True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

The concept of the time, the right place, and the harmony of people, the meta-universe concept that had been gaining momentum for a long time, finally broke out.

From the science fiction novel “Avalanche” twenty-nine years ago to the movie “Ready Player One” in 2018, Metaverse is just an ideal world in science fiction works. Although there have been many discussions about parallel worlds, virtual humans, cloud games, digital twins, and the true Internet in recent years, it is still this year that they have systematically become an outlet.

At the beginning of this year, Roblox , the world’s largest multiplayer online creation sandbox game platform , was listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the concept of “Meta Universe”. Its market value exceeded US$40 billion on the first day, which is a 10% increase from last year’s valuation of approximately US$4 billion. Times ; This month, Bytedance’s acquisition of Pico has pushed the popularity of “Meta Universe” to a climax.

Investors and entrepreneurs who have been depressed for more than half a year boiled up like a long drought and rain.

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

Since it naturally has a virtual field and a virtual avatar of the player, the game is the most likely starting field for the meta-universe. This triggered an uptick in the “meta universe concept stocks” in the A-share market, and it is also considered to have given the game industry that is currently experiencing policy problems a step down. But look closely at the companies that have soared, how much of their “meta universe” has been laid out? The answer is unbearable.

Another track that has benefited from the “meta universe” is VR/AR-this track that once fell to the sky after being blown to the sky in 2014 and 2015 is extremely active this year. In addition to BYTE’s acquisition of Pico, NOLO VR completed a US$20 million Series B financing this year; iQiyi Intelligence, which focuses on the VR field, completed a Series B financing of hundreds of millions of yuan; VR technology service provider STEPVR received nearly 100 million yuan in financing; Feidi VR Technology completed a thousand Ten thousand financing…

This is a huge contrast to the situation that almost no one cares about on the VR track two years ago. It seems to completely forget the immature VR technology, poor consumer experience, and imperfect application ecology a few years ago. How Sony, HTC, and Oculus make it Tech fans are disappointed, how LeEco VR and Storm Mirror have broken into the sand. Take a closer look at this wave of VR this year, how much have they improved compared to past technologies?

It’s like a frothy banquet that was publicized in advance. The people who went to the banquet were tacitly aware that it didn’t matter whether the meta universe could be realized or not. The important thing was that there was a story to tell.

“People” need meta universe

The first to grasp this story are the A-share game companies. Zhongqingbao, Baotong Technology, Wanxing Technology, Jiachuang Video, SuperMap Software, Digital Video, Danghong Technology, Goertek, Kunlun Wanwei, Century Huatong, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Perfect World and other companies have been Included in the “meta universe concept stock.”

On September 6, the first A-share listed game company “Zhongqingbao” posted on its official account: “Zhongqingbao is committed to creating a simulated business game that can map players’ inner The experience of “Brewmaster” has been made more real. Under the premise of this general trend of development and the complete technology required to realize the metaverse, “Brewmaster” has a strong tendency to enter the metaverse game.”

In “Master Brewer”, the character travels 100 years ago, using advanced cognition, incarnate as a winery manager, and instruct the company to produce unparalleled wine. Players can also get real baijiu produced by the winery cooperating with Zhongqingbao according to the player’s imagination in reality.

On the following September 7th and September 8th, Zhongqingbao reached its daily limit for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of more than 40%. On September 10, Zhongqingbao closed at 14.81 yuan, an increase of 9.7%. The game has not given a specific timetable for launch, and the combination with Metaverse is not exhaustive. There is no clear answer even whether it is a VR game or a mobile game. Such an increase is unavoidable.

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

Zhongqingbao stock price performance

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

Zhongqingbao Public Account

Another more “virtual” is Tom Cat.

On September 8, when Tom Cat responded to questions related to the concepts of Metaverse and VR on the interactive platform, it said that the company “has a user base for Metaverse product development” and “has established a special working group for the direction of Metaverse… Concept development and project approval of games in the category” “The company invested in Tianji Micromotion has developed a number of VR games.”

Since then, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of concern requesting Tom Cat to supplement the company’s current main business, the relevance of its main products and the concept of Metaverse, the establishment time of the company’s Metaverse special working group, staffing, and core technology mastery. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange also asked Tom Cat to explain whether the company has used interactive easy to respond to hot spots and speculation concepts to cooperate with shareholders to reduce their holdings.

But this did not affect the enthusiasm of the market at all. As of September 10, Tom Cat’s stock price has closed for 5 consecutive trading days, and the total market value has increased from 11.11 billion yuan to 14.907 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of about 3.797 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of about Is 34.18%.

On the evening of September 10th, Tom Cat replied to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s letter of concern. Meta universe is a very ambitious and distant vision. There is a big gap between the company’s current game products and the theoretical Meta universe, which is manifested in immersion and multi-end entry switching. , Economic system, accessibility, scalability, etc. The company’s current product iterations and exploration of new products are still in the early stage. There are great uncertainties in the progress of the project implementation, whether it can achieve the company’s expected results, and whether it can meet the needs of the future market.

