“A lot of experts today are doing what a lot of hackers were doing back in the day, which is solving difficult things relatively easily, but missing out on inventing GUIs and Dropbox.”
Some observations and thinking are very personal, based on the so-called classical perspective and empiricism. It does not represent the general opinion, let alone whether it is correct. The Metaverse and Web3 can easily get caught up in a battle of beliefs that doesn’t make much sense.
Blockchain will be the key to facilitating the formation of this Metaverse. As Fred Ehrsam mentioned in 2017 (the article was very popular), blockchain has become the backbone of the Metaverse. This logic is correct, but the premise is still: 1. More people choose to live in the virtual world , Invest more time, energy and resources 2. The computing power is up to the standard, and the technology is mature.
On the first point, the concept mentioned by Shaan Puri is that the time spent in the physical world in the past was weakened to 85% by TV, 70% by computer, and 50% by mobile phone, so it can be proved that the future will be more and more less and less, so people live in a digital world. This is too lack of argument, logic slippery.
No matter how the Internet technology develops, it can only solve one problem, that is , the problem of information .Information can be words, sounds and images, in the abstract it is audio-visual. VR is a better audio-visual experience, but it is still audio-visual, and a small part of sports (universal walking equipment has been developed for many years, but there is still no civilian use). In the color, sound, fragrance touch method, it can only solve the problem of color (the current refresh rate will still be dizzy after playing for a long time), and the others are still very far away. Meituan Takeaway and Didi Taxi only have APPs without any value. No matter how advanced technology is, it can’t solve the problem of food and food, and it can’t solve the problem of sex life.
Someone complained about it on Twitter, but I can’t find the original post. The gist is: I know Web 3.0 is great, but have you tried sex? Same reason.
As for the issue of computing power, I am not an expert, but I also know that many underlying technologies of the blockchain consume a lot of money. It’s unimaginable that the rendering experience is excellent to the level of the number one player (and multiplayer is synchronized in real time). If you are interested, you can listen to the podcast “Metaverse Criticism” by Mr. Chongqing in the machine core. As a game lover, he said a lot of things in his heart: Why should game practitioners explore things for so many years and be brought by you? Cheat money, and in the name of being able to reduce dimensionality and attack the game?
(The Matrix 4, the word of mouth is a bit fluttering.)
But the Metaverse will come sooner or later, if we position it as a “more immersive digital experience” rather than the extreme “all human beings live in the Metaverse”. After all, what is visible to the naked eye is that VR devices are becoming more accessible, Half-Life and Rhythm lightsabers are becoming more playable, and devices are becoming lighter. VR devices are strong competitors to PS and Xbox.
It’s just that I am very pessimistic about achieving a fully immersive experience, and the field of cranial nerves is still a fog for scientists. The brain-computer interface is really achieved, and people live in the Matrix, and everyone here will be able to see it in their lifetimes.
But if you’re a tech optimist, you should be all in Musk’s Neuralink. Other cranial nerve research teams may not be smarter than him. The key is that he has the ability to make money.
As Fred and Matt say, crypto is the Metaverse. As people spend more in the digital world, more money will be spent in it.In the centralized property rights system, it is true that both ZF and big factories can deprive property rights. I have seen with my own eyes many creators and friends on Zhihu, their hard-working accounts were suddenly blocked, and assets with hundreds of thousands or even millions of evaluations in the market were instantly cleared. This does not happen on blockchain-based platforms. Data is becoming more and more important, so this is a means of resisting the monopoly of big companies and the right to privacy.
If it is said that the confirmation of rights is a more effective guarantee of property rights in the bit world than in the atomic world, I agree with this. It’s just that the premise is still that the Metaverse appears, and everyone spends more time in the virtual world. However, the growth of Douyin has slowed down, and I can’t imagine any new technology that can replace atomic time and continue to break through the use of the screen.
And so the Web3 story emerged.
Web 3 is more anxious than the Metaverse, because arbitrage is visible to the naked eye, so it is easier to fire. Web3 is about the confirmation of digital property rights and efficient transactions, as well as the use of blockchain protocols (for example, users have to pay authors), which can make the world a happy world for creators.
