Preface The way to win is simple
I’m not an investor; essentially, I’m just a gamer-like gambler. When I started speculating in stocks, I did it as a game. From the bottom of my heart, I think it’s a fun game. The blend of skill, luck, risk and reward really couldn’t be better.
I mainly day trade and hardly ever go long. Not doing what is commonly viewed as investing, but simply chasing wins and losses.
People say I make money speculating in stocks in a very simple way. Indeed, compared to others, I don’t do anything complicated, in fact my method is simpler. Precisely because of the simplicity, the core part needs to be figured out by you. And, there is a big distance between understanding and implementation. As the saying goes, it’s easier to know than to do. But on the flip side, it also shows that there are plenty of opportunities for many people.
It is generally believed that rich people have an advantage in investing, but in fact, the efficiency of investment decreases if the amount of money is large.
Books that teach people how to speculate in stocks are generally not very useful. Because once the summary is written and widely read, the method mentioned loses its edge. In the extreme, stocks are like a game of “rock, paper, scissors”, and once people know that rock, paper, scissors may be popular these days, and that cloth is better afterwards, the information is meaningless.
There are always days when you can’t make money as expected. There are also times when you accidentally lose a lot of money. It is because the stock market is full of changes every day that it is interesting.
Chapter 1: You can’t win an investment if you can’t beat human nature
Stocks that go up continuously will continue to go up.
Stocks that fall continuously will continue to fall.
When stock market veterans and newcomers ask for investment advice, I say “stocks that go up continuously will continue to go up, and stocks that go down continuously will continue to go down”. When the stock price is on the rise, betting that the stock price will continue to rise is called “homeopathic operation”; conversely, when the stock price is falling, betting that the stock price will rise against the trend is called “anti-disc operation”. Because of the two possibilities, so there are two kinds of statements. I’m going to focus on the “follow the trend operation”.
A rising stock price means that the people who buy the stock and put in more capital than the people who sell the stock and withdraw the capital, and there is always a reason for “more”. This reason is hard to explain 100%. Some people have a clear logic to buy, others may just buy after the rise. If you do hindsight, you can always give some reasons, but they are not comprehensive. However, at this moment is because some people buy and rise, some people sell and fall, this fact is clearly there. So, follow the rhythm of the market operation, the possibility of winning will be greater. I did not understand this principle at the time, two and a half years after opening the account, the hand of 3 million yen lost to only 1.04 million. I also added a significant portion of my savings and salary, and lost almost 10 million yen in a row. The reason for this is that I always give priority to following my own idea of “this is how it should be” and ignore the facts in front of me.
Buy up, not buy down. Buy the stock, sell it when it goes down. Buy with the trend. When the tide changes, sell as soon as possible. It is by following this principle that I have accumulated the wealth I have today.
The “real random” is crueler than imagined
There is a “law of large numbers” in the probability theory of statistics, which means that “the more times, the closer the real value is to the theoretical value”. For example, when flipping a coin, the probability of heads and tails is theoretically 50%. However, when the number of tosses is small, it is not uncommon to see consecutive heads or tails. If you keep tossing, the result will be closer to the theoretical value as the number of times increases. In the case of coins, there are only heads and tails, so it’s hard to see the variance, so let’s consider the example of rolling a die. Suppose we roll a dice with six sides. If we roll it just a few dozen times, the same number may appear all the time, as if by divine favor, or some numbers may not appear at all. Such a phenomenon is not uncommon. The conceptual randomness, although it has the impression of the conservation of victory and defeat, is much biased in microcosm.
The reality of randomness is brutal. Unlike the imagined regular randomness, there will be no conservation of winners and losers. But most people still care about probability and conservation. For example, if you flip a coin 10 times, even if all 10 times come up heads, the probability of which side comes up in the next flip should be 50% to 50%. But most people still think that the tails will come up soon. That means people tend to imagine a regular random and over-expect theoretical values of microscopic things. That’s a natural feeling and human nature. Even regular probability games have a tendency to do that.
Stocks are not a game of probability, so it’s best to take it for granted that “you can’t win or lose. Stocks that continue to rise go up, and stocks that continue to fall go down.
It is common to think that “if it goes up now, it will go down sooner or later”, just as it is common to hold the impression that “sooner or later, we will see the result of a constant win-loss situation”. When you casually think “there is no stock that always rises, it will always fall”, you are making an assumption of when it will fall. But what is obvious is the fact that it is going up now. How much it will go up is impossible for anyone to know. Do not make random assumptions, do hold during the rise is good. When a stock that has been rising falls slightly, whether it is a momentary fall or a reversal, this no one knows. As long as there are people who want to be sure of gains to sell at a profit, the stock price will fall some.
I don’t care much about tiny fluctuations and mostly sell when it falls some. In stock trading terminology, a sudden drop in a rising stock is called a “sudden drop”, and in most cases I sell on the second “sudden drop”.
Never buy on a sudden drop
Likewise, avoid buying when there is a sudden drop. Buying on a “sudden drop” is the act of buying a rising stock as soon as it drops. Even if a stock is going up strongly, it will fall for a while if there are people who want to sell it for a definite profit. If you want to buy during this period, you are buying when there is a sudden drop.
When buying a stock that has risen sharply, people often feel that they will miss the opportunity to buy it. But when you buy at a high level and it starts to fall, you don’t dare to look at it. Because of this risk aversion, people will buy on the dips. Even if a stock looks attractive, buying it when the stock price has pulled back a little may be due to the fragile psychology of insurance. Buying on the dip is buying on the dip, which is a type of contrarian action. It is also a kind of buying that must be avoided. This is contrary to the principle of chasing the upside and killing the downside.
There are also “waiting for a retracement but can not wait for the time” such as the saying. Continuously rising stocks, waiting for a pullback, but often can not wait. Thinking of buying on the dip, but the result is a continuous rise. This statement shows that the technique of buying on the dip is wrong.
The idea of “buying on dips” or “buying on undervaluation” is inherently wrong. If a stock is going up, you should buy it at that time. The idea of “missing the time to buy” after the stock has gone up for a while is based on the conservation of victory and defeat. No one knows how much it will go up. Don’t think, “It’s too late,” because if it’s still going up, it means that it will probably go up again. If you sell when you start to fall, the first time you feel “it’s too late,” it means you have such anxiety. No one knows when the reversal will happen.
Predicting the timing and price is the same as speculating at random. You should listen to the market when it tells you what to do.
