Capital still prefers Tesla

Capital still prefers Tesla

During this period of time, the industry’s attention to Tesla has decreased, and capital’s research on Tesla has not relaxed.

Perhaps it was because Tesla consumed too much energy from users, media and the industry in the first half of the year, and its enthusiasm significantly cooled down in the second half of the year. Even the news of a price reduction of 70,000 Model Y did not cause a storm. Lao Li believes that there are two reasons: First, the media’s willingness to keep up with the heat has decreased, making it difficult to produce new things and excessively consuming users; second, friends in the industry are numb, thinking that they have “see through” Tesla.

Just as stocks have risen too much, they have to pull back and shake the market. Everyone has been watching Tesla’s changes during this period, but the secondary market researchers have not been idle. They have been observing, learning and researching Tesla. Many researchers believe that: Tesla At present, only half-successful skills have been demonstrated, and there are still half-successful skills. After the release next year, the stock price will rise again.

Today, I would like to start with, and discuss with you how Tesla will affect the market after the turmoil, and what actions will Tesla release next year? What will the capital market look like?

Go your own way, let others talk about it 

In the first half of the year, Tesla was all “negative news”, first involving data security, and then the Shanghai Auto Show, Internet public opinion was even more one-sided. After hammering the brake hammer AP, it seems that Tesla is all the problem. Tesla China’s official and media And the user staged a “opposing scene” within three months.

In this scene, melon-eating people accounted for the majority, and Lao Li restored the status of many friends from the side: Tesla China’s friends dealt with the negatives every day; some media interviewed our researchers every day to find questions ; Friends in the industry bet in the WeChat group how much Tesla’s sales can fall, and the eating melon index is no less than the current Wu Yifan incident.

Capital still prefers Tesla

Just as the earth lacks anyone else, no matter how bad the public opinion is, it cannot affect the pace of Tesla’s development. In the past month, Tesla inadvertently made a big move:

1. On June 26, Tesla recalled some 286,000 domestic models, including domestic Model 3/Y and imported Model 3, in order to solve the problem that drivers may accidentally touch the ACC switch in certain scenarios. The problem that causes the vehicle to accelerate suddenly. In other words, Tesla acknowledged the hidden danger of braking. In fact, Tesla’s car only has the problem of hidden danger of braking.

2. On July 8, the Tesla Model Y standard battery life version was released. It uses lithium iron phosphate batteries with a range of 525km and an acceleration of 5.6 seconds from 100 kilometers. The subsidized price is only 276,000 yuan. It is expected to be delivered in August.

3. On July 17, Tesla landed the first integrated optical storage and charging overcharge station in East China at the Wisdom Bay Science and Technology Park in Baoshan District, Shanghai. In the United States, Tesla’s integrated optical storage and charging supercharge station has been widely promoted, and Shanghai’s integrated optical storage and charging supercharge station means that Tesla is about to make efforts in the field of smart energy in China.

Capital still prefers Tesla

A friend told Lao Li that Tesla is very smart and has a strong learning ability. After three months of turmoil, I realized that my government relations skills were poor, so I began to recruit talents from government relations. Knowing my public relations skills were poor, I tried every way to improve my public relations level and held media luncheons.

Now, Tesla has learned even the Chinese people’s best “sounding fortune” : Everyone thinks that Tesla’s sales have deteriorated, but it actually affects Tesla’s sales for a month, May and June. If it were not for the strong performance of the Shenche Hongguang MINI EV, Tesla would have once again ascended the throne of sales of new energy vehicles.

According to official data released by Tesla China, the total sales of Tesla China in June were 33,155, and the cumulative sales in the first half of the year were 162,000, accounting for 41.9% of the global market. China is still Tesla’s most important market.

Many friends believe that Tesla’s sales rebound is due to the price reduction of Model Y. In fact, it is not. Some researchers believe that the sales rebound in May and June is mainly due to the better new energy vehicle market, coupled with Tesla’s preferential loans and full amount. With prepaid discounts, sales continue to rise as a matter of course.

