The Shanghai property market in the past six months: home buyers get together to fight for new projects, investors stare at online red disks, and part of the lottery crowd is “aging”

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From the hot performance of the property market at the beginning of the year, to the successive launch of the “Shanghai Ten” and “Shanghai Seven” regulatory policies, three batches of new housing listings were concentrated, and the new “dual centralized” land supply regulations were superimposed. The Shanghai property market in the first half of the year can be described as Ups and downs.

According to data from Shanghai Lianjia , in the first half of the year, there were a total of 148 real estate subscriptions in Shanghai, with a total of 109 listings opened, and 47,000 houses were supplied. Among them, 92 real estates had a notarized lottery, and the number of subscribers participating in the lottery was nearly 46,000. It is worth noting that there is a clear trend of “aging” among the lottery crowds participating in the online red plate of Shizhong District.

Entering the second half of the year, what kind of trend will the Shanghai property market show? Recently, a reporter from ” Daily Economic News ” visited many popular real estates in Shanghai and interviewed many buyers, brokers and developers, trying to objectively present the real situation of the Shanghai property market to readers.

1

46,000 people participated in the “new fight”

It is worth noting that there were 92 lottery real estates in Shanghai in the first half of the year, and nearly 46,000 people participated in the lottery. Among them, 4 real estates showed the grand event of “thousand people shaking”. For example, the first batch of the second phase of China Merchants Hongqiao Mansion launched 335 units, and the number of subscribers was close to 3,000; the 320 units launched by Gemdale Hongyue Bay attracted 1179 subscriptions.

The reporter learned from the investigation that in the first half of the year, Shanghai’s many new online celebrities with high cost performance had a particularly high threshold for points. For example, Fuxing Longyu, a high-end star real estate in Huangpu District, scored 112.8 points for subscribed customers, making it the first real estate project in Shanghai that is closest to full marks. Disassemble this point and restore the number of months of social security, which corresponds to 220 months of social security payment (the upper limit of Shanghai social security payment is 221 months).

Li Hua, a real estate consultant for an Internet celebrity disk in Minhang District, told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that the New Deal stimulated buyers to “raise points” through various methods. “Some divorce and remarry, and some transfer all real estate under their own name to their parents. , Some let their parents transfer the property to themselves, some let their parents recognize the money…”

Li Hua has a client who transferred all the houses in his family to his own name before the points system came out, and prepared to let his father buy a house through lottery. But I never thought that after the points system came out, because my father had retired for a long time, his points were only more than 40, which could not reach the threshold.

Although the market has always paid a lot of attention to hot real estate, these hot lottery crowds are showing an “aging” trend.

Taking Li Hua’s project as an example, “high-scoring customers” accounted for 30% of subscribed customers, with an average age of over 45 years old, and all of them were middle-aged and elderly people. “As long as the basic score reaches 60 points, plus the original social security points, people with a high age base will basically be able to become high-scoring players in the subscription army.”

The Shanghai property market in the past six months: home buyers get together to fight for new projects, investors stare at online red disks, and part of the lottery crowd is "aging"

Image source of the recognition and financing of Sunac Tangzhen project: every photo by reporter Wu Ruofan

However, the same situation is not seen in the suburbs.

Real estate consultant Zhang Lei’s Sunac Financial Future City project is located in Tangzhen, Shanghai’s Waihuan District. It is mainly based on Zhangjiang and Lujiazui’s customer base (about 70%), and is generally dominated by the first set, with a total price range of 5 million. ~10 million yuan.

Zhang Lei told the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that the project customer group is generally relatively young (25-35 years old), characterized by high education + high income, but the points are generally not high. For them, there is no longer any hope for the houses in the city.

“New properties in the urban area, especially in the core areas, have too few real estate and high thresholds. They are all competing with people in their 40s and 50s. Compared with the old natives , young people can be thrown out of the social security period. It’s on the street.” Zhang Lei said, these young high-income groups can only focus on the outer ring area, where the “Huai Piao” are relatively competitive.

2

Can you make a difference of 12 million when you buy a new house?

The root cause of the boom in the new house market is “a second-hand house hanging upside down.” The high prices of second-hand houses have caused buyers to get together to “make new ones.”

Although Li Hua’s Minhang District is not a particularly core place in Shanghai, since the fourth quarter of last year, the total price of second-hand houses in the surrounding area has risen by 25%. The price of houses after 2005 has risen to around 110,000 yuan per square meter. Even for the old houses in the 1990s, some quotations have caught up with the prices of new houses in the same area.

Li Hua told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that his real estate attracted many buyers in the first half of the year, and many people asked about points and prices through various channels every day. “It seems that everyone no longer pays attention to the house type, location, school district, supporting facilities and other hardware, and only cares about the price difference.”

