“Portrait NFTs will collapse within 20 days.”
This statement came from Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of Lebit Mining Pool, because he predicted in 2018 that ” BCH will become a real Bitcoin in 2021, and BTC will die due to severe congestion in 2020-2021.” And the facts are serious. He was biased, so Jiang Zhuoer’s behavior as a “whistleblower” when he was swiped by Loot in the entire circle on September 3 did not arouse most people’s vigilance, but made people feel that he was sensationalizing.
Now, 7 days have passed since Jiang Zhuoer issued the “whistle”, and various signs indicate that the portrait NFT is indeed on the verge of collapse.
Sign 1: New projects that have been hotly grabbed have fallen below the issue price
TheSevens is a popular NFT that recently triggered “GASWAR”.
How hot is it? 7000 NFTs were swept away within 8 minutes of starting the casting! Ultrasound data shows that within 24 hours of its start (in fact, less than 8 minutes), SevensToken burned about 1280 ETH , second only to Opensea.
The casting fee of TheSevens is 0.07ETH+GAS fee. At the beginning of the casting (at 3 a.m. Beijing time on September 8th), the GAS fee is not high, only 0.02ETH, so the actual cost of casting is about 0.09ETH.
The GAS fee is derived from the product of GasPrice and GasLimit. The unit of GasPrice is Gwei, 1Gwei=0.000000001ETH. Generally speaking, “GASWAR” refers to the abnormal surge of GASPrice in a short period of time. The GAS fee here refers to TransactionFee. As shown in the figure below, the value corresponding to GasPrice is 138Gwei, which cannot be called “GASWAR”. The GAS fee is 0.02ETH.
In the Nuggets NFT, the first opportunity is very, very important. A few seconds later, the cost may be an order of magnitude worse. For example, the time of the following minting is in the same block, there is almost no difference in time, but you see, the GAS fee has been spent 0.9ETH, and the GasPrice has been pulled to 5500Gwei, which has already triggered “GASWAR”. The actual casting cost is 0.98 ETH, which is 10 times more expensive than the previous one.
In the final stage, GASPrice has exploded, even exceeding 10,000.
After 7 minutes, the NFT casting is all completed. When the last NFT was minted, the GASPrice was as high as 8000, the GAS fee was 1.32ETH, and the actual casting cost was 1.4ETH.
The reason why someone dared to cast the explosion of GASPrice in the final stage, maybe the project promised to support the floor price after the issuance before the issuance, so that it will not be less than 0.7ETH, which is equivalent to a disguised promise that you can earn About 10 times the profit.
Experience tells us that when the project party blatantly promises to underpin, it is usually either zero or zero in the later stage.
According to OpenSea data, the current floor price of TheSevens is 0.58 ETH. This means that if the NFT minted in the final stage has not been sold, it is conservatively estimated that it has lost half of it.
In addition, according to Nansen data, the average price, highest transaction price, sales, number of transactions, and the number of buyers of TheSevens in the past 24 hours have all fallen steeply.
In the past week, new NFT projects have emerged in an endless stream, especially driven by Loot, various imitation disks (SLoot, BLoot, Mloot, PLAOT, Xloot, XXXLoot…) have emerged. After a gust of hype, these projects have recently Few people mentioned it. Which ones can stay in the future, maybe time will tell us the answer.
Sign 2: Star projects are in a liquidity crisis
CryptoPunks is an iconic NFT vane. On August 23, under the influence of VISA purchase and the entry of many domestic tycoons , there was a FOMO boom. In just 4 hours, 16,000 ETH was sold, which is equivalent to 53.38 million U.S. dollars. Less than a week later, the floor price of CryptoPunks was pushed up to 140 ETH, almost doubled.
Just half a month later, the craze quickly dissipated.
According to OpenSea data, CryptoPunks’ transaction volume and transaction volume both reached new lows on September 9. Among them, there were only 5 transactions, a record low since June 19. Compared with the historical peak transaction volume of 354 transactions on August 23, a decrease of 98.5%. The turnover was 522 ETH, a record low since July 25, which was 98.8% less than the historical peak turnover of 43,871 ETH on August 28.
The floor price is also declining along with liquidity. The current floor price of CryptoPunks is 85 ETH, which is 40% lower than the historical high.
The top stream is still the case, not to mention other NFT projects.
BoredApeYachtClub, which ranks second in total sales, had 27 transactions yesterday, a 98.5% reduction from the peak (1811). The turnover was 1166 ETH, a record low since July 25, which was 92.9% less than the historical peak turnover (16425 ETH).
What is NFT? A piece of blank paper sold for 200,000, 24 words sold for 1.1 million, and a “JPG stone” sold for 20 million. This is NFT.
Surprise, accident, incredible? Look at the lines in “Let the Bullets Fly”, you will understand:
“You have to let the gentry pay the money first, and bring the people to donate. The tyrants donate, and the people donate. After the money is received, the gentry’s money will be returned as much as the people’s money, and the people’s money will be divided between three and seven.”
Maybe you didn’t look down on the NFT at first, it doesn’t matter, then keep going up until you “get it up”. When you finally can’t help but buy an NFT and bend into the game, the show is over.
Just now, DeFi and NFT super player Shenyu said, NFT dreams.
Wan Hui, the founding partner of Primitive Ventures, has also repeatedly reminded the risk, “Under subjective value judgment, everything is worth imagining. So everything can be speculated, everything is bubble, no one will care about the final delivery of the value carrier afterwards.”
In this game, who is the biggest winner? OpenSea, Ethereum miners and issuers of NFT assets correspond to real estate agencies, banks, and real estate companies, respectively.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/nft-dream-falling-below-the-issue-price-and-falling-into-a-liquidity-crisis/
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