Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

We are in the bubble of everything.

Original title: “Are we in the huge bubble of NFT and public chain? 》

If you turn on the TV or read the financial media, financial experts and investors will talk about the “bubble of everything.” There are multiple stages of a financial bubble, and although each fanaticism has its own nuances, in retrospect, the market and the experience of its participants almost always have something in common.

Howard Marks: “We are in the bubble of everything”

Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue published a widely circulated chart of economic bubbles, in which he identified four different stages of the bubble, called (i) invisible stage (ii) consciousness stage (iii) fanatic stage and (iv) burst stage.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Taking the fall of the S&P 500 index as a sign of the occurrence of a “bubble”, according to Bank of America data, the S&P 500 index has undergone 17 different 30% corrections since its creation, and 4 of these have occurred in the past 30 years (2020 Years, 2007, 2002, 2000), among which the “busting” stage was catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the global financial crisis (GFC), 9/11 and the technology bubble.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

What is rarely discussed is the psychology of market participants at each stage, especially as the duration of the consciousness/mania stage is getting longer. This is our current situation. Although it fell by 30% from February to March 2020, the rebound was so fast that for most market participants, it felt like an extension of the bull market in risky assets since March 2009. Some market participants call it the “bubble of everything.”

In the current “crazy phase,” we seem to have gone through two distinct phases, which have been exacerbated by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, real rates of return, and the corresponding appreciation of risky assets.

  • There Is No Alternative (“TINA”) 1.0-As the signs of fanaticism/disappearance begin to penetrate, the forerunners want to hold cash because it is “safe”. We have seen the personal savings rate hit a record high, companies raise cash and suspend dividends/repurchase/mergers, etc…
  • TINA 2.0-After months of negative growth in real yields, people began to consider the disadvantages of holding cash, because the negative wealth effect is very real. Seeing the surrounding asset prices continue to appreciate, people began to deviate from the risk curve. The latter usually peaks during the “destroy” phase.

The theory of “bubbling of all things” is too simplistic and not fair to all parts of the market. Therefore, we hope to disassemble the causes of these “bubbles.” And, if we do see the “disappearance” stage, then where is the opportunity?

Monetary/Fiscal Stimulus

Since the 2019 coronavirus pandemic, the world has implemented 32 trillion US dollars of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. In terms of the proportion of global GDP, this is the largest stimulus measure in history. During this period, global central banks spent US$834 million per hour to purchase bonds, and currently about 25% of government bonds have negative yields. Taking into account inflation, the proportion of negative real returns is much higher.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

In the United States alone, the Federal Reserve has purchased US$4 trillion in bonds in the past 18 months, while the US government’s hourly expenditure in 2021 is US$875 million.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

This makes people further deviate from the risk curve. As we said in the past, “The unlimited quantitative easing policy turns your savings account into a checking account, the bond market into a savings account, and the stock market into a bond market. The venture capital market has entered the stock market, and this has led to the crypto market becoming a new venture capital market.”

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Response to physical assets

We have seen a sharp appreciation of commodities. The S&P GSCI index rose by 120% from its low in March last year. Commodities such as copper rose by 102%, aluminum +82%, corn +80%, nickel +49%, and gold +22%. Wait… We once saw a 300% increase in timber prices (now still 20% higher than the level in March 2020), while the US CPI used car value index rose 45% year-on-year.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

If we look at the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city comprehensive urban housing price index, we will find that the year-on-year increase of the index is approaching the level of 2004-2006. Now, the median house price is a multiple of the median income, at the highest level in history.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Is it a real asset bubble?

Are we in a bubble of physical assets? It depends on the situation:

