The future of light and darkness: meditations on digital currency

Currency, digital currency, encrypted currency, this is a group of currency concepts from large to small. Why do humans need money? Because each country needs to use currency to unify the people’s concept of wealth, and then they can drive the people to work to obtain wealth for survival and enjoyment. Driven by the currency’s identity and wealth effect, society can move towards a unified development direction. To be strong. As far as individuals are concerned, the share of the currency earned in the total plate of national currency represents their own degree of wealth, that is, the individual’s share of total social wealth and product distribution.

Therefore, currency actually represents the power of the country and society to distribute wealth, and currency is a tool for the distribution of wealth and survival materials. Why does inflation happen? This means that in the face of the crisis, the country has reduced the distribution of everyone’s wealth by issuing additional currencies, and took away a portion of the wealth to solve the crisis. However, although the state has this power, it cannot be abused, because the currency depends on the state’s credit guarantee. In a well-run country, the economic enthusiasm of producers cannot be frustrated, nor can the enthusiasm of devotees be frustrated. If it is frustrated, it would be mismanagement, damage the credibility of the country, and ultimately endanger the monetary system. Therefore, a benign national currency system cannot bind non-performing assets.

Human nature is imperfect, people tend to tend to low-level tastes rather than high-level tastes. The existence of the country itself reflects human nature, so there is no perfect country. From the above perspective, no country fully follows the rules of national credit in the use of the currency system, and abuse will always occur. Especially under the US global financial hegemony system.

The U.S. financial hegemony system obviously follows the above-mentioned logic in this article, trying to use currency to manipulate and distribute global wealth, and use dollar inflation to harvest the wealth created by global producers. The acting force brings the reaction force, which leads to the emergence of a new historical trend:

The first is the instinctive need of capitalist society to continue life, leading to the development of the low-end ** industry and the great development of the virtual digital economy. All western developed countries have a characteristic, that is, the tertiary industry occupies the leading role in GDP, because the development of manufacturing has very obvious institutional shackles, and the limitation of technological level makes material production have its cost rigidity, and the scale effect makes socialized mass production. Under the conditions of capitalism, there is an output boundary, which cannot expand indefinitely. Therefore, the production of survival materials for the whole society is limited. It can only be “production according to profit” rather than “production according to demand”, resulting in the material needs of most people. Obtaining low-end satisfaction led to the inflation of the monetary system exceeding the growth of material production, and the advancement of science and technology made employment a fatal problem for the country, which first led to the development of the tertiary industry, and the service industry was used to solve the employment of the low-end population. , Use the financial industry to allocate the wealth of the whole society in currency, and harvest the wealth that is largely idle in the society that cannot be invested in subsistence projects. With the advancement of science and technology, the birth of a larger tertiary industry-the virtual digital economy, is essentially a further development of the tertiary industry.

Has the tertiary industry, including the virtual digital economy, created greater wealth? From the perspective of the whole society, the answer to most developments is no. A small number of tertiary industries have improved the material efficiency of social production and increased labor productivity. However, a large number of tertiary industries did not actually contribute to the improvement of social survival material. This has led to the current basic pattern. The prices of social survival materials are very high for the rich to fully enjoy, the poor barely obtain the amount of materials that can survive, and the nominal wealth of society is largely concentrated in the tertiary industry and the virtual digital economy. Even in the field of socially necessary survival materials, capitalists still harvest more social wealth in the name of “brand”. In the development of the tertiary industry, capitalism maintains a fragile wealth distribution pattern. However, the currency system has repeatedly failed and Growing malpractice has spawned more and more public dissatisfaction.

Although there are many drawbacks, this strategy of focusing on the United States has actually been imitated by many countries. For example, in our country, similar to the “financial assets = wealth” in the United States, real estate is used to form the effect of “real estate = wealth”, thereby harvesting the surplus wealth of social non-productive projects.

