Market analysis report (short version)

. 8 – 16 – 2021

Weekly summary :

1. Last week, the B TC withdrawal trend showed a slowdown compared with the previous two weeks, and the deposit and withdrawal rate was not obvious. Exchange B TC reserve balances at 2 44 about ten thousand. The current reserve balance of the exchange is still at a low level in the past year, and the general trend of currency flowing out of the exchange has not changed.

2. The fundamentals remain strong, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Long-term investment is still buying B TC on a large scale , and the Entities Net Growth indicator ( Entities Net Growth) has risen from a low level and hit a record high , reflecting that incremental funds and users continue to enter the market. This has brought about a severe supply shock (S upply Shock ) effect, aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand, and constantly forced the currency price to rise.

3. The indicators M VRV Z – core and the 200 WMA heat map used to evaluate the market bull- bear cycle change reflect that the current bull market cycle has not yet finished.

4, Expectation, B TC came February to Yue shock box (4 .8 – 5.8 million dollars) lower edge, the parties focused their attention on market B TC whether a breakthrough in this position, the trend will affect the depth of each The performance of the big sector. The first quarter and the second quarter fluctuated at this position for three months, there was a hold-up, and the probability of short-term price fluctuations increased. Considering that the fundamentals continue to be strong, the long-term trend of currency price increases caused by the gradual imbalance of supply and demand will not change. If the currency price pulls back, it will be a good time for layout.

5. Risk Warning: this month (8/ 26 – 28 ) Jackson Hole global central banks will be held in the United States, pay close attention to the market the Fed’s monetary policy shift position. If the monetary policy changes, it will bring new uncertainty to the market.

For details, please read the main body of this report:

1. Fundamental analysis of TC :

Last week, the exchange BTC reserve balance fluctuated generally stable. The current exchange BTC has about 2.44 million BTC, which is close to the low point in 2021, and it is still in a low position.

Exchange B TC reserve balance is at a nearly one-year low

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The ratio of the number of bitcoins remaining on the current exchange to the total number of bitcoins in circulation has dropped to 13.28%, which is close to the lowest point on January 2, 2021, and this trend has continued to strengthen since mid-May, reflecting current transactions There are fewer and fewer bitcoins in reserve. The bitcoins in exchanges are the main component of the market circulation. The decreasing proportion of bitcoins in exchanges indicates that the number of bitcoins available for trading in the market is gradually decreasing, resulting in The continuous supply shock (Supply Shock), in the case of increasing demand and declining supply of circulating disks, will play a very positive role in the fundamentals of Bitcoin, and will promote the price of Bitcoin to rise in the long run.

Entities Net Growth (Entities Net Growth) rose from a low level and hit a record high. After each round of the bull market reached the top, new user entities who entered the market also fell with the price, showing signs of termination of entry. In this round of decline, the number of new user entities has not stopped growing, but has recently hit a record high, indicating that off-market users are still willing to enter the market, and it also means that new funds are still pouring in.

The net value added of Bitcoin holding entities hit a record high, indicating that funds are still entering the market 

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Long-Term Net Position Change is an indicator that reflects the increase or decrease in the net position of long-term holders. If the net position of long-term holders increases (the value is in the green range above the zero axis), it indicates that long-term holders are still hoarding. On the contrary, it means that long-term currency holders are selling or reducing their positions. Since the fall in May, Long-Term Net Position Change has been in the green color band above the zero axis, and the value continues to increase, reflecting the strong buying intention of long-term currency holders, and the value of net position change is at the highest level in three years , Long-term investors are not only buying but also very large quantities.

The index of net change in open positions reflects that long-term investors have been absorbing and buying in a downward trend, and the buying volume is very large 

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The 200-week moving average heat map is a common indicator for simply judging the bull and bear cycle. This indicator calculates the monthly growth rate of the 200-week moving average, and combines the price and the position of the 200-week moving average to determine the bull-bearing cycle.

Due to the existence of the halving mechanism, the halving greatly reduces the supply in the market, and promotes the upward trend of the currency price under the condition of increasing demand. Therefore, from the perspective of market fluctuations, there is a relatively obvious bull-bear cycle change every four years on average. The top of each bull market is higher than the top of the previous bull market, and the bottom of each bear market is higher than the bottom of the previous bear market. Therefore, every four years, the price of Bitcoin will surpass by a large margin and show a long-term upward trend. The 200-week moving average is just close to 4 years, and its trend also reflects the long-term price fluctuation trend of Bitcoin, and it has never fallen.

In the different stages of the bull and bear, the growth rate of the 200-week moving average is also different. In a bear market, the growth rate of the 200-week moving average is flat; in a bull market, the opposite is true. Statistics on the 200-week moving average growth rate changes in different periods can assist in judging the change of bulls and bears.

00 -week moving average heat map that reflects current market still hot

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MVRV Z-Score uses blockchain analysis to determine when Bitcoin is extremely overvalued or undervalued relative to its “fair value”. It uses three indicators:

Market value (blue line): Bitcoin’s current price multiplied by the amount of tokens in circulation.

Realized value (orange line): Realized value is not the current price of bitcoins, but the price of each bitcoin the last time it moved, that is, the price of the last time it was sent from one wallet to another. Then add up all these individual prices and average them. Then multiply the average price by the total number of coins in circulation. In doing so, it eliminates our short-term market sentiment in the market value indicator. Therefore, it can be regarded as a more “real” long-term measure of the value of Bitcoin, and its market value fluctuates up and down according to the prevailing market sentiment.

Z-score (red line): A standard deviation test that extracts the extreme value in the data between the market value and the realized value.

The MVRV Z-Score indicator is used to judge the bull-bear cycle with high accuracy, and it is still within the normal range. Even at the April high of $64,000, the indicator has not entered the overestimation area.

MVRV Z – Score valuation indicator reflects that Bitcoin’s current bull market cycle has not yet finished

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2. Outlook

BTC has come to the lower edge of the market box shock from February to April. All parties in the market are closely watching whether BTC can break through at this position. Its trend will deeply affect the performance of major sectors. The first quarter and the second quarter fluctuated at this position for three months, there was a hold-up, and the probability of short-term price fluctuations increased. Considering that the fundamentals continue to be strong, the long-term trend of currency price increases caused by the gradual imbalance of supply and demand will not change. If there is a correction in the currency price, it will be a very good timing for the layout.

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3. Risk warning:

At the end of this month (8/26-8/28), the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting was held in the United States. The market paid close attention to the Fed’s statement on the shift in monetary policy. The shift in the Fed’s monetary policy will bring new uncertainty to the market.

 

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/market-analysis-report-short-version/
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