Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

Is the Metaverse a superworld, or is it a deceit of the century?

Even though it’s been a few months since Facebook changed its name to Meta, the discussion about the Metaverse continues unabated. On January 18, 2022, Microsoft announced the acquisition of video game giant Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion in cash. Microsoft CEO Nadella said that games “played an important role” in the development of the Metaverse, and Activision Blizzard CEO Kotick told employees in an internal letter that the “Metaverseization” of games was the main reason why the company accepted Microsoft’s acquisition.

At the moment, no concept seems bigger, more abstract, more obscure, and more suitable for hype than the Metaverse.We vaguely feel that the Metaverse seems to represent the digital future and the next form of the Internet, but what is the evolution path and final form of the Metaverse? I believe that many readers still do not have the answer to convince themselves.

After referring to a lot of Metaverse related materials, this time Scale Partners will share our understanding of the concept of Metaverse and related thinking. We strive to remove the false and preserve the truth, and simplify the complex, so as to help readers understand the most critical elements of the concept of the Metaverse, and to improve their ability to discern various Metaverse themes or concepts.

The Connotation of the Metaverse

Defining the next frontier of the Metaverse is as difficult as describing what the mobile internet is. Nonetheless, we still need to clarify what the Metaverse is roughly . The famous philosopher Zhao Tingyang’s analysis from the word Metaverse itself is very enlightening: Verse in English can be understood as “version”, and Meta has two meanings: one is ” another field outside of something “, and the second is “version”. It is “something more fundamental behindsomething”. Since the idea of ​​the Metaverse ultimately needs to be supported by the energy of the real world, the Metaverse should not be a more fundamental universe, but more likely to be another world outside the real world, that is, the Metaverse is more like a “superworld”.

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

Here we adopt the description of the Metaverse by Chen Xu, the founder of MetaZ and the former chief consultant of the Chinese version of MIT Technology Review, to give our understanding of the Metaverse: the Metaverse is not a virtual world separated or parallel to the real physical world, but a human being A digital world to engage and live in a digital identity. Here are three key points to explain to the reader:

a. “Digital Identity” VS “Digital Account”. A digital account is only a part of a digital identity and records only part of the information about each of us. Each digital account itself is attached to a person with a real identity. In the Metaverse, each person can have multiple digital identities;

b. “Participation” means “Free Participation”. The Metaverse does not belong to any country or company , there is no pre-written plot, no characters that have been formulated, and there is no end point or main clue like game clearance. Everyone in the Metaverse has the right to participate in the formulation of rules and create their own world;

c. “Living” is not the same as “seeing.” The form of interaction and experience in the Metaverse is different from our use of computers or smartphones. In Zuckerberg’s words, the Metaverse is an “internet in which we participate and can be immersed in it”, a place where all sensory experiences are digital world.

If you accept the above discussion, then I believe that readers can easily come to this judgment: VR/AR, various games, UGC platforms in 3D virtual worlds (such as Roblox), Nvidia’s Omniverse platform, etc. are not Metaverse, Just like smart phones, mobile apps, Douyin and other video UGC platforms, application development tools, etc. are not mobile Internet.

Broad and narrow Metaverse

The reason why many current discussions on the Metaverse appear to be “differences greater than consensus” is not only due to the inconsistent understanding of the connotation of the Metaverse, but also has something to do with the “narrow” or “broad” version of the Metaverse that the author did not explicitly discuss. Therefore, it is necessary for us to understand the “two versions” of the Metaverse:

Narrow Metaverse:

The offline physical world is completely mapped into the digital world, and the online and offline are integrated. Who people are in the real world is who they are in the Metaverse. It can be seen that the essence of the Metaverse in the narrow sense is a virtual world that is more fully mapped and more complete than the current one, which can be understood as a situation in which the digital twin is pushed to the extreme.

Generalized Metaverse:

The Metaverse in a broad sense is not satisfied with only fully mapping the real world to the digital world, and does not even mandate that the digital world needs to reflect all or part of the elements in the real world. Therefore, in theory, there can be an infinite number of generalized Metaverses. If the generalized Metaverse is pushed to the extreme, to a certain extent, it is the scene seen by humans living in the matrix (Matrix) in “The Matrix” (here we do not intend to discuss the relevant content of the brain-computer interface).