The logic seems to be correct. But what I wonder most is, are creators doing particularly badly right now? The content of classmate He can affect the stock price of listed companies, and the comedian chat meeting has also received business orders, and it is getting better. The value of a product stems from the poor experience between new and old, and confirmation of rights is definitely not the only nor the most important requirement for creators. Without the blockchain, creators can suddenly become awesome.
As far as the current ecology of various platforms is concerned, how to promote the good creation of creators is a very complicated matter, and it is not just a matter of “confirming rights”. Do creators have good creative tools? Can you quickly match the right followers? Is it possible to receive positive feedback? Can I have my own private space for discourse? These are all issues to be solved. Confirming rights and being able to charge them are both secondary and not that difficult.
Look at how complex Zhihu’s creator center is today. Can these experiences happen naturally only with confirmation? Still need a centralized organization to complete.
You may ask, what do you mean by what you just said, Zhihu Big V was deleted? I agree this is a problem. Large platforms need to be supervised by public opinion, need to have supervision, need to have a clear agreement with creators, and even transfer some data autonomy to creators, which are all trends. This trend is based on specific problems and specific solutions. It does not mean that everything must be Web 3. The operation and organization of the platform is still more important. Just like you have developed a mortar, it does not mean that it is reasonable to shoot guns everywhere. Some scenes are suitable for pistols, and some are suitable for grenades.
In addition, the story Web3 tells is that the blockchain can bring equality, and everyone is a creator. I have experienced platforms such as Zhihu, Official Account, Station B, and Xiao Universe, and I am skeptical about whether there is so much valuable content worth spreading and charging. The last time I talked to kyth, he also sighed that in fact, after so many years of development of podcasts, he still feels that there is a lack of good content (the most unique things about podcasts should be amplified). Is the life of ordinary people really worth seeing? In terms of social reality, the microphone is in the hands of a few people, so the same is true of Weibo Zhihu and the public account. This is the cause, not the effect.
A report on short videos in 2021 said: “Creators present a typical pyramid structure, and the accounts at the head, waist and tail (divided by the size of fans) not only have significant differences in proportion, but also tend to be stable in structure. From the statistical distribution of short video account traffic From the point of view, the traffic advantage of the head account is obvious. The number of single short video playbacks of more than 100,000 only accounts for 5% of the total number of statistics, but more than 80% of the traffic is concentrated.” This situation is in the B station, Zhihu , Xiaohongshu is like this. The Gini index of traffic remains high.
It is not that with new technology, ordinary people can be discovered. Kuaishou Douyin did get some people discovered, but most people are still silent with 0 likes, 0 followers and 0 comments. The future of the Internet is the creator world?Disagree.
The threshold for creators is lowered not by blockchain, but by good tools. A mobile phone, a low-cost 4G network and a handy video editing software can make a talented rural person a star. rather than by right.
As a content creator, I am well aware that some people have stolen the concept of confirmation, and said that confirmation is as big as the sky. And now the right to confirm, can only clarify the ownership, there is no way to limit the right to use. Unless it is written dead in the underlying protocol of the Internet, the avatar you bought will be automatically destroyed when someone else uses it. This is a fantasy.
So the result is that if you write an article, others will apply for forwarding if it is decent, and if it is not decent, it will be directly edited. Drafting is completely impossible to solve with any existing technology. AI may be able to assist, but it often fails to solve the problem. Seeing that there are disputes over manuscript washing on the WeChat public account, it still relies on the comments of netizens to make decisions.
You drew a cute hippo, and the other party changed it into a walrus. How do you confirm the right? You wrote a hip-hop rhythm melody, and the other party changed it to a slow-paced love song. How do you confirm the right?
(WeChat official account’s draft collegiality)
Of course, the value of NFTs (collectibles) can be seen in the confirmation. The value of collectibles is derived from “consensus”, that is, whether everyone thinks this is awesome. The blockchain only improves the efficiency of rights confirmation and transactions.
NFT products like SandBox have similar gameplay in Web 1.0. Million Dollar Homepage is this kind of thing, a 1 million pixel advertising space, sold in a basic unit of 10×10 pixels. Alex Tew spent just €50 to register a domain name in mid-2005, and in early 2006 actually made a million dollars. (By the way, his current product is Calm, one of the most well-known meditation apps.) Alex Tew proved that as long as he is a credible person himself, he can also fulfill his promise to ensure these people in 16 years. property rights.