Too busy with the immediate “lock profit”, you can not earn big
The term “lock-in” is short for locking in profits, and refers to the act of cashing in on stocks and foreign exchange that have risen compared to the time of purchase. Conversely, “stop loss” is the act of selling knowing that you will lose money if you sell now. A rising stock is not a win if you don’t sell it to make a real gain. The next moment, if it starts to fall, the rare gain will be gone with it. Because of such anxiety, there are people who are eager to lock in profits.
If a stock costs 1,000 yen, you won’t sell it even if it falls to 900 or 800 yen, but once it rises to 1,050 or 1,100 yen, you think you’ve made a profit and immediately want to sell it. If you don’t sell a stock you bought, even if it falls, you won’t recognize a loss. If a loss is recognized, it will be hard to accept psychologically. On the other hand, if a stock goes up, you are eager to sell it because people always have the mentality of “I won! I’ve made a profit” mentality.
Therefore, the downward stock is trapped, and the upward stock is immediately locked in profit, which is also based on human nature instinct. In fact, the method of taking profits in stocks, people often recommend selling at a certain stage of profit. The more common is, “the stock has risen, sell half, so as to determine the proceeds of the sale part”.
Because stocks are either up or down, people imagine unlimited money and fear nothing. There is nothing wrong with selling to overcome fear. However, it is not right as a way to take profit in the case of an upward trend. When it falls to 800 yen, you should sell immediately, and when it rises to 1,100 yen, it is better not to sell. This is the same idea as the “follow the trend” mentioned earlier.
Stocks that have just fallen are more likely to continue to fall than to reverse. A stock that has just risen is more likely to continue rising than reversing down. The correct term should be more efficient to win than to lose than to have a high probability.
It is not the probability of winning that matters, but the total return. Thinking in this way is the key to making money in stocks.
The sadness of losing 10,000 yen will be more profound than the joy of gaining 10,000 yen. To avoid such sadness, most people are busy locking in profit. However, if you lock your profit, even if you confirm your gain, you are still close to losing in total. If you sell a stock that has risen easily, you lock in today’s profit but lose tomorrow’s and the next day’s opportunities. So, don’t run away from the immediate profit.
The only way to profit is to take a long view and make more profitable trades, while small daily wins are meaningless.
If I think of my stocks in terms of wins and losses, only 30% of them are profitable. The rest are almost always capital preservation or small losses. But compared to the occasional small loss, there are stocks that have doubled 10 times or 20 times, and the probability of winning is low, but the total amount is positive. The probability of winning is low, and when it goes down, stop loss is timely, and there are always a few remaining stocks that gain 10 or 20 times the amount of loss. In terms of trading efficiency, it is easy to get good results this way.
Even if there are always small losses, occasionally you have to win a big one. Conversely, be wary of numerous small wins but one big loss. In this way, focusing on immediate gains is also equivalent to depriving yourself of the opportunity to win big.
“Covering” is the worst technique
One of the tricks of buying stocks is “covering”. When the stock you bought goes down, you buy some more to lower the average cost and lower the level of profit. Suppose the stock you bought for 10,000 yen per share falls to 8,000 yen, and you have a 2,000 yen loss. To make a profit, it needs to go up by 2001 yen. At this point, if you buy another share for 8,000 yen, the average price will drop to 9,000 yen. This way, you can turn a loss into a profit by going up 1001 yen. This is “covering”.
From the conclusion, I think “covering” is the worst technique. Sometimes it can be a fatal move. As I have always stressed the principle of buying rising stocks with the trend, holding the position when it continues to rise, and selling it once it falls. And “cover” is the opposite of that.
The stock that was expected to rise is a failure if it falls, but up to this point there is no problem. This is a common occurrence, and even the best of us cannot avoid it. The bad thing is that you cannot admit your failure. “Covering” is a contradictory practice of increasing the bet even though it is clear that you have failed. What you should do at this point is to admit defeat and liquidate your position quickly. That is, stop loss. Nevertheless, not to admit defeat, dragging the mud and expecting to turn defeat into victory is the original intention of “cover”. In doing so, of course, it is possible to turn defeat into victory, but also may lose very badly.
The most important thing is to stop losing money in time. It is certainly not good to avoid failure, but how can you minimize it? Even if you think so, “covering” is a technique that goes against it.
Stop-loss stocks are rising again, should I buy them?
The stock bought for 1,000 yen has fallen to 900 yen or 800 yen, and if you expect it to go back to 1,000 yen, you will be easily trapped, and if it continues like this, it may fall to 200 yen or 100 yen, and you will lose your money. Small losses are not a problem. In contrast, it is difficult to avoid losing all your money.
The important thing is not not to lose money, but not to lose big money. With the principle of no big losses, I was able to construct the assets I have today.
Although I have only 30% of stocks with a winning rate, if you look at stocks that are ready to trade within 24 hours, about 60% will make money. On the contrary, it took me 20 years of stock trading to finally improve to this level. If you look at a stock for two weeks in a row, only about 30% will make money. Even for stocks that I plan to hold for a long time, if there is a price movement, I stop immediately. As a result, the stocks that remain are the ones that have gone up a lot.
I don’t have a stop loss line with numerical criteria at all. If I thought it might go down in an hour, I sold it.
If the stop-loss stock rises again, should I buy it as a rising stock? This is also an important point. First, a stop loss is an admission of failure. You close your position because you admit that you bought the wrong stock. If you buy it back at a price higher than the price you sold it at, you admit that you were wrong to stop it, and you admit that you were wrong twice. I think some people will resist this. But I don’t care at all, and I can always take it calmly. I don’t resist because I don’t think about winning or losing in one round. When the stocks I buy go down, I sell them, and when they go up, I buy them. Of course there is a commission, that is basic, so you can only operate a few times over and over again.
If I’m wrong more than three times on the same stock, I’ll feel resentful, “Am I trapped in it?”, and I’ll consider not knowing the stock and stop, but until then, I’ll operate without fear. There is no point in thinking about partial wins and losses.
In the world of trading, there is no rule of “8 wins and 7 losses if you do well”.
When playing the game of mahjong, people always say that it is important to know when to “close”. This statement is also similar to the mentality of rushing to lock in profits. Considering the attention and physical strength, there is a time to stop, but if you can win, the more you do, the better. The consideration of closing is also based on the idea of the conservation of victory and defeat.
Regret that “I should have stopped then” is like discovering an important philosophy of life, regardless of the field of victory or defeat, and has no practical significance in considering how to win.
