01 the trend
Short-term (intraday): up
Mid-term (more than two weeks): Rise
02 chat hotspot
Today the market is still in a state of panic, the market is not good, and all kinds of bad news have come out. Just a search, ICICI Bank of India requires customers to remit overseas funds not to invest in cryptocurrency. The Bank of Thailand warns the public not to use it. Cryptocurrency is used for payment, the Ukrainian Security Agency clears the crypto mines, South Korean authorities investigate illegal foreign exchange transactions using cryptocurrency “kimchi premium”, British regulators crack down on misleading cryptocurrency advertisements, and the British banking giant Santander bans Binance payments and other negative news. Although these negative news are not the direct cause of the downturn in the market, it is undeniable that bullish sentiment and market confidence are being destroyed by various regulations. This is also the currency circle I have been talking about. On the cruel side, because you are in an extremely uncertain market, and even often walk on the edge of the law, so if you don’t have a strong belief and deep understanding, then I don’t recommend mixing in this market. Everyone is suitable for crypto investment. If you are troubled by all kinds of bad news, the best solution is to leave.
In addition to the unfavorable policies released by the various countries above, Steve Hank, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said in an article that El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender puts the country at risk of sanctions. Although this is a family statement, the United States has always liked to be nosy, before the legalization of Bitcoin has not grown to a certain scale, the United States and other big countries may indeed stifle it in the cradle, but this may be very Something far away, everyone just watch it.
This afternoon my country’s central bank announced that it will lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on July 15, and is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds. This is definitely not a small benefit for the domestic financial market, which is equivalent to giving The loosening of banks has caused excess reserves to flow out to provide financial support for entities. Of course, some of them will flow into the financial market. However, for encrypted assets, they are currently on the cusp of rectifying OTC. Now it is very difficult for new users to deposit funds. The bank will even call you directly to remind you of the risk, and many new leeks have been directly dismissed. This is why the encryption market is still indifferent despite the RRR cut today.
Finally, let’s talk about grayscale. I saw a set of data today. GBTC unlocked 139,000 from mid-April to mid-June this year. These two months are exactly the two months of the Bitcoin crash, although the unlocking and price There is no definitive statement about the relationship, but 140,000 GBTC will also be unlocked in July. Although this part of GBTC will not directly affect the spot market, once the negative premium is too high, it will definitely be the part Institutions sell spot bitcoins and buy more GBTC for arbitrage, so unlocking may affect the price of the currency to a certain extent. This is why I did not recommend that you continue to fill your positions. The probability of a true bottom in July is not small. Everyone can be prepared.
03 Reading Quotes
BTC: From the perspective of the disk, Bitcoin can’t actually fall anywhere. This is what I have been emphasizing in the morning paper, but what is helpless is that there is still a sharp sword hanging on the investment. Nobody will enter the market blindly. Everyone. You can only wait, so this has also led to the trend of the entire board as a shock. Therefore, before the sword of bad news is down, it is best not to fill your position, and to leave yourself some bullets for bargaining.
The 4-hour level is mainly volatile. Yesterday I said that if it falls below 32000, it may reach near 31300. From the current trend, the 4-hour level has been supported near 32000 for 5 consecutive times. If you look at it according to the target, then this The position is a good time to buy, if it falls below 32,000 and leaves the market unconditionally.
The volatile market should be bought when it goes down, and sell when it goes up, but the point is to emphasize not to play contracts, otherwise you will lose miserably. Don’t ask me why I lose because of human nature.
ETH: The short-term negative decline is still continuing. Although there is an expectation of a fork, it is difficult to have an independent market in this situation. However, the medium and long-term ETH still has great potential and the spot can continue to be held.
BNB : Binance took the initiative to fight against the Chinese people yesterday. It is not ruled out that China will join the ranks of siege and suppress Binance in the future. BNB is currently very risky.
LINK: Linked to the market, there is little probability of independent market in the short term, and it can continue to be used in the medium and long term.
DOGE: Musk said that DOGE costs are lower than BTC and ETH. Isn’t that nonsense? The short-term rise is all supported by Musk fans, and it is difficult to have independent market in the short term.
ICP: ICP performed well today, barely reaching the level of mainstream currency, but as the saying goes, the seed round will not be released, so it is best not to buy it.
FLOW: The correction is too deep, and you can open a position again after falling.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/the-market-is-downcast-and-the-bearishness-continues-how-long-can-you-last/
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