Recently DeepGo development work is quite busy, also not much attention to the market, today by a wave of friends consulting, here is a unified response. As a quantitative researcher, I entered the cryptocurrency industry in April 2017, traversing many bulls and bears, sharing the personal experience of some old leeks, for reference only, and does not constitute any advice.
Is this round of bitcoin bull market over? The answer is obviously no. It’s hard to buy a bull back, and a bull back is not such a direct plunge into a bear. A bear market is a long period of consolidation, a negative fall and then a plunge, and finally most people clear out of the market. From the market side, the most is now due to the concentration of negative news, so the big pullback, after all, bitcoin has lasted a year up more than 10 times.
The plunge is good, the negative fall is terrible. The market is more rational after the plunge to leverage, the funds will really return to the mainstream value, only cats and dogs do not occupy the road, the big pie is likely to really innovate high. If it is a negative fall, it means that the market capital is continuing to flow out, the growth engine is failing, before the bear market is coming.
Policy short is not terrible, because the policy short out that is good, after the boots fall, dead pigs are not afraid of boiling water. The cryptocurrency industry has experienced 94 after more thriving, the current pullback in the eyes of the old leek are not much, most people can only accept bitcoin a year up ten times, but can not accept a week down 30%. 2019’s 312 coin disaster a week down 70%, but after deleveraging is a sustained bull market, from then on there is no more $ 4,000 bitcoin.
Market short-term rise and fall can not be predicted, we can grasp only the big cycle. Even if the machine learning algorithm is more powerful, it can’t have a high winning rate to predict the future, but rooted in the industry, long-term holdings of core quality assets, the spring river is warm, the duck prophet, rich is only a matter of time, do not care about a place of gain or loss, but must seek a long-term victory.
Some time ago, I had dinner with Mr. Lin of DDX, I said this time is different, Mr. Lin asked me “what is different this time”, the answer is that although DeFi has the same bubble as 2017, DeFi is more verifiable than the growth of 1CO, users really vote with their feet to get quality assets, not in 2017 by big brother The answer is that DeFi is more verifiable than 1CO. It is the verifiable mechanism that has led to so many landed applications. As the infrastructure improves, the growth engine of this bull market will be more sustainable.
With DeFi’s backward compatibility, DAO’s adaptive, NFT’s traffic out of the loop, and more and more smart developers joining the industry instead of more and more smart financial brokers joining in 2018, this time is more grounded than the last bull market. The traffic-boosting junk coins will exit in a few days, and quality assets will still be bought in large numbers by rational people, which is the new evolution of the blockchain industry.
Bitcoin’s long-term value is related to the Fed’s expanded monetary policy, the fallout from the epidemic remains problematic, the world remains heavily deflated, and Bitcoin still has continued upward momentum. The bitcoin market may fluctuate for the first time because of a certain scum, but after that it will be desensitized and the market will be more decentralized from then on and will not be made or broken by the words of one person. It should be the middle to late stage of the bull market, after the market is deleveraged, calm down a few days will usher in a few waves of continuous rise.
Do not add leverage, do not shuttle all in, delayed gratification, capital preservation as the first priority. Long-term fixed investment in core quality assets, filtering worthless junk coins, and always hold some cash. Live on, run long than run fast is more important.
The Buddhist monk Yakusan Weiyan said, “The clouds are in the sky and the water is in the bottle”, meaning that objective facts do not deviate because of subjective emotions, and everyone has his or her own place. The crowd is unconscious, easy to follow the flow blindly, but if you become a qualified investor, it is necessary to transcend emotions, like the machine strategy so knowledge and action, scientific self-discipline, rigorous truth-seeking, the way of nature, such as.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/is-this-bitcoin-bull-market-over/
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