Ten conjectures: Interpretation of the development trend of the most comprehensive universe

The journey 27 years ago was called the “Information Superhighway”, and everyone knows what happened after that. The predictions in “The Road Ahead” have all come true.

In 1995, Bill Gates wrote the famous scientific prophecy – “The Road to the Future”. For a great journey that is about to begin, most people do not know where it will take everyone, and Bill Gates. Gates is convinced that it will touch people’s lives and guide mankind to a farther place.

The journey 27 years ago was called the “Information Superhighway”, and everyone knows what happened after that. The predictions in “The Road Ahead” have all come true.

Now, another great upheaval that will also change the course of humanity is about to happen. In 2021, the concept of the Metaverse erupts, which depicts people’s ultimate imagination of the Internet, and even becomes the ultimate possibility for the evolutionary direction of the next generation of human beings.

However, as we move towards that ultimate goal, which “possibles” will come first? At least for now, a thousand people have a thousand Metaverses in their hearts.

Writing this “Top Ten Conjectures About the Metaverse” at the beginning of 2022 may be able to use the words of Bill Gates to negotiate, “If what I said was later verified, some people would think that it was obvious in the first place. but if I’m wrong, they’ll think I’m so ridiculous.” But it’s all about trying to figure out, “How can we take advantage of what’s bound to happen in the years ahead?”

Conjecture 1: The sign of the arrival of the Metaverse is an explosive product

People may not remember the name of the world’s first computer, but that doesn’t prevent them from using Windows or Mac OS laptops, because the latter two: Microsoft and Apple, are the companies that really brought computers to the homes of ordinary people . If it is inevitable that the Internet will go to the Metaverse, which company will people remember in the future? The answer may be – the one that launched the explosive product. No matter how important a technology is, if you want to fully enter human life, the first thing to do is to conquer the market. Centuries later, when future generations look back at the birth of the Metaverse, the popularity of an explosive product will undoubtedly become one of the signs, and this trend can already be seen today.

Since the second half of 2021, the winds of the Metaverse have been blowing more and more fiercely. The trend was first detonated by the listing of “the first stock in the Metaverse” Roblox. The latter’s stock price rose by 54.4% on the first day of this concept, and its market value exceeded 40 billion US dollars, a 10-fold increase from its valuation of 4 billion US dollars a year ago.

Subsequently, the popularity of the Metaverse has repeatedly reached new heights in the investment community, the secondary market and social platforms, and the followers tirelessly go back to the science fiction novel “Avalanche” by American author Neil Stephenson, trying to spread the inevitability and mystery of the Metaverse. feel.

Although there is no shortage of “bubbles”, in recent years, the Metaverse has become more and more “into the house”, and has been further valued by the technology circle, academia and the government.

After Zuckerberg renamed Facebook to Meta and entered the Metaverse in an all-round way, Microsoft acquired Activision Blizzard and also “entered” the Metaverse. University communication scholars such as Fudan University, Beijing Normal University, and Tsinghua University have released research reports on the Metaverse. Explore the definition and trends of the Metaverse; since the beginning of 2022, Wuhan, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other places have written the Metaverse into this year’s government work report, and deployed related industries and technologies in advance.

The wind direction is also changing quietly. In the above actions, it is not difficult to find that the entrants have begun to focus on more practical and specific measures, and pay attention to the “landing” of the Metaverse. Starting from the specific aspects of the two Metaverses of content ecology and hardware technology, “product” may be the intersection of the two branches, and truly bring the Metaverse to the public.

At the end of October 2021, at the Connect developer conference announcing Facebook’s renaming of Meta, Zuckerberg demonstrated the future experience that the Metaverse may bring through a demonstration of a promotional video. Many netizens are fond of saying that the most fascinating thing about the “Zuckerberg Edition” Metaverse is the sense of immersion, which transforms the Internet from two-dimensional to three-dimensional, making people’s communication seem to be face-to-face.

This macro idea was “spit out” by Carmack, the CTO of its Oculus company. According to foreign media reports, he is known as the “father of FPS games” for his unique contributions. This well-known technical officer in the technology circle believes that Zuckerberg’s idea of ​​”building” the Metaverse may not be the right way. The biggest suggestion is to trend the Metaverse a little bit through the product.

However, at the press conference, Zuckerberg did also reveal that the latest devices such as the high-end VR/AR headset Project Cambria, AR glasses Project Aria, and AR full-experience glasses Project Nazare are under development.

In the history of the development of science and technology, the appearance of the Ford automobile and the Apple personal computer has all caused subversive changes. Capital is chasing profits, and based on the short “explosion history” of the Metaverse in 2021, the shadow of a “Metaverse consumer product” is changing from vague to clear.

