Netflix’s user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

The North American film market has undergone new changes.

The North American film market has undergone new changes. The streaming media market represented by Netflix has become calmer, and Hollywood studios such as Disney and Warner Bros. have begun to compete for the box office. All this seems to indicate that the online traffic dividend will dissipate and the offline box office market. Usher in recovery.

Yesterday (July 21), Netflix released its second-quarter financial report. In the second quarter, revenue was US$7.342 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and net profit was US$1.353 billion, a year-on-year increase of 87.9%.

Netflix's user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

In addition to revenue, user data is not glamorous. Statistics show that between April and June, Netflix added 1.5 million new subscribers worldwide, which is a far cry from the tens of millions of new subscribers in the same period last year. Netflix has long anticipated this situation. In 2020, no matter how users grow, Netflix’s mentality is always “It will pass.”

But this undoubtedly gave the public a warning that the user dividend in the Hollywood streaming market has faded.

At the same time, although Hollywood studios still maintain the mode of mixing and matching streaming media and theater chains, as Hollywood studios “Black Widow” and ” Slam Dunk 2: New Legend” (hereinafter referred to as “Gun” “Basket 2”) and other IP blockbusters are released, and a new battle has emerged in the offline box office market.

The online and offline changes in Hollywood reveal market changes invisibly. Although the major studios still adopt a synchronous distribution model, streaming media screenings on various platforms affect the box office market to a certain extent, but the market is all profitable, and the theaters only have the box office cashing ability, and the studios are fighting against each other. The war is about to start.

Streaming media user dividends fade, offline theaters regain the right to speak?

“Our business is performing well. On a comparable basis, our customer churn has actually decreased compared to the situation in 2019, and user watch time and engagement have increased by nearly 20%.” Netflix CFO Spencer · Newman explained after the earnings report was released.

Netflix’s 1.5 million new subscribers in the second quarter did not meet market expectations. Some analysts on Wall Street believe that under the impact of new platforms such as Disney+ and HBO MAX, Netflix’s “first mover advantage” is no longer obvious and the company needs new Growth drivers.

Netflix is ​​more calm about this number. Compared with increasing investment in content warfare, Netflix is ​​aware of the gap after the epidemic subsides. “User acquisition has still been affected. As the epidemic is coming to an end and the market restarts, user acquisition growth has slowed to a certain extent.”

This invisibly heralds the upcoming changes in the streaming media market. As the impact of the epidemic subsides, the online dividend of streaming media will also quickly diminish. In 2021, there are many streaming media platforms in Hollywood, and the user market is limited, which means that there are too many people to live with. When the external causes of the epidemic are eliminated, competition in the streaming media market will only become more intense and difficult.

At present, giant studios such as Disney and Warner Bros. are attracting users with IP content and price wars. Everyone knows that this state will not last. Eventually, the platform will face the problem of how to balance content costs and paid revenue.

The reduction of dividends in the streaming media market has changed the relationship between Hollywood studios and theaters again. Cinemas are no longer a completely disadvantaged role, but regain the right to speak with the recovery of the offline market.

North American theaters recently protested against Disney’s mashup release of “Black Widow”. According to the National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO), if “Black Widow” is released exclusively in theaters, the box office will be higher than $80 million, and the life cycle will be longer. A sharp drop of 67.3% in the second week.

Netflix's user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

The theater line expressed doubts about the “self-produced and self-sold” model of studios. Although Hollywood studios already have a streaming media, from upstream film production to downstream film distribution, it can be done independently. However, skipping movie theaters or mashup releases lost part of the box office revenue and exacerbated the problem of piracy.

More importantly, the proud online payment income of the studios is actually at the expense of platform distribution income in exchange , because their own platform broadcasts exclusively, and there is a high probability that they will not distribute copyrights. At the same time, streaming media also needs to split a portion of its revenue from smart terminal devices such as Apple TV and Roku.

From the perspective of audiences, streaming media is distributed simultaneously with theater chains, and streaming media is exclusively distributed, which may not be able to attract more audiences to watch the work.

Netflix's user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

These statements are obviously from the standpoint of theaters, pointing out the problems caused by streaming media disrupting the movie market. At present, streaming media and theater distribution are still in the exploratory stage, and the boundary between the pros and cons is not obvious, and it may not be possible to truly calculate which model can create greater benefits.

But users dividend at low tide apparently so studios were streaming from the pressure of cross God, war, and began to think about new issues, streaming media and theater sync with the on-line strategy Should the epidemic together to dissipate, if the answer is no, then the new stage How should the studios handle the relationship between the two?