The second is de-dollarization and the birth of digital currencies. De-dollarization is the counterattack and self-rescue of powerful countries in the US dollar hegemony system. The digital currency is the self-help of the dissatisfied people in the capitalist system. The history of Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention of Bitcoin is a clear proof.

The system determines the future. Every system uses currency to harvest social surplus wealth. The question is where is the harvested wealth invested? The United States is in a cycle. The harvested wealth strengthens financial hegemony and harvests more wealth. The possible negative side is that if the harvest fails, it may enter a negative cycle. The wealth that China has harvested has been invested in long-term survival projects, large-scale development of the western region, large-scale national infrastructure construction, and large-scale economic coordination. Of course, only part of it can be consumed, so the financialization of industries similar to the United States is also developing in depth. Europe is mostly harvested by the United States, and the part of the harvest itself cannot be put into new socialized production. Therefore, in the twilight years, half alive, except for Germany, looking at other European countries, it feels like “late Qing”. Come.

Obviously, the development of CBDC central bank digital currency is the digitization of traditional legal currency, and it is the answer to the development of the virtual digital society at the national level. The development of cryptocurrencies corresponds to the “autonomy” attempts of capitalists and the people. If the future progresses in an orderly manner, then cryptocurrencies must still be niche and will not pose much challenge to CBDC. And if the future is disorderly and chaotic, then cryptocurrency will inevitably become popular in the world, because fiat currency has limited national credit in the era of disorder and chaos. From the perspective of the currency circle, if the nearest future is “Golden Thirty Years”, then you don’t need to expect cryptocurrencies to become a global currency, you can only live in the shadows. And if it is “Thirty Years of Chaos”, then Bitcoin will inevitably reach the top of the global currency. Of course, the actual situation is probably somewhere in between.

In our current virtual digital currency development, two paths have emerged, with different choices between China and the United States.

The choice of the United States is very natural, it is the continuation of its “financial nation”, the development of the overall blockchain, almost no currency is not issued, this is “industrial financialization”, the industry developed under the control of finance from the beginning; and Defi The development of “financial industrialization” is an attempt to create a new global financial operation model.

In contrast, the domestic superstructure has obviously undergone major ideological adjustments related to development strategies. What are socialists concerned about? It is the realization of material production to meet “on-demand production, on-demand distribution” super-strong collaboration and socialized mass production to increase output and reduce costs, it is the rapid improvement of material production technology and efficiency, and it is the fairness of distribution. With the development of capitalism to this day, under the radiation of artificial intelligence, big data and other technologies, the major flaw revealed is that capital divides the productive forces, and individual private enterprises act according to their own interests, and efficiently produce in various fields. The participants are confined to individual private enterprises, unable to achieve strong collaboration. The enlightenment of the development of blockchain to socialists is the emergence of a powerful tool that can realize the strong collaboration and socialized mass production of the whole society. Blockchain’s machine trust, trusted storage, and disintermediation of peer-to-peer transactions can allow producers to achieve high-efficiency and strong collaboration.

Under this circumstance, the issuance of coins is out of date. The issuance of coins will repeat the old pattern of capital control and segmentation of efficient producers, and will cut off all kinds of strong collaborations. The future of production relations is already visible. For example, efficiency in the past was based on the division of labor in society. The finer the division of labor in society, the higher the efficiency. But in the future of artificial intelligence, the division of labor may become nonsense. AI will organize and manage the most efficient production system based on big data. This system requires strong collaboration among producers rather than division of labor. Who can achieve such a tomorrow, who is the future global hegemon. What socialists want is a “good” virtual digital industry. What is a “good”? Those that can create new technologies that contribute to material production efficiency, promote the development of new technologies, and achieve more effective social management in a certain field are “good”, while those that do not contribute to actual progress in production, such as financial games, Naturally it is “bad”.

History is spiraling. The development of digital economy and blockchain has accelerated the spiral return of socialism to “new planned economy” and “new public ownership” because there are material and technological conditions to realize ideals and theories. Who loses and who wins? History will tell us the answer.

A lot of deeper thinking is not suitable for public publication. That’s it for this article.


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