Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (3)

The original text is from Messari, the original title is “Crypto Theses for 2022”

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (2)

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (1)

Chapter 7 DeFi2.0

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

In the first chapter of this section, we introduced the core parts of Web3: NFTs (identities and unique digital assets), Metaverse’s blockchain registration “land”, and the decentralized hardware network that will carry all of these. The next three chapters are all about how we manage financial systems in virtual worlds, expand their infrastructure to accommodate billions of users (humans and machines), and manage them over time.

We will start with the development of decentralized financial systems (DeFi). Although most DeFi blue chips have experienced a relative bear market (compared to ETH YTD, many blue chips have fallen by 80% or more), there is still a lot of new development this year. .

Before we dive into DeFi, let’s start with the currency that connects the old and new worlds.

1.USDT bridge

To the chagrin of Bitfinex’ed and short sellers everywhere, Tether is unlikely to fail, and it is unlikely to end this cryptocurrency bull market. If this happens, the death of Tether’s USDT is more likely to be taken over by the US government than a bank run by the company’s depositors.

When using Tether, things will never be what they seem, so I understand the mainstream confusion. This is actually very simple, I will reiterate what I said on Tether last year:

“Tether’s de facto supporters (major crypto exchanges and market makers in the world) are likely to cover up the risk of USDT, because there is no obvious substitute for the almost universally accepted dollar-denominated reserve. This year’s settlement (NYAG&CFTC) will not affect the market. Big, this may lead some people to conclude that the worst-case scenario for Tether is to enter other stablecoins in an orderly manner. But it’s one thing to transfer funds from a perpetual contract on one platform to another, as we did last year BitMEX sees it. Transferring the seized dollar reserves to the new bank is another matter.”

Tether is a digital European dollar. Many people trust USDT not because of the scale and scope of the business they do (although many people are), or they believe that USDT reserves are fully supported, or they are in collusion and the global conspiracy is comfortable, but because they are At the end of the day, they must trust Tether, and this system has been running so far.

It is not accurate to call Tether a liar. This is also a clear way to let you know that you are someone who doesn’t know what you are talking about.

There are many legitimate companies that cooperate with them on a large scale. USDT is still the reserve trading currency of most exchanges and trading pairs in the world, and the liquidity of USDT is an order of magnitude higher than that of USDC or BUSD. Even Coinbase provided support when it went public this spring, they are the co-founders of USDC!

Tether has released two reserve audit reports this year, alleviating people’s concerns about the company’s partial reserve system. The company reached a settlement with New York’s Attorney General (US$18 trillion) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (US$41 trillion). Relatively speaking, this is a negligible amount. Critics condemned it as a Madoff-scale Pang. S scam. After Bitfinex was hacked in 2016, the company lied about the “lie” of mixed funds being rewarded, but in the process, no one may have saved the customer (and the entire industry). Wouldn’t it be better to tell the whole truth and destroy the underlying market? Yes, the company adjusted its funds around 2018 to cover up the $850 million stolen by a partner, but at least part of it is the responsibility of the US government. If Bank of America had accepted regulated crypto customers from the start, Tether would not have to resort to such a desperate counterparty.

I know it sounds like I’m making excuses for bad behavior, but it’s not. My point is that we all hold our breath and accept the status quo of the encryption technology cowboy-it is a bridge to mainstream applications.

CoinDesk’s Marc Hochstein used his fable “A Bridge Called Tether” to illustrate this point. Tether is the most convenient, but rickety rope bridge, which straddles the top of the mountain in the traditional financial world and the crypto financial world. It is designed to “shadow as a service”-reducing the risk of seizure exposure due to judicial arbitrage. It may also be replaced at some point, even if the final date is still unclear.

I think Taser is the Omar Little of the crypto world. Everyone knows that Omar violated the rules, but he has his own rules of life, everyone in the game respects him (even if they are afraid of him), and the regulators should now know that when they attack the king, it is best not to miss it.

(Must read: Bloom Bella cover story Taken by the great Skentic . Omar is Omar.)

*This year, USDT’s share of the stablecoin market has dropped from 80% to 50%, but the structural importance of Tether to crypto exchange settlement remains unchanged. USDT should indeed be placed in the chapter of market infrastructure, and USDC should be placed in the chapter of DeFi (using its explosion as a DeFi reserve), but I don’t want to separate Paxos and USDC. I am also tired of editing.

2.DAI VS USDT

Many people have tried to challenge DAl as a decentralized stable currency for cryptocurrency, but they have failed so far. Is there any difference this time?

After a series of upgrades and top-level integrations, Terra’s UST—the fastest-growing decentralized stablecoin in 2021—will pose the biggest challenge to DAl. On September 30, Terra conducted the highly anticipated Columbus-5 test, which produced dozens of new applications and enabled Terra to extend its cross-chain range through Cosmos’ Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol (IBC) . A new insurance agreement (Ozone) in Terra has helped its community increase $3 billion in UST (destroyed through LUNA) in just a few weeks. In addition, across the blockchain bridge, Wormhole V2 launched support for Terra, bringing Terra UST from Ethereum to Solana. The momentum of UST is accelerating because it is now positioned as an inter-chain stablecoin.

Although MakerDAO has been criticized for its unremarkable token price performance (and it is usually not that attractive compared to everything else that happened in “DeFi 2.0”), fundamentally, it has never been in a better position. Good location. Maker’s TVL market value reached 20 billion U.S. dollars, and DAl’s supply recently exceeded 8.5 billion U.S. dollars. The most impressive thing is that, unlike almost all other DeFi and stablecoin competitors, MakerDAO does not provide an incentive to use its platform. All growth is organic.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

Despite new competitors, DAl is still the most widely integrated decentralized stable currency in the industry and the preferred decentralized stable currency in the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem. This is largely due to its four-year stable record. If the most important attribute of stablecoins is survival. DAl has its own alliance. It has withstood multiple brutal cuts and proved its resilience, which cannot be easily replicated by competitors.

Dai vs UST can be attributed to the DeFi advantage of Ethereum. One of UST’s strengths is that it has not even tried to compete with DAl on its own territory. On the contrary, UST is building its own ecosystem on Terra and actively expanding multi-chain. If cryptocurrency continues to develop into a multi-chain future, the winning decentralized stablecoin may spread in the broadest blockchain ecosystem. Terra is moving in this direction, and DAl continues to serve primarily as a reserve for Ethereum, and there is a lot of room for both.

3. The revival of algorithmic stablecoins

After the mini-hype cycle in the fourth quarter of 2020, the algorithmic stable currency collapsed sharply and entered a long-term trough of disillusionment at the beginning of this year. But we are seeing a resurgence in this field today, which is driven by two new innovations: partial reserve stablecoins and “protocol control value.”

First of all, what do we mean by algorithmic stablecoins?

The following is an excerpt from an article we published earlier on the topic of research in the field

“The origin of most of the first-generation algorithmic stablecoins can be traced back to a paper entitled “Notes on the Stability of Cryptocurrencies: Seigniorage Shares” written by Robert Sams in 2014. Sams described a stablecoin model, The model involves two types of tokens: a stablecoin and a token, which occupies a share of the system’s seigniorage (profit from new issuance). When the demand for stablecoins increases, the stablecoin’s When the price rises above $1.00, the supply of stablecoins must increase. Newly issued shares will be distributed to “shareholders” before they are needed until demand is met and the price returns to the equilibrium of $1. When demand drops, the situation is the opposite. The price of stablecoins drops below $1.00 (shrinking), and stablecoins will be removed from circulation through the combustion mechanism in exchange for the issuance of new seigniorage stocks. This model effectively divides the system into two types, one is absorption Speculative assets that fluctuate and support the system, and the other is a stable asset that is used for stability.”

This sounds simple and effective in theory, but it brings two obvious limitations: downward reflection may cause “bank runs” on these agreements, and lack of guarantee support means that banks can legally lower interest rates. Is zero”

Reflexivity pushes early experiments (ESD, Frax) to very high altitudes, and then annihilates them as they descend. The seigniorage share in these systems is only valuable if buyers believe in the continued viability of the system and the positive net present value of the future money supply. When mass redemptions occur quickly, confidence will be overwhelmed, and the reinvestment of stock tokens will also cool down, triggering a death spiral.

Without any collateral support to offset the upward spiral, algorithmic stablecoins rely on external “lenders of last resort” to bail out during periods of severe tightening. Users (package holders) need to step in to rescue the system, otherwise the stocks and stablecoins will be forgotten.

Then there is a self-directed challenge.

You need to reach a sufficient level of market capitalization and guide sufficient liquidity to ensure that fluctuations in demand will not cause significant fluctuations in stablecoins. However, in the absence of real early demand for a given stablecoin, you need to create this demand by incentivizing speculators. This kind of speculation promotes reflexivity, but the stronger the reflexivity of stablecoins, the more unstable and useless it is, and the greater the perceived risk of future liquidity crises in the agreement.

The partial reserve model and the “protocol control value” have changed the calculation of the algorithmic stablecoin.

The idea of ​​partial reserve stablecoins (initiated by Frax Protocol) is that there is a sweet spot between over-guaranteed and purely algorithmic stablecoins, allowing scalable, capital efficient, and decentralized stable value assets. Part of the reserves suppressed reflexivity during the contraction period, and provided stablecoin holders with 1:1 convertibility between stablecoins and underlying collateral. Compared with purely algorithmic models, they are usually provided in peq Greater confidence. In the year since Frax was launched, its issuance has reached $1 billion, and it has maintained a tight balance throughout the year, including the May crash.

The Protocol Control Value (PCV) was pioneered by Fei Protocol, and its function is similar to a huge MakerDAO library. The difference with Fei is that it is an agreement that owns the assets deposited by the user into the system, rather than an individual who owns the treasury collateral. FEl is not a mortgage, it is actually a sale of mortgage assets in exchange for stablecoins. The system has two assets-Tribe (a governance token that can provide support in a “bank run”, similar to MKR) and FEl (stable currency). Fei can allocate the capital on the balance sheet to the entire DeFi loan and equity pool, or purchase other reserves. This flexibility creates an organic demand for its stablecoins and reduces reflexivity (so far).

It is unclear whether these improvements are enough to challenge DAl’s decentralized stablecoin hegemony, but the iteration of Fei and Frax seems to be a step in the right direction.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

4. The emergence of non-linked fiat currency stablecoins (defi2.0 representatives)

When Bitcoin was born, it inspired the imagination of early adopters, who began to seriously consider the potential of non-sovereign digital currencies. Bitcoin’s promise as a currency is long-term-it may remain volatile for a long time, but its believers believe that once it establishes its own number of users and liquidity, it will eventually stabilize. To this day, Bitcoin’s volatility is still unbelievable-although its market value is as high as 750 billion US dollars, in one day in May of this year, Bitcoin plummeted by more than 30%. Given the lack of elasticity of Bitcoin’s supply, it is not yet clear whether it can achieve stability.

