Has the inflection point of the hot financing market in the chain game sector reached?

market view

spot view

This week, BTC bottomed out as a whole. At the technical level, the market has similar characteristics to the late bear market trend in the past. It is judged that it is at the end of the weekly level adjustment, and it is more likely to rebound in the later period. This round of BTC correction is about 130 days, and it has pulled back about 50% from its all-time high, but it still outperformed 90% of altcoins. The macro rate hike was in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% to 0.50%. It is expected to raise interest rates six times in 2022, and will announce a plan to shrink its balance sheet as soon as May. The market has been worried that the bearish boots of interest rate hikes have landed, and there may be a situation where the bearish bears are out of the bulls to counterattack, and a 2-3-month window period for bulls will be formed before the shrinking of the balance sheet. Historically, the performance of U.S. stocks in the six months after the Fed raised interest rates was not bad, and they all rose more and fell less.

On-chain view

The MVRV-ZScore ratio is 1.1, close to the end of the bear market. MVRV-ZScore indicator: (nominal market capitalization – real market capitalization) / standard deviation of nominal market capitalization. When the ratio is greater than 4, the price is overvalued and the market is frenzied; when the ratio is less than 1, the price is undervalued and the market falls into the abyss, which is an effective tool for judging large cycles.

Long-term BTC holders are increasing their accumulation, and the number is 7.6 times that of BTC mined in the same period; the proportion of BTC with young coin age is now at its lowest point. Historically, this performance has often been associated with the end of a bear market. The profit ratio of on-chain trading volume is also near an all-time low, with 53% of all trading volume in losses. Over 55% of trading volume was in the red in the last stages of previous bear market cycles.

This week, the data on the chain tracked that, marked as SBF, the smart money addresses of Three Arrows Capital increased their positions by about 900 million and 100 million US dollars respectively.

Futures View

Market sentiment has been relatively healthy this week. The BTC perpetual funding rates of various exchanges are slightly negative, and the long-to-short ratio of OKX large accounts is still less than 1. The futures margin open interest ratio indicator has been declining since the high point in April 2021. The decline in this indicator indicates that leveraged traders are more cautious about their positions and risk exposures, and the futures contract market is healthier. The current inflection point of this indicator may be has arrived.

Before the interest rate hike this week, BFX was short, and longs were building a large number of positions. The giant whale showdown once attracted market attention. The bear whales made several profits in June last year, but this time they left the market with a small loss.

Market hotspots

Month

UST is the fastest growing stablecoin. The scale has increased 10 times in the past six months, and has increased by 30% in the past 30 days. The scale of US$15 billion ranks fourth. Benefiting from the increase in the penetration rate of UST, Luna has burned 20% as a whole, and the circulating supply is less than 100 million. Now the circulation is deflated by about 3% every week. Luna has launched more than 70 projects and will launch more than 80 projects this year, which is expected to continue to increase the demand for UST.

Metis

Metis is Ethereum’s L2, improved on the optimistic rollups technology. The main competitive advantage is to solve the problem of the long period of L2 withdrawal and return to L1; the concept of DAO verification is proposed, which has better scalability and security; combined with IPFS storage, it is expected to reduce transaction fees. Metis has a Chinese background, but is well marketed abroad. Metis is a bit like the early BSC, with more than 70 ecological projects waiting to be launched in the future, and TVL will soon enter the top three of L2.

Lido

ETH is expected to merge POS in June, about 9% are currently pledged, and the pledge income is 5-10%. ETH is expected to become a deflationary asset due to EIP1559, deflation by 2% per year. Lido is expected to benefit directly as a liquid staking solution. Recently, a16z led a new round of financing, and TVL rose 50% and performed strongly.

primary market data

The total lock-up volume of the public chain

This week, TVL increased by 13.22B, with an increase rate of 6.67%. With the rise in the market, there was a corresponding increase, and the rate was basically the same.

The proportion of TVL of each public chain

The proportion of ETH chain increased slightly this week, from 54.78% last week to 54.84%, and the proportion increased by 0.06%. The growth rate of Terra’s proportion slowed down and increased by 0.27%, which is far lower than the incremental level in the previous weeks, and may reach the proportion in the short term. Compared with the bottleneck, the changes of the other chains are small.

The lock-up volume of each chain protocol

ETH lock-up volume

BSC lock-up volume

Solana lock-up volume

Avalanche lock-up volume

Polygon lock-up volume

Fantom lock-up volume

Terra lockup volume

Summary of this week’s agreement

All protocols have rebounded this week. The protocol that still shows stable growth is Anchor. The Anchor protocol is a savings protocol on the Terra chain. By using the deposited stablecoin as a pledge asset, derivative tokens are generated, and derivatives are derived. It can be used for mortgage lending to release liquidity.

ETH Gas fee history

The current on-chain transfer fee is about 9.04, and Opensea’s transaction fee is about $9.91, which is basically the same as the same period last week, and the overall point continues to remain at the lowest point.，交易费用约为

NFT market data changes

NFT Index Market Cap

Overview of NFT Market Transactions

NFT “Smart Money” Purchase Sorting

This week, Yuga Labs, the parent company of Bored Ape Yacht Club, acquired CryptoPunks and Meebits, and then ApeCoinDAO issued APE tokens and issued a huge airdrop. The activity of the entire NFT trading market was driven, and the market value of the NFT index rose by more than 15% in a single week. NFTs led by the Ape series and Meebits have generated large transaction volumes in a short period of time, which has led to an increase in the floor prices of several NFT series.