Is Axie Infinity sustainable?

  • The Axie economy currently relies on depositing ETH in the ecosystem driven by Axies demand
  • Current Axie demand may be mainly driven by new players
  • When the growth of new players slows for a long time, if players usually earn more ETH than they put into the game, then the economy will decline
  • To ensure sustainability, existing players need to generate more demand for Axies [or other in-game NFTs] for non-monetary value such as fun, achievements, mastery, and social connections.
  • The upcoming features should help bring additional non-monetary value to players, such as land games, production, and soul-bound axes.
  • There are many other feature ideas that can also bring non-monetary value to players, such as collection goals, cosmetics, and virtual pet gameplay.
  • Overall, long-term Axie [and other in-game NFT] demand poses a real risk to the sustainability of the game. However, Sky Mavis is ready to solve this problem and has the ability to do it.

The blockchain- based game Axie Infinity recently took off with explosive growth in game revenue:

Is Axie Infinity sustainable?

Source: Axie World

With this, more and more people are also aware of this new “game earning” game mode, where players can earn real money by playing games. The general response to this is…who is funding it and how is it sustainable? To understand this, let us first explore how the overall economy works.

Axis Economy

This is a visual representation of the Axie economy:

Is Axie Infinity sustainable?

The main funds flowing into the Axie ecosystem come from external ETH accounts. Ultimately, Axie Infinity needs to keep the inflow of ETH deposits higher than the withdrawal of ETH so that people in the ecosystem can continue to make money sustainably.

The demand for ETH deposits is driven by motivation to buy Axies to Battle (where SLP can be obtained), Breed (where SLP is burned), and/or collection.

Here are some scenarios about how the current economy is transforming:

Increased demand for Axies

Axie price rise> increase in profitability of aquaculture> increase in demand for SLP/AXS aquaculture> increase in price of SLP/AXS

Too many SLPs obtained in battle

SLP inflation> SLP price decrease> breeding costs decrease> more breeding> Axie inflation> Axie price decreases until breeding becomes less profitable

This is how everything works-so the question now is, can the demand for Axies continue over time so that those external ETH deposits that enter the ecosystem can then be maintained?

Sustainability

Axie demand risk

According to the economics outlined, the entire system is currently driven by Axies demand. This is where I need to make some educated guesses, because I don’t have data from Sky Mavis or any appropriate player research available. The following are some assumptions based on my observations:

  • Although there are certainly many core and early players who bought Axies purely for PvP and collection, with the recent explosive growth in popularity and the argument of “playing to make money”, there may now be more players purely for making money and making money. If it is not for the potential to make money, you will not get Axies and play.
  • PvP players have a complex metadata, but there are only so many Axies combinations that they actually need. At some point, they may stop or slow down spending newly deposited ETH on Axies.
  • Therefore, most of the Axie demand and net new deposits of ETH in the current Axie ecosystem are likely to be driven by new players.

Sky Mavis also mentioned many times that the growth of new players is important for maintaining new products like Axie Infinity.

Therefore, there must be a risk that if the growth of new game players slows down, the demand for Axies will decline, and the overall market may fall into a downward spiral. Axie demand decline> breeding profitability decline> SLP/AXS demand decline> SLP/AXS value decline.

No one knows when the growth of new players will slow down, but given that Axie Infinity is relatively early in gaining any mainstream recognition, there may be a reasonable runway. However, Sky Mavis does need to solve this problem before reaching a stable growth point.

They have told us and have been talking very bluntly about how they solve this problem here: Axie Population & Long-term Sustainability. I will talk about some of these tactical points later, but first let us understand how, instead of mainly coming from new players’ demand for Axie, they can drive existing players’ intrinsic demand for Axie.

Internal demand for Axies [or other NFT]

Ultimately, Sky Mavis needs to ensure that over time, those who essentially want Axies [or other in-game NFT] to fight/collect/progress in the game have enough demand for Axies, not just to make money. If most players just want to earn and withdraw more ETH than they have deposited into the game, and if there are not enough new players in the end, then there will not be enough ETH left in the economy to make everyone show positive One side.

