The chaotic entropy of Robotaxi’s commercial development factors has increased, has autonomous driving evolve?
The development of autonomous driving has gone through rapid iterations of about five years, and has moved from technological innovation to the stage of commercialization. Because of policy support, the scope of testing has gradually expanded. Robotaxi, which is close to c-end users, will be launched on a large scale from 2020. Many people have tried this new species. For those in the industry, the commercialization benchmark of the road to autonomous driving depends on the progress of Robotaxi, which is also the consensus of the industry.
As Baidu Aopllo, Xiaoma Zhixing, Autox and other self-driving companies have moved on to Robotaxi, all kinds of accumulated road test data and offline commercial operation show that autonomous driving has come to a new stage and turning point.
The logic of car companies entering Robotaxi
In the past two years, car companies have entered the Robotaxi route one after another, which is a convenient choice.
“Tianshi”: The development of the entire autonomous driving industry has gone from the demo stage of the laboratory to the real life. The development of technology is relatively mature and the time for landing is just right;
“Location advantage”: policy guidance and support, for the construction of smart roads, real money subsidy policies, and support for the commercial operation of autonomous vehicles, the government will help car companies to iterate better and faster with a supportive attitude;
“Renhe”: The data, computing power, and algorithm models accumulated by the company over the years have been polished very maturely. It takes time to implement, test, and return blood to feed itself.
From the computer simulation laboratory to the final muscle show in real road conditions, the basic logic for everyone to choose the Robotaxi route is to use it as a touchstone. Autonomous driving has passed the stage of using demo to attract capital. If you want to tell a good story, you need to speak with strength. . The best way to attract capital is to show technical strength with real operating data. Capital has burned so much money, and we need to see the results of the burn. Enterprises have reached the moment when they need to show their technical strength and hematopoietic ability.
In addition, another reason for Robotaxi’s commercial operation is policy. The support and guidance of policies and regulations in major cities is undoubtedly one of the biggest boosters, whether it is the construction of “smart road” infrastructure in vehicle-road synergy. , It is still the subsidy support of real money, and the way that autonomous vehicles can be used on the road and commercialized operations without safety officers are actively beckoning to auto companies to shout “Come and play !”
During the advancement of the Robotaxi commercialization route, although the actual commercial operations of car companies are different, the overall logic is as described above. The Robotaxi commercialization route is a milestone for the entire autonomous driving industry. In the current state of operation, we will find that it is a scene of prosperity in full swing, but no matter how suitable the time of entry is and the logic of entry is sufficient, the actual situation of landing is still somewhat different from what we imagined. After all, commercialization involves many levels, involving costs, operating business models, technology, security, policies, etc. This complex entropy increase and chaos scene can also easily cause the butterfly effect. The perspective and development of each element are Deviations have a great impact on the development of the entire industry, and the journey of commercialization is also full of thorns.
The thorns of commercialization
In the context of trial operation, whether it is data or the fiery end posture of car companies, what is shown is a scene of prosperity, but behind the prosperity, only the car companies know the commercialization.
One of the thorns is the difficult balance between the demand for large-scale development and low cost. The large-scale development is not only good-looking data when showing capital, but more importantly, it can accumulate a lot of valuable experience and data in actual operations. The cost is affordable, and companies are still willing to scale development, but the biggest problem with scale development is the high cost.
According to estimates, the cost of refitting a test car in the industry is about 1 million yuan. If you add operation and maintenance costs and labor costs such as safety personnel, this number will only be higher. Capital and enterprises have a balance in their hearts, and the core needs of enterprises are to obtain more commercial value at the lowest possible cost. It is difficult to balance scale and cost, and it has become a curse in the hearts of car companies. The larger the scale, the higher the cost, and the smaller the scale, the operating data produced are not very convincing.
The second thorn is the pull of safety and policy behind the maturity of technology. The essence behind the maturity of technology is not only the realization of cool functions, the muscles of technical strength, but also the safety and reliability, whether it is the protection of life and property, or the car. The reputation of the enterprise, no one wants to be the rat shit that harms the autonomous driving industry, because the technology is immature and causes trouble while driving, which raises the policy cost and threshold of the industry.
