I remember when I was still looking at entrepreneurial opportunities in 2019, I naturally saw education and healthcare. I have written a book myself, and I have also done training and counseling. I am naturally interested in education. I asked a few seniors for advice, and they almost all mentioned that education should not be touched, but medical treatment can be done with patience.
In detail, the logic is that the essence of current online education is to “spend money to give some people more opportunities to rise”, which will create inequality. In addition, commercialization will affect public education. For example, good teachers will definitely go to the sea (just look at the annual salary inside and outside the fence) , which will exacerbate this situation.
Then the policy will interfere.
The essence of medical care at least seems to be that commercialization is beneficial to universal benefits (technical development will reduce medical costs, inequality is phased, and long-term equalization) .
This gave me an initiation.
Later, I happened to have a suitable job opportunity, so I stopped paying attention to the field of education. During the period, many headhunters and HRs came to look for it. After the chat, it was difficult to distinguish the pros and cons. I only felt that the things they were doing were similar and a bit foggy.
The fog is heavy because, instead of calling online education an Internet innovation industry, it is actually a labor-intensive training and education industry, which is not much different from traditional offline training institutions.
The core is reflected in three aspects:
- Good lecturers and good course content are still scarce resources and core competitiveness;
- AI algorithms and new technologies (VR, AR, smart hardware, etc.) have never been just assistance, without fundamental optimization;
- In most online education companies, the content/teaching and research teams and sales teams are the ones with more power to speak. The production and research teams are very marginal, at least in terms of salary than other Internet companies.
The most fundamental should be the second point, which leads to the first point (because technology cannot replace real lecturers and good content for the time being) and the third point (technology is not the core, so it depends on content and operation) .
In K12 education, the core value of teachers is not in the oral content itself, but in attracting the attention of students (think about the classroom performances of New Oriental teachers) and the interaction after expressing the content (determining whether the students are listening and mastering) . This is the value that hard-coded content cannot provide.
Therefore, it is difficult to replace small class and private teaching with purely recorded content and interactive game courses.
If it is a two-sided platform, then it will be caught in another dilemma: whether to give full play to the creativity of the lecturer and highlight the lecturer’s IP, or to make it into a standardized service form that is more standardized and more like B2C.
The former has the best teaching effect and provides better content, but it is easy for lecturers to switch jobs solo; the latter does not worry about this problem, but greatly weakens the core value of being a teacher just mentioned (attracting attention + feedback based interaction ) .
Therefore, we see that the online education company that has done a good job in the head is the New Oriental that has chosen the online version of the former.
As for why AI and new technologies have not revolutionized the education industry, here are a few examples:
- Adaptive algorithms require big data to support. The knowledge points of most disciplines are trivial and scattered. Only after doing question A can you know whether you have mastered knowledge point A, that is of little significance-if the algorithm is accurate, all the questions must be completed, so just go straight to the question. What is the use of the algorithm?
- The so-called strong interactive form of gamification teaching is actually recording some branch videos, which seem to be substitutes for real people. In fact, students have no sense of substitution, which is not much different from traditional video-based questions. As long as they are not real people, students will still be distracted and inefficient.
- The common question search function is said to be AI technology processing. In fact, there are countless part-time teachers like streamers doing the questions on the spot.
- I don’t understand smart hardware at all. Can anyone explain how a certain learning lamp disguised as a smart education hardware is actually a Xiaomi speaker can make students study vigorously?
This is only my personal observation.
Of course, what I am discussing is that the Internet and new technologies have not fundamentally transformed the education industry. There is no denying that the online version of New Oriental still has new value, reducing transaction costs such as teaching costs.
Because of the above reasons, online education has almost no scale effect, network effect and other common effects of Internet platforms, and it is still a labor-intensive business.
It can also be seen from the business model: basically it costs 6 yuan to make 10 yuan.
It is precisely because online education is mostly an online version of New Oriental, that the influence of the policy has spread so widely.
Just imagine, if a set of adaptive learning algorithms can significantly improve student performance, you should directly apply for a fund from the Academy of Social Sciences, and then promote it to primary and secondary schools across the country through the Ministry of Education. The To G business is doing well.
As for why there is such a policy, I have also mentioned it earlier. The essence is two words: fertility. At present, among the people’s livelihood, education and real estate affect the people’s willingness to bear the most.
There are two big mountains on the upward path of education: one is the education expenditure before the college entrance examination. Commercialization of non-compulsory education can greatly reduce this family’s parenting expenditure and eliminate inequality; the other is the college entrance examination system itself. The transformation is more arduous and difficult, but it does not look like a fantasy.
Seeing a piece of magical news on July 25, Xueda Education began to lay out catering and coffee.
The logic is also smooth: Xueda Education has a large number of learning centers, and the business district is well located. After offline education is closed, it has transformed into a coffee shop, and there may be a chance to become the next Ruixing.
Come to think of it, these companies also have special skills.
For smart hardware, there are designers, products, and technology supply chains, directly transforming the smart home ecological chain, and can compete with Xiaomi.
Those with government relations can replicate the success of Alibaba Cloud, transform To G, and make customized products and teaching tools with local education bureaus (the byte does have a high-quality new project “Jikao Big Data”) .
I am not very optimistic about turning to quality education in arts and sports. Once the education is linked to the cost of education, it will put pressure on everyone, and it is also the scope of policy supervision.
Ape Guidance can directly transform the service program to Ape, without even changing the name. The programmer searched for questions, and the “big data” teachers behind the platform wrote code responses on the spot.
You can take advantage of the trend to introduce dog tutoring for product managers and lion tutoring for designers.
It is also possible to introduce courses such as social animal interview counseling, social animal psychological counseling, and social animal arrogant counseling.
The teachers of New Oriental are all highly skilled and can do live broadcasts or up-hosts at station B. The company is converted to MCN on the spot, and the original organizational structure does not need to be changed.
Don’t forget, Teacher Luo Xiang belongs to the law examination training institution.
The world is changing too fast, and it is estimated that Marquez will like it very much. Everyone has a bright future.
At the 2016 China Green Company Annual Meeting, Jack Ma said this:
“Future education must be there, and New Oriental may not be there.”
Teacher Ma is still great.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/talk-about-online-education/
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