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

Tom Cat stock performance

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

Talking Tom Game

In contrast, Century Huatong’s actions appear to be well-founded and “reliable”.

In April of this year, Century Huatong launched the meta-universe game “LiveTopia” on the Roblox platform, the world’s largest meta-universe community. The game was launched less than 5 months ago, with more than 40 million monthly active users, and the number of users on the Roblox platform exceeded 1 Billion, and the accumulated visits exceeded 620 million times.

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

Century Huatong Yuan Universe Game “LiveTopia”

If Zhongqingbao, Century Huatong, Tom Cat and other companies are proactively attacking, then there are some listed companies that are passively “stained”. They do not have meta-universe-related businesses, but they are forced by the stockholders and meta-universe. In other words, it is expected that the business can get involved with the meta universe.

“Secretary Dong, the concept of Meta universe is very popular. Many investors are in the cloud. I don’t know what the concept is. Can the company help explain it, and then what benefits and opportunities does this concept have for the company”—— Investors asked Yinxin Technology on the interactive platform.

Yinxin Technology’s main business is data center IT operation and maintenance services, and then Yinxin Technology awkwardly replied: “Hello, the company’s business currently does not involve the concept of meta universe.”

Golden Horse Amusement, which is mainly engaged in the manufacture of amusement equipment, has also encountered a similar question from investors—”Does the company have products in the direction of Meta Universe, thank you!” The universe is equal to the virtual reality entertainment project?”

Of course, Golden Horse Amusement can only answer awkwardly: “Hello! The company has paid attention to the recent media mentioning the concept of meta universe. This is a fairly large concept. At present, the company has a limited understanding of the concept and needs to strengthen research and understanding. “ On the same day, Jinma Amusement also answered another question: “Does your company have NFT-related business?” “Hello! The company does not have NFT-related business. Thank you!”

The meta universe is no longer the meta universe within the circle, but the meta universe of the “people”.

Resurrection

Roblox was listed as the first Metaverse concept and became the tipping point. This allowed the capital market to see the blood, which opened its mouth in the name of Meta Universe. But there is one thing to say, the development of infrastructure technologies such as VR/AI/cloud games/blockchain is the real driving force of Metaverse. VR, which has been silent for several years, also has an opportunity to “resurrection”.

According to statistics from Essence Securities, the global VR/AR investment and financing scale will reach 24.4 billion yuan in 2020, and 220 investment and financing mergers and acquisitions will occur, and both the scale and the number will increase for three consecutive years.

After several years of “silence”, there have indeed been some changes within the VR industry.

The most obvious is the emergence of several phenomenal VR games such as “Beat Saber” and “Half-Life: Alex”, which have led to a profitable effect in content creation. According to Andrew Boz Bosworth, vice president of Facebook Reality Labs, there are already more than 60 games on the Quest platform that have earned more than $1 million. Among them, “Beat Saber” sold more than 2 million copies and earned more than 60 million U.S. dollars in revenue; “The Walking Dead: Saints and Sinners” earned more than 29 million U.S. dollars in one year.

Domestically, the most representative one is “Contractors” developed by Nanjing Caveman Studio, which sold more than 50,000 copies on Oculus and Steam soon after it went live. Subsequently, “Contractors” landed on the Quest platform at the end of last year, earning $1 million in 45 days of launch. According to the studio’s founder Ding Weihan, the game’s revenue on all platforms has exceeded US$3 million. Although this cannot be compared with domestic mobile games with revenues of hundreds of millions of yuan, it is already a considerable amount of income for the current VR content creation team.

Another big change is the release of Oculus Quest 2, which has begun to truly leverage the rise of consumer VR based on the substantial increase in sales of VR headsets. Although Facebook has not released relevant statistics, its Reality Labs executives It has been said that the sales of Quest 2 in just a few months have surpassed all its predecessors, and it is the sum of all its predecessors. Some media speculate that the total sales volume of Quest 2 is close to 4 million.

According to data from the international data company IDC, global VR headset shipments in the first quarter of this year increased by 52.4% compared to the same period last year. Between 2021-2025, global VR headset shipments are expected to reach about 41.4%. Average annual growth rate.

This trend has also been confirmed in the supply chain. Goertek’s mid-to-high-end VR headset shipments account for more than half of the global total, and customers include big players such as Facebook and Sony. The financial report shows that Goertek’s smart hardware revenue including VR/AR products and smart wearable devices will reach 17.6 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 107%. And its stock price has also hit a record high recently.

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

The global VR head-mounted display equipment predicts that VR is expected to    be high.