There is a writer named Tetsuya Asada who wrote many mahjong novels. In his novels and essays, he often says, “If you are good, you will win 8 and lose 7, but if you are good, you will win 9 and lose 6. This applies not only to winning and losing, but to all aspects of life. For example, in the novel “The New Mahjong Relaxation”, just as the main character is winning in mahjong, his apartment catches fire and his fiancée in the room is seriously injured. That is why Tetsuya Asada writes that life is always such a constant victory, there is no such thing as an overwhelming victory, and the more you are pleased with your life, the more careful you should be. If you listen to this as a theory of life, you will nod your head and resonate with it. But as a philosophy of victory and defeat, it does not make sense. It is still harmful to start from the idea that victory and defeat are constant.
In the case of stocks, it makes no sense to consider the number of wins and losses. The question to ask is not the probability of winning but the absolute value of the total return.
I don’t dismiss the idea of life theory, but it’s best not to apply it in the world of wins and losses. Believe that timing is a stumbling block to thinking. In the stock market, one has to obey the laws of the stock market.
The emotion of not being able to admit losses leads to failure
My early stop loss is considered to be very advanced among traders. Of course it can not compete with the current advanced algorithms, but it is quite a quick escape in the operation of the average person. If I think it will fall in 1 hour, I sell immediately. It has nothing to do with the price I bought, whether I made or lost money, if I think it will fall next, I will sell. The novice stock speculator just can’t stop loss in time, that’s why he fell a lot.
Despite locking profit very early, but can not stop loss, always wait for the rebound to the price of buying, I think that is because can not face the fact of loss. Locking in this way is the typical pattern of losing money. The emotion of “not wanting to lose money and not wanting to admit it” can lead to failure in the stock market. That’s why it’s important to stop your losses in time. It is more like a mental preparation than a skill.
In my case, there have been quite a few instances where I have actually failed due to stop loss too early. For example, I lost money when Trump won in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. Stocks were down momentarily, but Trump confessed to protecting corporate America, and I decided that was the time to buy, so I got into Dow Jones stock index futures and S&P stock index futures. However, there was no reversal up at all. After waiting for a while, I thought it was strange and wondered if there was some information I didn’t know, so I sold out before the U.S. stock market opened. As it turned out, once the U.S. stock market opened, it continued to rise sharply, just as I had previously predicted. I was going to wait a little longer, but stopped out too soon. If you wait until the opening of the market, the gains are considerable. Of course, if it starts to rise, you can still consider buying again. But the U.S. stock market has different tricky points than the Japanese stock market, so I just didn’t act.
When the stock fluctuates differently from what you expected, there is a good chance that there is some factor that you didn’t notice. When there is an abnormal movement, it is possible that it is caused by dealer intervention or insider trading. Once you sense such an anomaly, you should basically sell, regardless of the outcome. As a result, it is true that the stop loss is too early, but I think the operating philosophy is correct.
Whether it is the stock market or other games, basically the participants are the losers. Because in the case of the stock market, you have to pay fees and taxes, and in the case of casinos, you have to pay venue fees. And the ones who lose the most are the ones who have a biased perception of their own abilities and perception of themselves. In other words, people who can’t set aside their emotions to discipline themselves. To put it simply, those who cannot face their own state will lose badly. And such people will keep losing.
A good opportunity is when others feel fear
In the stock market, there are many times when people’s emotions have side effects. One is the idea that victory and defeat are constant, and the other is the idea that you don’t want to lose money. But these two thoughts are exactly the side effects.
Participation in the stock market is an act of risk-taking for gain. Even if you expect it to go up, it must be accompanied by risk. It is important to think that there is a 50% chance that it will go down. If you feel stressed because of this, it can’t be helped. Looking at working from a financial perspective is like buying a bond with a 100% probability of getting a certain amount each month. I’ve made most of my money since I was a student by playing pachinko machines, and I’ve never worked a job, so when I first started working, it felt new. Whether it was May, when there were many holidays, or February, when there were few days, I received a salary just like any other month. The pay was also not affected by the company’s performance or my sales results. That’s great. There is no risk of loss for commuters. If you don’t have the ability to bear losses, it’s best to go to work. I, on the other hand, love the stock market like crazy. Long ago already wealthy and free, but because happy I have been still doing.
The opportunity to make a lot of money is when people’s emotions are shaken. There are two extremes of plunges and surges, but people are more sensitive animals to sadness and fear than joy and anticipation, and the chances are greater when there is a plunge. When people feel fear, or even fear that the stock price will fall to the bottom is a good opportunity. This is the case, for example, when the Internet bubble burst, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, when the U.S. subprime debt crisis, when the Greek debt crisis, and when there are major natural disasters. These times, the public’s psychology is extremely panic, for the stock market is a good opportunity.
Hedging risk is pointless
All of us in the investment community have our own buying and selling styles. It is difficult to make money if you adopt a style that is opposite to your own personality. Finding a winning pattern that matches your personality is a shortcut to success. On top of that, if you want to make more money, you have to overcome your human instincts.
It is difficult to make money in the stock market if you cannot suppress the fear of loss rather than the emotion of wanting to make money. Rather than difficult, it is impossible.
I myself belong to the defensive type in the investment circle. Do not mind small losses, but try to avoid big losses, so to close fast to win. Granted, I guess it doesn’t make sense to buy without using a method that has the potential to make a big profit and still not take the risk. So, there are many times when the initiative is taken.
What I look for is a balance of risk and reward. No matter what kind of trading there are risks and rewards. I will act only when the expected return is higher than the risk. If it’s 50 percent against 50 percent, there’s no point in acting. When I want to buy a stock, I think about the reasons for the upside and the reasons for the downside. When it’s hard to draw a conclusion, I’ll see if the reasons for the upside are stronger and if I expect positive returns, then I can buy. This is a comparison of risk and return, and I call this judgment of letting go “efficiency”. No one knows if a stock will go up or down. If we knew, we would be able to earn as much as the national budget of Japan. If you are sure that it will definitely go up (or definitely go down), then you must not see some risks. There is no absolute up or down at any time. Even if you are pretty sure that you are bullish, the moment you buy, Lehman Brothers may collapse. I’ve also heard of people who bought shares of Tokyo Electric Power Company because they were optimistic about high dividends, and then the Great East Japan Earthquake happened. Such things happen all the time.