Is it possible to promote more inner desire for Axies? Of course, AXS is a game above all. The entire history of the game has passed to the present . They have gained intrinsic value from traditional game competitions. They actively pay and get any, monetary rewards, and do simple and interesting things to gain value in the form of combination. Social achievement. Many early players may have mastered the resources and achievements in this group. More importantly, if the core cannot sustain the economy independently, then a large number of purely paid players may need to switch.

Sky Mavis must ensure that Axie Infinity is a truly interesting game, and people want to get Axies [or other in-game NFT] to play, regardless of the income potential. According to my personal experience, once you dive into the metadata of PvP combat, the current game itself is very interesting, but due to the higher cost of some meta-related Axies, it is difficult for me to pass the improvement cycle. For many players, they may find that pure PvP games are not enough to meet their needs. These are just a few aspects that can be addressed to increase the fun factor.

Increase internal demand

“Make games more fun” Let people play games for fun, not for money. However, as I mentioned earlier, Sky Mavis outlines a series of approaches they hope to address here: Axie population and long-term sustainability. These include not only ways to increase the overall value of the game, but also increase the demand for Axie from players who have obtained non-monetary value from the game (such as competitive PvP players). Let’s explore some of the mechanisms outlined in Sky Mavis’ white paper:

  • Land will introduce important new game mechanics from which players can obtain more intrinsic game value, thereby driving more demand for Axie. In addition, Land itself will also have demand, which will push new ETH into the ecosystem. Players will be able to have more ownership of specific spaces in the game, regardless of the monetary gains [think Animal Crossing! ]. The overall concept of hanging out in Lunacia with friends, fighting monsters together, and participating in various activities sounds very exciting in itself. This brings a very popular and interesting MMORPG style game!
  • Making Axie boosters and Axie releases may drive Axie’s massive demand for hardcore PvP players who are mainly motivated by competition, as they may need to release Axie to make items that can enhance other Axies. This creates an Axie receiver that does not currently exist.
  • The non-transferable and competitive soul-bound axis in the arena will change the rules of the game, allowing players to simply play and enjoy the game without having to invest a lot of money in advance. This will help them invest in the core PvP game loop so that when they decide to invest in non-soul-bound reels, they are more likely to do so without a purely motivated motivation to make money, but more to compete with others. And gain mastery.

Sky Mavis can also explore many other areas, including:

  • Collection goals: Like many other types of games (such as Pokémon), collecting different unique creatures is inherently exciting and fun. There are rare and absolutely collectible mystery axes, but they are very expensive and not easy to obtain. Sky Mavis can build gameplay, in which you have clear collection goals and guidance on which good Axies to collect. You can show off the unique and rare Axies you have collected to others, and you can also unlock various in-game benefits. This type of gameplay is motivating and exciting for collectors and completion gamers.
  • Cosmetics: Some of the biggest games profit entirely from cosmetics [e.g. Fortnite, League of Legends]. Players hope to show off and express their unique identity in the game. If players can add cosmetics that other players will see in land and PvP games in their Axies, they will definitely be very motivated to get them. Cosmetics are NFTs that players can buy, trade, or earn. The great thing about it is that many players want to get them to keep and wear their Axies for a long time to show off, not necessarily for financial gain.
  • Virtual pets: Neopets, tamagotchis and many other virtual pet games have proven to be popular among more casual gamers. This is another area where Sky Mavis can further expand Axie. By creating more gameplay, players can cultivate and build relationships with various Axies. If a real emotional bond is formed, players will be reluctant to release Axie, and there is an inherent need to use it as a pet rather than as a tool for making money.

In the future, I believe that Sky Mavis will further open up their API, allowing others to develop games and experiences in the meta-universe with Axie Infinity, which will encourage players to use their Axies in different ways!

Conclusion

As a new and innovative game, Axie Infinity is not without challenges. If the growth of players stagnates, its sustainability is definitely at risk. However, the Sky Mavis team understands these risks well and is actively responding to them in a smart way. In addition, I don’t think the player base growth will reach a stable level anytime soon, because it is far from the mainstream notoriety. However, there may be fluctuations over time, so for anyone investing in games, this is definitely something to be aware of. Overall-I am very happy to see the development of the game in the next few years and the progress as an Axie Infinity player.

 

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/is-axie-infinity-sustainable/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

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