Market moves have been bad, but things have gotten worse after early institutions unlocked as major funds dumped millions of already depressed assets. Let’s look at a recent example and analyze how to protect yourself.
Last week, the BETA project caught my attention in the “Smart Money Inflow” section, which is a loan market project, and I am very optimistic about young experimental loan products – I think there is still room for innovation in this vertical field, the bear market Smart Money’s The influx also makes it stand out.
It turns out that the inflow came from attribution unlocking, checking the big single panel, we found that the multi-signature address sent nearly 35 million tokens (worth $4.2 million) to the deployer, which in turn sent them to a dozen investors, the investment here The names align with 2021 funding news.
(Pro tip: savvy on-chain censors should allocate through 5 unmarked wallets to find the unmarked GSR wallet! Might do a thread later in the funding announcement/allocation to mark the fund address)
Even though BETA’s TVL is attracting money, the price is flattening out, so it’s still worth a look. But the premise is, who is holding and who is selling?
Disclaimer: For the purposes of this article, we assume that VC funds sent to Binance will be sold immediately.
First, let’s take a look at Spartan Group’s positions:
They received 6 million tokens on Tuesday, and according to Nansen’s new feature http://Apeboard.Finance, we can find that this is an interesting wallet: despite receiving a large number of unlocks, they haven’t since April active.
Summary: Salute to them!
6 hours after receiving the 6 million tokens, they moved to another tokenized address, and have transferred about 700,000 tokens in batches to several unlabeled wallets, finally arriving at the Binance deposit address, presumably for selling;
Summary: Partial sell
Next, Sequoia India
Another hardcore hodler’s wallet that hasn’t moved since October 2021.
Next up is Delphi Digital : they haven’t sold this month’s 2.5 million tokens, but they did sell their December and March unlocked tokens last month, which were transferred to an untagged token before being sent to Binance wallet.
Summary: sell in batches.
Next up is Multicoin . Like Delphi, they haven’t moved the May unlocks to the exchange, but the December and March unlocks were sold on Binance in a matter of days.
Summary: Slow sell-off
Defiance, on the other hand, is a true master of selling.
They went to Binance for sale within 15 minutes of the latest unlock. And for the unlock in March, it took them less than an hour to ship.
Summary: The Master of Selling
Finally, there is Three Arrows Capital . Although their selling action did not reach the minute level, they also completed the selling within a day.
TL;DR: 5 of the 7 institutions are selling their unlocked tokens, and some are even outpacing others.
Based on this, I personally decided not to do further research based on BETA for the time being. I will use the unlocking sell-off as an observation indicator to follow my favorite projects, such as LDO.
In some ecosystems, the ongoing sell-off is brutal. There’s a great infographic in Wangarian’s tweet. Some projects in the figure have a very low proportion of the circulation.
That said, there will be more unlocking sell-offs in anticipation of further price declines.
Source: Wangarian tweet
Even more incredible is that some of the sellers also openly admitted their selling behavior. Some zombie projects may be the hardest hit by the sell-off.
However, you can also protect yourself.
Last month, a Nansen user managed to escape the top and avoid millions of dollars in losses by using the “Smart Alerts” feature to monitor UST transfers on Curve.
You can also set up Smart Alerts to monitor token movements from deployer addresses.
I will be looking at selling behavior more often, especially for those high FDV, low unlock rate ecosystems.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/nansen-analysis-which-vc-runs-the-fastest-after-the-token-is-unlocked/
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