So in the stock market, no matter what kind of trading, risk and reward go hand in hand. It is impossible to see the advertisement of “not only capital protection, but also high return”. My personal feeling is that if you can guarantee an annualized return of 3% or more, it is best to consider that the other party is either using some clever tactics or is a scam.
Participation in the stock market involves taking risks for the sake of returns. Risk is absolute. People who are afraid of risk are not suitable for stock trading. I basically don’t hedge my risk.
Seeking returns requires taking risks, but if you pay more costs to spread the risk, you will only end up diluting the returns. Fund managers, because of the size of their capital, can lose their jobs if they have negative returns, so it is necessary to keep results flat. But as an individual trader, hedging doesn’t make sense.
The challenge and the opportunity are just a piece of paper away. The result can only be accepted.
Chapter 2: In the stock market, those who have bold assumptions win
On the stock market.
The first loach was particularly tasty, the
The second one is okay.
The third one is dispensable.
My returns in 2018 were not very good, and I had a float of ¥1.9 billion (about $110 million) in February, but I held the position too long and was down to ¥1.2 billion ($70 million) when I sold. Here, I describe what assumptions I used to operate in the first place.
Since 2017, stocks related to factory automation (FA), which stands for Factory Automation, and stocks of industrial robot manufacturers, which are the main players in realizing factory automation, have been hotly pursued. If you quote the press release, it is explained that countries such as China have officially entered the stage of labor-saving investment, and Japan is in the process of reforming the way of working, so investment is strong, so the demand for the products of these companies has increased a lot, and the performance has increased dramatically.
But these are economic news that I just simply look at and refer to at best. What really concerns me is which stocks are being bought more and which are being sold more.
I bought these stocks on the first day the market opened in 2018. In particular, I snapped up the stocks in question when Japanese stocks were bought in a big way on the U.S. stock market and the Japanese stock market shot up at the opening bell. During the continued rally after that, these companies released their quarterly reports one after another. The first was Yaskawa Electric, which released its third quarter results on January 23, with cumulative recurring profit up 85% year-over-year for April-December and 62% year-over-year for October-December. The results were extremely good.
It generally seems to be a good final account. But the next day, the stock price fell 4%. This was because market expectations were too high and the company’s performance did not meet market expectations. I also bought Yaskawa Electric, and the moment I saw that the failure to meet expectations had a downward trend, I liquidated my position and ran away in the early trading. And I immediately thought that other related stocks would be in the same situation.
In fact, I had already seen a decrease in buying volume of FA stocks on the subject, and there were share price movements. I had a position of 15 billion yen (about 900 million yuan), mostly in FA-themed stocks, including Omron, Renesas Electronics, and Fanaco, and I decided to sell them all before the quarterly report was released. The following day, I sold about 10 billion yen (about RMB 600 million) of stocks to clear out of the market. According to my trading scale, once I sold, the stock would have fallen a lot, but I ended up selling all of them in one day, which was quite difficult to think about. In fact, after the quarterly report was announced, those stocks started to fall.
After that short position observation (do not hold the stock, up or down on my profit and loss do not exist impact), I have this hypothesis: “Yaskawa Electric and Fanaco are stocks of the Nikkei index, up to this Nikkei index is mostly by the FA subject stock traction upward, the next fall, the same index will also be affected.” Therefore, I shorted the stock index futures of the Nikkei. Nikkei stock index futures are financial derivatives of the Nikkei index, and if the index falls after shorting, those who short it make money. Because the downward momentum continued, I continued to short a lot thereafter, and as I expected, the Nikkei plunged. As a result, I had a momentary float of 1.9 billion yen (about 110 million yuan). But after that, because of the long holding time, the actual profit was only 1.2 billion yen (about RMB 0.7 billion).
Jcom’s “Jcom order mistake” gave birth to a jobless tycoon
Other than that, the trade I made more money on was the “Jcom Mistake Incident”. This incident is very famous, but after all, it was more than 10 years ago, so I will briefly review it.
December 8, 2005. The head of Mizuho Securities placed an order with Tokyo MOTHERS Market2 to sell shares of Jcom, a newly listed general staffing company. The order was intended to be “sell 1 share for 610,000 yen”, but was entered as “sell 610,000 shares for 1 yen”. That happened at 9:27 am. Since it was a new stock, the opening price had not yet been determined. Before this order, the price was almost stable at 900,000 yen. At that moment, a large number of sell orders came out and the opening price slid to 672,000 yen in one fell swoop. Since this was a normally unlikely selling volume, it caused the stock price to continue to fall sharply after this, dropping to a downward price of 572,000 yen just three minutes later at 9:30. The person in charge then realized the mistake and cancelled the order, but at that time the system of the Tokyo Stock Exchange could not yet support cancellation orders. Since it was not possible to complete the sell order for 1 yen, the order for 610,000 shares was processed within the drop price range, i.e., “deemed processing,” but cancellation was not possible. The person in charge tried to cancel the order several times and also tried to cancel it on the TOSCO Direct trading system, but it was not possible. He called the Tokyo Stock Exchange and requested cancellation directly, but was also refused. Therefore, Mizuho Securities decided to buy back all the shares it had sold. A large number of buy orders came in, and the stock price rose sharply, stopping at 9:43. After that, individual traders who saw the mistaken order and started to buy, as well as holders who saw the sharp drop and sold in disarray, moved, and the stock price shifted sharply. the stock price finally stopped at 772,000 yen at 10:20 a.m. Despite Mizuho Securities’ trading to the contrary, 96,000 shares were not bought and were eventually absorbed by the market.
On the same day, shares of Nikko Securities, the lead underwriter of Jcom stock, followed suit and plunged. The selling even spread to other brokerage and bank stocks, and by the afternoon, the market feared that companies that had mistakenly placed orders might have to sell their other holdings in order to compensate for their losses, causing the entire Nikkei to plunge. On this day, Mizuho Securities suffered losses of 40.7 billion yen (about 3 billion yuan).
The next day, Mizuho Securities sued the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which had an incomplete system. The verdict was that the Tokyo Stock Exchange should bear 10.7 billion yen (about 800 million yuan) in losses. In addition, the securities firms that made money on the matter were asked to return their earnings, and six agreed to do so. Because it was a hot topic, major media outlets also scrambled to cover it.
One of these individual traders – BNF, who was unemployed – made 2 billion yen (about 150 million yuan), and I met him. He was recorded as a major shareholder in the report on changes in shareholder holdings. He was called “Jcom man” on TV programs, and he attracted attention as a “jobless tycoon”.
