In the previous article “Blockchain is a high-risk risk-free industry”, we said that the blockchain industry, mainstream mining is a high-risk risk-free industry.
The focus is on the result is risk-free, as long as you can afford to wait. This is to defy the difficulties strategically. But to tactically value the difficulties.
This requires us to understand more details of the truth, as well as to distill the specific laws. When the news related to this digging kuang came out, there were various analyses. Some people think that the situation is serious, never such a high level of LD to focus on this matter, and the level of concern this time is also very high, reaching the Golden Stability Committee, which is more than the previous central mom lead to be much stronger.
Some people think that this is just a normal financial work conference, is to prevent the overall financial risk, said to bitcoin, has been the Nth paragraph, in fact, is better than nothing, not to mention the previous policy short is to have several ministries joint law enforcement, which landed the strength, this time on the crackdown, the equivalent of nothing to say.
Some people think that the specific will not be implemented to control, after all, the southwest and northwest of the power is not used is also a waste, just recently fried animal coins too out of the circle, and a lot of people who lost money, these gamblers make money to count themselves, lose money to find the authorities to settle accounts, is considered an early prevention, warning under it.
There are also people who believe that this time really to move the real deal, many large mining farms have received shutdown notices, and OTC trading has really become more difficult, many exchanges shut down or ceased operations, and many investors using CITIC Bank has received the funds screening SMS.
Before the shoes of the policy are not fully landed, you can only guess based on the flurry of information, but also can not completely sit on the sidelines, otherwise, either the policy short in case it comes out, only waiting in line to be shot, fleeing for their lives; or the policy is fully implemented, the next rally and bottoming out, we have not grasped.
A review of history may help us make sense of the current situation.
Let’s list a few historical mining crashes and then focus on the subsequent trends and prevention strategies. The most direct manifestation of a mining disaster is a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin, which can be caused by the collapse of the profitability bubble, leek-cutting by bankers or policy shortcomings that interfere with the mining kuang industry. The mining disaster occurred because the price drop led to the mining kuang not being able to make ends meet, and many miners chose to flee the kuang mining industry.
The first mining disaster.
The earliest bitcoin mining disaster dates back to April 2013. At the time, bitcoin plummeted from $233 to $67 in just 12 hours, a drop of 71%. The cause of the crash was related to hacking and problems with Mt. Gox itself.
Second Mining Disaster.
After this historic mining disaster, bitcoin hovered around $120 for several months until November saw another wave of gains, soaring to $1,150. But in mid-December, a second violent drop came unannounced due to warnings from our central bank about the risks of bitcoin trading, and within half a month’s time, bitcoin saw a direct cut.
Third Mining Disaster.
The cause of the third major mining disaster was also related to Mt. Gox. As the world’s number one bitcoin trading platform, which once accounted for 80% of the world’s total transactions, Mt. Gox was in constant trouble in 2014, and its eventual bankruptcy caused bitcoin to plummet further from $867 to $439 in the first quarter of 2014. Many believe that the bull market of 2013-14 could have lasted longer if it hadn’t been for Mt. Gox’s troubles.
Fourth Mining Disaster.
The fourth plunge of any magnitude occurred in 2017. After four years of thickening, bitcoin surged above $3,000, but suffered another 36% pullback in mid-July, falling to $1,869 at one point.
Fifth mining disaster.
This mining disaster was clearly a case of a full-blown crackdown on ICOs and bitcoin. As it approached the 5,000 mark, Bitcoin was affected by the China factor, sinking 37% in less than a month and evaporating over $30 billion in market cap.
Sixth mining disaster.
This happened at the end of 2017 and announced the end of the bull market. After the ICO, exchanges went to sea and BTC reached its then all-time high of $20,000 by December, but soon the Chicago Board of Trade went online with BTC futures, puncturing the bull market bubble and nearly decimating the market cap in just a few days, while the cottage coin fell by 80% of its market cap. At that time, the P106, Nvidia’s 1060, 1070, 1080, and AMD’s 470, 480, 570, 580, which were still frame-type miners at the time, are now classified as slag-level cards, which at that time could have a more tenacious life than high-performance chip miners, when only the first miner futures had not yet arrived, and already lost half of them, because the price at the time slipped rapidly because of the market. This is also the first time, because there are several mining companies in mass production in the country, the capacity is sufficient, and suddenly the market demand is not enough, resulting in a plunge in the price of mining machines.
Seventh mining disaster.
