Jiao Juan: The Metaverse market is expected to fully open in 2023-2024

Editor’s note: Starting from 2021, concepts related to the Metaverse have been favored by the capital market, and a large number of companies have deployed in the Metaverse market. The concept of the Metaverse has been endowed with enormous energy and has become a phenomenon-level communication, attracting extensive attention and participation from academia, media, industry, investment, and governments at all levels.

In the face of the hypothesis that “everything is possible in the Metaverse”, in order to promote the society to reach a consensus on the Metaverse, promote the co-creation of the Metaverse, and promote the ecological construction of the Metaverse, the China Science and Technology Journalism Society decided to prepare for the establishment of the Metaverse Science and Technology Communication Professional Committee, and cooperate with “China”. Science and Technology Information magazine jointly launched “Cognition and Approach: Interviews with 100 People in the Metaverse” , in order to draw a multi-dimensional and multi-perspective portrait of the Metaverse, so as to help readers make an objective and rational judgment on the current situation, trend and future of the Metaverse development. .

The Metaverse is a large virtual collection that will eventually include (encompass) the physical world that people currently live in; its enormous incremental value is digitized visual and auditory sensory experiences beyond. The end of the Metaverse lies in the realization of human-machine collaboration, which means that items in the virtual world will have an impact on people in the real world. For example, a certain economic system connects virtual and real time and space.

Conforming to the connotation of technological development will not become a bubble

At the core of technological development, there must be progress and contributions. At present, the development of the mobile Internet has reached its peak, and many aspects such as the country, society, industry, and personal experience need a new computing platform with technological progress and contribution. Therefore, the Metaverse is extremely popular on a global scale. It wants to digitize human senses of touch, smell, taste and other sensory experiences. It is a real great contribution, progress, and new exploration. As long as it is advanced in this direction, it will not be a bubble that will be burst soon.

This year, the Metaverse may enter a period of divergence. The divergence exists in the outside world’s views on the Metaverse. It is a normal phenomenon that occurs at a certain stage of development. In the medium and long term, the Metaverse, as a new computing platform, is a deterministic direction. The divergence period will eventually come to an end, and the boom will usher in a period of uptrend. We believe that the real Metaverse wholeness market will not start until the second half of 2023 or 2024. 

The Metaverse world is an exciting future

The Metaverse world can not only restore the identity, social relationship, living environment, etc. in the real world one by one, but also create, reshape, integrate and transcend on this basis. This is an exciting future.

Among them, the most exciting part of the Metaverse is that its operating mechanism will fully release people’s creativity. This release has a very benign positive feedback mechanism. For example, my grandfather likes various musical instruments, but he can only open A Douyin account entertains himself, his emotional projection when he plays various musical instruments, there is no other positive feedback except Yueji, but in the Metaverse, as long as anyone appreciates any of his creations, he can immediately find a price (with some kind of currency) and can be traded at any time.

The most awe-inspiring thing about the Metaverse is that it will become a holographic society in the future. Everyone’s current “credit” will be deepened into an evaluation of “virtuous behavior”, and everyone must correct their own values ​​in advance.

Metaverse “Universal Hardware Entry” requires a preparation period of one or two years

In the research framework and cognitive system of “Metaverse Investment” and “New Hardware Doctrine”, China’s long board/advantage lies in “content, application, scenario; collaborative monetization party”. In the era of mobile Internet, China is best at toC business, that is, the development of new content, new applications, and new scenarios based on the new computing platform, as well as the monetization capabilities based on the above three aspects.

It can be said that the biggest variable in the current development of the Metaverse is when the universal hardware entrance will appear. Another point is the law that supply determines demand. This law is the situation in the second half of the mobile Internet, and will also be A universal law in the Metaverse. Therefore, the current shortcoming/disadvantage of developing the Metaverse lies in “chips, underlying architecture”, and in the direction of hard technology, a breakthrough from 0 to 1 is required.

In the future, the hardware, software, content, and applications of the entire Metaverse will all be reconstructed.Therefore, the reason why the Metaverse market will be launched in 2023 and 2024 is that according to the current hardware and content, the underlying architecture needs to be greatly improved, and generally speaking, a preparation period of one or two years is required.

Jiao Juan, Dean of Anxin Metaverse Research Institute, Chief Analyst of Anxin Media Internet, presided over the writing of “2022 Metaverse Global Annual Report: Accumulating Power” (in cooperation with Peking University), author of “Metaverse Investment”, “New Hardwareism.Research direction: Metaverse hardware, Metaverse research and investment framework, Metaverse content/application/scenario.

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