  • Commodities: When we consider electric vehicles, policy-driven decarbonization goals, and the macro benefits of renewable energy, one of the common themes is “Electrification of Everything.” At present, in the commodity world, the story of the “big six” is being staged among copper, nickel, silver, lithium, cobalt and aluminum. The supply and demand dynamics of the first three are the clearest. Take copper as an example. So far, there has never been a demand breakdown. So far, apart from copper, there is no known technology that can conduct electricity. In automobiles, high-efficiency motors consume 75% more copper than standard motors. The copper consumption of electric vehicles is 4 times that of ICE and requires copper-intensive charging stations. In addition, renewable energy sources, including wind and solar energy, consume 4-5 times the amount of copper that is generated by traditional fossil fuels. Therefore, copper has real demand drivers.
  • In contrast, when timber rose by 300% in less than 12 months due to a shortage (which was soon alleviated), a bubble would appear, but for most commodities, the market would increase supply when feasible. Well offset the increase in demand.
  • Used cars: Rising prices for used cars are unsustainable. Due to supply chain shortages and changes in behavior, automakers are unable to produce the number of cars required by demand. In view of the average age of car ownership and the alleviation of supply chain bottlenecks, this situation is alleviating. The 2006 Ford Mustang may not continue to appreciate at an annual rate of more than 20%.
  • Housing: possible. The only time we have seen house prices rise so fast was before the real estate crisis. Nevertheless, in the 10 years after the global financial crisis, we have seen a substantial change. There has been a structural shortage of housing in the United States. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has set this number at 5.5 million units (2 million units). Single-family houses, 1.1 million sets of 2-4 bedroom houses). Freddie Mac estimates that the current housing shortage is 3.8 million units.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

From 1968 to 2000, an average of 1.5 million new houses were added every year, and from 2010 to 2020, this number has been hovering around 1 million. But as homebuilders observe the trend of housing prices, and millennials finally start to buy houses, you can expect that the supply will start to climb to 1.5 million units, possibly reaching 1.8-2 million units per year, which will limit the existing The rate at which house prices continue to appreciate, even when supply catches up with demand again, triggers the start of the “next round”.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Stock market reaction

How does the stock market respond to this unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus? In the spirit of TINA 2.0, funds flowed into the stock market at an unprecedented speed.

As of the beginning of August, the Global Equity Fund has had an inflow of US$605 billion so far this year, which will reach US$1.015 trillion in one year, which is equivalent to US$3.98 billion per day. In the past 25 years (96-20 years), global equity funds have accumulated an inflow of US$727 billion, equivalent to US$115 million per day. 2021 is expected to be 40% higher than the sum of the previous 25 years.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Although we have seen an increase in the number of companies listed through IPO/SPAC, the number of investable companies has not kept up with the inflow, so a re-rating occurred. Looking at the total market value of stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 20 times, we have exceeded the high of the technology bubble by nearly $1 trillion.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

If it feels like the market is hitting record highs every other day, it’s because it does. As of August 24 this year, the S&P 500 Index has hit 50 all-time highs, and only two times in history have so many new highs in August: 1964 and 1995.
U.S. stock market bubble?

The bears pointed out that the price-earnings ratio, CAPE, etc. are all at historical highs… This does not take into account the stock risk premium and the source of income. During the 1999-2000 period, the 10-year treasury bond yield was 5-6%, while currently it is about 1.0-1.5%.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Comparing today’s S&P 500 index with that on August 24, 1999, the current estimated earnings per share ratio is 21E/22E, which is lower than the actual price-to-earnings ratio in 1999-00. But it is worth noting that the equity risk premium at that time was negative because the US Treasury bond yield was higher than the market yield, and today it is +3.2%-3.6%.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Some people believe that the broader “fair market multiple” has been rated higher in the re-rating based on the medium to high P/E multiples due to the following factors:

  • Composition changes-Today’s largest market players are growing faster, more profitable, and have higher profit margins than the largest companies about 20-50 years ago, so all other things being equal, higher multiples are guaranteed. l Convenience of diversified investment-ETF creation, and investors can easily invest 500 or 2000 different companies at 5-10 US dollars, which can support higher multiples than highly concentrated investment portfolios.
  • Global-The proportion of large US listed companies’ sales outside the US continues to increase, providing greater geographic diversification than they did 20-50 years ago.
  • Interest rates-as countries’ debts increase, they cannot afford higher real interest rates, because interest will become the largest single expenditure, leading to higher equity multiples under the same other conditions.

People often say “this time is different”, but apart from being the same “index,” today’s S&P 500 index has almost nothing in common with the S&P 500 index itself 30-40 years ago. After the global financial crisis, if you look at the market value of the S&P 500 index divided by the Fed’s balance sheet, it is almost a straight line; “Don’t go against the Fed.” Since January 2009, the ratio has averaged 4.6 times, with the lowest being 3.4 (March 2009), the highest is 6.7 (December 2019); today, it is 4.7 times, in line with the 10-year average.