Conjecture 2: The explosive products of the Metaverse will arrive in 2-3 years

Let’s try to summarize the “explosion points” of most popular products: first, it is irreplaceable and can bring a superior experience; second, its price is close to the people, and it will not “hurt the pocket” too much; third, it It is widely used and can set off a wave of popularity. When you are faced with such a product, you will inevitably want to try it. In fact, there are already “Metaverse products” that are tending to meet the first two conditions, and that is VR/AR devices. The VR/AR field is where the Metaverse and technology are most closely combined, and naturally carries the hope of producing the first Metaverse explosive product. Therefore, the path for the product to complete the third condition gradually matches the evolution cycle of VR/AR industry technology. Deep binding. “2-3 years.” This is an industry insider’s estimate of the transition time required for the current technology to enter the next stage.

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in 2021, when the concept of the Metaverse is hot, the global VR/AR industry investment and financing amount will reach 40.709 billion yuan from January to September alone, exceeding the 24.4 billion yuan investment and financing amount in 2020. In addition, the global VR/AR industry market size in 2020 is 90 billion yuan, and the five-year period from 2020 to 2024 is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 54%.

Ten conjectures: Interpretation of the development trend of the most comprehensive universe

From the internal logic of the industry, VR/AR is also facing the evolution of technology and the derivation of ecology.

Previously, the VR all-in-one Oculus quest 2 was regarded as the leading product of VR headsets, and this product, officially priced at $299, has been “cheap and easy to use” in terms of sales and ecology. Despite this, many industry figures have told the “IT Times” reporter that there has been no transformative breakthrough in related technologies for several years.

“This year is a relatively important year, and I think it is a transitional year.” Pan Bohang, founder of the virtual community project vHome, told the IT Times reporter, breaking down the nearly 10 years in the VR field, from the Oculus first-generation product Rift released in 2013 From DK1 to 2016, various consumer-grade PCVR (computer VR), from a series of VR mobile phone boxes to the Oculus quest generation released in 2019, failed to verify market strategies such as “lightweight head-mounted devices for watching movies” one by one , in the end, only the “VR all-in-one machine” track will continue to develop rapidly.

“But in fact, the VR experience has not changed dramatically in recent years. VR devices are all binocular vision plus auditory. Except for the increase in resolution, there is no deeper evolution.” Pan Bohang said, and this year’s VR field will be announced two. Consumer-grade products are all iterations of previous successful products: one is Zuckerberg’s Project Cambria, or the “Oculus quest Pro” that industry people have speculated for a long time; the other is Sony’s PS VR 2. Both products have made breakthroughs in technology, such as “eye tracking” that both have, PS VR 2 developed “dynamic foveated rendering”, vibration, optics, and screens have been improved; Project Cambria’s “expression capture” “Full-body motion capture” uses video penetration to achieve AR functions, which may make it the best platform for AR developers and consumers.

Bohang Pan believes that in 2023, more VR/AR hardware under the new standard will appear one after another, and the unsolved problem in the field of AR/VR display that causes users to suffer from motion sickness “visual vergence adjustment conflict” may also be resolved. After the transition period in the VR/AR field, more “evolution” will usher in an explosion.

In 2016, Oculus founder Palmer Luckey said in an interview with the Financial Times that in another 10 years, virtual reality devices will be cheap and lightweight enough to replace smartphones as the mainstream computing platform. It’s small enough to make people want to wear it on their heads every day. Making virtual reality devices something everyone wants to use is the only way to get billions of users.”

“If one day, VR equipment becomes as thin and light as glasses through the technology of optical penetration, it may replace mobile phones and become a general-purpose equipment.” Pan Bohang also imagined, “What VR needs to do now is to consolidate itself as an excellent device. The status of ‘game console’, with the progress of technology research and development, will move towards ‘universal equipment’.”

Conjecture 3: The Metaverse Will Change the Way Information Disseminates on the Internet

The emergence of advanced media will subvert everything, and it will be the “transcendence” of one medium over another. In the history of human beings, the evolution of communication has been divided into four stages: “oral communication”, “text communication”, “print communication” and “electronic communication”, but most of these communication media only use one or two human senses at the same time. : auditory, visual. In the Metaverse era, human beings are in the “embodied Internet”, and the senses of the whole body will become the “information source”, and the means of communication will also usher in a comprehensive “evolution” in the Metaverse. At the same time, the sense of smell and touch will continue to receive and transmit information.

“Web 3.0” is often mentioned along with the Metaverse. Its birth is not long, and it is one of the concepts derived from network communication in recent years. Peng Lan, a professor at Renmin University of China who focuses on network communication research, defines “Web3.0” as: “The qualitative change of the content network, relationship network and terminal network, all objects may become terminals.” Another more popular statement is: Web3.0 will break the Internet centralization and monopoly.