The builders of the crypto economy will not wait for Bitcoin to stabilize. To bridge this gap, we have witnessed the growth of stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar, which solves the volatility loopholes of cryptocurrencies and promotes the adoption of blockchain applications other than HODLing. But the early iterations brought a new problem-stablecoins dollarized our blockchain and put the entire crypto economy at systemic risk in the process. A currency that is ultimately linked to and controlled by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department limits our ability to establish a truly sovereign monetary system.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

This has led to the launch of a wave of new projects this year aimed at creating free-floating stablecoins that are not tied to legal tender. Non-pegged stablecoins provide an opportunity for the crypto economy to achieve stability while eliminating dependence on the U.S. dollar.

The controversial but undisputed leader of this movement is Olympus Dak. Launched in March 2021. Olympus encourages users to permanently “bind” tokens (Dai, ETH, LP, etc.) to its agreement in exchange for a new token called OHM. The agreement attracts liquidity by offering OHM at a discount to the value of the collateral received, although newly issued ohms can only be redeemed at par value after a grant period. So far, the influence of game theory has been very strong-in the eight months since it was officially launched, Olympus has accumulated US$700 million in Treasury assets, and its market value has soared to US$3.5 billion

Olympus DAO is now a giant involved in multiple DeFi fields, because its users believe that the agreement can implement effective monetary policy on a large scale, so it has received a significant premium. If the Olympus DAO accumulates tens of billions of dollars in the treasury, it may have the resources to stabilize $100 billion in non-pegged currency stablecoins, just like central banks around the world stabilize their currencies.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

(Source: Daniel Cheung)

If all this sounds strange to you, it is normal. There are many things about non-pegged stablecoins that make you hard to understand and questionable. The agreement has some game-theoretic properties similar to Ponzi schemes, which have promoted people’s interest and participation. It is not clear how these properties will be maintained in the broader cryptocurrency sell-off. However, from the perspective of the number of forks derived, OlympusDAO may be the most important new project this year, and a stablecoin that is not pegged to the U.S. dollar may be the industry’s best bet on decoupling from the U.S. dollar.

(Recommended reading:  Central Bank Art on the Blockchain: Unlinked Stable Coins, Mount Olympus: Facts and Fiction ,  Olympus Pro: Liquidity as a Service in the Agreement ) 

5. Worldcoin’s firm eyes

Worldcoin was launched this fall with some impressive supporters and a bold goal: by binding the retina scans of 1 billion people with a unique verified identity, a fair-issued digital currency will be exchanged. Into their hands. They use zero-knowledge encryption technology to ensure the security of the identity on the chain, as well as the “Orb operator” incentive network, allowing new users to log in for $10 each time in return for viewing the metal scanner. The early results sound impressive.

I know this sounds terrible.

Yes, it involves a metal iris scanning sphere made by OpenAl staff.

Yes, our goal is to airdrop a new world currency, with rich seed supporters owning 20% ​​of the shares.

Yes, this online model relies on door-to-door technical Mormons, and if they are willing to store their biometric information on these new devices, they can get a return of $10.

Yes, the name of the manufacturer has not been revealed, which may have a terrible ending.

Yes, the side of this sphere does look like the Death Star, but it has a new wax, and the digital currency that is qualified for eye scanning is also the currency of the Galactic Empire (I think).

But what if it succeeds?

As Balaii pointed out, “FacelD scans hundreds of millions of faces every day. Can we explain the difference between it and Worldcoin or any similar opt-in technology for proving human existence? If you are running a service with multiple trusted Users, you will immediately find that you need a proof of a certain type of person. It is not necessarily the country’s outdated and bureaucratic KYC enforcement, but “something”. Otherwise, you will encounter robots, scammers, trolls, fakes and many more.”

In the minds of him and his supporters, you want to be able to distinguish good users from bad users in order to protect the identity and privacy of community members, and at the same time provide impetus for the new pseudonymous economy. This means that “the progressives discovered that you can build a stateless currency. The libertarians discovered, and then you have to rebuild something similar to the organization: identity, exclusion, anti-fraud, escrow, trust, community…”

I haven’t made a decision yet, because if this early experiment is successful, there will be second-order and third-order effects that we cannot predict (good and bad)

6.Uniswap v3 VS World

Now we will have a deeper understanding of DeFi, so this section will assume that you have basic working knowledge. If you don’t have one, I encourage you to read the DeFi chapters I wrote in my paper last year, learning about amm, farmland farms, vaults, temporary loans, oracles, impermanent losses, and so on. This report is long enough, so I assume you have some prior knowledge. For this particular part, here is a good review on decentralized exchanges and how they work.

However, we will only discuss one specific DEX today, because some people believe that Uniswap v3 may eventually include all other Ethereum DEXs. They certainly had a leading start, even if they were squashed, thanks in part to the expansion chain of Ethereum. But the recent focus has mainly been on providing infrastructure and tools to promote more liquid markets and more competitive market making. This is a wise development, because the DeFi world has become wallet-centric rather than destination-centric. (Uniswap has more than 3 million users, and Metamask has more than 10 million users)

The biggest difference in v3 is that the liquidity provider is active. Instead of depositing assets in a pool that passively provides liquidity along the deterministic price curve, liquidity providers have to actively adjust their trading liquidity ranges, and then Uniswap AMM will aggregate them. Known as “concentrated liquidity.” By better focusing liquidity near current market prices, these narrower ranges can help improve capital efficiency. They also reward professionals and punish retail limited partners.

V3 allows market makers to limit price orders and introduces customizable transaction fees (30 basis points, 10 basis points, 5 basis points, 1 basis point) to incentivize liquidity providers to build on previously insufficiently liquid pairs New market. These upgrades should be combined to attract more professional market makers who actively monitor short-term liquidity positions (inert liquidity provisions will no longer be profitable), and help Uniswap better integrate with other centralized and decentralized transactions In competition, Uniswap failed to keep up with the pace of these exchanges (such as similar pairs on Curve) due to the expected low difference.

Concentrated liquidity is clearly the future of amm, and the early success of V3 illustrates this point. Since its launch, Uniswap has increased its DEX market share to more than 70%.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

Whether the non-amm DEX’s special order book mode will ultimately prevail is up to you to decide. It is one of the departments that we have covered most thoroughly in Messari Pro, because the successful loot is very high.

 (Recommended reading:  101 ,  Uniswap ,  Sushi ,  CAKE ,  Bancor ,  Loopring ,  0x ,  Serum ,  Curve ,  1inch )

7.Perp VS. dydx

You may have seen a crazy headline from Bloomberg last month: The new DeFi perpetual contract platform dydx briefly surpassed Coinbase in transaction volume. Yes, early token incentives and transaction rewards are helpful, but this also comes from a newer network that even excludes US customers from using the protocol. The trading volume of perpetual contracts on centralized exchanges dominates the volume of spot trading, and I expect DeFi to be no exception. This makes Perp and dydx attractive.

For decentralized derivatives exchanges, the biggest unlock this year is the launch of L2s. Historically, these exchanges are not feasible at the bottom of Ethereum because they will slow down the transaction settlement time and have high cost requirements for the development of perp (frequent oracle updates, clearing, etc.). Perpetual Protocol was developed on the Ethereum sidechain xDai and released the v2 version on Arbitrum. DYDX released its own specific application zk-rollup earlier this year. In both cases, increased transaction throughput, lower latency, and lower costs make these types of projects finally work.

Derivatives other than perpetual contracts are another matter. They are complex, non-linear, difficult to price, and generally have lower profits when demand is lower. There are some experiments worth paying attention to, such as Antimatter’s “Perpetual Option” and TracerDAO’s Bull and Bear Tokens, which try to neutralize “volatility decay” (Arthur Hayes can explain it better than me). But the real action will continue in the perpetual contract, and the real battle lies in the perpetual contract dispute between dex and cex.

(Recommended reading:  Defi Q2 ,  101 ,  Perp ,  Mango )

8.The Alchemix of DeFinance (2.0)

The simplest path analysis I have seen from DeFi 1.0 to 2.0 comes from Molly, but judging from where we are in the cryptographic cycle, this is not too bad:

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

If you talk to people in the DeFi circle, you will hear that the most popular token family is the DeFi 2.0 team and anything with “protocol control value”. Scupy tried and Sam tried to explain this problem better than me, but I will try to explain it briefly here.

First, on some background. The DeFi boom started with Compound’s income farming plan 18 months ago. Then (and still so), one of the preferred incentive schemes in DeFi projects is to provide liquidity providers (“LP”) with native token incentives for the underlying DeFi protocol. This injected vitality into the early liquidity of these systems, and everyone from Uniswap’s AMMs, lenders and borrowers, and year’s vault holders, all flocked to risk-adjusted returns. The highest agreement, which includes agreement benefits and liquidity mining rewards denominated in tokens. In the start-up phase of DeFi, these capital providers are crucial.

But over time, their value has diminished because they are fickle:

The capital they provide is hot money, and they move from one project to another. LPs are more like locusts than humble farmers, because they create permanent spending and relentless sales pressure for the agreement treasury.

Some projects have seen this and realized that revenue farming 1.0 is not sustainable. Instead of creating a local treasury token revenue farm, they began to create a “liquidity-as-a-service” plan to “rent liquidity” from other agreements.

We have already talked about how Olympus and Fei use this model. Olympus DAO created the “bond”, which sold native OHM tokens at a discount in exchange for Olympus LP shares. The cooperation between Fei and Ondo has opened the door to the project, allowing their local fiscal tokens to play a role in Fei as collateral assets. Fei will use its stable currency, FEI, to match the contributed collateral in exchange for liquidity for a fixed period of time. Tokemak created a decentralized market maker, directly connected with the DAO Treasury, DAO Treasury lends the native tokens to DEX in exchange for TOKE. In all these cases, liquidity is now provided at the DAO level, not at the liquidity provider side.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

The liquidity of protocol control is a subset of the value of protocol control. If protocol controlled liquidity is about DAOs using their token vaults to provide liquidity, then the value of protocol control is about DAO monetizing their balance sheets more broadly.

As mentioned earlier, Olympus DAO now has a vault of non-native assets worth more than $700 million. And put these assets into DEXs, loan agreements, income aggregators, and even venture capital. This increases the DAO’s rate of return (its treasury assets generate revenue) and reduces its cost of capital (the DAO does not pay for external resources for its liquidity). Higher income, lower cost, this is the biggest innovation of DeFi 2.0.

In addition to the new model of liquidity supply and balance sheet monetization, this year also brought the emergence of “automata”, “enhancers” and “expanders”. The automation protocol rebalances the liquidity position between AMM and the first tier, recovers rewards, and provides “automatic compound interest” services. Convex Finance is one of the leading examples-they “recycle” $CRV and Curve LP tokens to increase rewards, transaction fees, and governance tokens.

