On February 15th, the first share of the Metaverse, Roblox, released its 21Q4 results, down 15%. What is the problem?Overall, Booking $770 million vs. $772 million expected; EPS -$0.25 vs. -$0.07 expected. That is to say, revenue was basically within expectations, and losses exceeded expectations.
(Note: Market consensus Roblox uses Booking flow instead of Revenue to reflect revenue, because users will deferred consumption after recharging.)
The current environment is very unfriendly to growth stocks, especially unprofitable ones, which is one of the important reasons for Roblox’s decline (refer to Sea Q3’s performance, revenue and guidance both exceeded expectations, and EPS fell short of expectations). Another key issue lies in the core data of January-
According to official disclosures, the DAU in January was 54.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 32%, slightly lower than the 57 million expected by some buyers, but it is not a big problem. The main problem is that the turnover is 220 million-223 million US dollars, an increase of only 2%-3% year-on-year, which also brings about a 22%-23% year-on-year drop in ABPDAU (average daily active user turnover). In other words, the growth rate of user recharges has not kept up with the growth in the number of users themselves.
The capital market has always been expected to trade, and in a situation where everyone is worried that everyone will no longer recharge their love for the Metaverse, it is naturally a big wave of selling. This scenario has appeared many times this earnings season, including giants Meta (-26%) and Netflix (-21%).
Roblox has become another microcosm of the market’s escape from the consumer Internet.
Take a closer look at other core data.
The growth of DAU is relatively stable, maintaining at 30%+ year-on-year. In terms of the average usage time of users, Q4 was 2.42 hours per day, which was a decrease from the previous month, but the absolute amount was still considerable, and in the case of a substantial increase in users, the year-on-year increase did not decrease much, and the overall model improved.
The growth model of turnover and ABPDAU is relatively weak: Q4 turnover was US$770 million, a year-on-year increase of 20%; ABPDAU was US$15.57, down 10% from US$17.3 in the same period last year, mainly reflecting that new users did not keep up with the speed of recharging. Regarding this, it can be seen from the following figure:
As shown in the figure, by dividing the growth of DAU by region, it can be found that North America has basically no growth, and the growth rate of Europe (+23%) is also lower than the overall growth rate. The growth is actually mainly driven by Asia Pacific (+101%) and the rest of the world (+46%). These high-growth regions are generally developing countries, and their consumption power is not as good as that of Europe and the United States.
On the cost side, the cost of revenue increased by 93%, surpassing the revenue growth rate (83%) for the first time in the past year. Developers and infrastructure are the main cost side, and their proportion in the running water is basically stable, with 21% and 12% respectively in Q4. The proportion of personnel costs is also relatively stable, at 16% in Q4.EBITDA/Bookings 21.8% is also a good level.
To sum up, Roblox’s financial report is not bad. The main reason for the market sell-off is that the growth rate of running water does not match the growth rate of DAU. In addition, in the tightening environment, unprofitable ps shares are particularly affected.
At present, the valuation of Roblox (after-hours -15%) P/Booking is about 13.3x, which is at a low level (although it is still not cheap), but according to the trend of the running water model, it may not be possible to restore market confidence in the short term. of.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/roblox-dives-15-the-market-talks-about-metaverse-discoloration/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.