Market analysis report (weekly brief version)

– 23 – 2021

Weekly summary :

1,  week Exchange B the TC provide credits trend relative ease, the current exchange B the TC reserve balances about 2 . 4 40 000. E TH mention credits obvious trends, provide credits accumulated about one week. 3 . 5 spindles, beacon chain contract deposit amount Lock single address added over 3 weeks Wanmei.

2. The  fundamentals on the TC chain remain strong, and long-term holders (more than 5 months) continue to hoard the spot, causing the cumulative currency holdings to exceed 12.7 million, a record high. The illiquid currency in the market is close to 1,400. Ten thousand pieces. The hoarding of investors and the obvious buying premium in the European and American markets at night, this wave of rising trends driven by the spot market remains healthy.

3. The Ethereum difficulty bomb has been postponed again, and the recent increase in the activity of FT , G amefi and other sectors has caused the proportion of miners’ fee income to start to recover. The increase in the destruction of popular platforms such as opensea and axie and the application of E TH is enough to show that the industry is booming. Continue. Under this circumstance, ETH miners’ mining profits are expected to continue for a few more months.

4.  Market outlook: Due to the strong fundamentals on the chain, the imbalance between supply and demand has triggered a rebalancing of market valuations, and the upward trend is relatively healthy. Of 3- million dollars is extremely undervalued area, there is a strong chain of chips changing hands, if short-term correction, the rate should not be too large , the overall outlook remains optimistic.

5.  Risk warning: Pay close attention to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting held at the end of the month.

For details, please read the main body of this report:

1.  Fundamental analysis of TC :

Last week, the exchange BTC reserve balance fluctuated generally stable. The current exchange BTC has about 2.44 million BTC , which is close to the low point in 2021, and it is still in a low position.

Exchange B TC reserve balance is at a nearly one-year low


The remaining current exchange bitcoins number of the total have been in circulation Bitcoin ratio of the number has dropped to 12.99 percent, already at the lowest point of January 2, 2021, and this trend since mid-May continued to strengthen, reflecting the current transaction There are fewer and fewer bitcoins in reserve. The bitcoins in exchanges are the main component of the market circulation. The decreasing proportion of bitcoins in exchanges indicates that the number of bitcoins available for trading in the market is gradually decreasing, resulting in The continuous supply shock (Supply Shock), in the case of increasing demand and declining supply of circulating disks, will play a very positive role in the fundamentals of Bitcoin, and will promote the upward price of Bitcoin in the long run.

Since the current round of rising, the ratio of the market value of BTC futures contracts to the total market value is still at a low level, and the funding rate of BTC futures perpetual contracts is also at a low level compared with the value several months ago, which reflects the continuous upward trend. The currency price is still mainly driven by the spot.

The ratio of the market value of TC futures holdings to the total market value is still at a low level, reflecting that the current market is still mainly driven by spot


TC futures perpetual contract funding rate is still low


The Exchange Whale Index, one of the indicators used to measure the exchange’s selling pressure, is currently falling below the 0.85 warning line, indicating that the exchange’s selling pressure is relatively low. The exchange giant whale index refers to the proportion of the top ten inflows of all bitcoins that have flowed into the exchange in the past period of time (such as the past 24 hours). When the proportion is higher than the critical value of 0.85, it means that most of the coins recharged to the exchange are relatively concentrated and the amount is relatively large, usually by the giant whale. In this case, the probability of the market being sold will further increase.

The stock exchange’s Whale Index fell below the warning line, and the selling pressure eased


The LTH (Long Term Holder) counted by Glassnode has been held for more than 5 months, and its total holdings have risen from 10.8 million to 12.7 million in recent months, and have reached a record high. Nearly 14 million bitcoins are long-term investment in an illiquid state. Moreover, in the recent market rebound, the transaction price of the coinbase exchange has a significant premium relative to the Binance transaction, and the intensity of buying in the US market is very obvious during the night trading. Long-term investors have accelerated their currency hoarding, and strong buying in Europe and the United States has jointly promoted the market recovery.

Long-term investor holdings hit a record high


Nearly 14 million Bitcoins are in an illiquid state


The transaction price of the coinbase exchange has a significant premium over the Binance exchange


2.  TH fundamental analysis:

The ETH exchange reserve balance showed an accelerated outflow trend last week, with a net outflow of 350,000 ETH last week . The current exchange ETH reserve balance is about 19 million, which is the lowest level in a year.

While ETH continues to flow out of the exchange, nearly 300,000 ETH were deposited into the deposit contract address of the beacon chain for pledge last week, and the pledge amount of the beacon chain exceeded 7 million.

The balance of E TH reserves in the exchange hit a new low, and the current stock is 19 million


Lock beacon chain continues E TH , the amount of single-Lock added over 3 weeks Wanmei


As the Ethereum difficulty bomb is postponed again, the chain swap that was originally expected to be implemented at the end of the year will be postponed again. The current daily income of Ethereum miners is equivalent to legal currency worth about 60 million U.S. dollars, of which block rewards account for more than 70%. With the increase in the activity of the NFT and Gmaefi sectors, the proportion of miners’ fee income is gradually recovering. The delay of the bomb means that the high profitability of POW chain mining will continue for several months.

The income structure of Ethereum miners, block rewards are the bulk, and the proportion of handling fees tends to increase


penS ea has always been the number one application in the amount of TH burned, and the increase in the activity of the FT sector will also increase the contribution of the fee income on the Ethereum miner chain.


3.  Outlook

Due to the huge on-chain change of hands near the 30,000-40,000 USD, there are a large number of giant whales buying Bitcoin at this price. This position is likely to become a golden pit in the long run. The price range near USD 42,000 is also the price range that has been continuously tested before. It belongs to the position where the pressure level and the support level before the capital increase are swapped. If there is a larger correction, USD 42,000 will be the phased target price. . Due to the strong fundamentals on the chain, there is huge buying support when entering the range below $40,000, so the probability of a larger callback in the market outlook is low. If there is a callback, it will be an opportunity to increase positions.

– million dollars range is funding a substantial change hands in the area, have a greater buying (green bubble) support


4.  Risk warning:

At the end of this month (8/26-8/28), the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting was held in the United States. The market paid close attention to the Fed’s statement on the shift in monetary policy. The shift in the Fed’s monetary policy will bring new uncertainty to the market.


Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

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