Last week’s market analysis report (short version)

– 06 – 2021

Weekly summary :

1, last week the exchange B TC net to mention 30,000 coins remaining in the exchange B TC balances 2 43 spindles, at a low level in nearly a year. Last month the exchange B TC mention currency trend is clearly accelerating, whales address accumulated in the past ten days 4 .1 ten thousand B TC , the exchange B TC reserve balances back to a downward spiral of currency upward price constitute favorable conditions .

2. In August, when the currency price surpassed 50,000 US dollars for the first time, there was a small wave of long-term investors throwing coins, but then this selling pressure disappeared. The probability of occasional situations is higher, and most long-term investors still choose to hold coins. the total holding money had exceeded 280 spindles, a new high.

. 3, TH exchange flows significantly faster, single week net outflow. 1 . 4 spindles, and single chain beacon pledge weeks 1 . 3 Wanmei E TH , E TH and B the TC also faced with supplying exchange impact, need Rebalance supply and demand through the upward currency price.

4. On September 4, TH had a single-day burn volume exceeding the block reward, and it entered a deflationary state for the first time in history. This situation may often happen during a bull market. However, it should be noted that most of the hotspots that gave birth to E TH’s entry into deflation came from the N FT project. On September 4, the amount of destruction of two applications , o pensea and m loot , accounted for the top two, and it was E TH that entered deflation. The main contribution. This kind of transaction demand may not be real, and there are many behaviors of left-handed and right-handed. If the popularity of the FT sector recedes, Ethereum may return to inflation. This is also the fatal flaw of the IP-1559 protocol. It aggravates the volatility of Ethereum’s inflation rate and weakens the asset hardness of TH (S 2F). Value), more like a tool to help the rise and fall.

5. Market outlook: B TC price stability has risen to a staged high, which means that the volatility of TC has dropped to a low level in the past period of time . This usually means that the market is already in a window of change. Considering that the fundamentals are still strong and the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the market supply shock continues, the probability of an upward trend in the next few months is high.

For details, please read the main body of this report:

1. Fundamental analysis of TC :

Last week, the exchange’s BTC reserve balance maintained a net outflow trend, with a net outflow of about 30,000 BTC in a single week. The current exchange remaining BTC is less than 2.5 million, which is close to the low level in April this year.

Last week, the exchange B TC net withdrawal was about 30,000 , and the exchange B TC balance hit a new low since April

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The ratio of the number of bitcoins remaining on the current exchange to the total number of bitcoins in circulation has dropped to about 12%. This trend has continued to strengthen since mid-May, reflecting that there are fewer and fewer bitcoins retained in the current exchanges. Bitcoin in the exchange is the main component of the market circulation. The declining proportion of Bitcoin in the exchange indicates that the Bitcoin available for trading in the market is gradually decreasing, causing a continuous supply shock. With the continuous increase and the continuous decline in the supply of circulation disks, it will play a very positive role in the fundamentals of Bitcoin and will promote the upward price of Bitcoin in the long run.

The direction of exchange B TC balance is opposite to the direction of market fluctuations, and the trend of currency withdrawal has spawned a big bull market 

WV1bzpEoN3x4Zco0NVDK8FaEr5pavRekgkmuyhK9.png

The Whale account obtained after Glassnode adjusted the known holding entities has hoarded approximately 41,580 Bitcoins in the past 10 days, and the holdings amounted to close to 6.08 million, a record high since June. These giant whales continue to attract money in the market decline, especially when Bitcoin is in the position of 30,000 to 40,000 US dollars, its holdings have increased the most.

Whales in the past Tian hoarding 4 1580 Mei Bitcoin

7HuILVIpSNKXoUc4rStDZeYvrcoZjTOFh8rqCXCH.png

Under the trend of giant whales’ fund-raising + withdrawing coins, exchanges are facing increasingly severe supply shocks. The exchange supply shock refers to the circulation outside the exchange divided by the reserve balance in the exchange. When the ratio goes up, it means that many coins have become the coins that the exchange thinks, and most of these coins are not highly liquid bitcoins (transactions). Bitcoin in the exchange is the most liquid), and the currency available for trading is becoming scarcer. At present, the exchange supply shock index has reached a record high, and the trend of the index and the currency price is highly similar, and the upward volatility of the currency price is getting stronger and stronger.

