Large Institutions Accurately Foresee ETH Pullback, Retailers Become “Winners” in BTC Crash

BTC fell below the $50,000 mark, and several types of accounts accurately ‘predicted’ the pullback.

Large Institutions Accurately Foresee ETH Pullback, Retailers Become "Winners" in BTC Crash

On May 15, CFTC released the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (May 5 – May 11). The performance of BTC price during the latest statistical cycle was very subtle, and the market did not show particularly obvious fluctuations during the whole week.

Total positions (total open positions) rebounded from 8,306 to 8,469 in the latest issue, ending the previous four-week decline. The market’s downward momentum over the past period of time has also weakened the market’s sentiment to reduce positions, and the overall market positions in the latest statistical cycle recovered the full decline of the last statistical cycle, although the specific details of the position increase still need to be seen in the actual position adjustment status of various accounts.

In terms of sub-data, the long position of the largest dealer position rose further from 500 to 516, the short position rose from 93 to 113, the long-short two-way (hedged) position fell further from 151 to 131, and large institutions increased their long-short two-way positions for the second consecutive week, taking into account that the market in the latest statistical cycle Considering the limited volatility of the market during the latest statistical cycle, it is not surprising that the dealer accounts continued their operational thinking from the previous statistical cycle. However, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, the dealer account’s position increase could be considered another “error of judgment” as the market experienced a rapid decline immediately after the end of the statistical cycle. In the last month or so, the largest institutions in this category have been less than optimistic in their control of the market pace.

The long positions of CRAs rose from 370 to 383, while the short positions fell from 994 to 910, down from an all-time high and ending a four-week streak of gains, and two-way positions rose from 20 to 112. The fund managers made a clear net long position move in the latest statistical cycle, abandoning their continued short positions while adding to their long positions. As the most determined “short-sellers” in the past few statistical cycles, such accounts instead in the market before a wave of rapid retracement in the position shift in thinking, which shows that the management institutions for this wave of retracement has also misjudged.

Leveraged fund accounts fell from 2,544 long positions to 2,319 in the latest statistical cycle, and the rally did not continue, while short positions fell from 5,507 to 5,419, with two-way positions rising further from 328 to 502. Leveraged funds failed to continue the long-short synchronized increase last week, while the long position ratio also returned to below 30%. The leveraged funds were relatively accurate in judging the pullback at the end of the latest statistical cycle compared to the positions of the two large institutions.

In terms of large positions, long positions rose to 2154 from 2020, rebounding from a near 13-week low, while short positions rose to 292 from 258, and two-way positions rose to 114 from 87. Large accounts did not make explicit unilateral transfers during the latest statistical cycle, but rather made simultaneous increases in multiple positions. Considering that large accounts had net air conditioning positions in the last statistical cycle, the simultaneous adjustment of positions with limited impact on the long/short position ratio in the latest statistical cycle can also be interpreted as “adding” to the short-side thinking, and large accounts are still quite accurate in controlling the rhythm of the short-term market.

In terms of retail positions, long positions fell from 2,286 to 2,237, while short positions rose slightly from 868 to 876. Retail investors rather unexpectedly took a clear net air-conditioned position with limited market price volatility, making a fairly correct judgment when large institutions failed to accurately predict a pullback at the end of the latest statistical cycle, which can be considered the biggest surprise in the latest weekly report.

CME Ether Futures
Although ETH also saw a sharp pullback on the first trading day after the end of the latest statistical cycle, the market performance of ETH was significantly better than that of BTC during the statistical cycle, with the price hitting a new all-time high during this period. It can be argued that ETH’s market performance was more “confusing” before the rapid pullback at the end of the latest statistical period, and it is crucial that some type of account anticipates a potential pullback in the midst of the strong market performance.

The number of total positions (total open positions) has dropped from 2416 to 2157 in the latest data, which is two weeks in a row, and with the market continuing to rise, it can be assumed that the market has already smelled the risk in advance and is not blindly optimistic.

In terms of sub-data, the largest dealer position remained unchanged at 0 long positions, short positions rose from 0 to 42, and long-short (hedged) positions remained unchanged at 0 in both directions. The dealer account added short positions against the trend when the price hit a new record high, accurately anticipating the pullback at the end of the statistical cycle and being more accurate than BTC in judging ETH.

The long positions held by CRAs fell from 66 to 0, short positions rose from 0 to 70, and two-way positions rose from 0 to 10. CRAs have taken a clearer net position in the latest statistical cycle, with both large institutional accounts showing a fairly ‘calm’ attitude in a highly heated market.

Leveraged fund accounts rebounded from 950 long positions to 1,023 in the latest cycle, while short positions rose from 1,858 to 2,089 in parallel, with positions in both directions rising from 74 to 106. Leveraged funds made a concentrated position increase in the latest statistical cycle, in contrast to the significant position reduction in the previous statistical cycle. Although the net short position position did not change, the long position share increased after the position transfer in the latest statistical cycle. It can be assumed that such accounts were still “influenced” by the price increase and did not make too much preparation for the potential pullback risk.

In terms of large positions, long positions rose from 311 to 405, short positions fell from 69 to 44, and two-way positions rose slightly from 18 to 19. This type of account has been firmly long during the rapid rise in ETH prices, which means that they will inevitably suffer more losses during the rapid pullback at the end of the latest statistical period.

In terms of retail positions, long positions rose from 997 to 1180, a record high, while short positions rose from 397 to 463, also a record high. Retail investors have increased their positions significantly in the latest statistical cycle, implying that the rapid rise in ETH prices has attracted a large amount of retail money, which is also a sign of retail sentiment.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/large-institutions-accurately-foresee-eth-pullback-retailers-become-winners-in-btc-crash/
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