This time it was the fork mining disaster, which occurred on November 15, 2018. Originally, since the end of the bull market in 2017, the market has been bear for almost a year, but many people are still eager for the bull market to come back quickly, and at this time, Satoshi Auburn, with the support of capital, is ready to fork Wu Jihan’s BCH, and the time is set in the early morning of November 15, 2018. Originally thought that the flow of this dispute will once again attract the attention of large funds, who thought that because Wu Jihan and Auburn Satoshi are shorting each other, the success of the fork led to a plunge in the price of the coin, which in turn affected the entire market, a week’s time BTC and ETH market fell by 50% of the price, and then, a large number of miners, a year ago the price of up to 20,000 a mining machine, second-hand transfer price of only more than 1,000 yuan, and even by people according to the scrap iron The price of the pound to sell.
Eighth mining disaster.
Occurred in early 2020, only this mining disaster had little impact, because with the arrival of 312, soon the current round of bull market opened.
Summing up the above several big mining disasters, we found the following laws.
1) The mining disaster will always come, because the bubble of soaring, will always make the profit-takers satisfied after the flight, no new funds to take over, just a fuse to pierce, or a country that you speculate in coin mining kuang is too arrogant, the tree is big, so the mining disaster will be late, but not absent.
2) Although the fuse of the mining disaster is from the capital market short, or policy control, will bring the mining disaster, but the results may be essentially different. Short capital, that is, running out of takeover capital, can cause a sustained mining disaster, or even a bear market, but policy controls have never created a sustained mining disaster. Because the former is the world’s market behavior, the latter is a regional policy behavior. Market economy, or the power of the market, and the regional policy behavior at most the transaction from the local expulsion, as long as other places comply with the law, business as usual, but only to let other areas of the people pick up the bargain. It is foreseeable that if vigorous consolidation takes place, then China loses its pricing power over global bitcoin after 94, and will next lose its monopoly over global computing power.
3) Whether the mining disaster is due to policy or a capital market shortfall, in a short period of time, the less determined, or those with broken capital flows tragically leave the market. And those who came through, and even in others left the field he copied the bottom of the master, and now has been full of money. The specific difference is that the policy led to the mining disaster, boil to the dawn of the cycle is relatively short, while the capital really go bear led to the mining disaster cycle is longer. v guest of a distant friend, the current round of bull market income of 7 million a day, mainly 94 and Christmas mining disaster are done bottom, and later the market situation is good, he resold the mining machine to earn the difference, the difference part of the price for life, and the other part continue to increase the code mining machine, never The company’s main business is to provide a wide range of products and services to its customers. A farmer’s kid, what bad thoughts can have, nothing but a mining fortune, never stop digging coins, because coins are worth money in the future, this is his firm belief.
4) Every mining disaster in the past, as long as the faith is firm and there is money in the hand, there is indeed an opportunity to make a fortune, and the plummeting price of mining machines will give people a lot of opportunities to bottom out. Just the past few mining disasters, the overall global economic environment is normal, production as usual, and there is no supply chain shortage of these two years, in this year’s computer parts shortage, chip graphics shortage is the real deal, not man-made. So if the current round of mining disaster happens, there should also be a price cut because of the plummeting price of coins, but the cut is limited, expected to be between 5%-10%, of course, if there is a massive smash, it’s a different story, so different from previous operations is that you can let the bullets fly for a while, waiting for a good time to plunge, this time to save money on the difference between the current price and the future plunge price, and you wait The V-player’s operation is to keep half of the bottom and use half to continue buying normally, which is not countable anyway, so it’s half and half.
5) The past mining disasters were mainly due to the plummeting price of coins which led to not enough to pay the electricity bill, so from the perspective of the cash and carry system, every day is a loss, simply do not dig. And this round if a mining crash happens, bitcoin price is going to fall below $7,500 and ethereum is going to fall below $248, as if the shutdown price is going to be hard to happen even at the bottom of a bear market. So there will never be a mining crash in the future, or rather, the mining crash will take a different form. It used to be that you couldn’t turn on the machine, but now it’s that you may not be allowed to dig domestically and you lose revenue, or it’s that your payback cycle is lengthened because the price of the coin has fallen. But if your investment cycle is 3-5 years, then there is no mining difficulty. But if you are waiting for the money to come back down to the pot, that also has a significant impact and you need to be prepared.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/history-of-mining-accidents-and-policy-review-the-next-trend-analysis-and-response-1-history-of-mining-accidents/
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