“In my eyes, Web 3.0 is actually a partial technical improvement compared to Web 2.0. The underlying layer is blockchain and cryptocurrency technology. It is far from a long enough era, but it just happens to encounter the Metaverse. The concept is hot.” Deng Jianguo, director of the Department of Communication, School of Journalism, Fudan University, said that the “Web 2.0” we are in also has a trend of decentralization, but it failed to achieve this breakthrough.

The articles you wrote on Douban can’t be synchronized to Zhihu? Can’t use WeChat payment to buy things on Taobao?Friends on QQ can’t use twitter to contact them? In fact, the “Internet” is not really “interconnected”. As users, we have long been accustomed to these rules, which is actually contrary to the original intention of the “Internet”. In the process of upgrading the first generation of the Internet, there was also a boom in UGC (User Generated Content), but the immaturity of technology and the logic of business competition quickly made the “prosperity of the whole network” disappear.

Can the Metaverse change all this? In order to break down the barriers, it may be necessary to hope for a complete change in the way information is transmitted on the Internet. Deng Jianguo put forward the statement of “personal communication 2.0” in “2021-2022 Metaverse Report: Incarnation and Intelligent Creation, Metaverse Coordinate Analysis”, believing that today’s “symbolic communication” on the Internet will become “post-symbolic communication” carried out by the body. “, the most primitive in-person communication 1.0 realizes “remote presence” through technology, and completes in-person communication 2.0 with excellent communication efficiency and effect.

In addition, he also believes that UGC will usher in a full-scale explosion in the Metaverse era, and blockchain technology will help it find an effective business model. “We cannot prohibit technological development because of fear of inequality.” Deng Jianguo told the “IT Times” reporter that it is the best way to take advantage of technological advantages and take relevant measures to overcome disadvantages.

On the other hand, the above-mentioned changes in the Metaverse also depend on the evolution of related wearable devices. Deng Jianguo believes that there are two main directions: one is Zuckerberg’s version, which is still based on the development of VR equipment, and then based on the simulation of advanced technology, using human multi-sensory; the other is Musk’s version, he once complained The Metaverse “who will tie the screen to their face all day long”, but if they put their hopes on its dedicated “brain-computer interface”, it will also face many technical difficulties and ethical issues. “Whether these two versions will be completely separated, it is still difficult for us to predict.” Deng Jianguo said.

Conjecture 4: 6G joins hands with the Metaverse towards symbiosis and coexistence

The Metaverse is very sci-fi, but not fantasy. Its popularity is closely related to the maturity of emerging technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, and digital twins. It expands the boundaries of human experience. On this basis, people have a richer future. imagine. Imagination is the productive force, and imagining the future of the Metaverse will also push communication technology to a higher level, turning imagination into reality. 6G will promote the interconnection of all things to the intelligent connection of all things, and better realize the interaction between the physical world and the virtual world. 6G and the Metaverse are each other’s motivation and luck for each other. They will move towards symbiotic coexistence and embrace a better future together.

A thousand people have a thousand Hamlets in their hearts, and a thousand people have a thousand Metaverses in their hearts. At the moment, there is no concept larger and vaguer than the Metaverse, and different people have different interpretations of it. Some people think it is the ultimate form of the next-generation Internet, and some people think that it is a virtual world that is parallel and isomorphic to the real world.

But no matter how the connotation and definition of the Metaverse evolve, it is not illusory. Unlike Romance of the Gods or ancient Greek mythology, it needs a new generation of information infrastructure as support. Without efficient connections, the physical world and the digital world cannot be connected, and the Metaverse will be “dropped.”Therefore, “connection” is the fundamental issue in the development and evolution of the Metaverse, and it is also the core issue.

Industry insiders believe that the Metaverse develops in stages, with games and virtual worlds in the primary stage, which will be combined with applications such as digital twins and XR.

At this stage, 5G with features such as large bandwidth, low latency, high reliability, low power consumption, and large connections will form a strong support for the Metaverse. For example, XR (Extended Reality) is considered to be the entrance to the exploration of the Metaverse and the core interface connecting virtual and reality. Many technology Internet companies such as Huawei, Apple, Nvidia, and Google have already deployed.

At the Global Mobile Broadband Forum held last year, Hu Houkun, the rotating chairman of Huawei, shouted, “We must be ready for XR, and provide a network delay of no higher than 10ms and a downlink rate of more than 4.6Gbps at the network level.” In the process of 5G standard evolution, a lot of research and standardization work has also been carried out on the sub-field of XR. Recently, among the first batch of projects successfully established in 3GPP R18, there are several projects from “0 to 1”, such as XR, which requires the operator’s network to have the ability to support XR on a large scale.

