This article tells you how cool the avatar NFT is.
Since the beginning of this year, the fire of NFT has become more and more prosperous.
In the past few weeks, the popularity of the NFT market has risen to unprecedented heights, and the transaction volume of NFT platforms including Opensea has continued to hit new highs; major public chains, side chains/Layer 2 have also begun to enter the NFT track, and various types of NFT new Projects emerge in endlessly.
Regarding the discussion about the value of NFT, both positive and negative sides are constantly vocalizing: There are opinions that “consensus gives NFT value” and that CryptoPunks is the Bitcoin in the NFT field ; others believe that NFT is just a short-term hype, and the bubble will eventually burst…
In today’s article, we try to use data to tell you how long the life cycle of popular image NFT projects is, and on this basis, explore the success secrets of those long-lasting NFTs.
First Liang’s core conclusion:
- The transaction volume of the statistical project was completely cut in two to three days after the peak record; the average transaction volume and average number of buyers in the past week are equivalent to about 20% of the peak time.
- The counted items fell from the peak transaction volume to the average level, with an average time of 5.3 days, and the median was 4 days; 15 items fell from the peak number of buyers to the average level, with an average time of 6.5 days, and the median was 5.5 days.
- There are three ways to win a long-lasting project: one is the project’s own seniority; the other is different aesthetics and celebrity blessing; the third is to continuously upgrade the gameplay.
The research method of this article and the standard of sample selection
Common NFTs on the market can be roughly divided into display and collection categories (such as NFT artwork or automatic algorithm generation of avatars, etc.), game props (MANA, ZEST, REVV, etc., encrypted cats are barely counted), and financial products according to their functions. Category (such as Uniswap V3’s LP NFT), etc.; the display and collection categories can be roughly divided into image category (CryptoPunks), video category (NBA Top Shot) and audio category (Tencent Magic Core’s “Sound” Ten Three Invitations “Digital Art Collection NFT”).
In the past few weeks, image NFTs have been the hottest. Many people in the encryption circle have changed their social avatars into pictures of penguins, dogs , mummies, etc. This NFT MEME social culture is also called “JPEG culture”.
In this article, we will focus our research on the most popular image category (head portrait) NFT in the near future. In addition, it should be noted that there are two main reasons why NFTs involving game item attributes are not included:
- At present, there are only a handful of representative NFT projects in the game category, and the sample selection range is small, which provides low reference for the industry;
- Image NFTs have a single use scenario, lower production costs, and transaction conditions can better reflect market sentiment, which is prone to skyrocketing and falling; while game NFTs (Axie Infinity, Farmers World, Crypto Raiders Characters, The Wonderquest, Galaxy Fight Club, etc.) have certain Usage scenarios, the project itself follows the rules of the game industry and steadily develops and iterates, and short-term currency prices are relatively less affected by hype.
The data used in this article mainly comes from Cryptoslam and Opensea; the 15 projects finally selected are image NFT projects whose trading volume dropped by nearly or more than 50% in the past week and the highest trading volume was more than $10,000. The transaction volume, the number of users, the number of buyers, and the floor price of these projects are different, and the span is large, making the sample more universal.
Regarding the decrease in the popularity of the project, we use the “handover indicator” as the main criterion, including the comparison between the average transaction volume of the project in the past week and the peak transaction volume, how long it takes for the transaction volume to fall from the peak to the average; the average buyer and peak of the project in the past week Comparing the number of buyers, how long does it take for the number of buyers to fall from the peak to the average.
It should be noted that this article does not use “floor price” as the main reference standard for the popularity of the project. One of the reasons is that the floor prices and their changes between projects with different durations and total issuances are not comparable, and the span is large; the second reason is that the floor price data has a certain degree of unilateralism, that is, the project’s popularity increases, and the floor The price often rises, but when the popularity of the project drops or even no one cares about it, collectors may refuse to sell out of the mentality of reluctance to sell (not cutting meat), keeping the floor price at a relatively high level.