An unavoidable question about the generalized Metaverse is: If there are indeed multiple Metaverses, how can the same person communicate between the Metaverses? You must know that the problem of enterprises building their own spheres of influence has not been solved well even with the current strong administrative intervention. In the Metaverse, who has the ability, the will, and the aptitude to solve this potential problem? 

The value of the existence of the Metaverse

If we think about it carefully, we will find that more than 90% of discussions on the value of the Metaverse are essentially analyzing the value of the VR/AR industry. So what is the value of such a grand narrative concept of the Metaverse? Here are the results of our reading and thinking:

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

1. Give people the opportunity to create the world they want, build or better maintain relationships, and experience the sense of existence as a human being.

It should be said that the Metaverse makes it possible for people’s ideas about life to be implemented, which is embodied in the following ways:

a. In the Metaverse, people establish rules, define values, and realize their own ideas, so as to better identify themselves and gain a sense of existence.

b. It is human nature to position itself through interaction. The Metaverse may help us build more relationships with others, potentially leading to more positive experiences.

2. Inject new vitality into the slowing Internet development process, while addressing the threats that AI and robots may pose to humans:

a. At present, in the visual (text, pictures, video, live broadcast) and auditory (audio) fields, the development opportunities of the Internet have achieved a flat extension between different social classes. In the future, Metaverse will realize the digitalization of human senses from the five sensory dimensions of vision, hearing, touch, smell and taste, breaking the current situation of involution and competition among large companies under the background of peak traffic dividends.

b. The large-scale application of AI and robots in the future is likely to cause a series of problems (such as unemployment of a large number of people), and new employment models, employment models, and even new occupations may be born in the Metaverse, allowing people to create new value to provide solutions to real-world problems.

Metaverse Three Elements and Core Supporting Technologies

For entrepreneurs and investors in the primary market, how to judge whether the project is related to the Metaverse?Combined with the discussion of the connotation of the Metaverse in the first part, we believe that the following three elements are crucial:

1.  Hardware devices that provide an immersive, indistinguishable experience: The most intuitive form of the Metaverse is a virtual world where all sensory experiences are digitized. Therefore, the importance of hardware devices that can provide users with a real and comfortable experience is self-evident.

2.  Identity systems: There needs to be proper isolation between identity systems in the Metaverse and real-world identities. In order for everyone’s digital identity to exist independently and for a long time, no one in the Metaverse has “super authority” to manage or delete digital identity.

3.  Value system: including operating rules and economic systems. The operating rules in the Metaverse are not preset by centralized institutions in advance, and the economic system in the Metaverse may represent brand-new social relations and production relations.

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

Obviously, from the perspective of practice and implementation, the blockchain is undoubtedly the core supporting technology of the Metaverse: on the one hand, the identity system needs to rely on the decentralized characteristics of theblockchain to maintain its independence; on the other hand, based on the The NFT (Non- Fungible Token) of the blockchain can make items in the digital world (games, artworks, collectibles, digital music, etc.) indivisible andunreproducible (thus solving the problem of item uniqueness), And trace the ownership of this item or thing information, so that people can exchange and trade digital items.

Supplement: The digital cryptocurrencies on the blockchain are divided into two categories: native coins and tokens. The former represents bitcoin, ether, etc., which have their own main chain and use the transactions on the chain to Maintain ledger data; tokens are attached to the existing blockchain and use smart contracts to record the ledger. Tokens are further divided into two types: homogeneous tokens and non-homogeneous tokens. The former can be replaced with each other and can be split infinitely, while the latter are inseparable and replaceable and unique.

Metaverse of six investment territory

The Metaverse could be the second huge opportunity for integrated innovation after the smartphone . From the current point of view, the difficulty of realizing the Metaverse may be on the same order of magnitude as the difficulty of building the entire Internet world in the 1980s. We have compiled the six investment maps of the Metaverse to facilitate entrepreneurs and investors to better identify and seize opportunities. 