“If mobile phones and mobile Internet complement each other, then Yuan Universe and VR equipment are a natural match.” Xiong Wen, CEO of iQiyi Intelligence, who has just released its flagship VR model, said in an interview with 36Kr: “About Yuan Universe in the past few months. There are a lot of discussions in the universe, and different people have different opinions, but among all the different understandings, everyone still has a basic consensus that the meta universe is of the same magnitude as today’s mobile Internet…VR is a technology, and VR plus Shangyuan Universe is a business. From the perspective of valuation, your valuation of a technology is different from valuation of a technology with application scenarios.”

But another VR entrepreneur poured cold water. He told “True Detective”: “This wave of investors watching VR is obviously different from the wave a few years ago. What they need is a grand story. I think it might be. Because the meta universe is so grand that no one dares to miss it, but in fact, do you understand? There are really not many people who understand. They just watch other people cast, but don’t dare not follow. Our VR is relatively close to this matter. It was pushed out.”

MetaApp CEO Hu Sen has a similar view. He believes: “The Metaverse is too hot now, a good thing and a bad thing. The good thing is that more people and money will come in, raise your own flag, and strengthen the vitality of the track, like Ten years ago, the mobile Internet; the bad thing is that the heat is too early, and it will be a little bit fragrant. If the bubble gets bigger and bigger, objectively speaking, you have to do more bubbles. This is a lose-lose situation. .”

“In the past three years, there are relatively few large-scale To C products that have been independently born without standing in line and have a certain scale. Funds and talents are looking for possible big growth points.” Hu Sen said frankly.

A more pessimistic view comes from Dave Karpf, a media scholar at George Washington University-” The idea of ​​the meta universe will not fail, it will only be “failed” because this is just a repetition of Google Glass on a larger scale. “He believes that the popularity of VR lasted for a while, but it quickly fell silent. This is mainly a cost issue. On the other hand, VR software content is not enough to support enough user needs. So VR has been popular several times in the past, but Nor can it be popularized.

In other words, this is a very money-burning track-Evercore ISI Investment Company estimates that the loss of Facebook’s virtual reality business in 2021 will be between $5.4-6.4 billion. Can the enthusiasm of the market persist until the day when VR really takes off?

And whether VR is the entrance to the meta-universe, there is still no definite conclusion.

To be sure, the technology of the meta universe is by no means only relying on VR. Equipment and products solve non-fragmentation propositions, AI helps content creation, blockchain helps asset precipitation, and even requires a brain-computer interface. “Meta Universe Company” needs to have strong capabilities on the underlying engine. This is also the most challenging place at present. The “new world” is shaped enough to be plasticine, and the operation method is more friendly, but it is not purely foolish to make the virtual world. Create a “real” world.

“In fact, Metaverse is still too early, but the good thing is that Metaverse will not be as early as the previous AR and VR markets. The products on the market are still far from this concept, the degree of commercialization is low, and the content is not rich enough. It makes you immersed in it.” Zhou Wei, founding managing partner of Chuangshi Partners Capital, said: “So, who can first establish a set of underlying technologies that can support the development of many years in the future, and then retain users through operations, so that Users can be immersed in it and continue to create content. Whoever does it first will succeed first, and choosing to intervene from now on will play an important role in shaping this environment.”

True and false Metaverse: a frothy feast that was publicized in advance

Six supporting technologies of the meta universe

Image source: “Meta Universe Pass”

According to Roblox’s official statement, a true meta-universe product should have eight elements:

Identity: You have a virtual identity, whether or not it is related to a real identity.

Friends: You have friends in the metaverse, you can socialize, whether you know them in reality or not.

Immersion: You can be immersed in the meta-universe experience, ignoring everything else.

Low latency: Everything in the meta-universe happens synchronously, without asynchrony or latency.

Diversity: Metaverse provides a variety of rich content, including gameplay, props, and art materials.

Anywhere: You can use any device to log in to Metaverse and immerse yourself in it anytime, anywhere.

Economic system: Like any complex large-scale game, Metaverse should have its own economic system.

Civilization: The meta universe should be a virtual civilization.

The reason why it is so “fascinating” can be understood as people’s abstract description of the way users will survive in the heavy Internet environment in the future. If the Internet of Things and digitization are the Internet looking for the “body”, then the metaverse can be said to be the sublimation of the spirit of the Internet.

This wave of meta-universe craze led by investors who were active in the mobile Internet industry in the past is more like a blunt new growth point. When the Internet has no incremental and no new stories to tell, Metaverse is the lucky one. What is the real meta universe? How far are we from it? These are not so important.

The real meta universe may have nothing to do with “grassroot entrepreneurs”. Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Unity, Tencent , ByteDance…This is a bigger game than the mobile Internet. Naturally, it needs more power to mobilize organizations in all aspects. Of course, it also needs longer time and patience. .

 

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/true-and-false-meta-universe-a-frothy-feast-that-was-publicized-in-advance/
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