Just like in a bull market, the decline in a bear market is also quite different.
original title and link: “Numba Go Up… 1.5 Years Later”
Early last year, we wrote 20 “Numba Go Up” charts highlighting high returns in January 2021. As it turns out, this is the beginning of a big bull market. The current bear market has been going on for several months, and it’s time to revisit these charts and see what they look like now.
We analyzed the prices of the top 100 Ethereum tokens in more than 20 categories based on market capitalization. The analysis is based on January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2022.
Key observations include the following:
– Emergence of Meme, Fan Participation and NFT-related Tokens
– Challenges beyond ETH
First, let’s look at the overall data. Taking January 1, 2022 as a base point, we see that only the new IOT category has positive returns. It actually has only one token, MXC, with a 63% return.
The bridge category returned -28%, but it was mostly supported by TITAN (71%), while SYN (-74%) and REN (-80%) underperformed. CEX (-39%), AMM (-45%) and DEX (-50%) managed to stay above -50%, while all other categories ranged between -60% and -85%.
While the chart above is useful, it doesn’t tell us much new information given the current bear market. Using January 1, 2021 as a base point, we can compare today’s gains with those shared in the previous article.
This chart gives some numbers. Two of the top 5 categories are Meme and DEX, which are heavily skewed towards SHIB (13 million%!). The other 3 categories, namely – Fan Engagement, NFTs, Games – still generate returns of over 1,000%.
The returns were so large that we had to filter them out before showing a logarithmic graph.
Almost all categories are still delivering positive returns two months after entering a bear market.
The 4 categories with negative returns are Lending, Oracle, API and Yearn Family.
Emergence of new categories
3 of the top 5 categories — Meme, Fan Engagement, and NFTs — were not even present in the top 75 tokens analyzed previously. Their presence suggests that these categories are a major part of this bull market.
By far the most impressive is SHIB. It has come a long way from being seen as a knock-off version of Dogecoin to developing its own suite of products such as the ShibaSwap DEX. Its price chart eclipses every other coin to the point that we need to exclude it to see other coins.
While not having the extreme returns that SHIB offers, both ELON (566%) and PEOPLE (470%) performed surprisingly well, offering 10x higher returns than ETH. Although none of them seem to have a use case.
Fan engagement tokens have a similar graph to Meme. CEEK also outperformed other tokens with a 10,000% return. Unlike the Meme token, all 3 tokens were launched ahead of the 2021 bull run.
Zooming in to CHZ (336%) and AUDIO (151%), both also outperformed ETH.
Unsurprisingly, NFTs are the top category. 4 NFT-related tokens (OMI, GALA, AXS, MANA) significantly outperformed other tokens with 1,000+% returns. By the way, these 4 all belong to the category of gaming tokens, which outperformed other categories of NFTs.
Projects that underperformed ETH and had negative returns were launched after January 2021. Timing matters, at least for NFT projects.
Challenges beyond ETH
One common thread among token investors is whether tokens that only hold ETH would perform better. Let’s see how the different categories match up next.
For side chains, MATIC (2,630%) and FTM (1,463%) stand out. Benefiting from the EVM L1, their returns have held up well even after pulling back from their highs at the start of the year. Most coins in this category outperformed ETH, with only OMG (-25%) and SKL (-35%) underperforming ETH.
CEX tokens on Ethereum are also doing well. All coins in this category have positive returns. But beware, VGX was also in this category before but fell out of the top 100 because of their issues with Luna and the 3AC state of affairs.
DEXs do not perform as well as CEXs. Except for SHIB and TITAN (627%), all other tokens underperformed ETH. Half of them have a negative return on investment.
Exclude SHIB as an outlier in the graph
Derivatives-related tokens show a similar pattern. With the exception of FTT (331%), all other coins showed poor negative returns. DYDX’s -89% return may be one of the reasons why they turned to creating their own blockchain.
When it comes to lending, MKR (57%) is an exception, with higher returns than ETH. While other projects were not so lucky, CEL also faced the same bad Luna problem as VGX.
An interesting category mentioned in the previous article is Yearn Family. From their seemingly unassailable positions in DeFi in early 2021, these projects have struggled, and all of their tokens have offered dire returns since then.
An interesting group of coins is breaking away from the market’s downtrend. In fact, with the exception of KNC, all other projects entered July with the wind. It will be interesting to see how they perform during a bear market!
While looking at prices can be a fun and even useful activity, before looking at any coin, remember to understand the underlying project and other important metrics like market cap and fully diluted valuation. But remember, these are not financial advice!
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/how-did-the-darling-in-last-years-bull-market-perform-in-this-years-bear-market-16-charts-tell-you/
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