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

1. Hardware and Operating System

The immersive nature of the Metaverse requires devices to provide three-dimensional information presentation and interaction solutions, while electronic devices such as smartphones and tablet computers isolate people from the information world through a screen, so that we can only interact indirectly with the external environment. Therefore, hardware opportunities under the Metaverse concept focus on VR/AR/MR devices that can bring excellent immersive experience and simulation effects. In the future, more accessories may be adapted to the all-in-one XR device to better give users five senses of vision, hearing, touch, taste and smell.

The operating system is the interface between the user and the hardware, controlling and managing the entire hardware and software resources. From historical experience, the competition intensity of the operating system of XR equipment will be much higher than the competition intensity of XR hardware itself. In the battle of operating systems, time is a factor that cannot be ignored. At the same time, whoever can better balance the creativity of developers and the experience of consumers has a better chance of winning. 

2. Back-end infrastructure

2.1 Communication network

To ensure that a large number of users can interact in a virtual environment in real time, shared and persistently, it is necessary to ensure that a large amount of data can be sent and received smoothly, and the 4G network obviously cannot handle such a large-scale data load. The 5G network enables the smooth transmission of high-definition images, videos, massive data and other information in the Metaverse. At the same time, the characteristics of immersive experience and application scenarios also place high requirements on the delay of communication networks, and the low-latency characteristics of 5G networks can meet this requirement.

2.2 Computing power/cloud computing and edge computing

Since the information in the Metaverse is presented in three-dimensional form, and a large number of users will participate in it flexibly and individually, the realization of the Metaverse will bring about the largest demand for continuous and stable computing power in history. Solving this terrifying computing problem will likely require major breakthroughs in quantum computing.

In addition, limited by factors such as network bandwidth, computing throughput, and the consideration of protecting data security, it is an inevitable choice to combine cloud computing and edge computing at present: cloud computing is responsible for global, non-real-time, long-term Big data processing and analysis can play an advantage in long-term maintenance, business decision support and other fields; edge computing is more suitable for local, real-time, short-cycle data processing and analysis, and can better support real-time intelligent decision-making and intelligent decision-making of local business. implement.

Description: Edge computing refers to a distributed open platform that integrates network, computing, storage, and application core capabilities at the edge of the network close to the data source. It can act as a bridge connecting the physical and digital worlds to connect smart assets, smart gateways, smart systems, and more.

3. The underlying architecture

3.1 Blockchain

As we covered in Part IV, blockchain powers the identity system and value system of the Metaverse. Although blockchain technology has been applied in some scenarios for many years, we must realize that the current blockchain technology is difficult to support a wide range of applications (such as retail level) due to high data storage requirements and poor scalability. payment). There are a lot of innovations in this industry and practices like Libra’s “centralized distributed processing architecture combined with a layered hybrid technology line of blockchain technology lines” deserve our attention.

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

3.2 Digital Twin

We mentioned in Part II that the construction of the Metaverse may require mapping all or part of the real world into the digital world. In this process, digital twin is an essential technology. Digital twin refers to the twinning of physical entities in the digital world, emphasizing the integration of the digital world and the physical world, and was first used in the field of industrial manufacturing. At present, the data point cloud is formed by scanning the environment with equipment, and the technology of identifying and extracting item models has gradually matured, and the ultra-large-scale 3D reconstruction at the city level has also entered the application stage.

3.3 Engine and Development Platform

In order to make it possible for everyone to participate in the construction process of the digital world and thus build an open Metaverse, we need low-threshold content creation tools (such as engines, development and design tool platforms, etc.) for ordinary users. In this regard, overseas related manufacturers have already taken a step forward: for example, Unity has repositioned itself as an “interactive content creation engine” and expanded its engine applications to other industries such as animation, film and television, architecture, and manufacturing. 

4. Artificial Intelligence

In the future, in order to reduce the time and labor cost of building the Metaverse, compared to PGC, PUGC or UGC, there will be more and more content or services generated by AI for human consumption; on the other hand, relying on existing It is no longer realistic to process data in all Metaverse situations in such a way that we need to rely on AI with autonomous learning and decision-making functions to help reduce the cost of supporting and maintaining the operation of the Metaverse. 

