The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

Products and consumers are becoming mature at the same time. As long as the product is good enough, consumers are willing to vote with money.

Looking back at the first half of 2021, there are many unexpected things in the domestic auto market.

The market share of self-owned brands has returned to a high level, the sales of North and South Volkswagen have been hit hard, the share of Japanese brands has unexpectedly fallen, the new energy market has increased by more than 200%, and cross-border car manufacturing has been surging…

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

The latest data from the China Automobile Association shows that from January to June, my country’s automobile production and sales completed 12.569 million and 12.891 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% and 25.6%.

It is true that the double-digit year-on-year growth rate is based on the market environment under the influence of the epidemic last year, but the main theme of the growth is worthy of recognition. Even compared with the same period in 2019, this year’s automobile production and sales have achieved year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 4.4%. .

However, although the cumulative growth of production and sales in the first half of the year highlights the prosperous scene of the auto market, a closer look shows that there is an undercurrent of the overall upturn in the auto market in the first half of the year.

First, the chip crisis has led to changes in the auto market, with joint ventures and independent shares declining; second, the sales of new energy in the first half of the year have been the same as the sales of the whole year of 2019, but the performance of joint venture brands is still lagging; third, new cars are manufactured Power brands are gradually gaining a foothold in the high-end market segments and competing with joint ventures and luxury brands; fourthly, after technology companies compete first to enter the market, the differentiated business model around intelligent extension has attracted controversy.

The share of self-owned brands returns to 40%: the same share, different heights

From the data point of view, compared with the previous year, this year’s independent brands can be said to have fought a turnaround.

In the first half of 2020, the cumulative sales of self-owned brand passenger vehicles fell by 29.0% year-on-year to 2.854 million units, and the market share fell to 36.3%, a 3.4 % drop compared with the same period last year . Market share fell to its lowest level since 2009.

In the first half of 2021, driven by leading independent brands such as Geely , BYD , Changan, Hongqi, Chery, and GAC E’an, the market share of domestic independent brand passenger vehicles quickly returned.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in June this year, the cumulative sales of Chinese automobile brand passenger vehicles were 691,000, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and the market share increased by 10.5%. The cumulative sales from January to June were 4.198 million, a year-on-year increase of 46.8%. The market share was 42%, an increase of 5.7%.

The analysis believes that the overall increase in the market share of Chinese auto brands is inseparable from the strong resilience of the industry chain of Chinese auto brands at the beginning, which effectively overcomes the pressure of chip shortages. At the same time, the fierce competitive environment is forcing the optimization of production and channel resources in the Chinese auto market, helping Chinese auto brands to move up.

On the whole, the top independent brands are still Geely, Changan, Haval , BYD, Chery and other leading independent brands. However, from the perspective of total car rankings, the only independent brands in the top ten in terms of cumulative sales from January to June 2020 are Geely and Changan, while this year there are Geely, Changan, Haval, and BYD.

In fact, it is not the first time that China’s independent brands have exceeded 40%, but this time is different.

If it is said that the previous self-owned brands to compete with joint ventures relied on the SUV segment market dividends and the cost-effective advantages of “cheap and high distribution”, then the return of market share can be seen as the result of the upward efforts of its own product brands.

On the one hand, independent brands empower their products through high-end and intelligentization.

Among them, the Xingyue model launched by Geely has also reached the ceiling of 200,000 yuan. At the same time, the sales of its high-end brand Lynk & Co in June was 17,077 units, an increase of about 29% year-on-year; the price of the best-selling tank brand under Great Wall has also exceeded 20. Wan Daguan; Changan Automobile has launched a more intelligent UNI series based on its original cost-effective advantages.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

On the other hand, self-owned brands have obvious leading advantages in electrification.

Among them, BYD, as a rare hybrid + pure electric car company with a diversified development route in the market, with the introduction of DM-i super hybrid and blade battery technology, its hybrid model Qin PLUS DM-i single model sold 9,269 in June. As the first new flagship model equipped with blade batteries, the pure electric model Han EV sold as much as 8386 vehicles in June.