In the high-end star market “Fuxing Long Yu” in Huangpu District, the reporter learned that the listed price of second-hand houses in the first phase of the project has exceeded 200,000 yuan per square meter, while the average price of new houses on sale in the project is 135,800 yuan per square meter. Square meters. Based on the main unit of 194 square meters in the project, buyers can earn more than 12 million yuan without including taxes and fees.

Due to the Huangpu District where Fuxing Longyu is located, only one project has been newly launched since 2021, and the annual supply of new houses in the region has never exceeded 1,200 units in the past four years. This is evident in the anxiety of potential buyers.

The reporter also learned from the surrounding areas of the Ruihong New Town project in Hongkou District that the price of second-hand houses in this area has risen to 150,000-160,000 per square meter in half a year. Even at this price, the owner is not in a hurry to sell, and it is obvious that the wisher is hooked.

A housing agency near Ruihong New Town told reporters that the unit price of a second-hand river view house in Ruihong High District has reached 170,000 yuan per square meter. The unit price of Sunac Qingyun No. 1 new disk, which is not far away from it, is 105,000 yuan per square meter.

The Shanghai property market in the past six months: home buyers get together to fight for new projects, investors stare at online red disks, and part of the lottery crowd is "aging"

Photo source of the sales center of Ruihong New City Project in Hongkou District: Photo by reporter Wu Ruofan

Jiayu Hua Ting High Zone Landscape House was quoted at 18 million yuan per set a year ago, and now the houses on the second floor are all listed at 28 million yuan per set.

“After the New Deal, second-hand housing is actually rising. From April to now, the second-hand housing in our sector has increased by 20%~30%, and some luxury houses have even increased by 50%.”

Manager Zhang, a real estate consultant of Shanghai Centaline, told reporters that in some popular areas of Shanghai, second-hand houses basically rose by about 5% every month. “If you can buy one for self-occupation, now is a good time to start, but if you choose second-hand housing, you can wait.”

3

Investors stare at online red disks

In the first half of the year, the “Shanghai Seven Articles” and “Shanghai Ten Articles” were introduced, and three batches of new houses were listed in batches, which really cooled the Shanghai property market.

“After months of trial and exploration, everyone has adapted to the New Deal.” Li Hua told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that the number of customers in his real estate has not changed, of which investment customers account for about 20%. People have not weakened their determination to enter the market.

“This kind of speculators are basically family units, and they may have as few as three or four suites, or as many as four or five sets. This type of group of people cannot guard the real estate in the city center and go to the outer ring to buy a just-needed one. Li Hua told reporters that their real desire to buy a new house is to take advantage of this wave of upside-down second-hand housing prices. Therefore, after the Shanghai points system new policy came out, their focus was mainly on price. Investors with high points pay more attention to the price difference.

Ruihong Seaview One, located on Xingang Road, Hongkou District, has opened its ninth phase. A total of 210 houses have been launched this time. The number of credits at the opening reached 767, and the final number of finalists was 273, which triggered the points system.

Wang Na, the sales person in charge of Ruihong Jingyi No.1, told reporters that customers are now more emotional about buying houses, especially new properties that are more cost-effective. In the first half of the year, there were 3 batches of centralized supply listings in Shanghai, but the proportion of real estate in the city center was very low, and the number of listings launched each time was very small.

People with high points, if they have the strength, will definitely choose the place with absolute price difference. This is why the downtown market is more popular.

“Shanghai high-density policies, and compared to other local government policies force of greater, an increase of market stability.” 58 Live off real estate division president of Institute of Zhang Bo told the “Daily News” reporter, but There is a loophole in Shanghai’s points policy. If the house under your hand is transferred out, you can get high points in the market, and you have money and high points. On the contrary, those who buy a house of 5 to 7 million yuan have no more operating space. Only by plugging this loophole can the market’s popularity be further reduced.

4

Tighter approval of mortgages

It is also worth mentioning that since the end of June, reporters from the “Daily Economic News” have learned that some banks in Shanghai have slowed down their mortgage approval and review process.

“In fact, the amount of (house loans) we accepted is 200 million to 300 million yuan. These orders can only be postponed. It may be postponed to October, which is equivalent to indirect suspension of loans.” Credit from a branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Shanghai Branch The officer told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that although the bank where he worked would not stop lending, now every acceptance is under control, and the monthly acceptance amount is only 75 million yuan.

According to the reporter’s understanding, at present , many banks in Shanghai, including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank and Bank of Shanghai , have significantly tightened their mortgage qualification review.

“Some banks have not released the first-hand housing payment in March, and can only postpone it. When the loan amount exceeds the acceptance amount, the order pressure will gradually ease.” A person from a Shanghai bank who did not want to be named told reporters. , Bank debt business has to face the assessment of superiors at the end of the quarter, mid-year, and end of the year, and it has become a common practice to face tight capital and liquidity.

