Short-term “prophet” overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The latest CFTC CME Bitcoin holdings weekly report (August 24-August 30) released on September 3 shows that the total Bitcoin standard contract holdings rose from 13302 to 14440, a value that has risen for two consecutive weeks and hit a record high. A new high in the past five statistical cycles. Although the price of Bitcoin fell again in the latest statistical cycle and officially fell below the 20,000 integer mark, the market participation has further increased. Under this background, the direction of the adjustment of various accounts is even more worthy of attention.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of the largest dealer account has increased from 59 to 173, and the short position has increased from 1968 to 2048. The net air-conditioning positions carried out in the last statistical period of such accounts did not continue, and relatively conservative long and short positions were carried out in the latest statistical period. Two-way simultaneous increase in holdings, and the hedged position has also increased from 0 to 187, the short-term participation willingness of dealer accounts has increased significantly, but such accounts have not shown a particularly strong willingness to continue chasing shorts at the current stage. Institutional accounts with a firm bearish attitude over time have shown a hesitant attitude at the moment, which shows that the current market direction preference is not very clear.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of asset management institutions further fell from 6368 to 5823, and the short position further rose from 1144 to 1410, which reached a record high. Asset management institutions have carried out net air conditioning for the third consecutive statistical cycle, and have carried out a very aggressive increase in short positions. Asset management institutions are still the type of account with the most clear ideas. As mentioned in the last weekly report, The status of such accounts as “prophet” in the recent period of time is still impeccable. Judging from their accurate judgments and the performance of the market, the probability of further decline in the market outlook is still higher.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of leveraged funds has risen from 2804 to 3928, which is a new high for a full 85 weeks, which means that the last similar value has to be traced back to January 2021, and the short position has risen from 7502 to 7908. In the latest statistical cycle, leveraged funds once again carried out a two-way simultaneous increase in long and short positions. Among them, the increase in long positions was considerable, and the proportion of long positions returned to more than 30% for the first time in 57 weeks.

Although leveraged funds have maintained a lack of sense of direction to increase and decrease positions in the past period of time, and the latest statistical cycle is still continuing this idea of ​​position adjustment, but due to the rather aggressive performance of long-term increase in the latest statistical cycle, Leveraged funds have expressed their long-lost unilateral inclination. Such accounts have begun to aggressively go long in the context of the continuous decline in the market, which has added some “difficulty” to confirming the overall long-short preference of the market.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long positions of large accounts increased from 1597 to 1928, and the short positions increased from 449 to 517. In the latest statistical period, large accounts also increased their long and short positions simultaneously. There was no significant change in the ratio of long and short positions. After the net-long position adjustment, the large account did not reverse its thinking when the market fell further, but the position adjustment logic of the latest statistical cycle is similar to that of the largest dealer account, which is a relatively conservative choice.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of retail investors fell from 1141 to 996, and the short position rose from 906 to 965. In the latest statistical cycle, retail investors once again carried out a clear net air-conditioning position. The background of the falling market is not surprising.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

In general, the market entanglement in the latest statistical cycle has further intensified. In addition to asset management institutions continuing to resolutely increase their short positions and the normalization of retail investors to follow the trend, the dealers and net-long positions that carried out net air-conditioning warehouses in the previous statistical cycle. The big players have chosen the conservative two-way proportional synchronous increase. What is more surprising is that the leveraged fund suddenly increased its overweight by an astonishingly large amount after struggling for a few months. Under the premise that the downward trend of the market has not reversed, whether the leveraged fund can “compete” with the promotion of more convincing asset management institutions. The market has stopped falling, and it is worth watching next.

The total holdings of Bitcoin micro-contracts dropped from 24,932 to 16,342. Different from the increase in holdings of standard contracts, the micro-contracts reduced their holdings by a considerable amount, and the total holdings hit a new low in nearly eight statistical cycles.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of the dealer account decreased from 1101 to 182, and the short position increased from 0 to 178. The dealer account has a clear net air-conditioning position in the micro contract. Under the condition that the standard contract adjustment is relatively conservative, this kind of account is passed through the micro contract. The contract expressed some bearish attitude, which is similar to the position adjustment idea in the last statistical period of this type of account, so it is believed that the preference of the dealer account remains bearish.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of the asset management institution’s account decreased from 186 to 140, and the short position increased from 1138 to 1162. The asset management institution also carried out a net air-conditioning position in the micro contract, and the adjustment direction is the same as that of the standard contract. This type of account is short-term. Nei’s bearish attitude is quite clear.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of leveraged funds increased from 3880 to 4232, and the short position decreased from 17872 to 10629. The leveraged fund made a clear net long position in the micro contract, which further consolidated the bullish attitude of such accounts in the standard contract. , accounts such as leveraged funds have indeed shown long-lost execution in the latest statistical cycle, and they are currently in the camp with a strong bullish outlook.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of large accounts decreased from 13473 to 7082, and the short position decreased from 1296 to 793. Large accounts have simultaneously reduced their long and short positions in the micro-contract. Although the long position has been nearly halved, it is compatible with the bidirectional exchange of such accounts in the standard contract. The choice of simultaneous increase in holdings did not give much additional directional information, and the thinking of large investors in the latest statistical cycle was generally conservative.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

The long position of retail investors has dropped from 3248 to 2695, and the short position has dropped from 1582 to 1569. Retail investors have not adjusted their positions in the micro-contracts much, and do not do too much interpretation.

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

Short-term "prophet" overweight and short-selling such accounts unexpectedly bucked the market and aggressively grabbed more

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