600 million yen (about 44.5 million yen) decided in a second
The above is the summary of events. As for me, I made 600 million (about 44.5 million RMB) from it. So next, let’s tell what happened from my point of view.
In those days, whenever there was a major event, you could always find out about it from the 2ch stock forum. At that time, everyone was yelling “there is a huge sell order”. When I learned of this, the first thing I did was to confirm that the sell order was not a manual error.
At that time, at the end of the system of the securities company, the system was able to accept the order even if the value entered was greater than the total number of issues. This was what I had previously read on the related homepage. So, to confirm that this sell order of 610,000 shares was abnormal, I immediately opened the prospectus of Jcom. I saw that 610,000 shares was almost 40 times the total number of shares issued and concluded that this was a hand error. Here’s a good opportunity. I thought. I decided to buy as many as I could. It took me about 20 seconds from seeing the news to making the decision. Because of the time spent on confirmation and the need to place the order manually, I was especially worried that that sell order would be cancelled before I could buy. I opened the computer windows one after another and bought 500 shares each. Did not use the market price but directly entered the price to buy in bulk. Finally, I bought 3300 shares.
After that, I couldn’t care less about the nervousness and excitement, I racked my brain to figure out how to keep the trade from being cancelled. In the U.S., there are no laws related to hand error orders, and you generally buy back at three times the low price you sold at. But in Japan I don’t think it’s that paranoid. If a securities company buys back all the error orders, it will have to suffer a loss of trillions of yen. And the securities company can’t afford that amount, so I think all the sales will be cancelled. This is the most terrible. Ten minutes after I bought it, when it went up for the first time, I thought everything might be lost, so I sold it all. Because I thought it would be very troublesome to keep holding the position if it was all deemed invalid. I bought shares of Mizuho Group and Nintendo with the several hundred million yen I had spent on arbitrage. If the Jcom deal was found to be invalid, then the next two deals would not have been valid either. The money earned was like falling from the sky.
Whether or not the money ends up in your pocket is the key. There is uneasiness when the money is not in your hands. The more money you make, the less you can be complacent and relaxed. At this time, it is especially important to consolidate the results of victory. The bigger the win, the more likely it is to turn into nothing. On a side note, I’ve been playing mahjong since I was young, and I’ve had a few experiences where everything went down the drain when I was having fun winning. Regardless of the past, it would be a shame to see all the money I made on Jcom go to zero this time.
There are several other individual traders I know who have made a lot of money. BNF, a jobless tycoon, and another retailer, uoa, held their positions until Jcom released its shareholder’s report on changes in shareholdings. The share price was almost 200,000 yen higher than the day’s hike, reaching about 970,000 yen per share. The feeling of a big win, I guess. But unlike them, I had been thinking about how the results would not be nullified by the Japanese government, rather than maximizing my gains. Further, I was thinking about what caused this company to place this order by mistake. And what is the approximate amount of loss. If the amount of loss is too large, the deal may be cancelled. If the loss is in the hundreds of billions of yen, a large securities firm can take responsibility for it. But then, the stock price of this company will fall. To deal with this situation, I considered shorting large securities firms and banks. I thought so myself and found the same topic being discussed on 2ch’s forum. The information on the Internet was really fast. But in the end, I didn’t short them.
At this event, I was always asked, “Why didn’t you keep holding those 3,300 shares?” “Wouldn’t you make more money if you kept holding?” But for me, I think I would have made the same choice even if the same situation happened 100 more times. Because I would only act after balancing risk and return.
Will such a misplaced order happen again in the future? After the Jcom incident, TSE introduced a trading system called Arrowhead. One day in late February 2018, there were tens of billions of sell orders again. “Is this a hand error? But it looks too fake.” I pondered, but didn’t buy. If it had been tens of trillions, it would have been a hand error order, but tens of billions would have been within the acceptable range and more suspicious. Since the stock dropped a lot after that, I think it was actually someone who was selling. I don’t know who is selling why, that stock is Nissan. in November 2018, Nissan was in the spotlight because of the arrest and stepping down of former chairman Carlos Ghosn.
Anyway, make a hypothesis.
I could probably call myself a stock market nerd. I’m always thinking, “If this happens, this will make money,” and there are dozens of such hypotheticals. Every once in a while it happens, and I’m proud of myself, “Look, here it comes. But it’s not a common sense hypothesis, such as “the yen will go down, exporters’ profits will go up, and stocks will go up. Not the kind of hypothesis that is known as common sense, but one that almost no one has thought about yet and has a clear investment logic. Or no one has pointed it out, or the logic is very unclear, but there is a clear correlation from past experience. For example, I am now concerned about the way the Nikkei is calculated. The Nikkei now has a very large weighting of Xpress, Fanaco, Softbank Group, Kyocera, etc., which operates Uniqlo. A small construction company’s share price is only a few hundred yen, and even if it stops, the impact on the Nikkei index is not as great as if Xunshan rose by 10 or 20 yen. This distortion has made it difficult for higher-priced stocks to be included in the Nikkei now. For example, Nintendo or Murata Manufacturing, both of which have more than 10,000 yen per share, have been rumored to be included in the Nikkei, but no decision has been made so far. That is, the Nikkei can float 300 yen in an instant after codifying such stocks with higher unit prices. The person in charge of the Nikkei is also accused of “including such a stock is not contrary to common sense”. Therefore, the price of a single stock is now between 4,000 yen and 6,000 yen, which is the upper limit.
However, there are two solutions to this problem. One is to force them to be included. The other is to codify one after another. Generally a month before the Nikkei component stocks change, analysts give various speculations, “This time it’s really Nintendo’s and Murata Manufacturing’s turn.” After that, the stocks mentioned go up and there is a chance to make a profit. But I don’t think anyone ever thought that “stocks like Nintendo are overpriced, so if they are included in the Nikkei, the impact will be negative, and inclusion is impossible. Another solution is to change the calculation method of the Nikkei to the same as the TSE. In my opinion, the change would mean that stocks with high unit prices could be included in the Nikkei, and stocks with high unit prices would be considered as subject stocks for inclusion in the Nikkei and would be sought after. If it happens, I will invest 1 billion yen (about 60 million yen) in each of the 5-10 stocks with a price of more than 10,000 yen that are not included in the Nikkei Index, and I think they will go up by 10%-20% at the moment of the announcement.