Although the capabilities of 5G are constantly improving, it still cannot meet the needs of the Metaverse for connectivity in the mature stage, such as high-level application scenarios such as global connectivity, immersive XR, holographic images, and sensory interconnection, which require higher-level communication technologies. to satisfy. Although 6G is only 1G more than 5G, there is a huge difference.

At present, 6G is still in the early stage globally, and there is no consensus on how to realize 6G. But it is precisely because of this that 6G may become a technology “born for the Metaverse”.

The “6G Overall Vision and Potential Key Technologies White Paper” released by the IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group proposes that the future 6G business will show new development trends such as immersion, intelligence, and globalization, and the formation of immersive cloud XR, holographic communication , sensory interconnection, global coverage and other business applications. It can be seen from this that most of the scenarios that 6G meets are also the future scenarios planned by the Metaverse.

For example, Metaverse emphasizes all-weather and all-round access experience, which 5G cannot satisfy. The first trend of 6G is “three-dimensional full coverage of space, space and earth”. Together with the terrestrial cellular network, it forms a three-dimensional coverage communication network to provide connectivity in any place, at any time, and in any way.For example, under the blessing of 6G network, combined with the improvement of the capabilities of XR terminal equipment, it can help the Metaverse enter the era of full immersion, helping users to achieve various interactions with the environment, such as voice interaction, gesture interaction, eyeball interaction, etc. Satisfy users with a smooth, real-time interactive experience in the Metaverse.

6G, like 5G, first determines the application scenarios, and then determines the technical indicators and implementation paths. It is entirely possible that the Metaverse will become the most typical and most important application of 6G.

Compared with 5G, which has always been pursuing killer applications, 6G may be lucky, it can join hands with the Metaverse and move towards symbiotic coexistence.

Conjecture 5: The Metaverse may be a “Lego” world assembled from different modules

What is the Metaverse? Everyone has a very different answer to this question. However, few people think about how the Metaverse should be realized, it is an open native world? Or a space for different modular combinations? What is its base and soil? In 2021, different tech companies will begin to implement their ideas for the Metaverse. Judging from the current practice of various companies, the decentralized native world may be too far away, and a “Lego” Metaverse assembled from different Metaverse world modules may be the future that can be seen. And blockchain technology is likely to become the soil that carries this Metaverse.

In 2021, the entire world turns its attention to the Metaverse. Although the jury is still out on what the Metaverse is. But in the popular imagination, it resembles a sci-fi future—a digital world where humans have avatars, move freely between data, and have the same kinds of experiences as the real world. However, the realization of the Metaverse requires the continuous superposition and evolution of various technologies, rather than the growth of a single technology.

In the past year, technology companies have begun to make various explorations of the Metaverse through their own practice and create their own Metaverse. Microsoft is working hard to create an “enterprise Metaverse”; Nvidia has launched the world’s first simulation and collaboration platform that provides a foundation for the establishment of the Metaverse; American social media giant Facebook (Facebook) has changed its name to “Meta” and launched the “Meta” application, featuring social contact. And game companies continue to provide players with a virtual life experience in the game.

Judging from the results, the exploration of the Metaverse by various companies is still in its infancy, and the products they develop are more like fragments of one Metaverse after another, and it is difficult to form a complete Metaverse experience.

Microsoft’s astronomical $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard may show us a way to build the Metaverse. In the future, the construction of the Metaverse will not be through cooperation, but by means of capital acquisition, to obtain all the technologies for constructing a Metaverse, and take the lead in producing a Metaverse start-up company.

Of course, there may be more than one company with a complete Metaverse technology. That said, there may not be only one world in our so-called Metaverse. This means that the Metaverse may not be a native open platform, but closer to the way web2.0 was formed. A “LEGO” world composed of different Metaverse platforms and Metaverse application modules.

In such a Metaverse, blockchain is the best foundation and soil to realize the freedom of human beings on the premise of ensuring the security of various behaviors and digital properties.

Although in the existing practice, people’s practice about web3.0 mostly ends in failure. However, the continuous upgrading of blockchain technology has made an interconnected world possible. Liu Wei, deputy director of Shanghai Library, told the “IT Times” reporter that today’s blockchain technology has made new breakthroughs. In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, a new protocol with higher efficiency has emerged – Solana (Solana). ), its single-second concurrency can reach 65,000. This means that in the future, more efficient blockchain technology may appear to carry the all-encompassing Metaverse world. When all the Metaverse worlds and applications are concentrated on the blockchain, the way to connect different Metaverses is also very simple, and the interconnection can be achieved only through protocols.

Perhaps the end of the Metaverse is a decentralized digital world. But coming earlier than this ultimate will be a digital world composed of various platforms that can be freely traversed.