Enhancer is an agreement that does not introduce a new operating model for DeFi, but reclaims the output of existing agreements to optimize the return of DeFi. Recycle the output of existing agreements to optimize the return to end users. A good example of this is Abracadabra.money. It is similar to MakerDAO, but the important difference is that it creates CDPs from profitable assets and has looser risk control.

The extender is a protocol that stacks various underlying DeFi protocols. Alchemix is ​​a good example. Its vault function is similar to MakerDAO’s vault, but the agreement also remortgages its mortgage assets to a yield aggregator like Year, creating synthetic tokens that generate yields that look like “self-repayable loans.” Remortgage creates risks because the agreement absorbs the risks of the lower-level agreements it establishes.

Critics will point out subprime mortgages and other derivatives, and point out that “DeFi 2.0” will have a significant problem of “garbage in” and “garbage out”, as well as the associated risk of failure. Others will greedily invest in magical Internet cash (5 billion US dollars in liquidity in six months). I haven’t thought about all this, and whether this is lunar mathematics or a new sustainable financial model.

 (Further reading:  Defi 2.0 ,  Rari ,  Alchemix , and  Tokemak )

9. Fat application theory

Cryptocurrency is moving towards modularity at an accelerated rate. Ethereum plans to rely on second-tier execution platforms such as Optimism, Arbitrum, StarkWare and ZKSync. Ethereum’s competitors such as Solana and Avalanche have developed powerful parallel DeFi layers and user bases. Cosmos has unlocked cross-chain communication, bringing its multi-chain IBC universe to life, and Polkadot’s parachain auction has finally begun.

In other words, the transition to a multi-chain future has arrived, and it creates a huge opportunity for existing DeFi brands to expand into new ecosystems. For those who want to capture most of the cryptocurrency’s growth dividend, the Ethereum strategy alone may not be feasible.

When most basic transactions are not cost-effective on the first level. When users are on the second or competitive tier 1, the market for liquid and credible financial services will reward multi-chain applications.

Most DeFi blue chips already understand this. Although they are generally divided into four types.

  • Take Ethereum as the center. The agreement only deploys a copy of its contract on the second layer of Ethereum, such as Arbitrum or Optimism (for example: Uniswap).
  • Extensive layout and prayer. The agreement deploys a copy of its contract to any EVM-compatible chain or first-level side chain (for example, Sushi will be launched anywhere…except Tron).
  • Targeted EVM compatible chain. The agreement deploys a copy of its contract to an EVM-compatible chain or once these networks show some preliminary prospects, the agreement will deploy a copy of their contract to an EVM-compatible chain or side chain; usually accompanied by a native flow Sexual mining program (Compared with Uniswap, Curve and Aave have always been open, but more strategic than Sushi)
  • DeFi hub (independent chain). The protocol introduces a new, independent chain, possibly with multiple networks (compound chain is the main example).

There is no perfect solution, and each method has obvious trade-offs.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

Source: * *Kris Kay

The Ethereum-centric approach is consistent with the vision and values ​​of Ethereum believers. Ethereum is the largest and richest user group in cryptocurrencies. In theory, brand recognition should enable these applications to dominate their respective In the market area, no matter where they are deployed, this seems to have become the case of Uniswap V3, because its daily trading volume has surpassed other DEX based on Optimism and Arbitrum. But only Ethereum’s strategy prevents Uniswap from capturing breakthrough assets traded on other networks.

The wide-spreading method usually rewards one of the first applications on those new networks (increasing their chances of occupying the market in the ecosystem), and if implemented well, it can increase the total number and cost revenue. It needs more work in exchange for potentially negligible returns, split liquidity, and introduce more technical debt. A typical example of the wide cast net is sushi, which has been launched on 14 (14!) different chains. Despite such efforts, 95% of its total liquidity is on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Polygon. Sushi does not have the largest transaction volume on most chains, which suggests that this model may not be optimal.

Once the new chain shows sufficient user growth, it is a reasonable strategy to target them. It can ensure that the new chain has some organic demand, and projects can usually get rewards in exchange for their migration. Curve and Aave applied this strategy to perfection, because they used external incentives (and their prominent brands) to become some of the largest applications on each new base chain they added. This strategy is not foolproof. It is feasible for DeFi blue chip stocks, but may not be suitable for new applications. And it may be too passive to effectively capture the early growth of small networks (Moonriver).

The last method is the most interesting-start an independent, application-specific chain, which becomes the center of cross-chain integration and liquidity of a protocol. The nature of the sovereign chain is chain-neutral, which may improve the defensibility of the project (difficult to fork), the economics of the token (the proof-of-stake verification means that the token has cost capture and security attributes), and its potential to become an activity center . Compound Chain based on substate is an example of DeFi blue chip stocks, which goes beyond the framework of EVM. The upfront cost of the technical and economic resources required to develop a new chain is high, but this may be the most profitable way.

Chris Burniske wrote three years ago:

“The interoperability of state and value may bring price pressure on the first-tier blockchain without currency premiums, while enabling powerful middleware protocols to achieve cross-chain and winner-take-all dominance in their respective services.”

This argument is not yet mature, the infrastructure for seamless multi-chain use is not yet mature, and the basic layer continues to grow. But since we are now in the 16th month of the DeFi bear market, it is worth betting on the recovery of fat application theory. I still think Chris Burniske will be proven right in the end

10. Tokenized funds and index cooperative organizations

One thing I learned while reading Hester Pierce’s four-year speech on a recent evening is that the history of the ETF itself is less than 30 years old. I did not expect that since 2000, ETFs have basically accounted for all of the growth and innovation in the fund sector. The number of mutual funds has been declining, while ETFs have risen to 20% of the global open-end fund asset management scale (the rest are mutual funds).

Although the ETF has a successful record (total net assets of 6 trillion US dollars, lower management fees and higher net return for investors), every new ETF application must use the “exemption application procedure”, which requires the Securities Regulatory Commission There will be a license for each new product. The Pierce committee has promoted the codification of ETF exemption standards into the law so that they can bring new ETF products to the market more quickly. She believes this will promote competition, give investors more freedom, and allow more creativity to flourish in the ETF field.

Since the birth of the Internet, there has been no innovation in the $30 trillion fund market, which is quite shocking. Especially for the “financial capital of the world”. This is also one of the reasons why I am optimistic about projects such as Index Co-Op, which makes it easy to use smart contracts to create a custom token index. The index methodologist is rewarded for carefully designing and marketing new products and is motivated to use these products in defi. Early examples are how DeFiPulse monetized its index DPI and how Bankless helped create BED and GMI generations. currency. All of these are established through basic market value weights.

This seems to be just the tip of the iceberg.

To illustrate how much customization we can see in the field of cryptocurrency indexes, consider credit rating agencies and WokESG ratings. Moody’s and Fitch may have helped cause the Great Recession, and their negligent actions on subprime mortgages may have helped cause the Great Recession, but at least they followed similar rules. ESG suppliers are everywhere. There is no common method or standard to measure sustainability, and each supplier provides a subjective perspective on “responsible” investment (perhaps based on political laws at the time).

What are the disadvantages of constructing a more creative and subjective index in DeFi?

There are opportunities for smart beta products, specific industry applications, and portfolio copy trading. The biggest opportunity in the near term may be synthetic assets, like Synthetix, Mirror, UMA, etc. we have already seen. Considering that the “total value” guaranteed by Chainlink oracles (smart contracts that use its data) is now $75 billion, a 10-fold increase from the same period last year, you have a foundation for doing great things. Reliable oracle data, synthetic stocks, and Co-Op smart contracts, what we need is CNBC to promote. We are full-stack, maybe illegal, but promising.

 (Must read:  Enhancing the Token Index ,  Index Coop & The Next Generation of Funds )

11. The two sides of DEFI

“Defi has a dirty secret. Although the smart contract itself is completely decentralized. The developer team can still exercise substantial control over users through their control of the front-end. We are happy to announce Homescreen, which is Skynet’s A new application that allows users to completely decentralize their web3 front end.”-David Vorick, Skynet

We know from this summer that those in power are generally not fans of DeFi. My guess (as you know in Chapter 4), things will get worse before they get better, and we will see DeFi split into CeDeFi (a known team) and AnonFi (an anonymous developer). More often, this split will be a front-end tool rather than an obstacle at the protocol level.

We have seen Uniswap Lab remove certain tokens from its front end, which is obviously a succumbing to external legal pressure. Then 1inch (who criticized other projects in the past for not adhering to DeFi’s ethics) geo-isolated the use of its front-end by American users, and pointed out that they will soon launch 1inch Pro products, “designed specifically for the US market and global institutional investors, in line with All regulatory requirements”.

When the front end of a popular DeFi product is bound to a centralized DNS or ENS name controlled by the core team, there will be censorship risks and security issues (some front-end products can insert malicious code, such as stealing user funds). In either case, DeFi will lose credibility in front of regulators. They will say: “Well, obviously you do have the ability to comply with our rules, so you must be a securities issuer” or “This is full of fraud. Not good for investors”.

This is what prompted Sia’s Skynet team to announce a new project called “Homescreen”, which aims to ensure an unstoppable front end in Web3.

I think Homescreen (or similar standards) will be crucial in the United States, because American DeFi developers are closely watched. In three years, half of DeFi development may be anonymous, cutting-edge, open research, and the other half may be the integration point of CeDeFi. Both are good!

In my opinion, AnonFi and a truly unlicensed front end are the limits that we should fight desperately and test code and laws. No one wants to defend a developer and maintainer who provides illegal services to darknet customers. We really want to defend the young hackers who explore the magical Internet currency and create new primitives for global finance. They are heroes.

12. CeDeFi boom

One of the most exciting events this year occurred when French banking giant Societe Generale submitted a public proposal through MakerDAO’s governance forum to require their new bond token to be approved as collateral for the $20 million Dai. This is the bull argument that many of us put forward in our bull market case. This is the argument that many of us put forward in our bull market case about the ubiquitous public blockchain, that institutions will be like they used to be in the peer-to-peer loan market. In order to do so safely, enter this field legally and with sufficient liquidity. This did not make this flowchart less maddening.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

SocGen is not the only one. EY is preparing to launch a licensed Polygon chain. R3 is preparing to issue a DeFi token on Ethereum. Visa plans to build a “layer 2” stablecoin network, connecting the public blockchain and the future central bank digital currency, which seems more ambitious than anything else. This is something we should be excited about because it normalizes stablecoins and at the same time makes central bankers excited.

As Stani said, “The organization is still practicing before entering DeFi.”

I bet that in the next few years, most DeFi users will be KYC. This seems to be positive (it can also be said to be the only sustainable medium-term path), and it can develop some products, such as partial reserve banks and off-chain credit scores (if we want these things, to be determined). This still leaves a question as to whether the entry of institutions into DeFi will make the protocol management firmly develop in a “regulated” direction, so that the project begins to proceed in a “fork”. As a result, the project began to fork in the core-level compliance code and became a garden with walls. Don’t tell me that this is slander, and don’t tell me that the proof-of-stake system is resistant to the coercion of most rules.

