the past is easier to agree on than what has worked in the future.”

So basically retrospective rewards are those projects that have already contributed to the ecosystem. Like, SNX?

Valuation for OP: See how much your OP airdrop is worth

circulating supply

Total OP supply: 4.29 billion

Initial circulation supply: about 32.5% (emphasis on)

Token contract address: https://optimistic.etherscan.io/token/0x420000000000000000000000000000000000042

Valuation for OP: See how much your OP airdrop is worth

OP valuation

Currently, Optimism’s TVL is $483 million. After the launch of Token, revenue mining activities may occur, so TVL is expected to grow significantly by then. We should expect this.

The Metis and Boba networks have strong similarities with Optimism. They have both released Tokens, and the circulation accounts for about 30% of the total.

Metis has a market cap to TVL ratio of 1.3 and Boba’s 3.27.

This means that Metis has far more “assets under management” than Boba relative to its nominal valuation.

Valuation for OP: See how much your OP airdrop is worth

If Optimism were valued at Metis’ market cap to TVL ratio of 1.3, Optimism’s market cap would be $628 million, implying an FDV (fully diluted valuation) of $1.93 billion. Meanwhile, the price of OP will be $0.45 .

Based on Boda’s market cap to TVL ratio of 3.27, Optimism’s market cap would be $1.58 billion, implying an FDV of $4.86 billion. Meanwhile, the price of the OP will be $1.13 .

Immutable X has a market cap to TVL ratio of 6.72. Doing this, Optimism’s market cap would be $3.25 billion, which translates to $10 billion in FDV. Meanwhile, the price of the OP will be $2.32.

If you compare the AVAX of Avalanche Network, you need to use FDV/TVL to replace the market value/TVL at this time, because there is a large gap between their circulation ratios. AVAX’s FDV/TVL ratio is 4.94, and as such,  Optimism’s market cap will be $780 million, which means $2.4 billion in FDV. Meanwhile, the price of OP will be $0.55.

Valuation under different expectations

Pessimistic expectations:

FDV = $500 million, OP price $0.11.

Neutral expectations:

FDV = $2 billion, OP price $0.46.

Optimistic expectations:

FDV = $5 billion, OP price $1.16.  

Exceeded expectations:

FDV = $20 billion, OP price $4.65.  

Note: AVAX’s current FDV is $40 billion, and even if it beat estimates, the OP is only half of AVAX’s valuation.

Valuation for OP: See how much your OP airdrop is worth

In addition, after the Token is circulated, if there is a rapid growth of TVL due to profitable mining, the OP will also be affected by the market hype, which is not discussed in this article, but it will definitely happen . This paper mainly estimates OP based on the ratio of FDV to TVL. Different valuation methods will produce different results. The words of one family are for reference only.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/valuation-for-op-see-how-much-your-op-airdrop-is-worth/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

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