In the world of TINA, the US stock market will not “scream” a “bubble” at the current level.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Private equity / venture capital?

The financing environment is stable. Whether it is KKR or BX financing US$59 billion / US$37 billion in the second quarter, or the US$350 billion in capital inflows into APO, APRES, BX, CG and KKR in the following 12 months, for allocators, The interest in investing funds in private equity is never-ending.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Global private equity investment funds reached an all-time high of US$1.9 trillion in January 2021. Once these funds have capital, they need to be allocated to repeat this cycle. The acquisition transaction activity in the first and second quarters of 2021 set a quarterly record. In the first half of 2021, the total acquisition transaction value of 993 transactions was 354.2 billion U.S. dollars, which has surpassed the total value of 257.3 billion U.S. dollars of 1,429 transactions in 2020. Taking into account the public market valuation, SPAC’s capital and the wider public market’s acceptance of growth, the average acquisition multiple in 2020 has reached 11.4 times EBITDA.

risk:

We have seen similar activities in the financing of the venture capital ecosystem. For example, Index Ventures raised US$3.1 billion a year after raising US$2 billion, Accel raised US$3 billion, A16z raised US$2.2 billion in cryptocurrency funds, etc. …. So far this year, GP has raised US$74.1 billion, not far from the record of US$81 billion in 2020.

According to Pitchbook/NVCA’s “Risk Monitoring in the Second Quarter of 2021”, we see a quarterly record of US$75 billion in venture capital in the first quarter of 2021, and a quarterly record of US$75 billion in the second quarter, leading to the first half of 2021. The total amount reached 150 billion US dollars. The 21-year super round (above 100 million US dollars) has already begun. We see that the first quarter of 2021 set a quarterly record of 75 billion U.S. dollars in venture capital, and another 75 billion U.S. dollars in venture capital was created in the second quarter, leading to 150 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter. The 2021 Super Round (above 100 million U.S. dollars) has reached an annual record high of 85.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

We see more and more “non-traditional” venture capital investors participating, such as mutual funds, hedge funds, corporate investors, and cross-industry investors.

“It is estimated that 3301 transactions have received investment from non-traditional institutions (81.8% of the highest level in 2020), and the transaction value is US$115.9 billion (close to the total in 2020). Although the transaction participation rate of these institutions in recent years Only a small increase, but the value of transactions represented by non-traditional institutions is soaring. The median size of later transactions involving non-traditional investors exceeded $43 million in 2021, which is nearly 1,800 higher than the same median in 2020 Ten thousand U.S. dollars.”

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

The first half of 2021 witnessed the explosive growth of cross-border investor participation, with a total of US$63.5 billion in capital in 524 VC transactions, which is expected to exceed US$100 billion by the end of the year.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Taking into account the amount of capital, we see an increase in the valuation of early and late transactions. Pitchbook said: “In terms of valuation, the median and average of early valuations in the first half of 2021 have also increased significantly to US$42 million and US$96.1 million, respectively, which is a significant increase from the US$30 million and US$61.7 million in 2020. .”

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Looking specifically at the financial technology sector, we have seen record capital investments, larger transaction sizes, and a significant surge in median/average valuations.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Paul Tudor Jones wrote an excellent letter in May last year, entitled “Huge currency inflation.” In the letter he outlined assets that can be used as an inflation hedge. He compared gold, the yield curve, the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin is identified as the asset most likely to outperform the market.

“I also put forward the reason for owning Bitcoin, which is the essence of the scarcity premium. It is actually the only large-scale tradable asset with a known fixed maximum supply in the world. According to its design, the total amount of Bitcoin (including yet Mined) cannot exceed 21 million. Approximately 18.5 million bitcoins have been mined, and about 10% remain. On May 12, the mining reward of bitcoin-the rate of increase in the supply of bitcoin-third The second’halving’ (transactions added to the blockchain decreased from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins per block). Future halvings will also follow the Bitcoin design and occur approximately every four years, thus continuing to slow down The speed at which the supply grows. Some estimates that the last Bitcoin will not wait another 100 years to be mined.”

It turns out that this is the right choice to a large extent, especially when it comes to Bitcoin.