5. Content and Scenario

It is expected that the content consumption side of the Metaverse era will generally experience the following stages of development:

[1] Entertainment and social content come first to grab users’ attention: Compared with other content areas, games have the highest comprehensive readiness and are the starting point of Metaverse content. The XR device fully reflects the advantages of the Metaverse in social networking, attracting a large number of users;

[2] Many fields of production and life are penetrated: people will gradually get rid of the impression of “high-level game form” or “high-level social form” of the Metaverse, such as the formation of a closed-loop virtual consumption system, and the virtual world connected with the physical world. Services, etc. will gradually rise;

[3] New content and applications: manufacturers of houses, homes, cars and other items may also appear in the Metaverse, and traditional activities such as games and art exhibitions may have new content and presentation forms… We can even Imagine how a financial system built on digital assets will work. 

6. Collaborators

The Metaverse is likely to give birth to many new markets, new formats, and new great companies. In this process, some technical solutions and service providers will fully benefit from their own endowments, or form a new ecological cooperation system with other enterprises before the new competition pattern is determined.

Metaverse Investment Evolution Logic

In the previous section, we analyzed the six investment landscapes under the Metaverse concept. Considering that each sector will not develop in parallel, we need to have a general judgment on the evolution logic between these fields, so as to help entrepreneurs and investors to grasp the appropriate time node to enter the game:

a.  Hardware and content first . The growth momentum of XR hardware in the next few years has been relatively clear, and the content supporting the hardware has formed a positive cycle of mutual promotion with the hardware (we will release a VR/AR industry research report to further explore this point). In the future, the production, operation and interaction of new content/scenes will need to rely on the vigorous upgrade of the underlying architecture (game engine/tool ​​integration platform, etc.), and the underlying architecture will also enter the fast lane of development during this period.

b. With the upgrade of the underlying architecture and the continuous enrichment of content and scenarios, back- end infrastructure and artificial intelligence will play a huge role in data processing, content synthesis and other fields. We will see that AI will replace or assist humans to complete constructive work and become the core productivity in the Metaverse

c. Compared with other sections, the content and scene sections have the largest variables. New content, new scenarios, and new formats may reshape the scale and competitive landscape of the content industry. At the same time, in this process, there will be a large number of technical coordinators and service coordinators who will prosper the entire ecosystem to develop and grow together. 

Prediction of the development direction of the China- US dollar universe

To a certain extent, to focus on the Metaverse is to focus on China’s future in the world of science and technology.Currently, China and the United States lead the development of the global Metaverse, followed by Japan, South Korea, and Europe. In the short term, the endowments accumulated by countries in the mobile Internet era will affect the direction of their efforts in the field of the Metaverse. Here we briefly discuss the general direction of the development of the Sino-US dollar universe in the short term:

¡ The United States: It has obvious advantages in the three sectors of hardware and operating systems, back-end infrastructure, and underlying architecture, and also has strong competitiveness in the field of artificial intelligence. From an application point of view, American companies have made certain achievements in entertainment scenarios for C-end consumers, and they are also at the forefront of the world in industrial design and other scenarios that empower B-end consumers.

¡ ¡ China: Huge population base, huge geographical differences, and unique social and historical stages are all reasons for us to believe that China has a huge imagination in content and scene innovation. We expect Chinese entrepreneurs to create world-class content and landscape innovation, and create a new collaborative ecosystem in the process of realizing the Metaverse vision, just as they have transformed social, travel, payment and other fields in the mobile Internet era.

In the medium and long term, there are many variables, and it is too early to talk about the endgame. At present, China also has a certain accumulation in the underlying architecture sector, and is gradually narrowing the gap with the United States. Coupled with China’s huge willingness and strength to invest in infrastructure construction, we are optimistic that there will be opportunities for China to overtake in the field of artificial intelligence and back-end infrastructure in the future. It is expected that in the future, China will gradually surpass the United States and lead the world in the historical stage of Metaverse development. 