I always think about such a possibility.
There are many other unknown strategies in the stock market
A long time ago, there were rumors that the former UFJ Bank might go bankrupt. At that time it was just in time for Daiei to possibly raise money or some other capital market action, so the stock was halted. “Ah, no more trading. What happened?” I was thinking about it and looking at it, and that’s when I started to show signs of placing an order. So, I entered a stop value. Trading was stopped anyway, so even if I placed an order, it would not stand. Next, the stocks of UFJ Holdings and Daikyo and other companies shot up. So I started shorting UFJ and Daikyo, and then cancelled the buy order for Daikyo. Immediately thereafter, UFJ and Daikyo opened lower. At this point, I started buying back UFJ and Daikyo, and again placed a buy order for Daiei at the stop price. UFJ Bank is a major creditor of Daiei, and Daikyo is also a debtor of the former UFJ Bank and has people in contact with it. Normally, you don’t even have to think about it, because stocks in completely different industries like Daiei and Daikyo don’t move together.
Daiei’s strategy of placing orders worked twice. The third time it went up I tried short selling again, but there was no response. I then withdrew.
Why did you think of this operation? In the past, when there was a new stock listing, whether it was a ramen shop, a real estate company, or an IT company, despite the different industries, companies with a close listing date had a tendency to link up their stock prices. I was inspired by this.
Two stocks listed on the same day, I would buy one in large amounts, and the other, I would push up the share price, thus expecting the share price of the company I bought in large amounts to rise sharply, something like that. Stocks in completely different industries will link up in share price even if there is no particular reason to do so. For example, two companies, Kobo Online Entertainment and ACCESS Corporation, only have similar high share prices, while the rest are completely different, but why are they linked? There is no logic, the stock market presents the fact that this is the case.
Because Daiei is suspended, so even if the order is placed, it will not stand, and if it is cancelled afterwards, there is no risk at all. Risk-free arbitrage, such a trade is very cost effective.
There is a lot more that can be thought of and done. There are a lot of unknown strategies in this game of the stock market.
Two loaches in the stock market happen from time to time
From this point of view, it is very useful to know the past. However, learning about past cases will not normally make money. But in special cases, if you know similar cases from the past, you can immediately associate some winning logic. For example, when Jcom stock mistakenly placed an order, if I didn’t know the liquidation of past mistaken orders and the confirmation method, I might not have bought it if I was relatively conservative.
The first loach in the stock market is particularly good, and the second one also occurs from time to time. But the third one, then, I do not know. So everyone is scrambling to find the first one, but it’s actually very difficult to catch. The second one, on the other hand, is learned from market experience, and it is easy to make money, and earn a lot of money. But it is the third one that is generally widely popular. This one is a mixed blessing. The magazines “ZAi” and “SPA!” published the third article, no, probably both the fourth article.
The topics that are sought after by the media are outdated, and it’s impossible to win with a widely known message. It is best to understand this.
You can’t beat the stock market by just reading books
It’s a bit of an understatement to say something like this when I’ve published my own book, but it’s true, reading books won’t beat the market either. Books on the stock market or books on economics are a thing of the past. For example, the economics textbook will write “interest rates go up, stocks will fall”. Because if interest rates go up, it will be more profitable for investors to invest in bonds than stocks. But in fact, when interest rates go up, stocks sometimes go up very well. This is contrary to the economic theory, so it feels like “the textbook is lying”. When the economy is doing well, companies are constantly updating their performance, and investors who value performance will be tempted to add to their positions. At this time, the Bank of Japan or the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, stocks will continue to rise. After rising higher and higher to record highs, they will plunge. Perhaps for large funds and investment banks, buying bonds is more profitable, so this time 100 billion yen of sell orders appeared, I think this is the principle of the transfer of funds into the bond. So, although the book says “stocks will fall if interest rates go up,” the process of transferring money from stocks to bonds is actually quite tortuous. The strategy to deal with this is to “buy whenever you can leave the market”. Do not hold a large position, and as soon as you find something wrong, discount it.
And newspapers and magazines will write that “in past experience, stocks rise when interest rates rise, but then fall sharply” to summarize this process. But if you read my book carefully, you will find that it is not quite so.
The first loach that the market catches is particularly delicious. But after that, if you apply this theory, it will be very difficult. Think of it this way: when interest rates go up, buy a stock index futures, and then buy a put option that is more than 1,000 yen below the current stock price (which serves to reduce losses when the stock price falls), and with such a strategy, even if you are staring at the second loach. But again, there is nothing to do if this practice is also widely known.
The market actually tends to be risk-averse, so if there are two impressions of a plunge, the third will be alert and move in the opposite direction. That said, it’s important to know how the market thinks.
A recent hot topic is that the share price of Klab, which runs the handheld game “LoveLive! It is possible that someone bought the stock with red envelopes, so someone named it “birthday investment method”. At first, it worked very well, and there were many people who noticed the trend and made money by following the investment for the second time. However, after it spread on the internet, more and more people bought first and sold on the same day, and as a result, the stock ended up falling on the day of the birthday frequently.
The media cannot be trusted
Regarding the stock market, it is best not to rely on the media. After the morning close, television reports interpreting the stock market publish rankings of trading volume every hour. For example, there was this report, “Despite the rise in the yen, Toyota ranked first in trading volume due to increased buying on higher expectations for Toyota’s performance in the U.S.”
At that time, I also bought a lot of stocks that were ranked at the top of the trading volume of the TSE. Since I only traded in the morning, it was common for me to buy and sell billions of yen, which was a large percentage for morning trading. If you look at the whole day’s trading in the stock market, my trading volume is less than 10%, but if you look at the trading around 10:00 a.m., sometimes it is 30%. So that TV show about exchange rates and the U.S. market, it’s just a bunch of elements that are tied together and told in the same way. I don’t think about those elements at all, but I just want to sell tomorrow so I buy today. It was clear that I was the one who influenced the stock price during that time period, but the media had no idea what I thought, but interpreted it out of my imagination.
In the past, I sold nearly 5 billion yen of SoftBank Group shares to stop losses. At that time, the media interpreted it as “Alibaba’s stock was not doing well yesterday, so SoftBank’s stock fell today and ranked first in terms of trading volume”. No, it’s not like that, it’s because I sold. As a result, Alibaba followed the gun. According to such interpretation, there is also a book to analyze the stock. So, I never believe in books that talk about stocks.
