Tesla is selling crazy Q3 delivery surge performance can exceed expectations?

Since September 8, Ms. Mu has reduced Tesla shares ten times and sold more than 970,000 shares worth approximately US$768 million. This means that she has sold more than one-fifth of her holdings within a month. Sister Mu Mu’s operation is not optimistic about Tesla’s Q3 performance?

According to official website news, Tesla will announce its third quarter 2021 financial report after the US stock market closes on October 20, 2021. According to Bloomberg analysts’ expectations, Tesla’s revenue in Q3 2021 was US$13.527 billion, an increase of 54.2% year-on-year; adjusted net profit was US$1.740 billion, a year-on-year increase of 99.1%; adjusted earnings per share was US$1.56.

Tesla is selling crazy Q3 delivery surge performance can exceed expectations?

It is worth noting that even though Ms. Mu is reducing Tesla’s holdings, Ms. Mu reiterated her firm stance on Tesla at a recent investment meeting and joked that if the stock can reach her offer next year With a five-year target price of US$3,000, she will leave the market without hesitation.

How much does Tesla earn from electric car sales? Can carbon credits and digital currencies still affect performance? How about the revenue of FSD for self-driving software? Q3 Will the performance exceed expectations? Let us look down carefully.

1. Q3 delivery volume exceeds expectations, and revenue may reach new highs

Although the supply chain is blocked, chip shortages and other challenges, Tesla’s Q3 delivery volume still exceeds market expectations. Data show that Tesla produced 237,800 vehicles in the third quarter and delivered 241,300 vehicles at the same time, which exceeded Wall Street’s general expectation of about 223,000 vehicles.

Most of Tesla’s products delivered in the third quarter were Model 3 and Model Y. In the second quarter, Tesla began delivering Model S Plaid, which is an improved version of the company’s flagship sedan. The improved version of Model S includes a large number of performance improvements and a completely redesigned interior. Tesla also plans to start delivering Model X sometime in 2022, which has been updated and improved.

Tesla is selling crazy Q3 delivery surge performance can exceed expectations?

 It is worth noting that Tesla’s revenue currently consists of four main components: electric vehicle sales, electric vehicle leasing, energy production and storage, services, and others. Electric vehicle sales are the main source. This quarter contributed more than 80% of Tesla’s revenue.

The financial report shows that Tesla’s Q2 revenue reached 11.958 billion U.S. dollars, of which 9.874 billion U.S. dollars came from the sales of electric vehicles. Since Tesla’s Q3 delivery volume is significantly higher than Q2’s 201,25 million vehicles, Q3’s revenue is expected to reach a new high.

In this regard, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner said that Tesla is better than other peers in dealing with semiconductor shortages. The analyst said that Q3 deliveries far exceeded expectations; therefore, he raised his Q3 revenue forecast from $13.1 billion to $14.5 billion, earnings per share from $1.52 to $1.85, and free cash flow from $600 million. To approximately US$1.1 billion, the buy rating is maintained.

2. Ten years later, will FSD software revenue exceed 100 billion U.S. dollars?

Tesla once released a “Full Self-Driving (FSD)” software system, which was officially opened to the public in the United States. According to Tesla’s official statement, Tesla owners can pay $10,000 to win this software package at one time. In addition, users can also choose the subscription system, that is, the subscription price for basic assisted driving users is 199 US dollars/month, and the subscription price for EAP (enhanced automatic assisted driving) users is 99 US dollars/month.

Tesla is selling crazy Q3 delivery surge performance can exceed expectations?

For Tesla’s autopilot software, some analysts are optimistic about the future profitability. Technology analyst Gene Munster once said that in ten years, the FSD paid business will generate more than $100 billion in revenue for Tesla every year. The market value of this service alone is Will reach 850 billion US dollars.

Therefore, investors can pay attention to the revenue and growth of this software in Q3.

3. Pay attention to carbon credits and digital currency income

Carbon credits

With the development of the new energy vehicle industry and the promotion of the reduction of carbon emissions, some countries have subsequently introduced policies and regulations. For example, if car companies want to produce traditional cars, they need carbon credits in exchange for emission permits. Electric cars must be sold on the market.