At the same time, “Wei Xiaoli”, the most talked about new car-making force, has three car brands covering the high-end market of 200,000 to 600,000 yuan, and the market sales are growing strongly month by month, and its market performance is impressive.

It should be said that the same is more than 40% of the market share, but this time the return of market share represents different competitiveness and different market prospects.

Self-owned brands represented by Geely, Changan, Haval, BYD, and even new car-making power brands, through the impact of high-end, to a certain extent, blocked the joint venture brand’s downward strategy. In addition, independent brands are also expanding overseas markets. In the first half of the year, China’s auto export volume increased by 1.1 times to 828,000 vehicles.

However, the differentiation of Chinese auto brands is becoming more and more obvious nowadays, the stronger the stronger, the weaker the weaker. Chinese auto companies such as Brilliance, Lifan, Zotye, and Cheetah are in bankruptcy.

Joint venture brand “chip” shortage: Japan’s top three decline, German department suffers heavy losses

The pattern of joint venture brands is basically the same as usual. FAW-Volkswagen’s sales are still strong. SAIC Volkswagen followed, and the Japanese “three strong” steadily grew… However, the chip crisis has added uncertainty to the joint venture brands.

Speaking of the sales of independent brands, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: “The industry chain of independent brand leading enterprises has strong resilience and effectively overcomes the pressure of chip shortages.”

In other words, in addition to the market recognition of its own products, the rebound in the share of independent brands is also related to the “difficult delivery” of joint venture brands due to the chip crisis.

During the three years in which the Chinese auto market continued to decline, Japanese brands as a whole maintained growth against the trend. However, under the chip crisis, the top three Japanese companies have shown varying degrees of decline.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

In terms of cumulative sales from January to June, FAW Toyota’s cumulative sales were 399,300 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, GAC Toyota’s cumulative sales were 425,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%, and Guangqi Honda’s cumulative sales were 365,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16%. Dongfeng Honda Cumulative sales were 421,900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, and Dongfeng Nissan’s cumulative sales were 569,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%.

However, judging from the monthly sales in June, Honda fell 17%, Toyota fell 2.9%, and Nissan fell 16.3%.

Chip problems are the main reason for the decline in sales.

A Honda employee said: “From July, we started to have out of stock. We hope to solve the chip problem within the third quarter.” It is understood that it takes nearly two months to pick up the more popular models of Honda. .

Nissan said: “In the short term, the company will still be affected by uncertainties such as the new crown epidemic, the shortage of raw materials in the industry, and fierce market competition.” Along with the decline in sales, the market share of Japanese cars in June this year fell by 2.5% year-on-year. twenty three%.

It is not only Japanese brands that have damaged the market due to the “core” shortage, but other mainstream joint venture brands have also declined.

Data show that the sales of mainstream joint venture OEMs in June fell by 18% year-on-year, 7% month-on-month, and 22% lower than in June 2019.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

Among them, the joint venture brands most affected by chips or German brands.

From January to June, FAW-Volkswagen sold 1,025,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%. Ranked first in the sales volume list of domestic automakers in the first half of the year. However, wholesale sales in June fell 32% year-on-year to 121,000 vehicles.

SAIC Volkswagen’s cumulative sales in the first half of the year were 713,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, ranking second. However, wholesale sales of 65,000 vehicles were achieved in June, a sharp decline of 54.6% year-on-year.

Volkswagen Group (China) CEO Feng Sihan said: “In the second quarter, the automotive industry is facing the challenge of a shortage of semiconductor chips, which has caused our production capacity to fail to meet the massive needs of customers.”

In addition, in response to the increasing sales gap between North and South Volkswagen, Feng Sihan said that this is also related to the shortage of chips. He said: “SAIC Volkswagen is more affected by the shortage of chips because their cars are basically from the MQB platform.” It is reported that, In the first half of the year, the shortage of chips restricted SAIC Volkswagen’s production capacity of more than 50%.

Extraordinary performance of the new energy market: new car companies take advantage of the momentum to catch up with joint ventures and luxury

In the first half of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.215 million and 1.206 million, respectively, a year-on-year increase of two times, which has been the same as the level of the whole year of 2019.