Digital content is inherently free, which is also the driving factor for the development of the information age. However, since we have found a way to make digital content verifiable, the emergence of such NFT products can also be very happy.This is the same logic as buying luxury goods and art, and it has nothing to do with the creator’s economy.
I recently spent a little money to experience it myself and bought some fun avatars, such as the “Old Cadre Orangutan Activity Center”. Many people will do NFT as an investment. My suggestion is that if you are not “in the circle” like me, it is better to be cautious. The NFT investment market is a completely different game. The top players rely on information asymmetry to cut leeks. Unless you have enough patience and strong information collection capabilities, you may just join in the fun.
For me, I just treat it as a recreational consumption, not an investment. It feels much better that way.
There is gradually a resurgence of ideology in the market, that is, the supremacy of technology. It is believed that everything today is caused by technology, and everything in the future will be technology as king. This theory uses induction: steam technology brought the industrial revolution, information technology brought the information revolution, and Internet technology and mobile phones brought the mobile Internet revolution. Thus, the blockchain can bring about another new revolution. This is also an inexplicable logical slippery slope.
From another perspective, in history, demand has always led the development of technology . No technology has been developed first, and then preached and used everywhere. For example, rocket technology developed rapidly during the Cold War arms race. After the end of the Cold War, the power dropped sharply; for example, early artificial intelligence has been developing slowly for decades. Progress. VR technology was pulled by adult films in the early days, and blockchain technology was pulled by virtual currency in the early days. It’s all about the scene first and then the technology, or when the technology appears, a suitable scene is encountered.
My biggest problem with the Metaverse and Web 3 is that I don’t see anyone making a scene particularly clear. Any good technology in history is based on user needs. Even with blockchain, most people don’t need to know how awesome it is, the difference between Public and Private, the details of hashing algorithms and self-verification, they just need to know “If you buy a coin, it may go up three times next year. times” or “with this transaction, it is impossible for zf to trace you”.Buying coins can be established because it has a scene.
When it comes to the Metaverse and Web 3, often the beginning of the story is that “blockchain is the technology that changes human beings, and is the foundation of the future world.” This is meaningless, and then repeatedly emphasizes a few key words “decentralization” “Confirm the right” and “a new ideal world”, Che Hulu said.
Many believers like to say the rotten saying “before the car appeared, users would think that they needed a faster horse”, which as a psychological comfort well resolved everyone’s doubts about the user scene. But the problem is, you don’t care whether the user needs a horse or a car, what the user needs is fast, there is no doubt about this. Can Metaverse and blockchain-related technologies really make users feel better? I don’t see any valuable description.
Every successful Internet product in the past decade can clearly and effectively describe good needs and scenarios. The seemingly devastating “technology-driven products” still create user value behind them. Douyin is fun, and it can crush other offline activities. Takeaway is convenient, Pinduoduo is cheap, without exception. It is often used to try to falsify the products of toB, which seems to be difficult to describe the scene, but look at the SaaS companies that have not been able to tell what they can bring to the enterprise over the years, and a few survived.
Any product with no technology on the ground will have no way to gain a foothold. Bitcoin is enduring because it is fundamentally a financial instrument. Do we need so many financial instruments? Discord is very powerful, because it makes the organizational form of communication more flexible and efficient, and the efficiency is explosive; relatively, DAO has been in a mess recently, but apart from Air Coin and Discord channels, several public accounts and WeChat groups, there is nothing “real” “?
Another personal observation also supports my feelings: many Metaverse and Web 3 followers are investors, currency players and young product managers. Those who dislike these two concepts are game practitioners, programmers and early Internet entrepreneurs. Except the butt determines the head and the interests are related, the other meanings will not be discussed.
Metaverse proponents generally like to speak of freedom and positive transformation of society.
Let’s take a step back and say that there will be a big explosion of technology soon, and many scenarios can be realized. The blockchain does not need to consume electricity and consumes the force; VR technology can directly pierce the temple. Is living in the past centralized in the digital world really good?