Conjecture 6: How fast is the Metaverse, how bad is the hacker

Almost all security problems in the real world will be brought to the Metaverse; digital security risks that do not exist in the real world will also explode in the Metaverse. Digital security issues in the Metaverse are far more serious than imagined.

In a virtual universe created with virtual reality technology that is completely different from the real world, people live, work, and have fun, and everything is like reality. This is the “Super Metaverse” world described in the novel “Avalanche”, which is the predecessor of the now popular concept of the Metaverse.

Linking the real world and the hypermeta domain is the “avalanche virus” that threatens both the virtual and real worlds in the story.

And it’s not just a scene from the novel, when the Metaverse hits humans, everything in Avalanche repeats itself, including the virus.

In the virtual world, will hackers and white hackers start an unfinished fight again?

Infinite users go online and log in for a long time… The characteristics of these Metaverses not only convey “infinite business opportunities”, but also reveal the signal of “infinite attack value”.

According to a survey by security company 360, more than 80% of the respondents believe that the Metaverse will make the security problems of the digital world increasingly prominent, such as data security, information security, and new online scams. Among them, the issue of personal information leakage is the most worrying. The Metaverse needs to collect a large amount of data, which will put the security of personal information at risk.

Just like the mobile Internet era in reality, apps will also be flooded in the Metaverse, and users can shop, socialize, and play through apps. Similarly, ID attacks, identity theft, Trojan software, and other security issues encountered in real life. Problems almost always “reunite” in the Metaverse.

If personal preferences, gender, biological information, etc. are only formal personal information, then ideology, outlook on life, values, etc. may also be retained and analyzed in the world of the Metaverse, allowing people to “reveal their true colors”. Once in the Metaverse, humans may be stripped clean than in the real world.

Even as concerns have been raised about the Metaverse’s privacy-preserving prospects, hackers have their sights set on a larger goal.

The Metaverse gives hackers a larger imaginary space to do whatever they want. Phishing, malware, account hacking, etc. can all be copied into the Metaverse. Hackers’ ambitions don’t stop there. Small hackers who make small troubles may also become big players who mainly focus on extortion attacks and organized crime.

Dr David Reid, Professor of Artificial Intelligence and Spatial Computing at Liverpool Hope University, is very concerned about the vast amount of data being collected from the Metaverse and who controls it, “Virtual avatars could be hacked, leading users to potentially engage with cybercriminals instead of knowing and Interact with people you trust.”

2021 is considered to be the “first year of the Metaverse”. According to Zhou Hongyi, the founder of 360 Group, 2022 will be the first year of digital security. The security risks faced by the Metaverse are essentially the challenges brought about by digital security. “Metaverse risk is the biggest risk in digitalization. It fully realizes the software-defined world and even the software-defined universe, which is driven by big data operation. The risk is not only power outage and disconnection, but also data attack and network collapse.” Zhou Hongyi explained, For example, once the line is disconnected, it will go offline in the network, and even if it is too late to withdraw, it will “die”.

Digitization can make human society more “smart”, and it may also make security more “fragile”. Antivirus software, firewalls, etc. have been unable to cope with security challenges. Zhou Hongyi revealed that the current security risks have broken through the scope of computer security and network security and have been upgraded to digital security. Digital security includes not only data security, but also artificial intelligence security and network security. Thinking reshapes network security, builds new tactics, new frameworks, new technologies and new capabilities, and forms a digital security capability system.

At present, the operators of the Metaverse community say that this is a decentralized society, but the governance, transactions and other rules of this virtual society are controlled and guided by corporate giants. Tan Jianfeng, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and honorary president of the Shanghai Information Security Industry Association, told the “IT Times” reporter that public opinion governance, transaction supervision, personal privacy protection and even national sovereignty protection in the online virtual society are serious challenges. These problems bring greater challenges. “For example, NFT virtual artworks based on blockchain technology are popular in the Metaverse, but supervision is difficult to implement, and new money laundering channels may be formed. It is necessary to track and study the resulting New models and new mechanisms, formulate regulatory laws and norms in advance, and prevent systemic risks in advance.”

Conjecture 7: “Pure Numbers” Will Alienate the Metaverse Economic System

The economic system in the Metaverse is a far-flung, near-immediate subject. Today, the economic activities in the Metaverse have resonated with the real world, and tomorrow, the Metaverse’s underlying reshaping of commodity values ​​will bring terrifying and earth-shaking changes, and the alienated Metaverse economic system will attract much attention.

As a purely digital world, what are the differences between the economic system in the Metaverse and reality? Will the Metaverse economic system built on the decentralization logic of blockchain also have the attributes of decentralization?Different scholars have different opinions on these issues, but it may be difficult to judge before the specific Metaverse scenario is implemented.