Automobile Association of analysis, the first half of my country’s new energy recovery of the automotive market better than expected, mainly due to three factors: First, consumer acceptance and demand of new energy vehicles in lifting; the second is the “double points “The goal is to force car companies to provide more and better products to the market; third, the continuous strengthening of the construction of charging infrastructure has promoted the acceleration of the marketization of new energy vehicles.

In about four years, the market share of new energy has increased from 1% to 10%, and the 10-fold expansion rate has created opportunities for independent brands.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

Judging from the data released by the Association, the current pattern of the new energy vehicle market is clearly differentiated. In June, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 14%. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of independent brands reached 28%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury vehicles was 14%. The performance of mainstream joint venture brands was lagging behind, and the penetration of new energy vehicles was The rate is only 2%.

In the sales ranking for the first half of this year, no matter whether it is the ranking of car companies or the ranking of models, mainstream joint venture brands are not seen in the top ten rankings.

In contrast to the independent brand camp, five traditional car companies, namely BYD, Great Wall, Chery, SAIC, and GAC, have made efforts one after another, and their products even occupy the forefront of the list.

Among them, BYD’s sales in June reached 40,116 units, a year-on-year increase of 207%. The ultra-luxury brand Tesla ranked first among new energy car companies; SAIC-GM-Wuling had 30,479 units, Great Wall Motors had 10,791 units, and SAIC’s passenger cars had 10,493 units. GAC Ian has 8,536 units.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

At the same time, the rapid expansion of the share of new power auto companies is also a highlight of the auto market in the first half of this year.

From the data point of view, new forces accounted for 31% of the market share of new energy vehicles from January to June 2021, close to one-third.

In June of this year, Weilai Automobile delivered 8,083 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 116.1%. From January to June, the delivery volume of Weilai Automobile reached 41,1956, which was basically the same as the full-year delivery volume in 2020; the delivery volume of Ideal Automobile in June reached 7713, a year-on-year increase of 320%, and the delivery volume reached 30,154 in the first half . Xiaopeng Motors delivered 6,565 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 617%, and the total delivery volume reached 30,738 in the first half of the year.

Unlike most other self-owned brands, the new car-making forces have been put on the outerwear of luxury brands due to high-end prices and product positioning. Compared with quantity, their achievements in quality should be valued and affirmed.

Take the ideal car as an example. At present, the ideal ONE model has broken the blockade of the joint venture brand and surpassed the SAIC Volkswagen Touron in the medium and large SUV market, defending the first place in this segment.

What’s more exciting, Ideal ONE has also given Chinese auto brands a place in the luxury car online rankings. In June of this year, the selling price of Ideal ONE “300,000+” not only exceeded the average selling price of many well-known luxury brands, but also became the tenth place in the domestic luxury brand sales list.

In addition, in May of this year, Ideal Auto released the 2021 Ideal ONE. Not only did the price of the new car not drop due to industry competition, but it increased by 10,000. However, this has not affected its sales. The number of new orders in a single month in June has exceeded 10,000 units.

Judging from the rise of new car-making forces and the market performance of the ideal ONE where prices do not fall but increase, this represents a trend of domestic automobile consumption to some extent. At present, domestic automobile products continue to mature while consumers are The perception of the domestic car industry is also changing. As long as the product is good enough, consumers are willing to vote with money.

Cross-border car building is surging, and the three major factions are in disagreement?

Perhaps it is because new car manufacturers such as Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng have established a firm foothold in the market, and it is difficult for several technology companies to restrain the urge to build cars.

Since the beginning of this year, a new round of cross-border carmaking has suddenly come. Baidu , Foxconn, Didi, Xiaomi , 360, Huolala , Meizu , Skyworth, Midea and other “outsiders” have confirmed or reported that they want to open the door of the automobile industry.

Although they all say “making cars”, the purpose of domestic ICT companies entering the auto industry is not the same. Che Yunjun roughly divides them into “three major factions.” Empowerers: Huawei , OPPO, 360, Horizon, etc.; carmakers: Xiaomi, Baidu, etc.; autonomous driving: Baidu, Xiaoma Zhixing, etc.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

First, the “enabling group”, such companies as represented by Huawei, are more inclined to help automakers build good cars.