This kind of utopia is already very close to anarchism. There are indeed different opinions on what this extreme liberalism and individualism can bring, but there is a high probability that there will be no good results. There is no system of violence that serves the collective, knows the bad factors, and the result is that the bad guys make more money. I’m definitely not a professional in this regard. I only know that it’s a logical slide to deduce that “a decentralized digital world must be good” from “big factories are exploiting our data ownership and privacy rights”. Specific problems still have to be solved in detail.
Taking another 10,000 steps back, utopia is really good. In a decentralized world, everyone can enjoy happiness and freedom. But can the things that the Metaverse and Web 3 proponents do now really make a utopia?
What I see more is that they are grabbing territory in the so-called new world, they are pulling more believers and making quick profits. What’s more deadly is that the elites now have more right to speak. I have seen a very funny sentence: in the future, on the blockchain, everyone can define their own token with code, and can write their own ideal agreement with code, etc. Isn’t this threshold obviously filtering out most people?
More importantly, no matter what kind of so-called decentralized blockchain protocol, the so-called democracy advocated will eventually fall to a few human beings. These few people, whether they are voted by the deputies of the National People’s Congress or voted in the form of one person, one vote, must be the elites, and they decide all the rules of the game.
Twitter founder Jack said, you don’t own Web3. It is owned by VCs and their LPs (capital partners). It will eventually become a centralized entity.
He was later blocked by Web3 leader Marc. This thing is not Web3.
As the old saying goes, as long as the relationship between people and society doesn’t change, it doesn’t matter what form it takes. It doesn’t matter at all whether it’s a physical person or a digital person. Whether it’s fiat or a token doesn’t matter at all. Just like in online games, Fantasy Westward Journey, which handles inflation very well, also relies mainly on central agencies, rather than the self-organized form of players’ spontaneous democracy.
In 1827, after the German chemist Willer used potassium metal to reduce elemental aluminum from molten aluminum chloride salt, European nobles used aluminum tableware to show off their wealth.
In Asimov’s “Base” series, the people of Trantor, the capital, lived a life of great material abundance. The entire planet was shrouded in metal buildings, housing tens of billions of people in layers. But, but, in a radius of ten miles where the palace is located, there are lawns, soil, and water sources. The royal family still enjoys a huge luxury. This luxury seems to be something we can afford on a daily basis, but it is easy to understand why the royal family wants such a privilege in a world where everyone cannot see the sky.
(You can see the sky from the gate of the palace. The first episode of the American TV series “Base”.)
Consider this photo again:
If the Metaverse of the future becomes a reality, enjoying the physical world is a new luxury. The poor are not allowed to take off the VR glasses, because they may lose tokens and points after taking them off; elites and nobles can enjoy the wind and wheat waves in the farm, the refreshing after the rain and the live singing of singers. I thought about it over and over again, and it’s almost a certainty. (Looking at how long different types of apps are used, this even seems to be happening?)
Or, look at the supporters of Web3 today, are they really “altruism” thinking about problems for the majority of the earth’s compatriots, or shouting “Come on, I’ve made a lot of money” “The top brains of Harvard and Yale are here”. Everyone joins?
Let’s take another 10,000 steps and say that the future of Web3 is ideal. That can also look at the skinny reality of the current Web3. In this regard, you can refer to this well-known article by Moxie Marlinspike: “My first impressions of web3”.
The key points discussed in the article, combined with my own experience, are briefly summarized as follows. If you’ve ever bought something at OpenSea, it should be easy to understand.
1) Users don’t want to run their own servers. For example, the original Internet was decentralized (everyone could build their own email service), but most users were too lazy to research and would not use it. . The result is that centralized platforms are favored, and there are products from some giant companies (Gmail, 163).
2) The protocol runs much slower than the platform. In the future, Gmail, WhatsApp, etc. will definitely not be on the chain. Chat tools and online collaboration will be useless if they are on the chain. Also more central: The ecosystem in the industry is developing rapidly (with agile iterative methods), and decentralization may not keep up.
3) In the current Web3 field, everyone is enthusiastically discussing decentralization, distributed trust, etc., but there is a lack of attention to the client/server interface. That is, the protocol itself cannot provide functions, and these platforms that appear in the application layer are providing functions. For example, MetaMask is just a layer of skin, it calls Infura, and Infura interacts with the blockchain. And MetaMask is the most popular wallet application, which means that many Web3 users hand over their data and privacy to these two companies. Users think they are using the blockchain, but the data has all flowed through these application-layer products.