Crypto bubble?

The “market value” of cryptocurrencies has now risen by 1358% in the past 18 months, while BTC has risen by 885%.

Are we in a crypto bubble? We believe that while studying BTC, layer 1 smart contract protocols/DeFi and NFT in depth, it is important to distinguish large-cap cryptocurrencies from some of the more speculative fringe parts.

Bitcoin

On Black Thursday last year, Bitcoin was sold about 50% on that day. Few people could predict that in 18 months, our Bitcoin price would reach 50,000 U.S. dollars. Companies such as Square, Tesla and Microstrategy would Bought Bitcoin on its balance sheet, insurance companies like MassMutual bought $100 million, Wirehouse Bank provides Bitcoin exposure to its PWM customers, or due to the participation of crypto lobbyists, a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill It may be shelved, and the SEC stated that futures-based BTC ETFs may (finally) be approved in the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin currently has a market value of 900 billion U.S. dollars, second only to the U.S. dollar, euro, renminbi, and yen, and is the fifth most valuable currency in the world. From this perspective, you can think of this as an extension, because the number of commercial transactions through BTC is limited. But the bull market theme has been “digital gold” for some time, and this is what companies/pension funds/insurance companies/macro funds are buying, so fiat currency may not be the correct frame of reference.

Although we cannot accurately estimate the market value of the current gold price, a safe range is between 9 trillion and 13 trillion. According to Bitcoin, it is equivalent to $428,000 to $620,000 per Bitcoin, which is higher than the current level. 775%-1163%. Very few investors with macro investment can allocate billions of dollars, with 8.5-12.5 times upside and 60% -70% downside.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

When Stanley Druckenmiller first bought Bitcoin, it was because Paul Tudor Jones told him:

“Did you know that when Bitcoin fell from $17,000 to $3,000, 86% of people held Bitcoin for $17,000, but they never sold it?” In my opinion, this is a big deal . So this is a limited supply, and 86% of its holders are’religious’ fanatics. “

There is more “downside support”, and those who have the most say will convince you, because Bitcoin “has no support” (although it has the largest dedicated computing power in the world).

What makes a thing a good store of value? PTJ ranks assets according to four characteristics:

  • Purchasing power-how does this asset maintain its value over a period of time?
  • Integrity-how is it considered by time and generally as a store of value?
  • Liquidity-how quickly can assets be converted into trading currencies?
  • Mobility-if you have to do this for unforeseen reasons, can you move the asset geographically?

Today, Bitcoin scores higher in terms of liquidity/portability than gold. Due to gold’s thousands of years of leading advantage, Bitcoin has failed in “credibility”, but since the birth of BTC, its purchasing power has been more biased towards BTC. Below is the BTC/Golden ratio chart.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

People who are bearish on Bitcoin often mention MySpace/Facebook, or Blackberry, to emphasize that “first” technology does not always win. This shows that people have fundamentally misunderstood the purpose of Bitcoin as a store of value. The origin story of Bitcon and the anonymous founder cannot be copied. He will be one of the richest people in the world. He has not sold any BTC in 12 years. This is a fair start without VC. Anyone in the world can participate. , Completely open source with volunteers around the world, committed to completing the “project”, FTE is 0, and marketing budget is 0. Subsequent attempts were funded by venture funds, early crypto whales, and well-known teams. It is not technology that wins, but the security and decentralization of the network. Bitcoin seems to have an insurmountable lead in this regard.

When we see the transition of wealth from baby boomers to millennials, Z generations (late 90s-10s), and Alpha generations (10-25 years), they grew up in a native digital environment and will All time is spent in the virtual world. What kind of hedging method do they prefer? As Travis Kiling puts it, it is “a non-sovereign, hard-supply, global, immutable, decentralized, and digital store of value” that can be used to prevent irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies by central banks and global governments. Is the insurance policy a “yellow stone”?

There is about 10% probability that BTC/Gold will roll over. In fact, you have permanent call options that have no expiration or theta decay, making BTC a very compelling macro asset, and it is difficult to consider at the current level The emergence of “bubbles”, even if we see another 50-75% drop (as we have already done this year).