Huawei has always emphasized that it has no intention of participating in the ranks of physical car manufacturing, but instead relies on the core technology (information and communication technology) in the ICT field in its hands to serve car companies. Through Huawei’s smart driving solution, auto companies’ partners can not only “build a good car” but also “build a good car”, leading the era of intelligent connected cars.

Zhou Hongyi, the founder of 360 Group, announced that the 360 ​​Group will strategically invest in Nezha Automobile. After completing all investments, it will become the second largest shareholder of Nezha Automobile. However, according to Zhou Hongyi’s previous statement, car building may not be included in the future cooperation between the two parties.

Second, the “car-making faction”, companies represented by Baidu and Xiaomi, personally end up making cars.

Baidu, through an open, complete and safe platform-Apollo, on the one hand, helps partners quickly build a set of their own autonomous driving system. On the other hand, from the original concentration on the research and development of Baidu’s Apollo autonomous driving platform, it has developed to take into account its own intelligent vehicle linkage and vehicle-road system. From the “troika” + car manufacturing business, it focuses on the automotive business, covering infrastructure-complete vehicles-all travel Process.

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

And Xiaomi, which announced car manufacturing in March of this year, has recently begun to recruit carmakers on a large scale.

According to Xiaomi’s official website, a total of 120 jobs have been released recently, with the location in Shanghai, mostly in the vehicle sector. Although Xiaomi has not yet announced a detailed car building plan, Xiaomi has taken the first step from the recent high-paying recruitment to the frequent actions of investing in autonomous driving companies and accelerating the formation of complete vehicles and autonomous driving teams. .

The third is the “autonomous driving group.”

Baidu Apollo also cooperated with Jihu to launch a new generation of Robotaxi model Apollo Moon whose cost has been reduced to 480,000.

Baidu and Jihu said that in the next three years, 1,000 shared unmanned vehicles are expected to be deployed to cover more cities and regions. Earlier, Baidu Apollo publicly stated that it will carry out shared unmanned vehicles in Beijing (newly added Tongzhou area), Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing and other cities.

It is worth noting that although these three factions have not been built for a long time, the industry is currently divided on different business models.

Although the “enabling faction” slogans helping companies build good cars, the OEMs did not accept everything.

In the cooperation project between Huawei and BAIC, the two parties have joined forces with the Polar Fox Alpha S Huawei HI version. Although it is the OEM BAIC that actually makes the car, with the blessing of Huawei’s full-stack autonomous driving solution, BAIC seems to have become a foil for Huawei.

Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC , publicly stated that he could not accept it: “It is difficult for SAIC to accept a single supplier to provide us with an overall solution. This will become “he is the soul and I am the body”, which we cannot accept.”

The first half of the auto market resumption: the thriving appearance lurks underneath

The analysis believes that, on the one hand, OEMs have gradually realized the position of autonomous driving in the future automobile competition, and the whole car group that focuses on hardware manufacturing is not willing to become the “body” that carries the “soul” of others; on the other hand, in the “software” Under the wave of “defining cars”, earning money by selling software is becoming a reality. If the software is provided by technology companies, it may mean that the OEM has to give up this part of the revenue.

According to Xiaopeng Automobile’s previous financial report for the first quarter of 2021, Xiaopeng announced its revenue in the automotive software business: in 2020, its autopilot system XPILOT3.0 software package revenue was 50 million, and it reached 3,000 in the first quarter of this year. Million, more than half of last year’s annual income.

Che Yun summary

On the whole, the domestic auto market has recovered in the first half of this year, but the dark tide is surging. Looking at the second half, several trends are worth paying attention to.

If the chip problem of the joint venture can be alleviated, can independent brands still maintain market share? Can joint ventures accelerate in the field of new energy? Can new car companies represented by “Wei Xiaoli” maintain high growth? Around intelligence, who is more likely to become the new species of travel in the future?

These questions will have clearer answers in the second half of this year.

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