4) For example, as a digital artwork, NFT does not actually store the image on the chain, otherwise it is too expensive. So what they store is just a URL, which points to a server built by Apache. If the data in the server is tampered with, the NFT is tampered with. Moxie did an experiment to display different images according to different IPs, and as a result, in OpenSea, Rarible and wallets, I saw three completely different images (pictured). Later, this NFT was removed by OpenSea.
5) Another important point is that if the NFT is delisted by OpenSea, the NFT in the wallet will also disappear! Because the wallet does not view the content of the blockchain, but only the content in the OpenSea API. Look at it this way, essentially, your stuff exists in OpenSea.
6) The current gold rush seems to be decentralized, but in fact the future may be even worse. People have registered their debit cards on these centralized platforms and traded with tokens. The result is that Web3 can achieve fast transactions that Web2 cannot. In the end, it might turn into a worse Web2 (less privacy).
7) Moxie finally emphasizes: We should accept the premise that users will not design a distributed trust system by themselves, without any distributed infrastructure. We should reduce the cost of building software, before 50 people wouldn’t be called a small team. Now we should try to make software creation easier, not harder.
If you haven’t used OpenSea and wallets, here is a version that is too long to read:
You can think of the blockchain as a perfect privacy storage mechanism that can record and exchange information well without revealing any of your privacy. For example, if you have 3,000 yuan, blockchain technology can prove that you have 3,000 yuan without you actually taking them out; at the same time, if you want to buy something, the transaction record will be disclosed to the entire blockchain, which is extremely secure. What NFT is talking about is: you are an artist, you have created a good work, and you want to sell it. If you sell it on the blockchain, the entire blockchain cannot tamper with your copyright, which will be permanently recorded.
However, the status quo is that no user builds a server on his own computer to do the infrastructure. For example, most people don’t even have a full-node wallet, they only store it in the online wallet, and the agent platform handles it. This is no different from Alipay and WeChat Pay. In addition, what Moxie found is that NFTs are not directly stored in the blockchain, but they have a separate copy of specific information, and the blockchain is just a simple URL. All you have is something called a “mnemonic phrase”, which is the original password (most people probably copy it in a paper notebook).
So the reality is this:
These application-layer companies, all of which have physical teams, are high-value technology startups, and they are raising funds and going public. The result is, as Moxie puts it, the new Facebook and Google.
There is only one possibility to avoid this situation: the computing performance is so far beyond our imagination that the data transmission cost is negligible at the bottom; at the same time, there is a large amount of open source infrastructure that can be easily used by everyone (such as mobile phone embedded) . I don’t really believe in this future. Moxie also said that the current development of the industry is a long-term iteration of experience accumulation, and products with good experience are always designed by people. It is not realistic for each user to participate in the protocol in a decentralized manner.
Finally share a tragic personal experience. Rather than saying that Web3 is not friendly to me, it is better to say that a product with only technology and no experience cannot continuously accumulate users.
Shaonan recommended my article “Why it’s too early to get excited about Web3” by Tim O’Reilly about Web3. He is the proponent of Web 2.0 and founded O’Reilly Media. He mentioned several core points in the article, which are also excerpted here, so I won’t make redundant explanations.
The cycle of centralization and decentralization has been happening throughout history. Microsoft centralized around OS manufacturing, which was later broken by the internet, and now Google and Amazon are re-establishing their monopolies.
Investors are keen to invest because these behaviors can make them rich, but they don’t mean they have real value. For example, it is clear that the proceeds of NFTs have been taken away by a small group of people. Or, the exchanges are making a lot of money right now, but essentially trading overvalued investment assets.
Encrypted new technologies work well in purely digital realms such as the gaming industry (VR), digital artwork and sporting events. But there are problems when integrating with the physical world, and many operations need to be done by traditional limited companies.
There are two kinds of bubbles, one is the tulip fever, the bubble bursts when it bursts and disappears into the long river of history.