ETH / other L1

In the past 18 months, there has been a lot of debate about DeFi, because the total lock-in value (TVL) in DeFi smart contracts has now risen from US$925 million in March last year to US$80.6 billion. We wrote about the evolution of DeFi and existing financial market infrastructure here.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

As the leading L1 protocol, ETH continues to occupy a dominant market share in DeFi, Web 3.0, NFT, and gaming, as measured by market capitalization, developer activity, TVL, and nominal transaction dollar value.

Is there a bubble in ETH? Raoul Pal recently called ETH the “greatest transaction” in the history of financial markets in the next six to nine months. He mentioned that ETH was established for the “three halvings”. EIP 1559 significantly reduced the supply of ETH by burning fees, as well as the launch of ETH 2.0 and transition to Proof of Stake (“PoS”). He emphasized that the number of ETH addresses is growing faster than BTC (60% per year versus 30% per year), and more importantly, the number of transactions is also growing. At the beginning of August, about 26% of ETH was locked in DeFi smart contracts, and only about 13% of ETH remained on the exchange for trading. In his view, this is a perfect storm of large-scale supply shocks for assets showing exponential demand.

We can argue that ETH faces more intense competition from other L1 competitors, and this is indeed a technology battle. To win DeFi, Web 3.0, NFT, and games, you need to have a high-performance blockchain and make appropriate trade-offs between scalability, security, and the decentralized blockchain trilemma. Currently, ETH is working on scalability because the network can handle about 30 TPS, block generation time is 14 seconds, and transaction fees range from a few dollars to several thousand dollars, depending on the network’s congestion. It is not enough for billions of people to join Web 3.0. Users will expect an experience comparable to that of using the Internet today—instant/free, with intuitive UI/UX, and we definitely don’t have one yet.

We don’t believe that there will be “a chain to rule the world”, but liquidity and network effects tend to gather in a small number of winners who specialize in technology (such as AWS / Azure / Google) and transactions (such as ICE / NDAQ / CME / CBOE) , So it is necessary to invest in this aspect. Similar to the origin of Bitcoin, the advantage of ETH is that it has created intergenerational wealth for thousands or even tens of thousands of developers who participated in ICOs or early purchases of ETH, provided them with a very loyal developer ecosystem and incentivized them They see it in operation. Although decentralized purists will cringe when they hear this, just like when investing in a company, an investment agreement is an investment in the team. Vitalik Buterin is the most well-known cryptocurrency developer besides Satoshi Nakamoto, and this is for good reason.

The winner of the L1 protocol may receive a bonus of more than US$1 trillion, so is the US$375 billion ETH in a bubble? If ETH 2.0 fails, sharding proves to be sub-optimal, and decentralization actually hinders the product There is no doubt that the $375 billion Ethereum will become the 24th largest company in the world. What if they can execute ETH 2.0? There is still asymmetrical upside, and there is no need to make binary bets because of liquidity. The currently issued ETH is either a short-term dynamic transaction of supply and demand, or a clear bet that they will be executed in accordance with the established roadmap in the next 3-5 years (which has been under development since 2016).

Who else has a chance to win L1 rewards? Let’s take a look at Solana. There are a lot of discussions about “Solana Summer” on Twitter. From Memorial Day to the present (August 24), the price of Solana has risen from US$24 to US$70, and the price at the beginning of this year was less than US$2. Packy McCormick just published an excellent review on Solana, which speaks for itself, but as we have seen, Solana is the most significant direct competitor of ETH today. Solana’s block generation time is 0.4 seconds, the transaction fee is only a small part of a penny, and the current maximum capacity is about 65,000 TPS. You can monitor the status of the network here.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

The irony is that when Dfinity, Polkadot, Tezos, Cosmos, EOS, Algorand, Dfinitiyt and other agreements raised billions of dollars, Solana failed to obtain major venture capital in 2017-2018, which is the most for them. Good thing. Similar to ETH, they must release products and organically build a developer community. They launched the first hackathon in November 20th, with 1,000 people registering, the second time there were 3,000 people registering in February, and the third time in May they had 13,000 people registering.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

You will see that real teams are built on SOL and real trading activities. The FTX team built Serum on top of SOL, which SBF calls “the highest performing blockchain”. Since the launch of the mainnet in March 20, we have now seen about $25 billion in transactions on SOL (this includes consensus news, so the actual number may be 1/2 of that), while ETH is about 1.25 trillion, BTC Is about 665 million. When users are offered nearly instant and free transactions, they will have more transactions.