In addition to researching the rate of decline in the popularity of projects, we also counted the top 15 NFT avatars in history, trying to analyze the internal reasons for these projects to maintain popularity, and provide references for NFT issuers and operators.
The “hot” and “cold” of NFT
Whether you are an NFT avatar enthusiast, an NFT project developer, or a pure speculator, the following data may inspire you to help you run the project better, or make a profit in time.
(1) Popular NFT avatars turn cold
The data shows that 15 projects reached their trading peaks around mid-August (closely related to the trend of Bitcoin and the overall popularity of the NFT market). Although in the previous June and July, NFT was still hot despite the cold in the crypto market, the recovery of Bitcoin undoubtedly fueled the enthusiasm for NFT trading again.
However, starting from late August, the trading volume of the above 15 projects began to fall, and the trading volume was cut in two to three days after the peak record was set; the average trading volume in the past week is approximately equivalent to 20% of the peak trading volume. . In addition, the average number of buyers in the past week is equivalent to 20%-30% of peak buyers, and some items are purchased by only a few people a day. Most of the projects currently have less than 50 buyers a day, and NFT avatars have finally become a carnival for a few people.
Take My Fking Pickle as an example. On August 14, it set a peak trading volume of US$105,400, but the average trading volume in the past week was only US$2,000, which was almost zero. From the perspective of user volume, the total number of users of My Fking Pickle was 3000. , There were 81 peak buyers, and there were only 9 buyers on average in the past week, which is really bleak.
Of course, not all NFT project transactions are cold. Projects such as Incognito and Pudgy Penguins with broad users and stronger consensus still have about 150 buyers every day. The average transaction volume in the past week has also remained at nearly one million US dollars, but it is slightly bleak compared to its peak.
Putting these 15 projects together and analyzing them, the conclusions are as follows:
- Most of the projects fell to the average level from the peak trading volume and the number of buyers, basically within a week; Reb3l Bots, Purrnelopes Country Club, and CryptoZunks fell to the average level in about two weeks. More firm.
- 15 projects fell from the peak transaction volume to the average level, with an average time of 5.3 days, and the median was 4 days; 15 projects fell from the peak number of buyers to the average level, with an average time of 6.5 days, and the median was 5.5 days.
Summarizing the reasons for the decline in the popularity of the above-mentioned projects, it can basically be summarized as: insufficient innovation + neglect of operation.
For example, Yat and Wrapped Strikers have stagnated user growth due to the lack of effective operation methods. At present, there are less than 700 users and lack of consensus. Another example is the project of Slumdoge Billionaires, which is actually made into various styles of dog heads. This kind of hot gameplay A wave of users has been harvested when the MEME coin is popular, and it is destined to not last long.
Slumdoge Billionaires avatar
When looking at these projects, the biggest feeling I felt was “simplicity”. Many NFT project official websites only briefly introduce the project, without design concepts, and no future plans. Most of them are NFT for NFT. In addition, the fundamental reason why some celebrity IP-type NFTs have become colder is due to doubts about their legality. Users cannot be sure whether they are buying officially authorized or pirated copies. In addition, the high prices of such NFTs have also led to “passersby It is difficult for the Party to be interested in it.
(2) What do long-term popular projects rely on to maintain their popularity?
In the crypto market, failed projects are mostly similar, but successful projects have their own ways.
Below we will introduce the top 15 projects of NFT avatars, and try to reveal the secrets of success of these enduring NFTs.
The 15 items we counted are: CryptoPunks, Art Blocks, Bored Ape Yacht Club, 0N1 Force, Parallel Alpha, Pudgy Penguins, Hashmasks, Curio Cards, Bored Ape Kennel Club, Cool Cats, Veefriends, PUNKS Comic, World Of Women, CyberKongz VX, Mooncats.