Take Tesla as an example. For every electric car sold in the domestic market, you can get 5 carbon credits. For some traditional car companies that do not produce electric vehicles, you can only get these carbon credits if you want to get carbon credits. New energy car companies come to buy carbon credits.

According to Tesla’s Q2 financial report data, Tesla’s revenue from the sale of carbon credits was only 354 million yuan, a decrease of 31.7% from the previous quarter. The reason behind this is mainly due to many car companies that buy carbon credits from Tesla. Have started to make electric cars.

As more and more car companies overweight new energy vehicles, investors should pay attention to the Q3 carbon credit income.

Digital currency

In terms of investing in digital currencies, Musk bought about 40,000 bitcoins with a large sum of 1.5 billion earlier this year . In the Q1 quarter, the investment surpassed 270 million U.S. dollars, which successfully helped Tesla turn losses, even better than making cars. It is easy for car owners to make money. However, the good times did not last long, and these bitcoins began to lose money in Q2. According to Tesla’s financial report, bitcoin assets were impaired by $23 million in Q2.

Of course, Tesla’s Bitcoin investment loss is related to the sharp drop in Bitcoin in Q2. It once rushed to 65,000 U.S. dollars in May, and then plummeted by half in June. The lowest fell below 30,000 U.S. dollars, and it is now at 40,000 U.S. dollars. Vibrate up and down.

Now that Bitcoin is back above 57,000, is Tesla profitable? Investors can pay attention to the investment income and the impact on revenue.

Fourth, the latest views of Dahang

Optimist

Wedbush: Berlin and Austin super factories will significantly expand production capacity

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives pointed out that although the chip shortage is an obvious disadvantage for Tesla and the entire automotive/tech industry, he believes that the expansion of manufacturing capacity on a global scale is still the company’s gain in 2022 and beyond. the key to success.

Ives believes that at this point, if the plants in Austin and Berlin are put into use in the next few months, it will significantly expand Tesla’s global production capacity.

The analyst believes that the new Berlin factory will be approved to operate and start production next month, and Austin will become the center of Tesla’s capacity building in the next few years. As time goes by, more and more production is shifted from Fremont to Austin, and considering the scale and scope of the Austin plan, by 2022, with Cybertruck as the core, it is foreseeable that Tesla’s car profits will increase. .

The analyst gave the stock an “outperform” rating with a target price of $1,000.

Morgan Stanley maintains Tesla’s $900 target price and overweight rating

Tesla’s Q3 deliveries exceeded analysts’ expectations of 220,900 vehicles. Based on Tesla’s delivery volume in the third quarter, Morgan Stanley raised its delivery forecast for 2021 from 835,000 to 881,000, and its delivery forecast for 2022 from 1.13 million to 1.2 million.

Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that it is difficult to understand how Tesla handed over delivery data that exceeded market expectations when the global auto industry was affected by chip shortages. Doesn’t Tesla need chips? Analysts believe that Tesla’s vertical integration capabilities, sophisticated technical reserves and production processes, supply chain negotiations and scale effects are better than other peers.

Canaccord: Raise Tesla’s target price from US$768 to US$940

Canaccord analyst Jed Dosheimer raised Tesla’s target price from $768 to $940 and maintained a buy rating on the stock after the company’s annual shareholder meeting and before the quarterly earnings report. Dorsheimer told investors that at the meeting, CEO Elon Musk delivered a speech “directly touches the key points of our investment thesis”. Analysts believe that strong deliveries and increased gross profit margins for Model S and Made in China will create upside.

Pessimism

Roth Capital Partners: Give Tesla a target price of $150

Craig Irwin, an analyst at Roth Capital Partners, an investment firm that is bearish on Tesla, said that investors who are bullish on Tesla should be concerned about Apple’s launch of automotive products. “The biggest catalyst in the next few years will be the release of Apple cars in 2024. But Apple may follow Porsche and slowly expand its production capacity. It is expected that Apple’s technology will be amazing.” The analyst’s price target for Tesla is $150. Irving said that Tesla also faces other short-term risks, including increasingly fierce competition from other traditional automakers.

Looking at the end, do you think that Tesla’s third-quarter revenue can reach a new high? We will wait and see.

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