In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

Recently, Twitter KOL PlanB exemplified several indicator models that are commonly used to assist decision-making in addition to the well-known S2F. In view of the current volatile market trend and the bottom-hunting sentiment after the plunge, we will introduce these indicator models for reference. required for use.

Interestingly, Vitalik just issued a critique of S2F. The S2F model does not look good right now, he said. I know gloating and stuff like that is rude, but I think it’s harmful that financial models give people a false certainty and a sense that predetermined numbers will increase, and they deserve all the ridicule. PlanB has just stated that the S2F model is working well from March 2019 to March 2022. According to the S2F model, either BTC is currently extremely undervalued and rebounds quickly, or S2F becomes less useful in the future.

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model (S2F)

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

The S2F model was originally a method used to measure the scarcity of commodities such as gold and silver. It mainly considers two variables, the existing supply (Stock) and the annual output of the asset (Flow). Because the total amount and output of Bitcoin are clearly recorded on the blockchain, it makes sense to apply S2F to Bitcoin.

PlanB, on the other hand, compares the Bitcoin S2F model to price and uses a power law to perform a linear regression to potentially predict its future value change.

However, there are some unreasonable aspects of this model, such as only considering scarcity, ignoring market demand, and some logical problems.

At present, this indicator has experienced a serious deviation and failure. After all, according to the trend of the model, the current Bitcoin will reach 100,000 US dollars, and even exceed 10 million US dollars in 10 years.

Cost pricing method (Bitcoin miner machine price)

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

The cost-based pricing method is the most intuitive cryptocurrency valuation method. Its core idea is to regard the production cost of cryptocurrency (such as the mining cost of Bitcoin) as a lower limit indicator of cryptocurrency value. Therefore, taking Bitcoin as an example, perhaps its shutdown currency price range can be used as the bottom price range for investors to refer to. Like the current bitcoin price, it has fallen to the shutdown price of some miners.

Realized Cap and related evolution metrics

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

The calculation method of Realized Cap is: the market value is estimated based on the price of all Bitcoins at the last move, which can be understood as the average cost of holding coins for all coin holders.

Therefore, we can assess the valuation of the current Bitcoin price by comparing the current market capitalization of Bitcoin with the realized market capitalization. At present, many on-chain indicator models are also optimized based on the realized market value, making the so-called top-bottom interval easier to observe. Similar indicators include MVRV Z-Score and so on.

According to the current Bitcoin price, the current Bitcoin market capitalization is close to the realized market capitalization.

Relative Strength Indicator RSI

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

The relative strength index RSI is an indicator of the inherent relative strength of the currency price itself. It can display the oversold and overbought conditions of the market, measure the magnitude of price changes in a certain period, and the expected price trend of falling or rising, etc., but RSI It can only be used as a predictable indicator signal, which does not mean that the market trend will inevitably develop in this direction.

Moving Average MA

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

The moving average refers to the arithmetic moving average within a certain trading time. The moving average is formed by connecting the points calculated every day. The 5-day moving average is the weighted average of the closing prices for 5 trading days. According to the length of time moving averages can be divided into short-term moving averages, medium-term moving averages and long-term moving averages.

Philip Swift, for example, has derived a two-year MA multiplier indicator based on the MA indicator designed to be used as a long-term investment tool, which highlights when buying and selling Bitcoin can yield great returns.

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

It is worth mentioning that Chris Burniske, a partner of the investment institution placeholder, once said that the 200-week K-line MA of BTC & ETH is regarded as an important support, and it is expected that it may fall below this support level. With the recent plunge, BTC & ETH have come to this support level.

Basis

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

Basis is the difference between the spot price and the futures price of a particular commodity at a particular time and place. By measuring the spread between the futures market and the regular spot market, traders can gauge how bullish the market is.

  • Whenever bulls are overly optimistic, quarterly futures contracts will trade at an annualized premium (basis) of 10% or more.
  • Conversely, bearish sentiment tends to cause quarterly futures contracts to trade at an annualized premium of 5% or less.

options

In addition to the attacked S2F PlanB, what other common analysis models are there?

The picture above shows the options open interest of Bitcoin at each strike price (source: https://www.coinoptionstrack.com/). By looking at the Bitcoin put and call option open interest at a certain time in the future and at each price, you can A general understanding of the future direction of the market is generally understood.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/in-addition-to-the-attacked-s2f-planb-what-other-common-analysis-models-are-there/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

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