The “Wealth Code” in the first month of 2022 You need to pay attention to these big events

The crypto market enters 2022 in a warm and cold atmosphere. Looking back at the market in 2021, it can be said that half is flame and half is ice. How enthusiastic the first half of the year was, and how quiet the second half was, and the turbulence and decline for more than 40 consecutive days at the end of the year continued to consume the patience of investors. However, “the extreme of life is death, and the extreme of death is life”, and grass is sprouting under the ice and snow in winter.

How will the crypto market go in the first month of 2022? Not only will it affect the mood of the entire market, it may also set the tone for the entire year of 2022. Although we cannot predict the future, we can prepare in advance by paying attention to scheduled events and find our own investment ideas and wealth password.

It is a good habit for investors to check the economic calendar regularly and formulate countermeasures in advance. Because in addition to the uncertain “black swan” event that will cause a big sudden change in the market, the scheduled event may also make the market crazy.

We have taken stock of all the major financial events that will occur in the first quarter of 2022 (January-March) for you. These events may affect the ups and downs of the entire market to varying degrees, and even the basis of the entire bull market. You are welcome to join the official Ouyi community (OK565611) to receive the first quarter economic calendar of the crypto market in 2022, and get this information in advance so that you can better formulate investment strategies.

In January in history, what was the rate of return for Bitcoin?

Before we officially start the article, let’s review it first: What was the rate of return of Bitcoin in January in history?

We pulled the Bitcoin data of the Ouyi platform and the third-party data website tradingview, and carried out screening statistics. The results are as follows:

The "Wealth Code" in the first month of 2022 You need to pay attention to these big events

January’s return rate in Bitcoin history (production: Europe Yi Academy)

As can be seen from the above chart, in January in history, Bitcoin has had more negative returns as a whole. In 11 years, the number of close ups and downs was 5:6, and the average rate of return was 6.36%. The overall performance Poor.

However, with the development of Bitcoin and the crypto market to this day, no matter the industry ecology, the world’s perception, etc., have been very different. What will happen in the first month of 2022, let us wait and see.

January 3-6, manufacturing and service industries in China, the United States, and Europe

PMI data released

On January 3, the European Union announced the final December manufacturing PMI data in the Eurozone. Data show that the final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in December was 58, which was lower than the previous value of 58.4 and the lowest level since February. Although it continues to slow down, it still remains above the 50.0 mark, and the manufacturing industry continues to expand.

On January 4, China announced the December Caixin manufacturing PMI data, which recorded 53. Although it was 1.9% lower than the 10-year high in November, it was still significantly higher than the prosperity and decline line, indicating that the economic recovery is still continuing after the epidemic. ; On the same day, the United States announced that the PMI of the ISM manufacturing industry in December was 58.7, the lowest since January 2021, which was less than the expected 60. The analysis believes that it is mainly due to the drop in delivery time and the sharp drop in the price payment index.

On January 5, the European Union will announce the final value of PMI for the service industry in December; on January 6, China and the United States will respectively announce the PMI data of the Caixin service industry in December and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI data in December.

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) covers areas such as production and distribution, manufacturing and non-manufacturing. The PMI index and its business reports have become an important evaluation index of the world’s economic operations and a barometer of changes in the world economy.

As the three poles of the world economy, China, the United States, and the European Union account for more than 60% of the global GDP (data for 2020), which can be said to represent the development of the world economy to a large extent. The PMI data of the three companies intuitively shows the hot and cold world economic development, which is a data indicator that must be paid attention to.

At present, the three PMI data indicators all have a weakening trend, which may allow them to formulate active monetary and financial policies, which will benefit the crypto market as a whole.

On January 7, U.S. non-agricultural data was released,

Will “Non-agricultural Night” continue to be wild?

At 09:30 pm, January 7 (Friday), the U.S. Department of Labor will announce the December non-agricultural employment report.

The last time U.S. non-agricultural data was released (December 3), the performance was much lower than expected, coupled with the impact of the Omi Keron variant virus, triggered a sharp drop in the global investment market, including the crypto market, of which Bitcoin fell sharply 28%, and other digital assets have fallen by more than 30%, and the entire market has become “red” across the board.

Every time the non-agricultural index is announced, it will cause a major earthquake in the global financial market. How will the market respond to this Friday’s “non-agricultural night”?

The current market expects that the United States will create 374,000 non-agricultural jobs in December, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.2%. However, according to relevant data, the current employment willingness is still low, the labor participation rate is 1.5% lower than before the epidemic, and there is greater differentiation among different groups of people. This is not the “broad and sufficient” employment defined by the Federal Reserve.

Now the Fed and the U.S. economy are facing this problem: in the case of soaring inflation, employment growth remains at a “tepid level”, which may make the Fed a dilemma, because premature tightening of monetary policy may constitute economic development Risks, and tightening monetary policy may fundamentally shake the foundation of the bull market in the crypto market.

Simply put, this Friday’s non-agricultural data announcement may set the tone for the development of the U.S. economy and the subsequent Fed’s meeting on interest rates. Not only should we pay attention to the short-term impact on the crypto market, we also need to pay attention to the long-term follow-up. Influence.

On January 7, the initial value of the Eurozone CPI annual rate was announced.

