Falling into doubt in life, who overturned the wine table?

A sad day in the liquor sector

Once, baijiu was YYDS. Today, fell to make you doubt life. 

There is a comment on the Internet: if children don’t make up classes, education stocks have fallen; if they don’t make up lessons, their eyes will be better, and the ophthalmology stocks will collapse; mothers don’t have to send their children to make up lessons, and mothers don’t have time for beauty care, and medical beauty has fallen; Dad didn’t have time to drink, the liquor fell… 

Falling into doubt in life, who overturned the wine table?

How can a word “miserable” be so

On July 26, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed down 2.34%, and the ChiNext Index closed down 2.84%. 

Among them, the liquor sector plummeted, and the China Securities Liquor Index fell 7.75% rarely. Individual stocks, Shuijingfang , alcoholic liquor limit, Shanxi Fen fell 9.80 percent, Yang shares fell 7.21%, down 8.39% …… willing to Wine “high-end Big Three”, the Guizhou Moutai fell 5.05 percent to 1804.11 yuan / share closing, Set a new low since 2021; Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao fell nearly 8%.

Falling into doubt in life, who overturned the wine table?

(WIND liquor concept plate) 

Why does the white wine suddenly stop fragrant? ! 

Prior to this, Shuijingfang issued a semi-annual report, which is also the first interim report of the A-share liquor industry in 2021. 

In the first half of 2021, Shuijingfang achieved operating income of 1.837 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.44%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 377 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 266.01%. 

Regarding the substantial growth in performance in the first half of the year, Shuijingfang explained that overall, with the gradual recovery of the market, and in the first half of last year, the company’s overall base for digesting inventories caused a low year-on-year base. Compared with the same period of the previous year, both achieved substantial growth. 

However, based on the data from the first quarter of 2021, revenue was 1.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 419 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.66%. But in the second quarter, Shuijingfang actually lost 42 million yuan. 

As for the second quarter that fell short of expectations, some analysts even said that “Shuijingfang fired the first shot of thunder.”

Shuijingfang said that since 2021, the domestic new crown epidemic has been effectively controlled, the gathering social consumption has gradually recovered, and the liquor industry has shown a clear trend of recovery. Since the second quarter, in order to promote the company’s high-end strategy, the company has increased its investment in high-end projects, and short-term profits have been affected to a certain extent. 

Falling into doubt in life, who overturned the wine table?

On July 13, Shanxi Fenjiu and Shede Liquor released their first-half performance forecasts one after another, and their performance rose sharply. The net profit of Shanxi Fenjiu’s parent company is expected to increase by 110%-130%, and the net profit of Shanxi Fenjiu’s parent company is expected to increase by 332.42%-356.78%. Affected by this, sub-high-end liquor continues to be sought after. 

However, Shuijingfang’s performance fell short of expectations, and the liquor sector plummeted, making investors doubt life again. 

Seeing the net value of the fund, I have no tears

Is white wine still fragrant? E Fund ’s “Bacchus” proved with practical actions: it doesn’t seem so fragrant anymore. 

In the second quarter, the stock positions of E Fund Blue Chip Selected Mixed, E Fund Small and Medium Cap Mixed, E Fund Asian Selected Stocks, and E Fund High-Quality Enterprise Mixed Funds with a three-year holding period under Zhang Kun’s management all declined to varying degrees. 

Among them, the proportion of E Fund’s small and medium-cap stock positions dropped by nearly 24 percentage points from the first quarter , plummeting to the lowest level of quarter-end stock positions since Zhang Kun managed the fund-70.36%; the proportion of E Fund’s blue chip selected stock positions increased from 93.61% E Fund’s high-quality companies dropped from 94.57% to 89.24%; E Fund’s Asian Selection dropped from 93.17% to 86.45%. 

In addition, Zhang Kun also adjusted the structure in the second quarter. E Fund has reduced the configuration of food and beverage industries and increased the configuration of computers and other industries.

In the second quarter, among the top ten heavyweight stocks, E Fund Blue Chip Select still holds 4 liquor stocks. However, Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai have been lightened, from 10.05% and 9.86% in the first quarter to 9.88% and 9.75% respectively; however, they have increased their positions on Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe shares, from 7.62% and 4.68% respectively. % Increased to 9.71% and 9.68%. 