“The tightening of housing loans began to increase significantly in the second half of June, mainly reflected in first-hand housing loans, which was affected to a certain extent by the bank’s mid-year assessment.” The above-mentioned banker said that it is expected that housing loans in various places will gradually return to normal starting in July. But now the mortgage bills are squeezed, and some acceptances will be delayed for several months.

Zhang Bo told reporters that the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a “two red line” policy at the end of last year, dividing financial institutions into five tiers, and for each tier of banks, an upper limit on the proportion of real estate loans and an upper limit on the proportion of personal housing loans have been set. “Through the overall level of total financing for the real estate industry, we will conduct comprehensive and precise supervision of financing, while effectively stabilizing the real estate market, and better guaranteeing the compliance and efficiency of mortgage funds.”

According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, in June this year, the mainstream first home loan interest rate in 72 key cities was 5.52%, and the second set interest rate was 5.77%, which were 5 and 4 basis points higher than in May; the average loan period was extended to 50 days.

“The total amount of mortgage applications this year is obviously higher than that of the same period last year because demand is growing. This year, the housing market in some cities is hot. Although housing prices are controlled to a certain extent , transactions are still increasing.” Zhang Bo said that this means that even if housing loans are released To ease the lag, but cannot shake the demand for the property market itself, and cannot reduce the transaction volume. After the bottleneck period, the scale of housing loans may recover soon.

Lianjia data shows that in 2020, there will be a total of 80,286 new houses sold in Shanghai, and 294,329 second-hand houses will be sold, more than three times that of new houses. Compared with the average monthly transaction volume of 15,000 sets of second-hand housing from 2017 to 2019, the transaction level is still high. Shanghai Centaline Real Estate data shows that as of June 28, Shanghai has also sold 167,881 second-hand houses this year, which has reached 57% of last year’s transaction volume.

Public data shows that in the first half of the year, Shanghai has concentrated on supply of 125 new disks. It is expected that in the second half of the year, Shanghai will have at least 120 new disks waiting to enter the market. Many industry insiders told reporters that there is still room for a decline in the Shanghai market. In addition to financial policies, it also depends on the strength of subsequent market policies and the supply of new houses.

5

Frequent regulatory policies

In fact, starting from the second half of 2020, especially at the end of the year, Shanghai has continued to report news of “new craze”, “house grabbing”, and “price jumps by owners”, and the housing market has remained hot. To this end, Shanghai has successively introduced new policies to regulate the property market.

On the evening of January 21, Shanghai issued the “Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market” (Shanghai Ten Articles). For couples who purchase commercial housing within 3 years of their divorce, the number of housing units owned by them is calculated based on the total number of households before the divorce. At the same time, we will improve the housing selection system for new commercial housing notarization and give priority to satisfying the demand for self-occupied home purchases of “house-less families”. After that, on February 6, the new rules on the new house lottery points system were officially implemented.

On March 3, the Shanghai Housing Management Bureau promulgated the “Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of the Real Estate Market in This Municipality” (Shanghai Seven Articles), implementing housing sales restrictions, and for newly-built commercial housing purchased in accordance with the priority purchase policy, sign and record on the housing purchase contract website for 5 years. Can only be transferred after years. 

At the same time, Shanghai also introduced a measure for newly-built commercial housing-centralized bulk supply. From March to May, Shanghai launched a total of 125 new commercial housing projects in three batches, with a total area of ​​4.024 million square meters and a total of 36,696 units, distributed in various areas of Shanghai.

In addition, with the implementation of the 22-city “dual centralized” land supply policy, Shanghai’s first batch of centralized land supply ended on June 25, and 55 housing plots totaled 85.2 billion yuan. Among them, the average premium rate of 31 operating plots involving ordinary commercial housing was only 5.46%. On the whole, the first batch of concentrated land auctions in Shanghai this year are relatively stable, relatively “balanced” in terms of regional distribution, transaction prices, and land acquisition and real estate companies, and neither overheating nor overcooling has occurred.

“Shanghai’s property market has entered a relatively stable period in the second quarter, and the current policy is still playing a role. I believe the market outlook will be more stable. The high point in the first quarter of this year is hard to see.” Shanghai Centaline Real Estate analyst Lu Wenxi believes that with the Shanghai residential market Entering the “second half”, the control policies will maintain high pressure and precise control. The prices of new projects entering the market in the second half of the year will not rise significantly. The transaction volume of second-hand housing will change first, and the transaction volume in some hotspots will decline, and the temperature will be significantly higher than that of new housing.

(At the request of the interviewee, Li Hua, Zhang Lei, and Wang Na are all pseudonyms in the article)

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