According to the data, the “cumulative transaction volume” of the above 15 projects ranges from 30 million U.S. dollars to 910 million U.S. dollars, with an average of 160 million U.S. dollars and a median of 58.65 million U.S. dollars; the average of “cumulative buyers” is 5030 The median is 4601. Moreover, there is a big difference between the 15 projects mentioned above and the previous projects in that their cumulative users have basically reached about 4000, and there is a strong enough consensus-the average number of “owners” is 4329, and the median is 4437 people. These data can be used as an effective reference indicator for developers who are interested in hitting the head of the NFT project.
Regarding why these projects can be successful, we have also summarized a few key points:
One is that the project itself has relatively old qualifications . CryptoPunks and Curio Cards are the first batch of NFT fossil-level projects, which were born in 2017 and have contributed to the ERC-721 standard. When the NFT was conducting the “Renaissance”, the older batch of projects became the focus, with their own traffic, and foreign capital was more favored (Visa bought CryptoPunks), so it was able to keep the heat.
The second is the difference in aesthetics and the blessing of celebrities . Take World of Women as an example. It was one of the first collections of women-oriented projects. Behind it was Yam, a superstar among female artists, which brought full exposure to the project.
The third is to continuously upgrade the gameplay . A single static NFT avatar is not enough to meet the needs of users. Many projects have begun to create new gameplay ingeniously, such as airdrop and pledge mining (finance-oriented gameplay), NFT avatar birth (game-oriented gameplay)…
For example, Larva Labs, the development team of Cryptopunks, has launched the 3D virtual world game Meebits. Cryptopunks holders will be able to get Meebits for free, filling up their own gaps in the game field. Recently, the new product 0N1 Force has been among the top three in the OpenSea trading list through community operations- 0N1 Force will conduct a four-day daily pre-sale for community members who perform well, and requires users to actively interact with Discord and Twitter to maintain the popularity .
For NFT avatars, it may only take a week from the moment of prosperity to no one, and the life cycle is too short.
An important reason is that most of the current NFT avatars are mainly used for speculative psychology based on favorite collections, social displays, and sitting and waiting for appreciation. If the functionality of the NFT can be expanded, it would be an effective means to “extend life.” Specifically, NFT can be combined with games to improve playability; it can also be combined with mortgage lending to become the basic asset of DeFi, and so on.
Furthermore, the “legitimacy” of ownership of NFT avatars, storage methods, and differences from JPEG are also constantly shaking the rationality and belief foundation of the entire field.
The last important reason is that NFT lacks a mature pricing mechanism and lacks price discovery and value circulation. Once the consensus is quickly lost, NFT prices may avalanche all the way and burst the bubble. Therefore, designing a more mature and reasonable pricing method is also an effective means for NFT to move toward a larger circle.
Odaily Planet Daily has communicated with many NFT track entrepreneurs. The views of MixMarvel founder Jade Zhang may be able to solve the current problem. She proposed a triple value theory:
- The first priority is basic pricing. Each NFT is composed of how many blocks (the basic unit of “Lego on the chain” in the setting of MixMarvel), which determines how much value it has as a base. Because each block is exchanged for pledged tokens, and these tokens have a fair price in the market (market game price), a price is also assigned to each block.
- The second priority is functional value. The NFT work (finished or semi-finished) created by the player, how many people are cited in the copyright center, and how much others are willing to pay, also determine the functional value of the work itself.
- The third factor is the premium of the world view. For example, works created by well-known artists have a high premium; if the works created by ordinary people are interesting and widely recognized, they can also have a high premium.
At present, most of the works only have the third value, without the first two parts, and the third value is more likely to be hyped. With the influx of hot money, the “worldview premium” of most NFTs is seriously overestimated, and NFT prices continue to rise. Once the market turns bearish, there is often a situation where there is no market for prices. Good NFT works may be able to wait until the next bull market, and second-rate NFT works will eventually be eliminated by the market, and there will never be a day to come.
Finally, we also remind the majority of NFT collectors to uphold the “consumption” mentality, buy what you like, do not chase the wind, beware of being caught
Author: Qin Xiaofeng; Editor: Hao Fangzhou
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/does-anyone-buy-the-once-hot-nft-avatars/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.