Falling into doubt in life, who overturned the wine table?

During the same period, although the top ten heavy stocks of E Fund’s small and medium caps remained unchanged, they reduced their holdings in Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. Among them, Kweichow Moutai fell from 8.94% to 7.88%, and Wuliangye was greatly reduced. Wuliangye dropped from the second largest heavyweight stock in the first quarter of 2021 to the seventh largest heavyweight stock-E Fund’s small and mid-cap holdings in Wuliangye decreased from 10.8 million shares to 5.3 million shares, accounting for the fund’s net asset value from 9.20% Reduced to 5.50%. 

Even so, dragged down by liquor stocks, on July 26, E Fund’s blue-chip selected net worth was estimated to plummet by 4.83%, and E Fund’s mid- and small caps were estimated to fall by 3.36%. In addition, other heavy-duty liquor funds, such as the Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Hybrid managed by Liu Yanchun, are estimated to fall by 5.06%; the China Merchants China Securities Liquor Index Fund managed by Hou Hao is estimated to fall by 7.28%. 

For Xiaobai, who has just bought these funds recently, if he goes home from get off work at night and turns on his mobile phone, he may cry without tears. 

Zhang Kun said in the second quarterly report that in an environment where liquidity is abundant and capital is anxiously looking for high return rates, the competition in many industries in the next few years may be more intense than in the past five years. “Looking back on my previous judgments, I found that there were many mistakes. I think the difficulty of judging the competitive landscape of the industry in the next five years will only increase.”

“From a comprehensive point of view, if it is correct, it may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once it is wrong, it will face a lot of loss. With this odds distribution, it is obviously a difficult action for investment.” Zhang Kun Express. 

Excessive valuation, more worried about performance growth

Regarding today’s sharp drop in the liquor sector today, Kou Xing , chief analyst at West China Securities Food and Beverage , said to the market that the callback of the liquor sector has little to do with the industry’s prosperity and the fundamentals of various companies, mainly because the sector’s valuation remains high and the market It is believed that the growth rate of the interim report is difficult to exceed expectations, and there are concerns about the growth rate in the second half of the year.

After a round of surge, on February 10, 2021, the valuation of the liquor sector reached a ten-year high, 71.17 times. Since then, the liquor sector began to pull back and reached a low point on March 9. 

Driven by the second and third-tier liquors, the CSI Liquor Index reached a high point on June 7. From March 9 to June 7, the CSI Liquor Index rose by nearly 45%. However, after that, the callback began again. 

Falling into doubt in life, who overturned the wine table?

Market analysis believes that the sharp drop is only a continuation of the correction, and the flight of many profitable funds has accelerated the decline.

Liquor industry expert Cai Xuefei said that in the near future, semi-annual reports have been released one after another, but some of them fall short of expectations, and the market will pull back and wait and see; the epidemic has begun to repeat again, which may have a negative impact on alcohol consumption in the second half of the year; from the New Year to the present, liquor has been continuously adjusted , This round of decline is also a manifestation of panic or wait-and-see emotions. 

In addition, Liu Chang, chief analyst of Tianfeng Securities Food and Beverage, analyzed to the market circles: In addition to the market’s valuation of the liquor sector, including the continued question of growth, there are two points: First, the liquor consumption tax reform will be implemented sooner or later. , Only a lot more, this is definitely a “one-time injury” for liquor companies; second, it is also related to market capital behavior and liquidity.

In fact, the 28th-eighth differentiation of the liquor industry continues. 

Kou Xing stated to the market circles that the high-end market volume and price trend will remain unchanged; the sub-high-end market also has high growth potential, but the price increase has been frequent in the past two years, and the market has concerns about subsequent price increases. In addition, the off-season sales growth in the second quarter slowed down, and the possibility of exceeding expectations in the second half of the year was low, which increased the market’s concerns about the sub-high-end annual performance. 

In the medium and long term, the trend of brand concentration will become more and more obvious.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/falling-into-doubt-in-life-who-overturned-the-wine-table/
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