The most classic scene in “The Matrix” is probably on a black curtain, with countless data streams flowing. This picture has influenced many people’s imagination of the Metaverse. Unlike the real world, in the Metaverse world, everything is composed of digital codes. There is no geographic separation between people, and the weather geography can change with code changes. As long as there is sufficient energy, it can be online 24 hours a day and operate endlessly.

In such a world so different from reality, how will the economy flow?

Zhang Chunxin, Academic Deputy Dean of Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University, pointed out in the article “The Operating Principles of the Economic System in the Metaverse” that the Metaverse is an independent economy that operates in parallel with the physical world. As a result, some theories applicable to traditional economics will inevitably be challenged in the Metaverse economy, and the concepts of regulation, credit, and intermediaries need to be redefined.

In Zhang Chunxin’s view, all items, relationships and rules in the Metaverse world are ultimately reflected in the permutation and combination of 0 and 1. For production in the Metaverse, the main cost comes from the consumption of electricity in the physical world, so the resources in the Metaverse are no longer scarce, and the value of items in the Metaverse economic system is no longer determined by “scarcity”. , the core point of price changes is no longer the indiscriminate human labor condensed in commodities, and the value of digital commodities will be determined by the consensus of the community.

This determines that the economic model in the Metaverse is a creator-driven model, an economic model of a “stakeholder system”. Under this model, there is no so-called division of shareholders, executives and employees, and all participants “co-build, co-create, co-govern and share”.

Some experts also believe that the Metaverse economy is a new form of digital economy in which the real economy and the virtual economy are deeply integrated. This means that the economic system in the Metaverse needs to interact and transform with the economic system in the real world. In this regard, we may be able to find clues in the Metaverse’s native commodity NFTs.

If the value of virtual currency is completely determined by consensus, the value system of NFT becomes more complicated. NFT is native to the blockchain, with its own artistic attributes and certain scarcity, which leads to the value of NFT is often determined by artistry, scarcity and consensus. With the further implementation of Metaverse applications, NFTs are also endowed with more added value – NFTs can be used as tickets to the next scene, or even the ownership of a real-world villa. The latter, in particular, connects the NFT with the real world, allowing the Metaverse scene to interact with reality. This also brings the economic value system of the real world into the digital world to a certain extent. Perhaps, the value exchange between the digital world of the Metaverse and the real world will be more frequent.

In recent years, my country has vigorously promoted the construction of digital renminbi. This also makes some NFT players imagine that the implementation of the digital renminbi means that the digital renminbi may have some kind of value resonance with the blockchain currency in the future? Regarding this issue, Liu Wei, deputy director of Shanghai Library, believes that although digital RMB exists in digital form, it is still a legal currency. At least, under the existing circumstances, it is difficult to see the mutual exchange between RMB and blockchain currency recognize the possibility of interoperability.

Conjecture 8: Games are just the “stepping stone” of the Metaverse

In the world of the Metaverse, we may need to rebuild the twin digital cities and formulate corresponding laws and systems. The construction of the Metaverse is like a “Genesis”, and the game is just an instruction manual and experiencer for people to understand the Metaverse.

In 2021, no matter which industry seems to want to get involved with the Metaverse, the gaming industry is the first. Many games have been dubbed the title of Metaverse games, such as Roblox, Decentraland, The Sandbox, Cryptovoxels, as well as NFT games that can be played while earning, and consumer-level landing VR script kills. In the cognition of some people, the Metaverse seems to be equated with games.

“Games are one of the important features of the Metaverse, but they are by no means limited to the game dimension,” said Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary-general of the Rural Revitalization and Construction Committee. Games have relatively good virtual reality capabilities, and have become the first field to enter the Metaverse. It can be said that the Metaverse started with games, but from the current development trend, games may not be the real track of the Metaverse, nor must they be. Will be the only track.

In China, the development of the Metaverse presents a unique landscape. In addition to Internet companies and capital busy seizing potential business opportunities, many cities have also entered the market one after another, actively deploying new technologies, new industries, and new patterns. Shanghai has clearly included the development of Metaverse technology in the “14th Five-Year Plan”; the work reports of Wuhan and Hefei municipal governments have successively “embraced” Metaverse; Zhangjiajie Metaverse Research Center has been listed…

The Metaverse is not a specific technology, but a new concept closely related to virtual reality (VR), big data, artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge Internet technologies and the digital economy. These are precisely the important foundations of the digital transformation of cities. With the government’s attention and support to the Metaverse, the social attributes of the Metaverse continue to unfold.

