Yesterday I shared with you some of my views on the latest Fed resolution, and there were many readers who left comments at the end of the article, which shows that everyone is very concerned about this macro policy, and I guess it is also because everyone recognizes that the impact of this policy on the digital currency market is very big.
How big the impact of this policy will be in my opinion at the moment just need to focus on whether it will last until the end of this year or early next year.
Because my earlier prediction for this bull market is probably until the beginning of next year at the latest. As long as the macro environment remains unchanged during this period of time, the biggest factor affecting the bull market can be determined, leaving the possibility of determining the market trend is the ecological changes within the circle and the flow of funds outside the circle.
The first is that the company’s business will be in the process of developing a new product. Therefore, there are not many hot spots that can sustain fermentation.
As for the flow of money outside of the circle, what I’ve seen so far is that MicroStrategy is continuing to sell stocks to buy bitcoin, which means MicroStrategy thinks the future of digital currencies will be better than U.S. stocks; in addition to that, the company is also preparing to issue junk bonds to raise money to buy bitcoin, which is typical of using cheap interest rates to borrow money to buy assets.
Borrowing cheap money in a big way like MicroStrategy is an opportunity that many institutional investors won’t miss today. So I’m sure there are more institutional investors like MicroStrategy in the market than just this one, and they’ll come in later, just for now, everyone is still watching from the sidelines, waiting for the hot spots to explode.
Also, from the first half, neither bitcoin nor ethereum has shown the usual bull market highs of exuberance that I think is rare not only in the digital currency market, but in all traditional investment markets.
So I still believe in the second half. But it’s hard to estimate how far the market will go in the second half, and how much space there is.
The market has come to this price, if you still want to enter the investors, then put the limited funds in bitcoin and ethereum, buy bitcoin and ethereum is relatively speaking at this stage the least risk, the most guaranteed return.
There is still a steady stream of new projects coming on the market, and many of them are DeFi related. But in my opinion this does not indicate that DeFi is still hot, as most of these new projects are imitations of existing headline projects, and they are not even micro-innovations.
This is mainly because the DeFi space already has mature open source code to draw from, so it’s not hard to replicate a project, so there are speculative teams using marketing tactics to market these knockoff tokens. However, these imitations are only hot for a while and hardly sustainable in the long run. In the second half of the bull market, there may be a short-lived climax brought by the atmosphere, but it is more likely that there will not even be a short-lived climax and it will just pass.
It is recommended that general investors should not pay too much attention to these imitation plates.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/the-second-half-of-the-bull-market-how-to-layout/
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