The huge whale’s fund-raising + withdrawal has caused the exchange to face a serious supply shock

MClrnNSv8ov1x4JYoVwtyE18gg7eDEMBlDE8bKay.png

Spent Out Age Band is used to measure the spent UTXO holding time. If the holding time is longer, it indicates that the old coins or long-term investors are selling. When Bitcoin rushed to US$50,000 for the first time in August, there was a short-term sell-off by long-term investors. However, when the currency price rushed to US$50,000 for the second time, this situation had not happened, indicating that some long-term investors Profits have been settled, but no more long-term investors have seen a sell-off, and the market’s smart funds are still willing to continue holding.

Long-term investors had a brief sell-off when the currency price returned to above US$50,000 for the first time in August, and then this selling pressure gradually disappeared.

j7Mz5N7tbKYVw6Q4GYy98rasPlG7EZZNsiqa7iN9.png

The LTH (Long Term Holder) calculated by Glassnode has been held for more than 5 months, and its total holdings have risen from 10.8 million to 12.8 million in recent months, and have reached a record high. Nearly 14 million bitcoins are long-term investment in an illiquid state. Moreover, in the recent market rebound, the transaction price of the coinbase exchange has a significant premium relative to the Binance transaction, and the intensity of buying in the US market is very obvious during the night trading. Long-term investors have accelerated their currency hoarding, and strong buying in Europe and the United States has jointly promoted the market recovery.

Long-term investor holdings hit a record high

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2.  TH fundamental analysis:

The ETH exchange reserve balance showed an outflow trend last week. Last week, there was a net outflow of 140,000 ETH. The current exchange ETH reserve balance is about 18.65 million, which is the lowest level in a year.

While ETH continued to flow out of the exchange, nearly 130,000 ETH were deposited into the deposit contract address of the beacon chain for pledge last week, and the pledge amount of the beacon chain exceeded 7.4 million.

The balance of E TH reserves in the exchange hit a new low, and the current stock is 18.65 million

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Beacon chain Lock E TH continues to grow rapidly, new Lock single week an amount of 1 Wanmei ETH

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The current single-day income of Ethereum miners is equivalent to legal currency worth about 89 million U.S. dollars, of which block rewards account for about 52%. Block rewards accounted for about 52%. The proportion of block rewards revenue fell sharply in August. The reason is that the increase in NFT block activity promotes the ETH chain. Activity has increased, and the proportion of transfer fees on the ETH chain has risen to 48%.

The income structure of Ethereum miners, the proportion of fee income has increased rapidly

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Due to the continuous growth of activity on the chain, the amount of Ethereum burned on September 4 exceeded the number of block rewards for the first time, and it entered “deflation” for the first time in history. In a sense, “deflationary” Ethereum will weaken the circulation supply. Quantity, reduce supply, and push up currency prices. However, just considering the formation mechanism behind it, the deflation of Ethereum may only be maintained during the bull market, and it will return to inflation during the bear market. The reason is that the current state of deflation is mainly contributed by the heat of a few sectors, such as the opensea platform and mloot of the NFT sector, which became the two applications with the highest amount of destruction on the day of Ethereum deflation on September 4. Other sectors, such as the defi sector, contributed significantly less to the destruction volume than the NFT sector. The buying and selling behavior in the NFT sector cannot be accurately traced to real transactions, and many of them have left-handed and right-handed, so real transactions may not be so high. Therefore, the deflation during this period cannot be regarded as Ethereum has entered a long-term deflationary state, and further observation is still needed.

On September 4, the amount of TH burned exceeded the block reward, entering a deflationary state for the first time in history

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penS ea has always been the number one application in E TH destruction, and the N FT sector is the main reason for the substantial increase in TH destruction.

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3. Outlook

The stability of Bitcoin price has reached a new high in the short term, that is, the cumulative volatility of the price has dropped to a recent low. At this time, the market is often in a window of change. In the past year, when Bitcoin price stability exceeds a certain peak, subsequent changes will occur. The direction of the change needs to be combined with the fundamentals. In addition to the deterioration of the fundamentals in April this year, which led to a decline, the price stability of Bitcoin in the past year has reached the conditions for the change, and there has been a sharp increase.

Currently around US$50,000, the heat map of the ratio of buying pressure to selling pressure also reflects that large funds are still buying bitcoin (Figure 13 bubble chart). Combined with the above data in this article, the probability of changing the direction of the upward movement is greater.

Bitcoin price stability has risen to a staged high, indicating that the market volatility has dropped to a low level, and the market has entered a change window

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Comparing buying pressure and selling pressure, the green bubble near $50,000 is larger, indicating that funds are still buying

17LZrc4bJVYnekhrCTQ86gc58K79CjMoy3kRwBm7.png

 

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/last-weeks-market-analysis-report-short-version/
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