Raising interest rates is no longer “foreseeable”?

On January 7, the initial value of the December CPI annual rate in the euro zone will be announced.

According to the latest forecast released by the European Central Bank in December last year, the average inflation rate in 2022 will be 3.2%, which is much higher than the 1.7% expected in September last year. However, the European Central Bank predicts that the inflation rate will fall to 1.8% in 2023 and 2024, which is lower than the central bank’s 2% target. However, during the policy meeting in December last year, several policymakers already questioned the ECB’s forecast, believing that the ECB underestimated the risk of maintaining price growth above the 2% target.

As inflation risks become more intense, even the “Ace Pigeon” European Central Bank can no longer insist that rate hikes are “foreseeable”, and even claim that they will raise interest rates as early as 2022. Previously, in December 2021, the European Central Bank had already taken a small step in tightening its policies, announcing that it would end the 1.85 trillion euro emergency bond purchase program (PEPP) in March this year, and the speed of PEPP purchases in the first quarter will also be Slow down.

In addition, around January 20 (the specific time is subject to the official announcement), the US CPI data will also be released. CPI data will have a significant impact on the monetary and fiscal policies of various countries, thereby affecting all investment markets including the crypto market. Some researchers believe that the correlation between Bitcoin and CPI within the scope of short-term and long-term investment has a medium to strong positive correlation. As shown below:

The "Wealth Code" in the first month of 2022 You need to pay attention to these big events

Source: Planet Daily

If the Eurozone and U.S. CPI data are higher than expected, it may accelerate the Fed and the European Central Bank to end QE and initiate interest rate hikes, which will have a huge impact on the crypto market.

On January 27, the Fed’s first interest rate meeting in 2022

Will cause an “earthquake” in the global market?

On January 27, Beijing time, the Fed’s first interest rate meeting in 2022 will be held as scheduled, and will announce the corresponding interest rate resolution and reduce the scale of bond purchases.

The U.S. economy is entering 2022 with inflation at a high level in the past 40 years. The mainstream consensus in the market now is that the Fed will raise interest rates within this year to curb inflation and prevent economic overheating.

If according to the announcement of the last interest rate meeting in 2021 (December 15), the monthly bond purchase rate of 30 billion U.S. dollars will be reduced, then bond purchases will end in March this year, and then the Fed will begin to consider raising interest rates. The latest bitmap suggests that interest rates will be raised three times this year, as shown in the following figure:

The "Wealth Code" in the first month of 2022 You need to pay attention to these big events

The Fed’s 2022 calendar (Source: Straight Flush)

Of course, the Fed’s interest rate dot chart has always been known for its variability, and current expectations are not equivalent to actual actions this year. However, it needs to be emphasized that the Fed’s vote committee will rotate at its first meeting this year (replace the four local Fed chairpersons from the previous year). group”. However, the bigger question will be who will fill the vacancies for the three directors. The market believes that US President Biden will nominate three more “dovish” directors to balance monetary policy.

In any case, on January 27th, the Fed’s first interest rate meeting in 2022 is a matter of concern. This is the heaviest macroeconomic event in January and it can be said that it will affect the entire market. Bear pattern.

On January 31, the Spring Festival holiday began,

Will there be a “spring catastrophe”?

January 31 is New Year’s Eve and the first day of the 7-day Spring Festival holiday. During the long holiday, almost all traditional financial institutions in China will be closed, and the A shares and Hong Kong stocks will also be closed, which may affect the market’s ability to take risks. .

Due to the huge impact of the “Chinese New Year Effect”, the crypto market will also be affected. The current opinions on the existence of Bitcoin’s “Chinese New Year effect” are mainly divided into two opposing camps: one side believes that Bitcoin prices have risen steadily during the Spring Festival for many years and can enter the market; the other side believes that there will be a significant decline before the Spring Festival and need to leave the market.

We pulled the Bitcoin data from the Ouyi platform and the third-party data website QKL123, and found that starting from 2012, the Bitcoin price has risen and fallen 7:3 during the Spring Festival, and the year of rise has an absolute advantage.

However, the second point of view is also supported by data. About 15-20 days before the Spring Festival, the price of Bitcoin has fallen more than it has risen. This may be the time when the Chinese people began to prepare funds for the New Year before the Spring Festival. However, due to the entry of institutional investors represented by Wall Street institutions this year, it is unknown whether the law is still valid.

In fact, compared with Bitcoin’s “Chinese New Year effect” viewpoint, the overall environment and the occurrence of representative major events of the previous year have a greater impact on Bitcoin price trends.

Concluding remarks

As we wrote in the original article “Bitcoin’s “American Stockization”,” will the bull-bear border gradually blur? “As mentioned in the article, as institutions enter the market and mainstream capital enters the market, digital assets represented by Bitcoin have become mainstream financial products. Not only have they begun to form synergy with the global capital market represented by U.S. stocks, but also More and more showing a similar form.

Moreover, the crypto market is inherently a global market. As the entire market grows, its relationship with the traditional world is getting closer and closer, and the corresponding impact is getting greater and greater. We have taken stock of all major financial events that will occur in the first quarter of 2022 (January-March) for you. These events may affect the ups and downs of the entire market to varying degrees, and even the basis of the entire bull market. Welcome Into the group to receive.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

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