Yao Chunbin, Department of Digital Economy, Department of Economy and Information Technology, Zhejiang Province, believes that Metaverse is a new high ground for global innovation and competition. The development of the Metaverse industry can not only enable high-quality development in various fields such as games and entertainment, medical and health care, and industrial manufacturing, but also accelerate 5G, The construction of digital infrastructure such as data centers and communication base stations and the development of new-generation information technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, cloud computing, big data, and blockchain.

An Guangyong, an expert from the Credit Management Committee of the All-China Mergers & Acquisitions Association, said that games are an excellent popular science scene for people to understand the Metaverse, but to realize a virtual world in the true sense, the ability of game companies alone is far from enough. There is also a very important factor in the virtual world, the so-called “rules of the game”, and this “rules of the game” is even more important than technology.If these “rules of the game” are mapped to the real world, they can be compared to institutions, laws, etc. They are an important cornerstone for maintaining the development of the real world, and the main body that formulates the “rules of the game” is the government.

The Metaverse is the digital twin of the real world, but far richer and broader than the real world. In the world of the Metaverse, games end up being just the tip of the iceberg. With the continuous deepening of the complementation and integration of reality and virtuality, the Metaverse will bring a new window into the future that integrates life, art, technology and games. In the long run, it can even integrate the distribution and utilization of resources in the whole society to achieve The optimal solution for resource utilization.

Conjecture 9: China’s Metaverse Legislation may have a “Beijing Effect”

Coming with the Metaverse is a series of laws and regulations on data security and governance that China has issued intensively, such as the “Data Security Law”, “Personal Information Protection Law”, “Internet Information Service Algorithm Recommendation Management Regulations”… China enters data In the intensive legislative period of the era, these laws will definitely have a fundamental impact on the governance of the Metaverse, and thus may have a “Beijing effect”, making Chinese standards a global standard.

Unlike web 2.0, which emerged more than 20 years ago, the Metaverse has been incorporated into the government’s development plan from the very beginning. Shanghai, Wuhan, Hefei and other places have “embraced” the Metaverse in economic work conferences and government work reports.

The government’s positive statement is naturally good for the Metaverse industry, but it also means that the Metaverse will not have much room for “savage” development.

Although a new term, the Metaverse is not new. Zuckerberg said that the Metaverse is an “embodied Internet” (embodied Internet), a more simple understanding is the holographic Internet. In a narrow sense, the Metaverse is when human beings break through the limitations of the human body and space and realize real Internet travel in the virtual world. In a broad sense, the current classical Internet already has elements of the Metaverse.

Deng Jianguo, a professor and director of the Department of Communication at Fudan University, defines it: “The Metaverse is a horizon that is always receding. We can keep getting closer to it, but we can never fully realize it.”

Whether it’s old wine in a new bottle or the next generation of the Internet, it is undeniable that the technology base that the Metaverse relies on has already appeared, nothing more than: big data, cloud computing, high-speed bandwidth, blockchain, artificial intelligence, VR/AR… …In the era of web 2.0, the development of these technologies and applications led by Internet giants not only allows people to enjoy technological dividends, but also makes data and algorithms a tool to “control” users.

“The change in the productivity of the Metaverse is coming. Then, after the whistling, how to prevent the productivity from flooding or collapsing may have to consider how to manage it.” Zhao Xing, a professor at the Department of Information Management at East China Normal University, believes that in the web2.0 period , many vertical fields are first brutal development and then strong governance, resulting in low efficiency of the governance process, heavy sunk costs in the industry after governance, and social resource waste and unstable factors that cannot be underestimated. “Break” has come to an urgent moment.

“Next, China will enter an intensive period of relevant legislation.” Shi Yuhang, a lawyer from Huiye Law Firm, told reporters that after the promulgation and implementation of the “Network Security Law”, “Data Security Law” and “Personal Information Protection Law”, a series of supporting rules will follow. At the same time, the artificial intelligence governance system will also be gradually improved. The implementation of the “Internet Information Service Algorithm Recommendation Management Regulations” is just the beginning, and relevant laws, regulations, and departmental rules will continue to be issued.

The detailed rules of the three regulations and an artificial intelligence governance system with a complete regulatory system and standardized algorithm ecology will have a substantial impact on the operation of the new world of the Metaverse.

Zhao Xing also suggested that in the development of the Metaverse and related industries, governance exploration and experiments should be carried out forward-looking. There should be not only the stipulations of moral laws, but also the regulations of regulatory technology, and even more appropriate educational regulations.

When the Metaverse first appeared, the emphasis was placed on establishing first and then breaking, which highlights a vague concern in the academic world: the recurrence of the “Brussels effect”.