Safety is the government’s most important concern. The implementation of the policy revolves around safety and there are certain restrictions. The distance and time of the actual open road sections are limited, and the number of people involved in contact is also relatively conservative. Regarding policies, local governments have different routes and standards for Robotaxi. Some places, such as Beijing, can support commercial operations without security personnel, and some places may only support road testing, and there is no follow-up support policy for commercial operations. Regarding security, the policy attitude is still relatively prudent. Once a security problem occurs, it may turn around and become a difficult roadblock. Restricting some laws and policies, no one can take advantage of this result.
The ecosystem of the third thorns autonomous driving platform, system integrator and vehicle manufacturer has not yet been fully established. The establishment of the Robotaxi technical system, the formulation and promotion of the standard agreement have not yet had a clue, and the call and promotion of the entire industry is needed to improve it. For example, whether it is autonomous driving travel services or the commercialization of Robotaxi, it is inseparable from the pilot road test area and the construction of smart equipment in specific enclosed areas such as highways. The cost is high, and it is difficult to rely on enterprises to build it. The power of the entire industry and the government to complete.
The fourth thorn is that the massive data collected by the platform is difficult to handle. The training of autonomous driving technology and algorithms needs to rely on a large number of test vehicles to collect data, whether it is a test vehicle actually running on the road or a vehicle in commercial operation, hundreds of billions of data Many of them are duplicate data. The cost of identifying the value of the data and the process of valuable data need to be optimized. The research and development cost is too high, and the cost of Robotaxi itself is superimposed, and the data is not beautiful.
For the online car-hailing platform, the massive amount of camera data from the on-board recorder is not the data of the high-precision camera for automatic driving. Whether the actual data in the on-board recorder can be connected with the data required for automatic driving, and the true utility of the data Whether there is value or not, there are two others. The so-called natural data advantage of the online car-hailing platform in the Robotaxi route is doubtful.
Robotaxi’s commercialization journey is not all smooth sailing. Whether it is policy, safety, or the establishment of the industry ecology, it takes time to polish. The law of development of things needs room for growth. No one grows up from a baby to an adult. Autopilot The development of technology has been iterative for at least ten years. If the actual road of commercialization is flat, it does not conform to the laws of Tao, the problems and policies encountered in the commercialization of the use of commercialization still need to be learned in many scenarios. innovation.
Anti-fragile- other commercial options besides Robotaxi route
The biggest challenge of Robotaxi’s route is its cost, which almost grasps the lifeblood of Robotaxi’s development. Whether it’s the expensive lidar vehicle itself, or the manpower and site operating capital in first- and second-tier cities, the cost of commercial operation per kilometer is not only fuel, but also money. The Robotaxi route is not a choice that you can keep going if you want to stick to it. For Baidu, Didi, and other star startups such as Wenyuan Zhixing and AutoX, which are rich in wealth and have hematopoietic capabilities, they will burn money. Future.
For other companies that rely on capital, they can’t afford to run with them, and need to consider other supporting business routes. In the anti-fragility book, this is also a smart choice to fight against a single path, expand business in multiple directions, and improve their anti-fragility capabilities. For some companies, the commercialization of the Robotaxi route that burns money will not come out in a short period of time, and companies need to explore other business developments. Many companies will also choose business lines such as unmanned minibuses and self-driving trucks for mass production of L4.
For example, Xiaoma Zhixing, although backed by a large capital tree, in terms of business considerations, in addition to Robotaxi’s route, there are also normalized automatic driving system business and automatic driving truck business lines. Xiaoma Zhixing’s autonomous driving technology is deeply integrated and cooperating with vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to create an autonomous driving solution that can be replicated and mass-produced. At this year’s World Artificial Intelligence Conference, Xiaoma Zhixing released a smart truck. It is reported that the Xiaoma smart card has been commercialized, and a total of 13,650 tons of freight transportation has been completed, with a commercial operating mileage of 37,466 kilometers.
Whether it is like AutoX focusing on the development of Robotaxi route or taking the parallel route of Pony Chi Hing’s multi-business, the development of autonomous driving has various paths, and it is good to go long-term. Although Robotaxi is away from large-scale operations, there is still a long way to go. , But the boots have already landed. It is better than running in a computer in the laboratory. The rest is to give time to polish a little bit. We can all experience the future of autonomous driving.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/from-technical-security-to-policy-constraints-robotaxis-commercialization-process/ Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.