Another bubble that can bring about the construction of infrastructure. 1st Industrial Revolution – Road Canals; 2nd – Rail Ports and Posts; 3rd – Electric Water Supply and Distribution; Oil Age – Interstates, Airports, Hotels and Motels; Information Age – Chip Plants, Telecommunications Systems ,data center.
For example, Musk is now taking advantage of Tesla’s high valuation (market value is 1500 years of profit) to invest in more research on charging networks, batteries and cars; Bezos is also doing more e-commerce infrastructure. They are also doing commercial aerospace infrastructure at the same time.
Web3 now, is there any evidence that these technologies are working (becoming mousetrap)?
Observations after Web 2.0:
The companies that survived were profitable.
No need to raise huge sums of money. Companies that continue to rely on financing are essentially financial tools.
Active users are growing rapidly.
They all have unique, massive, sustainable assets based on data, infrastructure, and differentiated services .
Not necessarily all rising stars. Microsoft and Apple, for example, have gone through the ages.
When the dot-com bubble burst, Google Maps wasn’t there, neither were iPhones or Androids, let alone Twitter and FB.
The same goes for Web3. Instead of focusing on getting rich quick, we should expect a lot of things that haven’t been created yet. We need to focus on issues of trust, identity and decentralized finance. The most important thing to pay attention to is the interaction between crypto (encrypted currency) and the real world.
I actually quite understand the current enthusiasm for the Metaverse and Web3. Obviously, the environment is changing, and new elements of the Internet have not appeared for many years. If there is a new concept, even if it has something to do with “subversion”, you must take a look.
Finally some of my suggestions. In order to prevent being called fatherly, I declare that this is my own advice to myself, and it is indeed my staged conclusion after studying Web3 and the Metaverse for a period of time. I did it myself, of course not guaranteed to be correct.
About investing. If you want to take advantage of the wind and speculate to make a profit, you must distinguish whether the hoe is in your own hands or someone else’s. The most important thing in investing is the asymmetry of information, and the uncertainty of Web3’s assets is very high. In addition, investment needs to be cautious, and you must protect your account. No one in Web3 can help you recover your losses. Sometimes it is all over if you fill in the wrong address, and the “mnemonic words” are also kept in the physical world.
About the underlying technology. For example, the technical details of the underlying data layer or protocol layer of cryptography and blockchain are completely unnecessary. I don’t know compiled language, I don’t know machine learning, I don’t know js framework, and I didn’t delay our research and make good Internet products before.
Keep information sensitive about new developments in Web3 and the Metaverse. There are a lot of things in these two concepts, but there are still many practical projects in it. There is a simple criterion for distinguishing which progress needs research and attention: how many users . It’s not how many people on Twitter discuss it, how much financing it gets, how many awesome stories they tell. It just depends on whether it is really applied, and the number of users has skyrocketed.Try to distinguish between an upswing and an inflationary period.
It is pointless to do so much preparation until the real new technology elements (such as computing costs are almost zero, or brain-computer interfaces are mature) before they arrive. Just like if you were involved in the field of unmanned driving 20 years ago, you will not have any input in the past 20 years except for concepts. In the field of autonomous driving now, more experts in the travel industry and machine learning industry will be recruited. So be patient and do what you can control first.
In many vertical fields, large factories actually left a lot of space. Such a classical flomo as Shaonan can also attract a lot of paying users, and the small universe can also grow bigger and bigger from the gap between Himalaya and NetEase Cloud Music. Not to mention some of the things to be transformed in other traditional industries. Shell is solving the real estate problem, community group buying and new retail are solving the grocery shopping problem, catching more fish is solving the second-hand book problem, three and a half are solving the problem of convenient coffee, and Pinduoduo is solving the agricultural product problem.
We firmly believe that solving practical problems and creating user value is the only way to go . No matter how the technology develops in the future, a user interface as elegant as the iPhone must exist and be created by product managers. Be patient and wait for the next cycle to come . Paul Graham recently said a paragraph, can be used as the best comment. The gist of it is that many experts today are doing what many hackers were doing back then, which is to solve difficult things relatively easily, but they missed the invention of GUI (graphical user interface, the basis of computer systems and mobile phone systems) and Dropbox. They focus on technology, but it is the user experience that allows users to grow exponentially.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/lets-talk-about-the-metaverse-and-web3-again/ Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.