Important players and practices

Combined with our discussion of the “Three Elements of the Metaverse” in Part IV, we believe that we should focus on companies with “blockchain technology applications”, “digital content creation” and “consumer hardware capabilities”.Here we will select and introduce several companies worthy of attention at home and abroad, and explain our reasons:

1. Facebook (Meta)

At present, Facebook is the only company in the world that has made achievements in three aspects: “blockchain technology application”, “digital content creation” and “consumer hardware strength”: 

¡ Provide VR hardware through the Oculus product line to solve the problem of immersive experience; 

¡ Has launched applications such as digital wallet Novi as a blockchain technology reserve; 

¡ Accumulated experience in operating blockchain transactions, and have plans to develop NFT products;

2. NVIDIA

If we compare the Metaverse to a whole new wave of “gold rush” with infinite possibilities, then in addition to certain companies as “lucky gold diggers” who are the winners, the businesses that provide the tools for the Metaverse’s gold diggers are also winners.

NVIDIA provides Metaverse developers with productivity tools, such as graphics cards and AI technology, to simplify the difficulty of 3D modeling and image rendering for developers. We recommend that you focus on Nvidia’s Omniverse platform: a piece of software that can be downloaded to devices equipped with Nvidia graphics cards. The Omniverse software platform adds a lot of NVIDIA’s self-developed and third-party software toolkits to the NVIDIA graphics card’s ability to calculate and render realistic images to help people better design things in the Metaverse, or use them in some scenarios. digital twins, such as simulated industrial manufacturing, autonomous driving, virtual buildings, etc.

3. Tencent

Tencent’s investments in companies such as Epic Games, Spotify, and Snap, as well as its own resources in the social field, can be seen as Tencent’s key layout for the Metaverse. In 2020, Tencent also proposed to spend $70 billion in the next five years to strengthen its capabilities in cloud, AI, blockchain, 5G, quantum computing and other fields. However, we also see that Tencent has obvious shortcomings in the field of consumer hardware, and Tencent’s investment in foreign companies is likely to face greater policy uncertainty.

Of course, we can also judge the layout of large companies in the Metaverse concept according to the investment map provided in the fifth part. Here we list some companies and the results of their analysis for your reference

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

Arguments and concerns surrounding the Metaverse

In this section, we’ll start by listing some of the debates surrounding the Metaverse idea. Whether we are supporters or opponents of the Metaverse, we think it is necessary to think about these issues, because these discussions are crucial to forming a consensus of values ​​in the construction of the Metaverse.

Will the Metaverse bring human civilization to a standstill?

It’s easy to worry that the Metaverse will overwhelm large numbers of people with virtual content. If fewer and fewer people spend their time and energy paying attention to the real world, the speed at which problems in the real world are solved, or the progress of further exploration by human civilization, will be affected.

The other school believes that the development of the Metaverse and the exploration of outer space are not an either-or relationship, because the Metaverse can help us better understand problems (such as using VR equipment to stimulate children’s understanding of astronomy). Knowledge exploration enthusiasm, learning knowledge), and can also provide solutions for practices that are limited by physical conditions in life (for example, using digital twin technology to simulate various scenarios, and finally get a reliable solution and then apply it to real urban construction).

Will the Metaverse completely lay people flat in the real world?

If everyone can easily immerse themselves in a false scenario of a better life through a VR device, then we are prone to worry that the Metaverse might lose the motivation to change real life. However, in response to this statement, the opponent believes that the Metaverse does not lead to such an outcome, because people in the Metaverse also have to pay a price (time, creativity, etc.) to exchange what they want. Opponents further point out that people can monetize their capabilities by participating in the creation of new economic forms, and possibly bring the value created in the virtual world back to the real world, thus providing the opportunity for “losers” in the real world to change their fortunes. 

In addition to the two main arguments above, there are two concerns that are not well-received by proponents of the current Metaverse. We will also briefly introduce it here to facilitate related discussions:

Will the Metaverse bring a huge energy burden to the real world, and even affect human survival on Earth?

