From the primitive society where all the hair and blood is drunk to the intelligent society where all things are connected, with the development of technology and human needs for a better life, productivity has developed rapidly. As we all know, productivity is composed of labor materials, labor objects and laborers. Among them, people are the most active factor of productivity, and technology is the most critical factor to promote the change of productivity.
From ancient times to the present, the development history of human productivity can be divided into “four forces”. The first is the age of manpower, mainly relying on man’s own labor to engage in production activities, and the level of productivity is completely limited by the size of man’s own physical strength; the second is the age of animal power, in which humans learned to use animals and livestock to engage in productive labor, and began to Liberation of part of manpower; the third is the power era. Through the scientific and technological revolution, human beings convert various energy sources such as steam and electricity into power to drive machines. Machines are used instead of manpower to achieve large-scale production and a major breakthrough in productivity. Now, the development of human productivity Entering the fourth era – the era of computing power, computing power based on chips and software platforms has changed human production methods, living patterns and scientific research paradigms. Computing power has increasingly become the foundation of scientific and technological progress and economic and social development. It represents the development level of human intelligence.
The development stage of human productivity and the first law of computing power
In the age of manpower, starting from the ancient Stone Age, the productivity was mainly manpower, and human beings mainly relied on their own physical labor and some auxiliary stone tools to engage in production activities. The productivity of the whole society mainly depends on the size of the population participating in manual labor and the physical fitness of individuals, and the improvement of productivity mainly depends on the improvement and upgrading of the stone tools used by laborers. Marx once said that stone tools are not only measuring instruments for the development of human labor (productivity), but also indicators of social relations through which labor is carried out. Therefore, the degree of cooperation between labor and stone tools determines the level of productivity in the human age. Due to the slow evolution of stone tools, the overall productivity is relatively stable, and the social development is slow. The role of productivity is mainly gathering or hunting, and its value is mainly reflected in meeting the basic survival needs of human beings.
In the age of animal power, that is, the feudal agricultural society represented by large-scale farming, the productivity mainly relied on animal power, and humans began to domesticate animals to obtain greater energy productivity. The appearance of bronze ware and iron ware accelerated the application of horse-drawn carts and cattle farming, marking the beginning of the use of livestock power for human productive labor, rather than relying solely on human power itself. In the history of our country, the technology of pulling the plow with oxen has been used as the representative of agricultural productivity for thousands of years until the emergence of the industrial revolution. The transition from hand-pulled mills to horse-drawn mills in Europe is also a process of gradually replacing human power with animal power. During this period, the means of production such as land, raw materials, etc., did not undergo essential changes compared with the human era, but the labor tools have undergone substitution changes. In addition to farming and transportation, animal power has been used in warfare instead of human labor. Social productivity is measured in quantity. It has been greatly improved, but a qualitative leap has not yet been achieved.
In the era of power, that is, the industrial society between the middle of the nineteenth century and the middle of the twentieth century, all kinds of energy are converted into power, and machines are driven to participate in large-scale production, breaking the time and physical limits of human and animal power, and greatly improving the overall productivity of society. The innovation and wide application of the steam engine directly promoted the first industrial revolution (mechanization), which enabled the development of productive forces to get out of the handicraft stage of factories and enter the stage of large-scale machine production, which promoted the vigorous development of the industrial economy. The emergence of gasoline and diesel engines has made automobiles and construction machinery widely popular, and human beings have realized a great migration on a global scale. The emergence of electricity has brought the world from the “steam age” to the “electric age”, that is, the second industrial revolution (electrification). widely used in life. At the same time, the great development of industrialization has further accelerated the emergence and adoption of new means of production, such as oil and steel. New productive forces and means of production have jointly promoted social development and achieved a qualitative leap.
In the era of computing power, that is, the information society that began in the second half of the 20th century, productivity is mainly reflected in the ability to efficiently process new production materials such as data. The advent and widespread use of electronic computers has provided basic conditions for the development of global automation, informatization and networking, accelerated human beings’ ability to mine new means of production, and expanded human ability to understand and explore unknown areas. The means of production have gradually changed from oil and steel as the core to data as the core, and have evolved into microscopic fields such as molecules and atoms. At present, computing power is no longer an exclusive service in the field of information technology in the electronic computer age, but permeates all walks of life and the entire production process of enterprises, and the participation and proportion of computing power are getting higher and higher. Computing power can not only help enterprises reduce operating costs, but also provide intelligent decision support. Computing power has truly replaced human and brain power, and has become an extension of human capabilities and a transformative force that promotes social progress. As American scholar Nicholas Negroponte said in his book “Digital Survival”, “Computation is no longer just about computers, it also determines our survival”. Computing power is not only the core productivity in the digital economy era, but is also increasingly becoming an important factor in people’s lifestyles. In short, computing power is productivity, we call it the first law of computing power, and the “era of computing power” has truly arrived.