As an aside, a weekly magazine wrote on its cover, “We interviewed the man who made 3.7 billion yen when the world’s stock markets plunged,” and gave me a long feature story. The magazine also wrote, “We had exclusive access to the man who has not been interviewed by any media except overseas.” In fact, not only had they not met me, but they even copied the content they wrote from my Twitter feed. It’s okay to quote from my Twitter feed, but it’s not credible to fabricate a direct interview or anything.
Chapter 3: An important step to success is to be able to look at the stock market and yourself calmly
In the stock market, you have to take risks in order to make a profit.
The risk is absolute.
People who are afraid of risk are not suitable for stock trading.
It is also important to act early in order to succeed.
As I wrote, my operation is simple. Some of my friends who are traders say the same thing. Sometimes, they guess “Is this the cis selling the stock? Nine times out of ten, they are right. Since I started making money, my operations have become easier. The more experience I have, the more strategies I can use. But the idea is actually very simple, and I think people who speculate in stocks can understand it.
So why can’t everyone be like me? Because as simple as it is, it’s hard to move your own money to operate. It seems that I should sell, but thinking that it might bounce back, I end up thinking too much. When the stock price rises, I will be happy to buy. But people don’t usually buy in the first place. You must think that it is the highest price so far, so will it come back down? For example, if an apple goes up to 400 yen (about 24 yuan) a piece, you generally don’t want to buy it. However, this does not work with stocks.
Most people are “buy low, sell high”, so they are not willing to buy after the expensive. But think about it, what is expensive compared to? It is with the past stock price. And the price has fallen because it is cheaper than the past price. If there is indeed a clear bubble, then there is no reasonable price. If you sell it at a higher price than you bought it, you make money. But it’s best not to compare it to the past.
When I first started speculating in stocks, I assumed whatever I wanted and kept losing money
When I first started speculating in stocks, I kept losing money. When I opened an account at an online brokerage, I put in 3 million yen. At that time I had about 10 million yen, which I had earned before graduating from college. After that, I added the remaining 7 million yen, as well as the 200,000 yen of my monthly salary after 50,000 yen of living expenses. However, the amount of money in the account was getting smaller and smaller.
At that time, I did financial analysis in my own way and looked for stocks that were cheap to buy. In the same industry, I usually picked cheap stocks to buy and waited for the market to re-evaluate to make money. That is, investing according to fundamentals: first do a financial analysis, then calculate the value of the business, and then buy the stock. For example, all other things being equal, a company with a profit of 1 billion yen and a market capitalization of 10 billion yen compared to a company with a profit of 10 billion yen and a market capitalization of 50 billion yen, I would buy the one with 50 billion yen. Because compared to the two, the latter’s profit is 10 times that of the former, while the market capitalization is only 5 times. If the company with 10 billion yen profit has a market value of 500 billion yen (equivalent to 50 times of the company with 1 billion yen profit), the company with 10 billion yen market value looks cheap and it is time to buy this one.
The reason why I kept losing money
At that time, the companies listed on the first section of the TSE were generally more expensive, while the stocks of Jasdaq and the second section of the TSE were numerically cheaper. At that time, I was following a company called Japan Airlines Systems (JAS). This company was later acquired by Japan Airlines (JAL). This company was much cheaper than both Japan Airlines and ANA. So I was convinced that the market would recognize its true value and the stock price would return to the appropriate level. I bought the stock with that in mind, but it fell after I bought it. Thinking that it would rebound soon, I added to my position, and the stock continued to fall. In the end, the company was acquired by Japan Airlines at a very unreasonable stock exchange ratio. I received a ridiculously expensive stock and was forced to think “what to do”. Just as the Nikkei fell past 10,000, analysts were screaming that it was cheap, but the stock still fell. I realized that what they were saying was not credible at all. After the dot-com bubble, that’s when the emerging small-cap stocks started to rise. So, the more you buy cheap stocks, the less money you make.
It wasn’t just JAS that I lost money on for six months. I lost about 10 million yen and ended up with only 1.04 million yen left in my account. This period did not work because it was not noticed that the so-called cheap was nothing but subjective. Of course, I did a financial analysis and came to the conclusion that it was cheap, but that was already reflected in the stock price.
Instead of thinking that the price doesn’t reflect the true value, we should look for the answer in the stock price and believe that the market is giving a reasonable price. The market has studied large stocks like JAL, ANA and JAS so thoroughly that it is impossible to be cheap and still ignore it. So even if it looks cheap, it is information that everyone knows.
There is no information about the ups and downs that is known in advance like insider trading, and the growth potential of the company and the direction of the stock price are completely inscrutable. In other words, there is no advantage for you. If you don’t have anything to offer, you can’t make money from others. If you use information that everyone knows, you will definitely not make money.
A company that is trusted will be trusted more, and a cheap stock will be cheaper. That’s what makes it more real.
The stock market does not change in the spirit of fairness and equality.
Buying on the subjective belief that it is cheap will only result in losing money. I realized this and learned it the hard way before figuring out my current style.
Market information can only be learned from the market
Someone always asks me: “How do you learn?” My method is to watch the movement of stock prices without distractions. The information of the market can only be learned from the market. The knowledge mentioned in books is in the past tense and does not help in the future.
I am also always asked, “How hard are you working?” I get up in the middle of the night and watch the market if I want to know the movement of the stock price, and I try quite hard. But I don’t watch it reluctantly, I watch it as if it were a game and enjoy it. That’s how I got to where I am now.
Perhaps the hardest thing about being a trader is that your theories are disproved over and over again. If you buy a stock that goes down, you stop it, but then it goes up again, will you buy it again? In other words, you have already denied yourself once when you stopped out, do you have to deny yourself again if you buy afterwards. For myself, I don’t care at all.
In any matter of winning or losing, it is the same, people who cannot evaluate themselves objectively will not win.
I didn’t realize that I had changed my approach to stock trading except when I came out of the shadow of losing money in stock trading. However, there has been non-stop learning from the results, and small improvements are made every day.
The time I started making money was when I got on the pension and fund bandwagon and switched to small cap stocks. I think this approach applies now. After that, using this as a basis, I counter-trade, or put a long holding time to operate with the trend, etc., more and more viable methods. Although I say that covering positions is the worst, I have done similar trades.
There were times when I thought, “I haven’t made much money lately. But not to the point where I was no longer able to do it, and not to the point where I was depressed. All I could think about was the stock price in a few minutes and the stock price tomorrow. There is absolutely no time to think about whether you can still hold on, or consider the right judgment to enter or exit.