I am not saying that I like this potential future, but that it seems to be a risk that cannot be ignored.

13. Govern vulnerabilities

Compound has greatly promoted the entire DeFi boom and bull market in the past 18 months, so I think we can not hold accountable for the huge prank they accidentally sent $160 million worth of tokens.

This fall, in a routine protocol upgrade, they accidentally sent users $160 million worth of tokens, and then scrambled to pass a series of compensation governance proposals. They got some back due to the trust of the community.

They are not the only ones with problems. Uniswap came under fire for its $20 million unconditional grant (no minimum holding period), which led to the rapid sale of 50% of UNI. The community does not want a large number of token sales, even if you spend your money on really important policy work. Flipside, a cryptocurrency analysis company, saw this and said, “Hey, we won’t sell to you, just give us $25 million in collateral for “community-driven analysis.” We will conduct HODL, pledge, and Make money from floating funds.” Quite clever, but unfortunately, this also caused controversy (from an angry competitor), and the proposal failed. (a16z has a good “no” vote).

We will discuss governance issues more in Chapter 9 on the DAO.

Now I just want to say that I am super optimistic about the governance infrastructure, the improvement of the protocol library deployment, and the ongoing DAO, the deployment of the protocol library, and the ongoing DAO distribution model to users, individual contributors, commercial companies and DAOs. Make a payment. This is a fundamental tool that will cause DAO to replace most companies.

(Required Reading:  a16z Open Sourcing Delegation ,  UCal’s Guide to Defi Governance )

14. Security and the dark forest

DeFi governance today looks more like Veep than a house of cards. There is nothing evil (so far), it’s just that serious contributors are studying how to make decentralized operations less terrible. We have not discovered many governance loopholes, but there are still a large number of contract loopholes, MEV pre-operation, lightning loan manipulation, and runaway behaviors, which keep security researchers busy at night.

Users’ funds are often at risk, even in “secure” browser wallets. The exchange was hacked. The secret key is lost in the accident, the SIM card is copied, and the protocol is used. The risk is aggravated because the system itself is very complicated.

Come ON!

You are not investing in cryptocurrencies without risk. If you buy DEX-listed tokens through Metamask, your complexity has exceeded the average level. And you recognize that technical risk is part of the cost of risk you need to take to participate in it. It’s terrible to be used. I hope it will not happen to me (or anyone), and we need to reduce the impact of the huge vulnerability as much as possible. However, vulnerabilities do have a role and help strengthen the security immune system of the wider ecosystem. This is important because we are still in marginal areas with more risk-conscious end users.

Now is the best time to be a security researcher or insurance salesman.

Our “lock-in total value” in the smart contracts of various agreements has reached more than US$250 billion. This is a big problem. Ethereum’s security researchers are already busy enough, and now high fees are pushing more risky assets onto new chains, and the user security stacks of these chains are not complicated. Ethereum has dropped from 98% of TVL to 67% today.

There are three things to pay attention to this year.

  1. Smart contract insurance, such as Nexus, became the first cryptocurrency insurance unicorn, but I am definitely not the last.
  2. Proven secure smart contract library and security as a service. For example, Forta provides an “enterprise-level runtime security platform that detects system-wide threats through a network of nodes, and encourages node operators to pay attention to violations.” It is a central nervous system of DeFi. Poke your little toe or just feel a cold wind, Forta’s network can quickly send this information to the correct brain, which may become a circuit breaker.
  3. Permanently bullish for smart contract security researchers. Spoiler, I have invested in the first two, and I am also happy to invest in Samczsun’s ISA token, if he makes one one day.

Seriously, this is the most epic story of the year, and no one in MSM found it. Samczsun discovered a $350 million vulnerability in SushiSwap. The vulnerability is believed to have misappropriated the original code of Uniswap Labs, a company invested by Paradigm, and may have saved the project and its users. He is the Mr. White Hat we need, not the one we deserve.

(I think the bZx team holds a grudge against me, because I said in my paper last year that this project is a “bug bounty as a service”. It’s not very nice! But very smart! In addition, they were hacked again.)

15. Unlock and fully diluted value

“Completely diluted value” is a rather poor measure of how well-functioning DAOs compare to centralized foundations. When I say this, I helped popularize this indicator on behalf of a company and used relevant research in multiple Some pretty ugly things were found in the project, and generally speaking, I would not buy the tokens of projects that still have a large number of tokens locked, because my IQ is normal. The better way to think about token unlocking is that the better way is more nuanced, a bit like how you would expect the board to consider new stock issuances, except that the board here is a large, distributed community.

Coinbase has 10,000,000,000 authorized Class A common shares, but only 155,243,470 shares outstanding. This did not bring their fully diluted valuation to $5 trillion. The same is true for many agreements.

Messari 2022 in-depth research report on the encryption industry (7): DeFi 2.0

What is important is the right to dominate and control the tokens. You want to know how much of a given token supply is controlled by whales. For foundations, founders, venture capital companies, etc., it is important to understand their lock-up situation, position size, and their intentions. But seeing a concentrated bargaining chip in a particular network is not absolutely negative.

Although Joe Lubin had a lot of chips in the early days, Ethereum did a good job. You might like SOL because you know that SBF has 30% of the supply. (This is not true, I am just complaining here).

People are beginning to accept the term “bullish unlocking” and use the treasury as an accelerator and inhibitor of network demand. People trust venture capital companies more and believe that they are professional secondary sellers during the rise, rather than panic retail sellers during the fall, so FDV may be better than those with large long-term supporters in well-distributed tokens. Tokens are more important.

Chapter 8 ETH, L1&L2, Cross-chain Bridge

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

1. ETH third quarter report

I personally like Bankless’s third quarter update report for Ethereum. It’s really cool. We can generate earnings reports for any crypto community and update them in real time at any time, without the need for any central corporate investor relations team. . What we are talking about here is a 1,000-fold improvement in the symmetry of investor information.

It is also interesting to write about the financial performance of Ethereum. EIP-1559 was launched in the London hard fork in early August. This proposal reorganized the fee market of the Ethereum network and burned part of the gas cost. Half a quarter after this update Here, the value of burned ETH exceeds $1.3 billion. For more traditional investors, Ethereum has become more like a high-growth technology stock. How do you value a company with this growth characteristic? ?

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

(Source: Bankless)

This is of course two-way.

Even in the context of the launch of the new Layer 2 network (Optimistic Ethereum launched its Alpha version in July and Arbitrum One’s mainnet launched in August), this summer’s NFT mania pushed the Ethereum network to its limit.

At the time of writing, Optimism (Uniswap and Synthetix) has locked in $330 million, Arbitrum (UNI, SUSHI , Reddit) has locked in $2.7 billion, and Polygon (Aave, Polymarket, Decentraland) has locked in $5.1 billion. DeFi Llama helps us track the value of all these locks in real time.

As Bankless concluded: The value locked in Defi is already more than the market value of most banks, EIP-1559 has burned billions of dollars, and the interoperable Layer 2 has been adopted and merged into the Ethereum PoS block. The chain is in its final stages, and this may further reward ETH holders and attract new institutional investors.

In general, the progress of ETH this year is not bad, we have not encountered obvious headwinds, but if Ethereum 2.0 is delayed or stagnated in rollup adoption, this situation will continue to push the market to competitors.

2. 1559: Miners and MEV

EIP-1559 stabilizes the Ethereum transaction fee market by implementing a 12.5% ​​”basic fee transfer” for each block, reducing transaction fee fluctuations, and redirecting certain miners to extract value attack vectors.

During the period from London’s hard fork to the migration of large-scale DEX trading volume to L2, the percentage of MEV in network usage dropped by more than 80% compared to the beginning of the year.

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

(Source: Flashbots)

EIP1559 burned the money in the miners’ pockets (block rewards are still there), and also caused some concerns about mergers. We have never seen such a large-scale transformation from PoW to PoS networks, and mining bans are adopted in China Since then, two large Chinese mining pools have been closed, and the remaining Western miners (many of whom are related to early Ethereum investors) seem to be more likely to switch to staking mode cleanly, rather than fighting at the last minute.

3. Merger and liquid staking (Liquid Staking)

The merger of Ethereum (migrating to PoS) will completely change the situation of the staking market. JPMorgan Chase even predicts that by 2025, staking will become an industry with an annual output value of 40 billion U.S. dollars. Although the migration has brought many benefits, staking will also Bringing opportunity cost issues, locking assets to participate in network verification (especially during the one-year initial pledge period) will prevent these assets from being used in other parts of the ecosystem.

But soon, the developers created a synthetic token with liquidity for the pledged assets, thus solving this trouble. At present, the assets of liquid pledge are only 10 billion U.S. dollars. If we are to reach the annual pledge income threshold of 40 billion U.S. dollars estimated by JPMorgan Chase by 2025, then this number must increase by more than 50 times. It is too early to select the winner of these projects, but I am following all related projects, and I am also an investor in Lido and Anchor.

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

Being able to obtain pledge rewards while maintaining liquid collateral opens up many possibilities (earning income through revenue tokens!). Although I am bullish in the long-term, I am still a little worried about the short-term liquidation risk. 1) The bull market will not last forever. The delay of mergers and the shift of market sentiment to “risk-off” or the transfer of ETH to other L1 public chains may create bank runs in other DeFi protocols that rely on Lido’s stETH as collateral Scenario; 2) Since this period of time, the cross-chain bridge has been hacked several times, and the cross-chain availability of some tokens has opened up many complex technical risks; 3) The early validator shutdown in the merged environment may cause The frequent occurrence of fines and forfeitures will also affect the value of pledged tokens.

I’m not smart enough to prevent these risks, but as magical as DeFi, I still know the system leverage, collateral layer, cross-chain availability, and migrating a $500 billion network (in an unprecedented way) to a brand new block The risks posed by the chain.

(Recommended reading: Should I Stake or Leave )

4. EVM or non-EVM?

I believe that we will live in a multi-chain world, and Ethereum’s EVM will almost certainly become one of the important standards in the coming decades. In the next few sections, I will introduce other early leaders in the competition for the share of Layer 1 (or “Layer 0”). There will be sections dedicated to Solana, Cosmos IBC, Polkadot, and Terra.

This thought-sharing battle will have a time window (many standards!). We may have hundreds or thousands of Rollup, parachain (polkadot) or zone (Cosmos) applications in specific scenarios, but we won’t have counts. Hundreds of L0/L1/L2 standards. As Ramshreyas wrote in a recent professional article, the main technology platforms tend to be duopoly.