For the Metaverse to function, it needs the physical world we live in to provide it with all energy, including electricity, stably and continuously. So here comes the question: If the Metaverse cannot prove that the value created by the resources seized from the physical world exceeds the opportunity cost of those resources, then who can guarantee that the Metaverse will continue to operate stably or develop further, without being “pulled out”? In addition, even if the Metaverse creates great value, we are bound to conduct a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether the pressure the Metaverse exerts on Earth’s resources and the human environment (such as carbon emissions) can be offset.

How to design the mechanism in the Metaverse, or build a consensus of value?

As mentioned earlier, the Metaverse does not belong to any country or enterprise, there is no pre-written plot, no characters that have been formulated, and there is no end point or main clue like game clearance. Simply put, the Metaverse develops and grows through the process of co-creation by users. The question is, how can such a Metaverse, which maximises support for fairness and creativity, be guaranteed to have basic order? How can we trust and ensure that the Metaverse does not move towards the “war of all against all” as discussed by Hobbes?

In the current discussion about the Metaverse, there is not much discussion about the risk that the Metaverse may amplify the anonymity of the Internet age, thereby bringing about more moral and ethical issues, and how the authority in the physical world will behave in the Metaverse. The discussion on the existence of form and the performance of duties is very limited, which makes people wonder whether the Metaverse is just a concept that carries a beautiful imagination, and its vision must be partially or completely failed?

Additional news: During the “Horizon Worlds” test, a female tester reported that she was sexually harassed in the virtual world. The tester claimed that a stranger tried to “touch” his avatar in the square. “This (uncomfortable) feeling is stronger than being harassed on the Internet,” she wrote. Refer to the MIT Technology Review report: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/16/1042516/the-Metaverse-has-a-groping-problem/ 

some views and ideas

In this section, we will share some views and perspectives on the concept of the Metaverse itself and discussions related to the Metaverse for your reference. We do not intend to endorse these views, but we find them highly inspiring and hope to inspire readers to think more deeply about the Metaverse:

1. If we sort out the timeline, we will find that the interpretation and discussion of the Metaverse are basically concentrated after Facebook announced its name change to Meta. We need to judge the business logic of Facebook’s renaming to Meta, which will help improve our discernment in all kinds of discussions about the Metaverse.

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

2. Considering that Facebook has invested real money in the Metaverse (planning to invest more than $10 billion), there is probably no other company in the world that has more influence on the concept of the Metaverse than Facebook. In a way, Facebook holds the right to explain the concept of the Metaverse. In the short-term 3-5 years, if entrepreneurs want to strive for the Metaverse, it makes sense to keep an eye on Facebook-related actions.

3. The Metaverse seems to have become a “basket” today, into which any ideas, facilities, plans, tools, etc. about the future of mankind can be placed. But we must clearly recognize that the development of science and technology has its objective path and speed. Rather than talking about the Metaverse itself, let’s go back to the roots and focus on the technological evolution and industry development that underpins this story.

4. Zhao Tingyang believes that the Metaverse is the first effort of mankind to turn a possible world into a real world. The difference between the Metaverse and literature is that although literary works describe possible worlds, they actually think about real-world problems. And the Metaverse will compete for everyone’s rigidly constrained resource-time (or lifespan) in a new form, which is likely to have a “siphon effect” on the real world. The more attractive the universe is, the more people will gradually relocate into the Metaverse and experience things that cannot be done or changed in the real world.

5. It is difficult for people with “subject uniqueness” to carry different identity settings and everything closely related to each setting (social relationships, behavioral patterns, resources at their disposal, etc.). If we have multiple identities that are difficult to unify or even contradictory in the Metaverse (such as being both a man and a woman), then according to Zhao Tingyang, “the end result may not be that we have multiple identities, but that none of the identities is us.” . From the perspective of self-maintaining, the idea of ​​multiple Metaverses ultimately means cutting and amplifying different aspects of each person’s identity for everyone, allowing us to “walk around in style” within a certain range. *Part of the pictures in the article are from the Internet

Appendix: Metaverse Ecological Map

In 2021, Newzoom.com released the “Metaverse Ecology Map”. We attach the map here for your reference: 

Disenchanting the Metaverse: Investing Logic and Philosophical Thinking in One Article

 

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