“Slam Dunk 2” chased “Black Widow”, who won the studio’s release melee?

The ebb and flow seems to be an echo of the online streaming media market. The offline box office market has begun to ferment, blockbuster movies have entered, and theater box offices have begun to heat up.

Last week, the Warner Bros. sports-themed movie was officially released in the North American film market. The box office of the film reached 11.3 million U.S. dollars per day, surpassing the Disney Marvel blockbuster “Black Widow” released the previous week, and also surpassing Warner Bros.’s previously released “Goss”. “La Fight King Kong” and “Call of Souls 3” and other points, set a record for the best opening of the Warner Bros. movie during the epidemic.

Netflix's user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

The impact of the epidemic on the global film market has slowly receded, so you might as well take “Slam Dunk 2” as a starting point to observe the movie record of Hollywood studios during the epidemic.

According to incomplete statistics, starting from “Creed” in September 2020, Warner Bros. has released a total of 13 movies. Among them, in addition to “The Blockade” and “Zach Schneider’s Justice League” and other online films, theaters and streaming The number of movies released simultaneously by the media has reached 10 mashups. “Slam Dunk 2” is the 10th film released during the Warner Bros. epidemic.

Netflix's user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

(Column of cost coverage, excluding streaming media payment income)

According to the data that can be determined so far, it will be found that the success and failure rate of the movie box office during the Warner Bros. epidemic is half and half. “Creed” is only shown in theaters. The global box office reached 363 million U.S. dollars, while the film cost reached 200 million U.S. dollars. For the time being, regardless of factors such as film publicity and promotion costs and the theater share ratio, the movie box office covered the cost.

The DC Super British IP film “Wonder Woman 1984” fell a little bit. The film was Warner Bros’ first mashup release. Although it brought a wave of user traffic to the streaming media HBO MAX, the cost of the film reached 200 million U.S. dollars. The global box office was only 166 million US dollars.

Netflix's user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

In fact, the IP blockbuster adopts a mashup distribution model, which can be regarded as opening a new road to monetization. The theater and streaming media pay double dividends , such as “Godzilla vs. King Kong”, “Cat and Mouse”, “Spoiler 3”, etc. Although the box office results are not counted. Bright, but can cover the cost. However, small and medium-sized movies such as “Judas and the Black Messiah” and “On the Heights” are basically lost.

This is a common phenomenon. Streaming media distribution has made up for the lack of theaters during the epidemic, and user traffic seems to be booming, but it does not mean that the platform has really won.

In contrast, Disney will force point in a spinoff set and the animated film, the movie is not much real IP. In September 2020, “Mulan” was the starting point, and a total of 6 movies were screened. Compared with the strategy of Warner Bros. Cinema and streaming media, Disney is more inclined to streaming media. Pixar’s “Spiritual Journey” and “Summer Friends Sunny Day” are not shown in North American theaters. The impact of the epidemic has not been released on a large scale in theaters.

Netflix's user dividends faded, and Hollywood resumed its “offline” box office battle?

(Column of cost coverage, excluding streaming media payment income)

Although these movies have brought a lot of users and online bonuses to Disney+, for example, the global box office of “Black Widow” was US$215 million during the first weekend of its release, of which Disney+ paid US$60 million in revenue, while “Mulan” did not announce specific revenue. , But the number of viewers of the streaming media in the four days of launch is about 1.12 million. But obviously in the theater market, the overlord Disney has obviously converged a lot, not pursuing the number of theaters, but seeking stability.

And as the overseas film market returns to normal, the competition among the studios for the cinema market seems to be returning. At present, in the North American box office market, Disney’s “Black Widow” takes the lead , and Warner Bros.’s “Slam Dunk 2” is catching up. Single-day box office iterations have occurred repeatedly, but there is still a gap between the two sides in cumulative box office volume. Data shows that “Slam Dunk 2” reached $31.65 million in the first weekend box office, which is the best result of Warner Bros. film during the epidemic. As of the time of writing, the film’s global box office reached 53.15 million U.S. dollars.

Although the small-cost horror film “Escape Room 2” from Sony Pictures has limited box office harvesting capacity, it has also gained a share in the market. The current global box office has reached 13.3 million U.S. dollars. Universal Pictures’ “Quick Attack 9” was released for nearly a month and continued to release its long-tail value. The cumulative global box office has reached 591 million US dollars.

Obviously, the overseas film market has new troubles. The streaming media market has become calm, the offline box office market has officially recovered, and the game between studios and theaters has restarted. After streaming media has entered the market, how to maximize the value of movies between streaming media and theaters This approach has become a new subject for the studios at this stage.

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