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

Maybe it will be different this time, but I find that even developers (especially those working in small teams) are unlikely to choose to integrate with multiple virtual machines outside the top 2–3 in the short term, unless Those protocols have excellent technical capabilities that are more suitable for their applications (for example, Serum’s decentralized exchange can only run on Solana, because its central limit order book is completely infeasible on Ethereum). Even so, many upstarts will still face a choice in the medium term, either to follow a safe route and build on Ethereum’s EVM, or choose to build new land on other technology stacks, which may not survive the bear market.

Recommended reading: choose EVM or non-EVM (requires messari pro paid membership)

5. Relative valuation of Layer 1

Broadly speaking, Ethereum’s competitors are trying to solve the blockchain impossible triangle from different perspectives, that is, the blockchain can only prioritize the three priorities of scalability, decentralization, and security. Of two. Vitalik and other Ethereum core development members have united around the future with rollup as the core. This route prioritizes security and decentralization, while scalability is left to rollup’s L2. This model is similar to Polkadot and The preferred path for Cosmos. On the other hand, Solana chose a faster route, sacrificing a certain degree of decentralization in pursuit of speed.

When it comes to the relative value of these projects, we will think about their overall market value, developer ecology, guarded value, interoperability and incentives provided, value capture mechanism, and how blue-chip Dapps will choose.

At the beginning of the year, I thought ETH’s lead was impeccable, but now I am not sure, even if it has gone through a year with a tailwind.

In this year, decentralization (especially political decentralization) and structural soundness are only secondary attributes at best, and deliberately ignored at worst. Not every new chain will leave decentralization aside. But it is true that many agreements have been abandoned.

Even if Ethereum holds its largest non-EVM competitor, it will direct part of its value to its Rollup chain, which relies on scalability. At present, ETH’s market value in the Layer 1 track has reached 60%, and this will be reduced to below 50% in 2022, or its Layer 2 Rollup tokens will eat up part of the growth space, or both .

This can be traced back to my previous views on cryptocurrency vs. cryptographic computing platform. Watkins also pointed out: The crypto economy with multiple winners will be similar to the world we live in today, with 5 technology companies with a market value of more than $1 trillion. (Full article)

(Further reading: Layer 1 report  written by The Block commissioned by Algorand )

6. Solana Summer never ends

In 2021 (or in the history of encryption), no project can be more hot and exciting than Solana. A rise of more than 100 times aroused strong interest in VCs. The explosive growth of the infrastructure stack (syndica!), application ecology, and the outrageously fast blockchain made it the dominant player in Ethereum Layer 1. The first powerful challenger.

Solana did not try to surpass Ethereum in terms of EVM and modularity, but tried to put all aspects into its main chain. This is what Solana is good at and Ethereum has not even tried.

The team is advancing the project at an extremely fast pace, which was evident at this month’s Breakpoint conference: together with the Reddit co-founders, invest $100 million in decentralized social media, and FTX invest $100 million in blockchain For games, Brave migrated to Solana as the browser’s default blockchain. Phantom as Solana’s browser wallet has recently reached 1 million users. Solana has a potential dominant platform advantage in encrypted games and NFT.

But it should be noted that Solana is not a panacea. The network was down for 17 hours (if you interview Solana founder Anatoly, he will tell you this is a “17-hour block”), which may lead to its fledgling Systematic problems have appeared in the DeFi application of. But to be fair, this is no different from the technical challenges of Bitcoin and Ethereum’s early fabrics. We often forget that this network with a market value of more than $65 billion was launched less than two years ago. The pain of growth is inevitable. It is normal for the network to find catastrophic errors in the early stages of its life cycle.

We will continue to observe whether this momentum is long-term, but Multicoin’s short-term arguments are as follows:

“The only blockchain protocol that can scale to tens of millions of users in the next 24 months is Solana… I am not saying that sharding and rollup are not feasible, I am actually quite optimistic that these two solutions Both will succeed. However, these two expansion strategies do not work today, and will produce many secondary and tertiary problems that must be resolved. In the next 24 months, it is difficult to see a requirement for scalability determinism Fair organizations will get the certainty they need, because scaling Ethereum has many intertwined components.”

7. Polkadot advances slowly and steadily

As I discussed with Polkadot founder Gavin Wood at this year’s Mainnet conference, ETH 2.0 does look a lot like Polkadot.

Polkadot bills itself as an interoperable Layer 0 or master protocol, which aims to connect up to 100 parachains (the current plan), and these parachains will compete with its relay chain to share security. We don’t need to discuss the technical details here, but you should pay special attention to the first batch of top 5 parachain agreements that have won the parachain slot auction this month, and they will join the Polkadot network on December 15.

Polkadot is interesting for several reasons, the most important of which is its slow but stable progress (which is the opposite of Solana’s pace), and the development team seems to be reversing the ETH 2.0 model, rather than letting the application escape from Layer 1 in order to improve Friendly application-specific work on the chain (the rollup model of ETH). Polkadot starts with a bottom layer (relay chain) with limited execution capabilities but universal security. The agreement outsources most of the functions (slot auctions) to a customizable execution layer (parachains) at fixed time intervals. This requires participants to continuously purchase and lock DOTs, plus staking and parachain bond derivatives (such as Derivatives on Acala), you have an excellent Ponzi masterpiece.

Polkadot’s progress may be slower and more stable than the other projects in this chapter, but I will not bet against someone who co-founded Ethereum and subsequently built a second $50 billion network.

8. Cosmos and IBC

If you haven’t understood the main points, I will tell you that the interchain theory has won. Cosmos is the first project dedicated to a blockchain modular network, and Ethereum’s rollup center expansion plan contributed to this transaction. The theory of “one chain ruling the world” does not work. Cosmos’ inter-blockchain communication protocol (IBC) does what Polkadot and Ethereum did not do, that is, to keep the protocol completely open and independent of the Cosmos Hub and its native token ATOM.

The Cosmos Hub has no special status in the Cosmos ecosystem. It competes on an equal footing with other blockchains that may seek to act as the central router for data and assets in the entire Cosmos ecosystem in the future.

The initial shared security model of the Cosmos Hub provides the new Cosmos blockchain (zone) with the option of anchoring to the Hub on the basis of opt-in. This is similar to the Polkadot relay chain or the Ethereum beacon chain, but Cosmos Hub is 100% optional. Cosmos regards interoperability as a spectrum, and then the zone and its users choose which security risks they have to bear when connecting to other zones. Completely uncoupled zones may not connect at all, while fully coupled zones may share a consensus process.

Erik Voorhees 很好地阐述了顶级平台的多链叙事演变:

以太坊 Q1:defi,足够去中心化,有点慢且非常昂贵; BSC Q2:defi,不够去中心化,快速且便宜; Solana Q3:defi,可能的去中心化,十分快且便宜; Cosmos/IBC Q4:defi,去中心化,快速且便宜。

Paradigm 的 Charlie Noyes 说得更简单一些:

如果以太坊是一台大型计算机,那么 Cosmos 就是一个用于连接独立服务器的协议。

链的专业化可能是有效扩展链上活动的唯一途径,但Cosmos 并没有为区块链如何模块化以及哪些市场将成为赢家通吃的问题寻求过早的答案。

这就是为什么市值前10的两个区块链项目(BSC 和 Terra)是由Cosmos提供了动力,未来可能还会包括其他公链项目,不排除以太坊。

正如 Do Kwon 在 Mainnet会议上所说的那样:

将所有应用程序都放在一台全球计算机上可能不是一个好主意。 也许拥有一个多链的未来才有意义。

9. Terra和Luna

不少人读完上面几个章节后可能会说:“哦,天呐,这对我来说太深奥了。”

我知道可能让大部分人失望了,但我们将继续谈谈最后的Layer 1话题。

Terra 这类L1公链很有趣,其应用生态系统在今年出现了爆炸式增长。它与韩国支付应用程序 Chai 的合作使得Terra拥有了230万用户,Terra 的算法稳定币 UST的规模从第一年的0 美元增加到目前超过72亿美元,并且可能很快在市值上超过Maker 的 Dai,其合成股票应用Mirror 的锁定价值为15亿美元,略低于Synthetix 的 21 亿美元。而Terra 的 Anchor 协议锁定的 LUNA价值达到了40亿美元,几乎和Lido锁定的ETH(60亿美元)一样多。

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

Terra最大的逆风是已知的未知因素,但目前尚不清楚它们对整个 Terra 生态系统来说是可控的还是灾难性的。

In addition to the struggle between Do Kwon / Terraform Labs and SEC over Mirror and its synthetic stock tokens, there are also concerns about the reflexivity of UST and its use of LUNA as the main source of collateral. In a completely safe-haven environment, it is unclear how resilient Terra and UST are—during LUNA’s spring crash, UST was almost insolvent because the value of LUNA was lower than the total value of UST in circulation. Similarly, it also received $70 million in funding from Terraform Labs to support Anchor’s stable reserves, a systemically important Terra loan agreement. The lender of last resort model worked until it failed.

On the other hand, the Columbus-5 upgrade of the protocol (which includes connecting Terra to all other Cosmos blockchains) and Wormhole v2 integration (introducing LUNA and UST to Ethereum, Solana, and BSC), by extending the protocol to other chains And extend the relevance of UST to other parts of the crypto economy to eliminate some reflexivity. This is why I am still optimistic about Terra’s long-term potential. Only Terra’s stablecoin potential will bring a huge TAM (Total Addressable Market) to the project.

10. The remaining best L1s

There are too many L1 projects, sorry.

Cardano is currently ranked in the top 10 by market capitalization, so this report did not mention that it might make people feel a little neglected, but everyone in my network did not recommend me to replace SOL, DOT, LUNA or ATOM with ADA. In part, if anything, Avalanche is the first bubble team to be ignored because of Big dance, although we will release an important report on the project soon. Algorand has also recently taken some steps, they let Mooch join in. Fantom has the support of Andre Cronje and reporting by Nansen. Near has been very active in incentives and has expanded its ecosystem through the Aurora sidechain compatible with EVM. There are still many items that will not be listed one by one.

This part is to recommend everyone to go to the Messari website for more reading.

Even so, I know I missed some projects. You can use the Messari search bar to search.

Below is the L2 part.

11. Polygon flips ETH

Before we discuss the main players of L2 expansion, it is helpful to review the seven ways we know so far to expand the blockchain:

1. Layer 1 optimization: As we have seen in the above direction, there are many innovative methods that can be used to extend the core blockchain itself. They all make different trade-offs in the same “trilemma” of decentralization, security, and performance.

2. Layer0 interoperability: Ethereum 2.0, Polkadot, and Cosmos IBC all made similar assumptions that their networks will essentially be networks with interoperable chains with a shared settlement layer.

3. Payment channel: This is the method used by the Bitcoin Lightning Network. Users lock their funds in one channel and can operate with other channels using the same script. These are usually application-specific: suitable for payments, but not ideal for most other situations.

4. Side chain: xDai is a good example. BSC can also be said to be a side chain of Ethereum (or at least it may be in the future). The side chain is inserted into some Layer 0/Layer 1 networks and adopts its own consensus security model.