The state of the market is more important than the state of yourself. To say a thousand words, it is most important to catch the beat of the market. I started making money after six months of stock trading, but my understanding of the market is evolving as I gain experience. If you say 100 now, when you first started to make money is only 20. now think about it is actually very low, but is occasionally earned a few times. At that time, institutions and funds and other large inflows of money, I think I was riding the wave.
When I made money, I immediately summed up my experience, acted quickly, and used leverage to the fullest.
Compared to then, the market has become more complicated now. I am now more distrustful of the market. More in awe of the market. So, the escape was faster.
In terms of news, it’s faster to tweet than NHK
Usually I only watch stock price fluctuations and Twitter. Basically, I look at Twitter, find any suspicious changes, immediately reduce my position some, and then check the news. For example, if I bought 1,000 Nikkei stock index futures, let’s say it fell by 150 yen after 30 seconds. At that point, I would sell 500 and reduce my position a bit, so that I can respond to whatever happens. After that, look at the news. That is, I would willingly stop my position while I still don’t know what’s going on. Afterwards, if I found nothing, I would think, “What just happened? Did it just make me break the bank?” But one has to accept it. The news on Twitter is the fastest. That is, tidbits of news. When Trump won the U.S. presidential race, local Twitter was the fastest, Reuters and Bloomberg were almost 30 seconds slower. Japanese news from NHK and others was a few minutes slower.
So, I basically only read Twitter. I also read newspapers and magazines, but for pure entertainment. That’s enough. For example, the rumors about the theft of Coincheck4’s virtual currency NEM are still faster than the news. It started out on Twitter with someone writing, “There are records of a large number of NEMs being transferred, is everything okay?” I didn’t follow this person who tweeted it, but after a lot of reposts, it was natural to see it. Because of the time difference between the Japanese, American and European markets, the Japanese stock market was the first to open on Monday. So if a major event happens over the weekend, the Japanese stock market is the first to be affected. In the event of political events in Europe and the US like Brexit, Trump’s election, etc., stocks will be sold off. At this time, the Japanese stock market always falls excessively. From my experience, you should counter buy in 90% of the cases at such times. Just like when Trump wins, when you think “what to do next”, you should buy the opposite.
Of course, this is when something big happens. Usually, it is against my “buy the upside” principle to buy the Dow Jones futures when they are down.
Conversely, if there is any good news in the U.S. over the weekend, the Dow Jones stock index futures rose 400 points, and the Nikkei also rose, then it is time to short. Generally will immediately pull back.
Be aware of insider trading
For people like me who only move the mouse, sometimes I lend a hand in some dubious trades. Typical of these are insider trading and banker stocks. When a suspicious trade appears no matter how I look at it, and it feels like it can’t go up tomorrow, I run away or hitch a ride and sell. So, after the market closes negative information is announced and the stock plummets the next day. There are especially many cases like this where you feel like you’ve been saved.
In fact, in most cases, suspicious transactions such as insider trading can be observed. For example, if you look back at the “Vitalitygate” incident, there were many people who liquidated their positions very early at that time. When various emerging stocks were going up, only Vital Gate was stable at about 700 yen and did not go up at all. I thought it was suspicious, and later found out that the regulators were watching.
In this day and age, information is easily leaked, so just think of it as insider trading if there is any suspicious trading. When malicious rumors spread, there will always be people who don’t want to buy and people who can only sell, and this stock will move differently in price compared to other stocks. Such a signal is helpful, so don’t take another shot. This way, the speed of escape will play a big role. I just keep an eye on the market and when I see more selling, I clear my position and run away. This helps a lot. Most of the high volume of trading is accompanied by insider trading, and other financial crimes. Next, the computer will monitor and the trades will be much cleaner.
So how do you determine suspicious transactions such as insider trading? I didn’t know at first. I don’t remember when I first noticed it, but I realized it after about two weeks of staring at the market. Once I did, I realized that I had a very different perspective and information than I thought. If you buy the lowest trading unit and keep watching afterwards, you can learn a lot. I gradually learned about the individual factors that cause buying and selling before a major trend like up or down was formed.
When I suspect a “market maker” is involved, it’s a good time.
I am very good at dealing with “market makers”. Supply and demand imbalances and large price swings are great fodder for the short term. I don’t care why the “dealer” is involved in a stock. With the hype of the banker’s shares, can be sold early, investment efficiency will be very high.
Now that I have more money, I don’t really look at small-cap stocks. However, before my total assets reached 6 billion yen (about 360 million yuan), I used to watch small-cap stocks that moved. But even though everyone said they were “stocks”, I didn’t know whether they were or not. For example, since 2003, emerging stocks have been rising, and at first everyone said that there were bankers involved. But later, more and more people bought them, and when the stock rose higher, it was found that large institutions such as pension funds were buying them and became major shareholders. Even if it looks like a dealer is speculating, I don’t actually know who is buying. So, you don’t have to judge whether it is a banker or not, just look at the movement of the stock price.
When there is a “blind money” movement, it’s time to make money.
The most profitable time for “blind money” like annuities to enter or leave the market is when they are in the market. Nowadays, the overall amount of money has become larger, and the proportion of blind money seems smaller, so annuities or investment trusts or overseas funds are equivalent to blind money. These institutions usually use tens of billions of yen to buy a number of stocks continuously for a specified period. I call these large transactions “blind money” or “prime movers. When the blind money flows in, if you can ride the wave, you will make a lot of money.
Conversely, when there is an outflow of funds, it is time to buy when you think they are almost sold out.
When there are blind capital outflows and other downward elements, it’s time to go short. For example, when the financial situation is bad and there is a need to increase capital. But I don’t really like shorting. On the one hand, shorting has a cost, and on the other hand, if shorting reaches 0.2% or more of the total issue volume of the stock, it needs to be declared, which is very troublesome. 0.2% will be reached once sold.
Retreating when you don’t lose your mind
As my experience in stock trading increased, I felt that my overall ability in risk management and other areas was improving. 29 years old, I would think, “I’m not doing as well this year as I did last year. Since then, 10 years have passed and I turned 39 this year. My response to the stock market started going downhill a long time ago. Not to mention assets, brain power and physical strength, if you will, are obviously declining. So the most important job for myself now is not to be overconfident and to consider the appropriate time to retire, so to speak.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/cis-stock-trading-technique-essentials/
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