Does SOL have bubbles? Considering the bonuses it will receive for winning the L1 competition, the adoption of traditional trading companies and crypto-native companies, and the growing organic developer ecosystem, plus the discounts it offers compared to other L1s, if it can become the L1 winner For one, you can say that its relative value is still underestimated.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

What about other large-cap cryptocurrencies?

When you look at assets such as Cardano’s “value” of 90.5 billion U.S. dollars (without smart contract function for about 4 years or more), 54.6 billion U.S. dollars of XRP and 39.1 billion U.S. dollars of DOGE , it is difficult to see the token holders in the future 3- Holding these assets within 5 years will generate returns above the market. This is cryptocurrency, and anything can happen, but those undoubtedly represent the bubbles in the “big-cap cryptocurrency”.

Looking further down, hundreds of “zombie chains” are valued at hundreds of millions of dollars or more. The valuations of countless “zombie chains” are only attributed to “circulation” supply, which is of no use other than speculation. For some people, this is what you need, but as time goes by, attention will shift. Most of the attention will definitely be signs of bubbles and excesses in the crypto market. We expect that in the next 3-5 years, There will be a major destruction of “wealth”.

NFTs

In an SNL skit show at the end of March, NFT has clearly become mainstream. Although some of the early surplus products have disappeared from the market, since then, we have seen Beeples sold at Christie auction houses for $69 million, and the price of the “cheapest” Cryptopunk has risen 15 times since the beginning of the year. Above, Visa conducted a “re-evaluation” of the market overnight with a purchase price of US$150,000. One punk sold for a record US$7.8 million, and other listed “bids” ranged from US$5.5 million to US$7.7 million. Degen Apes was sold out in 8 minutes. Even though the server crashed, Justin Sun spent $500,000 to buy a pet stone.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Anything in a vacuum seems to be an indicator of “topping out”, like a video clip of LeBron dunking a dunk in a meaningless regular season for $208,000 (this is the top four for him). The selling price of cards) is the same, which seems to indicate that the February NBA Top Shot (until today), or when Cryptokitties reached 6-digit sales on December 17, also marked the top.

Macro insight: Are we also in the bubble of NFT and public chain?

Similar to the collections/artworks in the real world, there are some things that others are willing to pay for, and the world of NFT will not be any different. Owning Cryptopunk means you can afford Cryptopunk. Whether this is a display of new wealth in the virtual world, like owning Ferrari or Patek Philippe, is controversial.

Are we in the NFT bubble? There is no doubt that there is a surplus. Just as the world of high-end art, sports memorabilia, cars, and watches has created a generally accepted “valuation” ranking based on cultural significance, scarcity, and life span, the world of NFT will revolve around similar The value levels are combined, but there is not yet. Can people sell “pet rocks” for $500,000 in 3 years? Probably not. Can that buyer sell a meaningless random dunk video of LeBron in the regular season for another $200,000? Unlikely. Can Visa sell its “floor punk” for $150,000 in 3-5 years? This is more doubtful. People are having fun now, as Fred Wilson said, NFT is at the connection point of “games, online communities, and social networks.”

We are in the early stages of the first real “consumer opportunity” trend in cryptocurrency, when you see Jay-Z using Cryptopunk as his Twitter avatar, or Paris Hilton receiving Degenape, or Axie Infinity game revenue explosion It’s hard to ignore the momentum of potential consumer experience built on the crypto stack, and now NFT is showing this trend.

Most of them are not suitable for us, but art, cars, watches or wine are not suitable for us either. Just be careful that the market continues to create machines that supply supply to meet demand, because creating digital supply is much easier than in the physical world.

in conclusion

If global central banks and governments continue to print money, investors will face the dilemma of TINA 2.0, that is, cash really “burns a hole” in their pockets, not only pushing them into risky assets, but also further deviating from the risk curve, exacerbating The wealth inequality along the way leads to further risks.

So are we in a “bubble of everything”? In almost every corner of the financial market, there must be surplus, but there are also plenty of opportunities.

 

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/macro-insight-are-we-also-in-the-bubble-of-nft-and-public-chain/
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