5. Plasma: Usually called “sub-chains” because they are essentially copies of Ethereum. They are independent blockchains anchored to Ethereum through a trust-minimizing bridging system. Each Plasma sub-chain can use its own mechanism to verify transactions, but still uses the Ethereum blockchain as the ultimate arbitrator of truth. Various Plasma designs face many user experience and security issues, and cannot support smart contract development. For example, OMG and Polygon have abandoned the Plasma solution, which makes some people think that Plasma is actually dead.

6、Optimistic Rollups:Optimism 和 Arbitrum使用了这些方案(见下部分内容),Rollup是将计算从以太坊移开的迷你区块链。它们将状态存储(完整都交易数据存储在rollup链中)和该状态的指纹(推送到L1)分开,并乐观地假设指纹代表了rollup上的正确交易历史。由于以太坊存储指纹,因此它充当了真相的最终仲裁者,使 rollup能够承担以太坊本身的安全保证。这是一种“证明有罪之前无罪”的模式,用户可以在“挑战期”期间标记欺诈性rollup交易。虽然完全兼容了 EVM(Uniswap、Sushiswap 已经迁移),但Optimistic Rollups的7天挑战期意味着跨链交易(从Arbitrum 迁移到以太坊主网)不会立刻流动。

7、ZK-rollup:zkSync和StarkWare使用了这个方案,而 dydx 正在使用 StarkWare 技术提供的服务。ZK-rollup 速度极快,因为它们使用了一种叫做有效性证明的东西,这使得它可以立即验证并消除了对流动性挑战期的需要。ZK-rollup在与EVM兼容方面也取得了长足的进步,StarkWare的StarkNet以及ZKSync 2.0带有内置编译器,以支持用 Solidity 和 Vyper 编写的智能合约的执行。但这些与 EVM 兼容的解决方案尚未上线。迄今为止,ZK-rollup 仅支持一些独立的任务,如直接转账和交易(例如Loopring)。

如果你没跟上前面说的,可以看下面这张图:

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

(来源: EatTheBlocks)

如果你仍然迷茫,Finematics 在分解Layer 2以及Polygon方面做得非常出色。Coin98 有一个很好的图表,其展示了以太坊2.0生态,特别是扩容解决方案。Ben Simon(Mechanism Capital)是理解一系列rollup项目的大师,如果以上都对你没什么意义,你可能需要做更多的101认知作业。

回到L2正题。

Polygon 在今年的崛起非常引人注目,我不是在说其币价到现在接近100倍的涨幅,我说的是到目前为止,该团队在构建一个可通用的扩展协议方面取得了多大进展,该协议允许用户及应用开发人员在构建以太坊侧链、Plasma 链或(很快)一个 rollup链之间进行选择。

实际上在活跃用户地址数上,Polygon已经翻转了以太坊,这是一个事实(也证明了扩展性是以太坊生态的首要任务),如果不是因为Polygon 在处理 NFT / 游戏交易方面的作用,今年夏天,用户向 Solana 等替代 L1 的迁移可能会更快。

熟知现代加密史的老韭菜会注意到,现在Polygon 已经比其刚推出时的Matic侧链和 Plasma 解决方案要大得多,它的核心产品仍然是兼容EVM的 Polygon PoS 链和 PoS 桥,

它们从以太坊上的一组 MATIC 质押者那里获得安全性,这条链并不是rollup链,因为它有一个单独的验证器集,但它也不是侧链,因为Polygon 验证器会定期将链的状态提交给以太坊,这导致Polygon团队将其描述为提交链。

从那时起,Polygon 凭借一系列扩展解决方案和补充工具进入了新领域。

在 5 月和 7 月之间,该团队推出了 Polygon SDK(一个用于启动新区块链的框架,可用于rollup链或独立链)以及Avail(Polygon SDK 链的数据可用性解决方案),它还集中精力将 ZK 技术作为 Polygon 生态系统的长期扩展解决方案,8月份,Polygon 与 Hermez(开源 ZK Rollup 扩展解决方案)的合并是将 ZK 集成到 Polygon 核心生态系统的一步。该团队还宣布成立了一只10亿美元的战略基金来投资ZK 技术,并透露了即将推出的基于 STARK 的rollup 项目Miden,它将与EVM 兼容。

长期看来,所有加密项目都会来到零知识证明领域。

12. 他们是乐观的

Vitalik 和以太坊核心开发者已开始采用以rollup为核心的设计来扩展以太坊,这看起来与 Polkadot 和 Cosmos 的设计最相似。建立一系列独立的、与 EVM 兼容的、执行层区块链,这些区块链汇总到同一个以太坊信标链,并且已经在两种不同类型的rollup中取得了进展:optimistic和零知识(ZK)。

而Optimistic rollup,乐观地假设rollup区块链上的所有交易默认都是有效的。他们使用了一种无罪推定的模式,即在L1链上的交易确认要经过一个挑战期,以防止欺诈。作为一种预防欺诈机制,L1链上的交易确认要经过一个挑战期。这就导致在L2回到L1的交易有一些延迟,以允许挑战。但好处是它们 开箱即用,与EVM兼容,这使得开发者可以将现有的Solidity合约从Ethereum的L1移植到Optimistic L2上,只需进行最小的改动。

我们很可能会在接下来的12个月内看到超过80%的链上 EVM 交易量从L1转移到L2上,迁移的速度必须块,因为随着其他Layer 1区块链继续获得市场份额,时间会是上面以上预判能否成立的关键(年初,以太坊的TVL占到了98%,现在这一比例已经降到了66%)。

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

对于某些应用程序(在单个rollup链上聚合大多数流动性),快速迁移到Layer 2可能会更容易一些,但对于其他应用来说,这将更具挑战性。例如,Vitalik 强调需要在今年秋天迅速推动NFT的跨 L2 的迁移。可以预见的是,我们将迎来一个丰富、多链的未来。

13. 零知识证明扩容

Vitalik 认为长期来看 ZK Rollup将处理大多数以太坊交易,它们也可能会颠覆那些L1备选者们。就目前来看,加密领域最具创新性的技术(ZK Rollup)尚未对市场产生广泛影响,但 StarkEx 和 zkSync可能会改变这种情况。ZK 可能是使加密能够扩展到数十亿用户的唯一解决方案,并且它提供了机构需要的隐私保证。

ZK Rollup利用零知识证明(也被业内人士称为“魔法豆”)来近乎即时地确认 L2 链到以太坊 L1 的状态。Loopring、Immutable X 和 dYdX是这项技术的早期采用者,但不要指望它们的成功会引发ZK Rollup的热潮:它们现在不完全兼容EVM,需要项目方进行一些定制才能在 L1 和其他 L2 之间转移。Optimistic 和 ZK rollup之间的可编程性差距将不可避免地缩小(StarkWare 表示其 StarkNet 即将推出),但今天的权衡是关于简单性、兼容性以及结算速度。Vitalik提出的关于ZK rollup占主导地位的说法可能是正确的,但从技术和监管的角度来看,这需要时间以及大量的教育。

我敢打赌,到明年年底, 以太坊L1 交易占据的份额会小于20%,到2023年,Optimistic Rollup占L2总使用量的比例会不到50%,这会比我们想象地来得更快。

14. 跨链桥

很显然的是,多链世界不仅仅是未来,它已经在当下成为了现实。

今天有15条链的资产存储规模超过100亿美元,而比特币和以太坊本身存储了近2万亿美元。增长似乎不会很快放缓,随着Layer 2 rollup的推出,未来几年可能会有更多的区块链项目出现。在许多方面,区块链世界开始类似于我们今天的物理世界,由各个国家定义,每个国家都有自己的经济,由自己的规则管辖。

但区块链生态系统仍然是孤立的,它们就像孤立的国家,交通系统或国际贸易吞吐量都有限。今天,仍然没有可扩展的、去中心化的、广泛集成的协议在区块链之间移动价值和数据,而不依赖受信任的第三方。

相反,用户主要依靠交易所和托管人等中心化中介在区块链之间转移价值,这使得用户暴露在托管风险和扣押/审查风险之下。

幸运的是,有很多团队敏锐地意识到了这个机会,并从 2014 年以来一直在为这个世界构建像Cosmos这样的项目,Dmitriy Berenzon撰写了一篇很棒的文章,概述了各种跨链桥的方法。

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (8): ETH, L1 and L2, cross-chain bridge

正如以太坊的可组合性使开发人员能够将协议打包在一起并构建新的动态应用(例如,Yearn 将资产存入 Compound、Aave、Curve 等,以实现自动化收益),一旦跨链桥基础设施准备就绪并能够解锁加密抵押品,我们可能会看到类似的跨链应用出现。

跨链互操作性也可能围绕少数可信的、广泛集成的协议进行标准化。当今解决方案的不成熟造成了用户和开发者之间的巨大摩擦,但一座可靠去中心化、经过战斗考验、跨Layer 1良好集成的桥可能会因为其可预测性和可靠性而成为跨链流动性的首选。随着多链经济的发展,跨链桥将不可避免地促进大量的资产和数据传输。

预测:在五年内,最流行的L1<>L2/L1<>L1/L2<>L2跨链桥协议的日交易量,将高于最流行的中心化交易所。

15. 打包总结一下

在我们进入参与 web3 经济(以及社会的未来组织结构)的最后一章之前,回顾一下刚刚开始出现在加密领域的令人难以置信的创新是有帮助的。我喜欢这个关于将彻底改变我们世界的23项加密创新的主题帖子。时间会证明短期内市场是否过热,但我们才刚开始进入crypto的超级周期。

这是Day 1。

第九章 DAO亦有道

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (9): DAO also has the right way

大多数技术倾向于使边缘化的工人自动地做枯燥的任务,而区块链则自动去中心化。这不仅没有让出租车司机失业,而是让中心化的优步失业,同时让出租车司机直接与客户合作。 — — Vitalik Buterin

我们前面在监管部分的讨论到了去中心化自治组织(DAO),但没有着重地关注它们,我们需要用一个完整的章节对它们进行解释,DAO是加密货币中最重要的结构之一,它将改变经济、政治的各个方面,甚至可能改变未来几年你的生活。如果说2020年是关于DeFi的年份,2021年是关于NFT,那么2022年将是DAO的一年。

所以也许我们应该先回答一下,什么是DAO?

我在晚餐时向别人描述,我脱口而出地把它表述为“一个管理社区财政的治理结构”。听起来也还不错!

