It is interesting to note that we have not heard anyone talking about the “eternal bull market” in the last month.
What was the market in March when Bitcoin was at $60,000? Looking back at the past, many people would say it was a bull market. So what market is bitcoin at 33k today? This question is divisive. Some say it’s a pullback in a bull market, others say it’s a bear market on the way. That’s always the case. Everyone looks back on the past, but how many people can look forward to the future with a straight face? It can be seen that it is difficult to predict the future, and past experience is not enough to train. On 3/18, Liu taught the chain to write about “the length of the cycle is not enough to talk about bulls and bears”, in which he wrote that bitcoin was once on the 60,000-dollar mark, when a theory called “eternal bull market theory” was once popular in the market, “which means that after this bull market, there will be no more bull and bear transitions like the past three. That is to say, after this bull market, there will be no more bear market, as in the past three bull-bear transitions, with huge declines followed by three years of no previous highs, but a continuous bull market rhythm, wave after wave. The article continues, “I say there will not be (an eternal bull market),” and points out that “if the top of the current bull market reaches $150,000-$200,000 (breaking the million RMB mark), a pullback to $50,000-$60,000, a 60-70% drop, would be enough to declare the end of the current bull market and the beginning of the next round of the beginning of the bear market.”
The “real” end of the bull market has not yet been reached until 2022, with a sharp drop of around 70%, just 2 months after the 3/18 article on 5/19, the mid-round pullback plunge began, with bitcoin being pinned down to 29,000 overnight, and a new low on 6/22, advancing to 28,800. Relative to ATH 60,0004800, the maximum limit drop has reached 55.55%. 5555, “woo woo woo woo”, happens to be a harmonic stalk, is this the sobbing sound of relocated miners, whacked out longs, and loss-making leeks? Is this harmonic stalk the mockery of leeks by the bankers behind the scenes? But a glance at the real market, the stable top is just at 58-60, according to 5/10 “One big crash away from the second half” [link] said “a 40% level retracement”, the bottom is set at 34-36, so the current price, ignoring the unstable transient bottoming (look at the weekly), can be considered to be at reasonably low flying, slightly oversold situation. But this is such a simple mid-round retracement, has already made many 60,000 knife when the “believers” lost faith, 60,000 knife when running into the field, a thousand miles to send the head of the “brave” scared out of their wits. A very interesting phenomenon is that I have not heard anyone talk about the “eternal bull market” in the last month.
This time, I will talk about this “eternal bull market”. I vaguely remember two of the main arguments for the eternal bull market.
First, bitcoin has been less inflationary than the dollar since it was halved in May 2020. Second, this bull market is different from the past, it used to be retail investors, swarmed and scattered, this time it is Wall Street institutions into the field, professional, stable, long-termism. Do not believe? If you don’t believe me, I’ll show you the 10-year bull market of U.S. stocks VS the 3,000 points of A-shares (led by retail investors).
At that time to discuss these two, “faith” over reason, is not to discuss anything. Now a pot of cold water poured down the market, perhaps you can calmly think about it. First, for the first point. The first point is that after bitcoin production was cut in half last year, the single block bonus was cut in half to 6.25 BTC, so one year is 6.25624*365 = 328,500 BTC. bitcoin inventory is now about 18.7 million pieces, so you can calculate the annual inflation rate is about 32.85/1870 = 1.76%. Someone was smart enough to immediately recall that the Federal Reserve has said that dollar monetary policy is to ensure that long-term U.S. inflation tracks the 2% target value.
See the problem? The bitcoin inflation rate, as described above, and the long-term U.S. inflation rate, are not even close to the same concept. Bitcoin’s inflation rate, follows the original meaning of the word inflation, while the long-term U.S. inflation rate, uses the mainstream, but doctored semantics of today.
Wouldn’t it be funny to have a hen laying eggs compare swimming with a monkey climbing a tree?
And again, the second point. Are institutions smarter and more professional than retail investors? Intelligence and professionalism seem to be contradictory. Because, obviously, if one is smart enough, then one should anticipate the big pullback in the middle and choose to escape the top. How can you explain that they are smart by pulling out the list of institutions that hold coins costing 50,000 or 55,000 or more? And if they escaped the top and became a smashing force, they are obviously not professional enough, that is, steady long-termism, holding coins for a long time, not afraid of ups and downs, and able to support the eternal bull market. They held the coin, but apparently did not support it, but was trapped.
The sky is going to rain, the mother is going to marry, and bitcoin is going to fall in the middle. The way of God, the way of man, the way of machines. It’s all things that human beings can’t fight. Not for retail investors, not for institutions. Everyone is equal before bitcoin, and institutions are no exception. Bitcoin does not have authority, nor is it forced. Bitcoin is game theory. Everyone is equal in front of game theory, and institutions are no exception. There are institutions that choose to be professional (hedge), and there are institutions that choose to be smart (smash). This is the free market, the spirit of Bitcoin, permissionless, no permission required, anyone is free to participate, freedom to come and go. In a super free financial environment, institutions are not all docile sheep. The current round of institutions into the field, is it to give our retail investors to carry the sedan, do charity? You do not see the A shares complained of too much regulatory interference with a high proportion of retail shareholders, while the more free and open U.S. stocks are dominated by institutions? If retail investors can make money by themselves, why do they need institutions to do it for them? If the retail investors are speculating on their own, whose service fees do the institutions earn? Only when the retail investors are flattened, cut and killed, so that they tremble and dare not enter the market on their own, can they obediently hand over their money to the institutions to take care of, and take responsibility for their own profits and losses, so that the institutions can make money lying down. This is the true face of the wolves of Wall Street.
The currency market can only be more free and open than the U.S. stock market, less regulated. Here, the bankers can spread rumors, create panic, take advantage of external news cover, concentrate chips and funds, manipulate the price trend, draw any chart line that can fool the eyes of the leeks, fiercely fight and kill, severely cut leeks. Look at the recent several fierce battle plunge, how can the rabble of retail investors focus on 1, 2 hours to make the same direction of operation, and accurately hit a certain price level, to complete the burst harvest it? You can be sure that the institutions, bankers, big money for.
Retailers how to fight? Eight words. Lie flat leeks can not cut, in the short violent down kill on the way to intercept the cheap chips. The snipe and the clam fight, the fishermen gain. Let the short sellers work for you for free, discount, does not smell good?
Only, there is no “eternal bull market”. This is the biggest message and the most valuable conclusion brought to us by the successful plunge retracement in the midfield.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/no-one-talks-about-eternal-bull-market-anymore/
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