The term Brussels effect was first proposed by Finnish-born Columbia University Law School professor Anu Bradford in 2012, mainly referring to the EU’s ability to unilaterally regulate the global market by virtue of market power. Anu Bradford mentioned in an article that the European Union has a population of 516 million and a per capita GDP of $40,900. It has a larger market than the United States and a richer consumer market than China. For many companies, the benefits of entering the EU market outweigh the cost of adapting to strict EU standards, and the acceptance of EU standards by global companies will affect the markets of other countries as their globalization expands. global standard.

So EU rules determine default privacy settings for iPhones, standards for Brazilian honey production and pesticide use by Cameroonian cocoa farmers, and standards for equipment installed in Chinese dairies.

Specific to the field of technology, the most typical case is the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). This personal data regulatory rule introduced in 2018 has almost affected the formulation of laws for personal privacy protection in most countries around the world since then.

“China’s intensive legal governance of the data age or Metaverse, on the one hand, avoids becoming passive in the future Internet age, and on the other hand is a way to counter the ‘Brussels effect’. Once our legislation is ahead of the world, the same It is possible to rely on market forces to influence global standards through the driving force of multinational companies voluntarily abiding by Chinese laws and managing global business.” Shi Yuhang believes that the “Beijing effect” may not appear if the laws and regulations are sorted out in advance for the Metaverse.

Conjecture 10: Humans may not be able to withstand “digital immortality”

Will “digital immortality” be the ultimate future the Metaverse leads to? Not necessarily. In the future, as the digital virtual world becomes more and more perfect, the Internet will move from a two-dimensional plane to a three-dimensional plane, and “consciousness uploading” will become possible. Living in the Metaverse as a “digital avatar” may become a life choice for some people – the development of the Metaverse will Provide the technical foundation and operating environment for digital immortality.

The “brain in a vat” is a hypothesis put forward by Hilary Putnam in “Reason, Truth and History” in 1981. He hypothesized that a person’s brain was cut by evil scientists, placed in a nutrient solution, and the nerve The tip is connected to a computer, and by entering code information, it maintains the illusion that everything is normal. Then, Putnam asked, “How can you guarantee that you’re not in this predicament?”

If we translate the above assumptions into brain-computer interfaces and virtual universes, will you be surprised by the digital immortality of the Metaverse that people assume? In fact, when human technology has not yet reached such a level, this dilemma has been shown in countless sci-fi video works, such as the classic “The Matrix”.

The American drama “Black Mirror” has shown another possibility for digital immortality technology to serve human beings within a controllable range. The fourth episode of the third season, “San Junipero” (freely translated as “eternal life”) tells that after 2030, humans can go to the virtual city “San Junipero City”, and the living are limited to play time, The dying person can decide whether to be “always online”, and the server room has become a cemetery for those who choose digital immortality.

But the story still raises a question: Is digital immortality a betrayal of love and human dignity? The question falls on two people’s shoulders: one who has lost a beloved partner and child and has lived a full life; the other, who has been disabled since childhood, has rarely had a happy life.

Obviously, if humans cannot control the technology related to digital immortality, the world will slide towards the Matrix; but even if the technology is under control, human nature is still unable to escape the torture.

Yuval Harari, the author of “A Brief History of the Future”, once wrote his own concerns in the book: In a future society with highly developed artificial intelligence, human beings may lose most of their jobs and indulge in virtual worlds, but this is not the same as what liberalism advocates. The concept of “sacred and inviolable human life and experience” runs counter to the idea, but how can the “useless” human life experience be said to be sacred?

In the lecture on “Metaverse and Possible Worlds” from a philosophical perspective, Cheng Guangyun, a professor at the Department of Philosophy at Capital Normal University, said that when our way of life is “formatted” and life is close to immortality, the meaning of human life will need to be re-measured.

Another version of digital immortality is making its way to reality. On New Year’s Eve in 2022, “Virtual Digital Humans” became the common highlight of many mainstream evening parties. Jiangsu Satellite TV invited a virtual “Teng Lijun” to sing songs with Zhou Shen at the New Year’s Eve concert. According to public reports, this virtual digital human was built by Digital Domain Group Co., Ltd. and integrated the high-end rendering system “Mystique Live” (Mystique Live) under the blessing of machine learning.

The American company Lifenaut launched a digital immortality service in 2010, and users need to back up their “personality files” by themselves. The digital avatar of American actress Emily O’Brien displayed by Image Metrics in 2008 was also lifelike.

When the Metaverse becomes another universe that is parallel to reality, blends with reality, and is “re-engraved” by artificial intelligence virtual digital people with human emotions and appearance, should they have “human rights”? This is also one of the themes in the movie Out of Control.

Science fiction movies keep flashing back to human ethics. Obviously, the real serious question is: When the Metaverse moves towards digital immortality, can the human species be able to withstand it?

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/ten-conjectures-interpretation-of-the-development-trend-of-the-most-comprehensive-universe/
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