更具体地说,DAO是一种流动的在线社区,其资产由社区的贡献者管理。DAO的组织基础是提交到公共账簿的代码,而不是提交到特拉华州的文章。区块链保证用户的可访问性、透明度和退出权(通过分叉)。DAO 的代币决定投票权,根据群体优先级分配资金,激励参与,以及惩罚反社会行为。我也喜欢这个简单定义:“以共享任务为中心的数字原生社区。” 社区自下而上、灵活且组织松散。他们拥有共同的使命和协议(在区块链上)、内部资本和可执行的社会规范,并且它们可用于管理任何事物包括:开源图书馆、NFT 收藏、社交俱乐部、新闻源、汇集劳动力等。

Orca协议Julia Rosenberg 和 Maria Gomez 也试图推广并将这种定义正式化。他们写道,DAO 是 1) 开源和基于区块链的,2)成员资格开放的,3) 独立团体,4) 使用代币来管理协议和 5) 分配内部资本,目标是 6) 自动化市场或功能,7)防止勾结,以及 8)激励自下而上的社区参与。

如您所见,我们仍在摸索和发声!我们谈论它们的方式在未来几年将会有所改变。但无论它们如何定义,它们都会逐渐发展壮大。

(更多必读: The Ultimate DAO Report* & PresentationThe GeneralistA Prehistory)*

1.启用工具:钱包和抵押

如果过去 18 个月真的只是真正的大趋势的必要先导和安装阶段,即围绕代币管理的社区进行社会重组呢?

如果是这种情况,您可能需要一些工具来帮助您安全地管理代币并点对点地交换它们(DeFi),您需要更好的方式来构建和选择性共享您的个人身份(NFT),并且确保您可以在社区之间顺畅地活动,而不管他们使用了哪些技术堆栈(L1-L2 桥接)。

您的个人钱包是Web3 经济制度和 DAO 的狂野世界的支柱,就像您的个人数据保险库。无论是以太坊上的Metamask或Coinbase,Solana上的Phantom,Terra上的 TerraStation 或其他,国库中的这些代币可以解锁你进入加密货币领域的权限,而且只会在未来几年变得更加重要。五年后,人们可能会看当前的钱包格局并嘲笑我们,但一些解决方案(例如 Zapper、Zerion)表明我们离钱包可以兼作通用标识符和数据管理器的时代越来越近了。

要加入一个新的社交应用软件?指向并单击您想在新俱乐部中佩戴的头像。投注一场比赛?使用真钱或用您朋友的“社会信用”评分。申请新工作?选择性地分享符合你的技能的徽章和积累的声誉。所有这些都需要一个前端,而今天构建的加密钱包将像作为您的手机,它是您生活操作系统不可或缺的一部分。

(必读书目:Packy在他的文章《The Interface Phase》中进行了详细阐述)

2.进入Rabbithole:学习和赚钱

Rabbithole是加密货币领域的前沿中最令人兴奋的趋势之一:“边学边赚(learn to earn)”。

加密经济正在蓬勃发展,用户的思想正在从发展的步伐中融化。而其中最稀缺的资源之一是注意力和真正的用户参与。Rabbithole 提供帮助用户的任务,测试新产品并获得代币奖励。这对所有人来说都是共赢的。代币团队使用他们的资金(这是旨在分配用于增长的流动资本资源)来资助客户的获取成本,Rabbithole 从帮助客户的过程中获得收益,而用户同样是赢家。

该公司估计,其用户从注册一个 ENS Domain这一任务中获得了难以置信的1.75亿美元,这引起了人们的注意。

大型空投在规模上或许是不可持续的,但它们在实践中很可能只处于起步阶段,DAO 有很多钱并且想要用户。并且我们知道这个市场对于那些愿意进行开拓的人是多么有利可图:Coinbase Earn 的年化收入超过0.6亿美元,可以说是最高的,而其他部分业务未得到充分利用。

“学习即赚钱”玩法将很容易被集成到 Web3 钱包和托管钱包中。他们是以更多加密本地人的形式为自己付费的用户教育计划,因此会拥有更多长期持有者。一个区块链也可能有一个Rabbithole。世界太大了(而且社区太虔诚?)因为这是赢家通吃,我希望“任务开发者”最终会在 DAO 社区中成为一项有利可图的职业。

如果你在上大学,我鼓励你在春季学期(也许将你的书本预算重新部署到 ETH费用中),在 Earn、Rabbithole 和其他地方学习和测试不同的加密协议。最好的情况是,您在更多空投中中了乐透。最差的情况?你不及格,而一旦你向他们展示你的不及格分数和 NFT 功绩徽章库,你就会被加密货币公司当场聘用。(说真的:我们获得了不及格分数的应用程序而且我们喜欢它。)

很像 twitter >linkedin 用于网络。学习赚钱将慢慢取代证书,并且在很大程度上会游戏化和颠覆教育资助模式。

3.在 Web3 中工作

在对某个项目有所了解后,您可能想开始深入研究并做出一些贡献。零散工作可以分散在各个项目中,或者是 DAO 或它的相关公司其中一个全职工作的前身。兼职职责涵盖 DevOps、研究、治理、数据科学等。集中式和分散式社区也在快速招聘全职角色。还有一点最重要的是,DAO 可能是建立跨项目的持久声誉的最有利可图的方式之一。Chris Dixon 将 DAO 成员资格与其他历史类比进行了比较:

然而,web3 生态系统的疯狂之处在于其全球可访问性。您不需要出生在特定的城市或获得顶尖的计算机科学课程的入学资格。自下而上的模型和 DAO 的选择加入成员资格颠覆了人才模型。您可以一键加入 Discord 服务器。您可以获得赏金并展示您的工作证明,以通过社区的分散式人力资源、社区凭证赚取声誉点。您可以直接向 DAO 成员申请补助金或提交全职工作的建议。

“就像威尼斯为早期现代欧洲所做的那样,web3正在重新定义全球人才如何汇集他们的知识并一起工作。就像 1970 年代的 Homebrew计算机俱乐部,聪明、热情、“业余爱好者”的社区聚集在论坛上,以修补一组新的生态以构建突破性的产品和体验。这些社区今天是通过 DAO 组织起来的,DAO 是 web3 组协调原语。”

人们同时为多个 DAO工作的情况很少见,除非它担任非常狭窄的专家角色(例如创建数据仪表板或其他研究报告)或后台职能。对于大多数 DAO 而言,好莱坞就是范例。DAO 制作公司提供资金、项目指导和组建团队。这些团队在演出中展现自己的能力和诚意,然后分散并且继续下一个。大型 DAO 将是粘性雇主,但大多数 DAO(包括 较小的DAO 到更大的 DAO!)将更加流畅。Web3“好莱坞”模型的主要区别在于,每个贡献者 — — 无论多小 — — 都可以保留与产品持续成功相关的版税。

我们在西方面临的挑战是理解这是否会加速将白领工作外包给成本最低的投标人。DAO会加剧零工经济中已经困扰其他市场提供商的糟糕劳动力动态吗?

可以说明的是优点会显著多于缺点,早期的贡献者至少会分享他们帮助引导的平台的好处,即使这些平台推动了可变的劳动力成本。不管怎样Web3代币激励都是不能被发明的。

你会在未来某一天为DAO工作的,不妨现在从alpha is highest开始。

(必读: 手册Notes on DAOsThe Future of WorkHow to DAOFull-Time DAOsDAO Reading ListDAO Landscape |观看: What it’s like to Work for a DAOs)

4.层次结构、Pods和流体生物体

如果你加入一个 DAO,你会注意到的第一件事是这里有一个新的“CEO”,连接大多数 DAO 的组织 — — 首席社区长官。这些是抓住生产memes的人,并指挥(希望如此)网络推广者的去中心化军队。在项目的形成阶段,他们可以引导新人获得正确的资源,设定discord服务器的语言和文化,帮助管理早期的内部和外部消息传递。

这会引发几个问题。我们如何在选择新的仁慈的独裁者和维持去中心化的决策之间取得平衡?(Mario有一些想法……他的代币治理准则研究是必读的。)我们如何解决“代币投票”和选民冷漠或共谋?(Vitalik对此有话要说)

加密社区很快就接受了这样一个事实,即 DAO 中的决策与传统公司非常相似,也需要分层。治理问责制、社区“HR”、用户以及贡献者的参与和沟通等都是重要但可以克服的挑战。来自Rari Capital的Jai有一套很好的理论。他建议将角色分解为“气泡”,这允许子 DAO 和离散的、流动的团队的存在,这是 Yearn 开创并在目前使用的。我认为这是正确的框架,它还能通过书面文档推动组织扩大规模。

我们需要看到信息流和决策支持工具的 100 倍改进。与管理全球公司相比,您可以更轻松地管理具有 NFT 或社交货币的全球 DAO 或子DAO(任何身在异乡和国际化的人都知道建立此基础设施是多么不可思议),但这并不能改变如果没有委托功能,当每个微决策都变成代理投票时,DAO 的进展可能会停滞不前的事实。

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (9): DAO also has the right way

(来源:FWB.org)

Orca协议正在研究我所见过的一个较酷的方案之一。他们利用NFT作为访问代币,给成员一个“Pod” — — 一些离散的责任和DAO财政权利。这就像选举小组委员会并定期对结果负责一样简单。然而,监督责任落在集体身上,在这种模式中,良好治理和不良治理的唯一区别是良好的信息(绩效分析)和选民激励(克服冷漠)。

但其实我们早期的DAO实际上并没有那么多样化 — — 根据设计,他们首先奖励早期使用者和“人群”。他们将我们已经知道的关于治理的东西正式化:那些有钱的人制定规则。

都是公平的,但也只是短期的担忧。从当今的全球富豪地位升级到现在,DAO的贡献者和用户可以以惊人的速度获得流动的政治资本和授权,他们可以化名这样做。但这也是征收税收、提供福利和强制执行合规性。看到一些司法管辖区因此为未注册的DAO工作定为非法,我并不感到惊讶。不过,其他司法管辖区也可能会邀请拥有独特税法的DAO工人,这解释了在没有雇主和银行监督的情况下难以征税。

这些事情在这个代币控制的世界实验中发生的如此之早,以至于它几乎让我的脑袋爆炸了。这是未来Messari需要耗费大部分精力的地方。

5.DAO的财政部管理部门

目前的牛市是加密货币短暂历史上最大的财富创造事件之一。任何在该行业有合理风险敞口的机构或个人都认为其净资产/资产负债表在过去18个月里飙升了5–50倍或更多。一些顶级的DeFi协议本身现在价值数亿美元,有时甚至数十亿美元,大多是它们的本地代币。其中两个最活跃的DAO,Uniswap(40亿美元)和Compound(10亿美元)拥有特别大的外汇储备。

你可能会看看这些数字,认为DeFi 协议在财务上是终生的,但深入研究每个财政部的组成就会发现恰恰相反。这些代币性国债的绝大多数“价值”来自于一种反射性的信念,即市场总是会吸收新的供应。这可能会发生在牛市中,但当成交量消退时,情况可能会大幅放松。事实上,这正是5月份股市崩盘时所发生的情况。

不过,顶级项目国债的多元化程度并没有太大:

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (9): DAO also has the right way