The wide application of computing power and the second law of computing power
As the core productivity in the digital economy era, computing power is widely used in various fields and levels of the economy and society, including the digital economy, digital society and digital government. The rapid development of computing power is not only driven by technological progress, but also benefits from the explosion of networking demand brought about by globalization, people’s continuous pursuit of a convenient, efficient, diversified and personalized life, and their unremitting pursuit of the unknown world. Exploration and the efficiency improvement brought by intelligent production are the fundamental driving force for the widespread application of computing power, thus promoting the increasingly rich application scenarios of computing power.
From a macro perspective, computing power, as the core resource of “new infrastructure”, will become the technical base to support the development of the digital economy, digital society and digital government. First of all, computing power supports the in-depth development of the digital economy, so that the proportion of my country’s digital economy in GDP has increased from 14.2% in 2015 to 38.6% in 2020; specifically, computing power accelerates the digitalization and networking of industries, agriculture and services. , intelligent, and increasingly optimized high-performance computing enables the value of data to be fully exploited and used, thereby promoting the upgrade of large-scale manufacturing to mass customization, the emergence of intelligent prediction in crop production, and the increasingly prominent personalized needs of thousands of people in the service field. Secondly, the application scope of computing power in the digital society has been continuously expanded, and it has been involved in various aspects such as medical care, education, scientific research, employment, and community services. By the end of 2020, the telemedicine collaboration network had covered more than 24,000 medical institutions in all prefecture-level cities, and a total of 360 million electronic social security cards had been issued, covering all prefecture-level cities. Increasing the construction of computing power infrastructure and creating a smart and safe city have become the keys to improving the happiness of residents and the overall competitiveness of the country in the digital age. Finally, with the acceleration of the construction of digital government, the central and local governments continue to invest in government data centers and build national electronic databases, which has accelerated the popularization of “hand-held,” “one-stop,” “remotely available,” and “cross-province”. 82.13% of provincial-level administrative licensing items are accepted online and “run at most once”, which greatly promotes the application of computing power in the field of government affairs, and maximizes cost savings while improving service efficiency.
From a meso-level perspective, as the digital transformation of society continues to deepen, more and more organizations and individuals are accelerating their migration to the cloud, laying the foundation for the efficient integration and rapid development of computing power. In addition, consumers have higher and higher requirements for digital service content and experience upgrades represented by social networking, entertainment, shopping, health management, etc. The continuous pursuit of the goal represented by bringing a better experience has greatly promoted the all-round penetration of computing power in the industry. However, affected by key factors such as industry digital transformation maturity, cloud penetration rate, etc., the computing power penetration and development index of different industries are different. On the whole, the higher the digital transformation of the industry, the higher the computing power index. From a global perspective, the computing power level of the Internet, manufacturing and financial industries ranks among the top three. The Internet industry is the industry with the largest computing power demand because of its digital services such as e-commerce, games, payment, social networking, and as a service provider of ICT infrastructure. Provide users with real-time, intelligent and immersive service content and experience and enterprise cloud services through the blessing of computing power. The application level of computing power in various industries in China is roughly the same as that in the world. Internet computing power accounts for nearly 50% of the overall computing power, followed by traditional industries with high digital transformation maturity, such as government, services, telecommunications, and finance. In the future, with the improvement of the level of intelligence in the industry, computing power will radiate to many different fields such as modern agriculture, smart home, and smart power, and be applied to product sorting and crop monitoring in modern agriculture, and home security in smart homes. As well as scenarios such as power inspection in smart power. On the whole, computing power will gradually penetrate into more traditional industries, and start to penetrate into more industry-specific scenarios from general scenarios.