在黑天鹅事件期间,代币价格是由市场摆布的。在2018–2019年熊市中,一些依赖这些储备的最佳项目也难以生存。这是在你考虑每个特定资产的特殊风险之前:智能合约故障、黑客攻击、Oracle缺陷和代码错误甚至在DAO考虑可能使整个受影响用户的补救措施之前就会影响代币的价格。如果财政部没有得到妥善管理,这可能会造成一个恶性循环。

其他投资者也注意到了这一点,但尽管人们普遍表示需要在顶级项目中提供更好的财政多样化,但大多数DAO仍没有行动。这有几个原因(开发人员的过度自信,希望避免给社区留下大型代币持有者“倾销”资产的印象、监管挑战等),但在很多情况下,这只能归结为缺乏可见性和决策工具。

像DeepDAO这样的数据源在跟踪项目财务方面做得很好,但并没有提供基本投资组合管理工具所能提供的完整背景。给社区更好的财政分析可以大大改善他们的治理决策过程。

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (9): DAO also has the right way

这不仅仅在于代币管理的最佳行为,还在于缺乏专业的财务经理。真正的财务经理的加入提供了一个巨大的市场机会,并将有助于协议明智地多样化,以确保它们在各种市场环境下获得良好的资本。不幸的是,你不会喜欢大多数财政部经理今天提出的第一个建议:开始卖出。如果资产仅仅几个月后就达到90%,那么第一季度的飙升对DAO没有任何好处。

(必读: A Crisis in Protocol Treasury Management, A Mental Model for Treasuries

6. DAO 投资者关系

我在上一章开始写关于任何人可以创造看起来像 ETH 的第三季度“10-Q”的东西是多么疯狂。投资者关系是健康金融市场的重要组成部分。在加密货币中,高质量信息的重要性高达 11(up to 11 是一个文化流行语,代表着最大限度或明显超过极限的东西)因为社区关系会影响 DAO 与投资者、流动性合作伙伴、技术对手方、核心贡献者、用户和其他网络推动者的沟通方式。强大、透明的财务信息披露是良好公司治理的支柱,但其受到季度会计周期的限制,将信息流限制为一年只有几次。

区块链和 DAO 为季度报告提供了近乎无限的改进,因为信息随时可供检查,处理速度仅受块传播时间的限制。区块链的开放和无需许可的性质导致了巨大的转变,重新定义了协议与其投资者之间的关系。在这个世界上,财务数据是透明的、广泛可用的并且随时可以访问。协议利益相关者能够实时跟踪他们持有的资产的财务状况,信息管理者(如 Messari)可以通过去中心化的开发人员、研究人员和数据科学家社区在任意时间范围内管理更新。

Token Terminal(基本数据)、The Graph(链上数据)、Nansen(资金流)、Dune Analytics(聚合指标)、DeFiLlama(TVL)和 Messari(市场数据和链下事件)现在是帮助用户全面了解协议层面的性能的必不可少的工具。在全球去中心化分析社区中,这些数据源的组合提供了显著的结果。以Compound为例。

Messari 2022 encryption industry in-depth research report (9): DAO also has the right way

我们的季度报告提供了对财务报告未来的一瞥。一位分析师和数据科学家能够合作得出 COMP 在上一季度(包括宏观和微观层面)的协议级借贷活动的摘要,以及与社区治理和项目技术路线图有关的链下事件。这种报告可能会继续遵循熟悉的每季度、每月或每周的节奏,但数据是实时的,任何人都可以探索和组合。

尽管仍有许多工作要做,但为建立新的和改进的财务报告系统的基础所需的基石终于来了。如果执行得当,加密财务报表将与传统的财务报表大不相同。不同于不耐烦地等待季度收益报告,协议声明是由直接来自区块链的实时数据流提供支持的动态文档。所有部件都已准备好组装,现在是时候去构建了。

7. Messari:将一切捆绑在一起

当您将学习与获得入职激励(市场)、充满活力的贡献者市场(HR)、改进的资金管理和委派工具(财务和运营)以及项目报告/社区关系(管理)结合在一起时,会发生什么?您就已经获得了构建替代政治、公司和社会本身的社会结构中现有治理结构所需的全套解决方案。

我很高兴能在 2022 年分享我们对 Messari 的愿景:我们正在建设一个[redacted]。

8. DAO的法律框架

政府通常会做三件事来劝您不要做它不希望您做的事情:征税、罚款(或让您承担巨额个人责任)或切断您的银行服务。一件真正需要弄清楚的事是,从税收、合同法和合规性的角度来看,DAO 在现实世界中的实际运作方式。

理论上,DAO 实际上非常擅长消除“银行服务”问题,因为它本身就是一个共享银行账户。它们在解决个人责任问题方面也不错……如果你匿名工作,并且你有信心你在 DAO 中的其他同胞也会这样做,并且愿意接受如果出现任何问题,集团的责任风险。但是,如果您认为您可以作为成员加入,上报您来自DAO的税款,并且以某种方式不向政府报告您正在与非法人合伙,那么这将真的很糟糕。

就像在掷骰子,不是吗?

对于大多数普通人来说,解决贡献者责任问题,以及将DAOs及其社区纳入全球和地方税收、银行和就业合规领域,将是很重要的。a16z 对如何将合法的 DAO 实体创建为可能具有灵活、独立的子结构的非法人非营利协会提出了一些很好的建议(LexNode 回应了一些相同的想法),怀俄明州已经在这方面处于全国领先地位,因为它承认了DAO 作为一种有限责任公司。(有趣的事实!在 1977 年,怀俄明州是第一个承认实际有限责任公司的州。美国国税局花了 11 年时间才承认这一地位。)这也将成为大多数 DAO 到 DAO 或 DAO 到商业的要求合同工作也是如此。

鉴于迄今为止本届政府对加密货币的积极性,我希望他们对非法 DAO 也采取类似的强硬态度。因此,在美国注册不仅要满足报告要求、缴纳个人税款和提交披露信息,而且还要让持有核心代币的个人开发商承担责任,以防当局裁定这些是发行未注册证券的普通合伙企业。我不责怪团队搬到美国以外的地方。

 (必读: a16z FrameworkThe LAO)

9. 新的资本分配者

我花了一些时间在 NFT 部分讨论了创作者 DAO 和社交俱乐部,所以我将在这里跳过它们,而在本报告的最后两部分重点关注两种特别具有变革性的 DAO:Venture DAO, 和Curation DAO。

在 Venture DAO 上,增长的唯一限制将是天然的法律和监管。原本的“这个代币绝对是一种安全性”这句话是指“The DAO”本身。最初的社区投资工具的需求证明了,(即使在后来)对于用于在已被认可的投资者领地的封闭社区之外访问的,社区投资工具需求有多大。从那时起,人们一直在努力迭代 Venture DAO 模型,并使其合法。Metacartel 将代币投资过程社会化,并提供了一种工具,为流动的 GP 激励铺平了道路(更多工作 = 更多奖励)。该组织可以投资任何可能被代币化的东西:加密货币、公司、NFT、其他 DAO、虚拟房地产许可证,等等。这是投机中的一种灵活性,在“现实世界”中根本不存在,如果不升级我们百年历史的证券法,它可能无法在美国存在。如果你看看加密社区是多么的孤立,那么几乎可以肯定的是,未来也是如此。创始人出于战略原因投资其他创始人,具体原因表现为:善意,对合作伙伴的一致利益,紧跟新兴趋势,对其他新兴项目保持高度关注等。

如今,风投正在投资 DAO。或者 DAO 的 DAO。或者注册为投资顾问,以消除阻止 VC 完全加密的SEC的束缚。后期投资者正在进入 A 系列。早期投资者正在转向永久性资本工具。这几乎就像聪明的钱知道资本市场是动态的,并且发展迅速。Venture DAO 已经很火爆,除非全球监管机构出现挫折,我敢打赌,到 2025 年,最活跃和最大的 AUM 风投之一将是 DAO。我们已经开始看到 DAO 并购也开始升温。下一个前沿领域是将一家 Web2 公司收购到一家 Web3 公司。

 (Must read:  The Future of Venture Capital ,  Venture DAOs: So Hot Right Now )

10. New information curator

“The Internet established Wikipedia without any financial incentives. Don’t underestimate the ability of the Internet to build DAOs.”-Jesse Walden, Variant

If you have been following me and Messari for a while, you will know that I am optimistic about token-driven information management. The basic functions of the v1 token registry have some flaws, but in general, the management market can replace centralized, advertising-driven algorithms, improve credentials and social signals, reduce low-value redundant work, and crowdfunding High-value unique information work service.

Let’s start with the most important premise: the curatorial market can create crowdsourcing-quality incentives for communities with the same mission. “Quality is very subjective!” You say, it’s true — people seem to really like the dopamine (or cortisol?) they get from their current media consumption habits, which is why we are one step ahead of having these Sugary, low-nutrient information source. But web3 did a few different things in three things to change this.

  1. It creates incentives for portable and open user-generated data. Breaking the data silos of Web 2.0 companies will open up endless possibilities.
  2. It allows you to reflect on what you want to curate at any given time: “Hey Facebook, make me happy, make me nostalgic, inspire me, inform me, show me the conspiracy theory and all the facts of this case.”
  3. DAO will allow you to form alliances with tribes or personal signal enhancers and build a well-planned information market around that object.

This opens up possibilities for alternatives to Google search, which do not look like page rankings, but more like custom feeds. Or switch the information filter according to your mood. Or get paid to be a nonsense caller in a post-truth media agency. Substack has monetized the long-form content of the intellectual dark web. What’s next?

Some of the content creation projects I am excited about is PubDAO, which aims to build a decentralized Associated Press. (You don’t need 100 versions of the same basic news story!) There are Messari’s Hub and Analyst DAO for decentralized token research. BanklessDAO is doing some pioneering work, crowdsourcing various channels, and vertically expanding encryption coverage in its community (art, DeFi, DAO). As we mentioned before, we are beginning to see more experiments on how long content can be funded through Mirror.

When it comes to quantifiable data sources, the prospects are equally exciting. The Graph turns a token management model into a multi-billion dollar decentralized blockchain data indexing platform. For token indicators, there is Flipside’s MetricsDAO, I believe we will see DuneDAO soon. Projects such as IndexCoop enable curators and information providers to use their therapeutic strengths and communities to come up with low-elevation discretionary indexes that support new synthetic tools. These are simply impossible to achieve in regulated financial markets, or even if feasible, it will take years and millions of dollars to produce effectively. In addition to encryption, Balaji has also been considering content creation rewards other than encryption, and proposed a competition to create a crowdsourced inflation dashboard.

When I launched Messari to the world in 2017, I wrote that “Encrypted Bloomberg” is not a company, but a network. As an industry, we finally have the tools to achieve this goal.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/messari-2022-in-depth-research-report-on-the-encryption-industry-3/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

Like (0)
Donate Buy me a coffee Buy me a coffee
Previous 2021-12-06 10:35
Next 2021-12-06 10:40

Related articles