At present, the application of computing power is increasingly accelerated from the Internet industry to traditional industries such as transportation, industry, finance, and government affairs. The application scenarios are also expanding from general scenarios to industry-specific scenarios, and computing power has played an unprecedented role. The large-scale deployment of 5G and the Internet of Things has greatly strengthened the underlying technical capabilities of computing power, coupled with the widespread application of artificial intelligence, which has led to a substantial increase in intelligent computing power, and the rapid breakthrough of quantum computing is expected, which will boost the scale of computing power to show an explosion. growth trend. From the purpose of computing power resources, the industry divides computing power into basic computing power, intelligent computing power and other computing power. According to the estimates of the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the global computing power scale will grow at a rate of more than 50% in the next five years, and the growth rate of intelligent computing power will far exceed the total computing power. 41% to more than 70% in 2023. CCID Research Institute believes that in 2020, my country’s general computing power will be 77 EFLOPS, and the AI computing power will be 56.23 EFLOPS. It is predicted that by 2025, the total basic computing power and AI computing power in my country will exceed 300 EFLOPS and 1800 EFLOPS respectively. Huawei issued a more optimistic forecast that in the next 10 years, mankind will usher in the YB era, and the global intelligent computing power will increase by 500 times. Roland Berger estimates from the application side that the computing power demand for popular applications such as autonomous driving, smart factories, and digital currency will increase by 390 times, 110 times, and 2,000 times, respectively, in the next decade. Based on the current development trend and future trend analysis, the global computing power is expected to double every 12 months, which we call the second law of computing power.
The economic value of computing power and the third law of computing power
The all-round penetration of computing power has brought remarkable results and economic value to all walks of life, and has increasingly become a key driving force for the high-quality development of the digital economy and the national economy. According to relevant research, computing power is closely related to economic growth. For every 1 point increase in the computing power index, the digital economy and GDP will increase by 3.3‰ and 1.8‰ respectively; the higher the computing power index, the higher the computing power will promote economic growth. the more prominent the multiplier effect. In addition, from statistical data analysis, it can be concluded that there is a significant positive correlation between the scale of computing power and the level of economic development in countries around the world. The larger the scale of computing power, the higher the level of economic development. According to research, the computing power industry is increasingly driving the energy levels of other industries, especially for industries such as electronic components, computers, materials, software and information technology services. Every 1 yuan invested in the computing power industry will drive an average GDP economic output of 3-4 yuan, which we call the third law of computing power.
In the industry field, computing power investment has a more obvious role in driving economic output in manufacturing, transportation, medicine, retail, energy, agriculture and other fields. For example, in the field of biomedicine, the increase in computing power has shortened the gene sequencing time from 13 years to 1 day, and the identification cycle of new drug development from 5,000 days to 100 days; in the field of weather forecasting, the development of computing power has reduced the accuracy of weather forecasting from the past 21.8% has increased to 90% now; in the field of industrial production, the entire production process is reconstructed in the digital world, and the optimization through simulation has increased the production efficiency by 30%. Computing power has become a key indicator to enhance the vitality of the digital economy and promote the transformation of enterprises.
Computing power has been more and more widely used in many industries and business scenarios, but different businesses have different requirements for computing power, which are mainly manifested in diverse needs such as low latency, high mobility, large computing power, and tidal properties. . Typical low-latency scenarios such as VR/AR have high user participation, and the latency requirement mainly comes from the smooth interaction between people or between people and devices, and becomes a decisive factor affecting the user experience; Mobility scenarios such as autonomous driving. In such scenarios, vehicles need to feel and respond to changes in the environment in a timely manner in a complex traffic environment. They need to constantly switch the location of computing service nodes to achieve the millisecond level required for autonomous driving. Latency; typical high computing power scenarios such as weapon research and development, flight simulation, climate simulation, fertility simulation, gene sequencing and other high-precision scientific research scenarios have intensive computing tasks and require extremely high accuracy; typical tidal demand scenarios such as For video surveillance of office buildings, the computing demand will fluctuate significantly during the day and night as time changes. In the future, computing power needs to rely on cutting-edge technologies such as networking, intelligence, greening, and credibility to meet the needs of business diversification through a service-oriented approach.
The future has come, how to accumulate data resources, improve the level of computing power, and optimize the computing power industry has become the common focus of enterprises, regions and even countries, not only benefiting the whole society, but also affecting everyone caught in the torrent of the times.
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