What everyone cares most is not whether Tesla can sell well, but how much. Some analysts also interviewed industry experts. Many industry experts said: Tesla does not lack orders, and output is its sales. As long as the Shanghai factory supplies The chain is okay. It is only a matter of time before the production capacity goes up to sell 50,000 units per month. Therefore, many analysts believe that Tesla can sell 50,000 units per month in Q3 this year. Lao Li is relatively cautious about this goal.

To say a thousand words and ten thousand, everyone is most concerned about how much Tesla’s price can be lowered .

Lao Li discussed this issue with many researchers and industry experts. The conclusion is that Model 3 is likely to drop to 210,000 to 220,000 RMB this year, Model Y can drop to 250,000 to 260,000 RMB, 8,000-ton die-casting machine, 4680 After the popularization of batteries and self-developed electronic control systems, the cost of Model 3 has been further dropped, and relatively reasonable pricing can be calculated. Then, the price of Model Y can be calculated based on the law that the price of the same Model Y is 10% higher than that of Model 3.

It should be noted that these two prices only represent the lowest price this year, not the lower limit in the future, which may be lower.

Buy Tesla cars or stocks? 

Some friends will ask, is Tesla still a Tesla at such a low price? This is a good question. Going deeper, what is the positioning of the Tesla brand?

On this issue, industry and capital have reached a consensus, which is one of the few consensus on Tesla: that is, everyone believes that the main product positioning of Tesla Motors is Volkswagen Toyota, which means that this is a mass-market brand. Judging from the current price system, Model 3 and Model Y will enter the range of less than 200,000 as long as they drop a little bit.

Here Lao Li wants to mention a “7-layer pyramid” theory of the automobile industry, which was proposed by a senior industry expert. He believes that the automobile industry in the world can be divided into a 7-layer pyramid according to brand and price. Tesla’s approach It is gradually infiltrated from high to low:

First establish the image of the top layer (seventh layer) through the sports car , then penetrate to the ultra-luxury layer (sixth layer, representing Porsche) through Model S/X , and then infiltrate the luxury layer (fifth layer ) through Model 3/Y BBA) , and finally settled in the Volkswagen brand (the fourth layer, represented by Volkswagen and Toyota) .

For a long time, everyone feels that the main competitor of Model Y’s electric vehicle is Weilai ES6 (from 358,000 yuan) , and the competitor of fuel vehicle is BBA’s SUV. After this round of price cuts, Model Y has officially declared war on Volkswagen ID.4. I believe Xiaopeng will also be under pressure in the near future.

In other words, in the future, domestic joint venture brands and high-end independent brands will be widely affected by Tesla, but the reality seems to be that everyone is still indulged in the Tesla storm and cannot extricate themselves.

Why can Tesla achieve layer by layer penetration in such a fast time? Some people concluded that Tesla started from scratch and had a high degree of innovation, while others concluded that Musk’s first principles were used well and things were done steadily. Lao Li believes that these are the underlying reasons, and the most intuitive reason is technology.

After the ternary lithium boom, Tesla is the fastest company to push lithium iron phosphate batteries to the C-end market. There are many brands in China, and BYD has the fastest response; in terms of supply chain control, Tesla has a high localization rate and cost Low control is attributed to the Chinese, on the one hand because the supply chain is in China, and on the other hand, because Tesla’s supply chain is basically managed by the Chinese.

Tesla uses lithium iron phosphate batteries to play various ternary lithium battery products, coupled with its brand effect, has formed a very good dislocation play. Although other companies are also exploring low-cost solutions such as lithium iron phosphate batteries, the speed is too slow. After related products come out, Tesla will again lead with new models or new technologies.

Musk’s style of play is the most popular in the capital market. The capital market talks about expectations. What kind of companies have the highest expectations? Companies that dare to innovate, Tesla is such a company.

From 2019 to the present, Tesla’s stock has been rising. It is currently undergoing shock adjustments. Some researchers think it will be adjusted for one quarter, while others think it will be two quarters. This depends on market liquidity and industry prosperity. The performance of both of the US stocks is very uncertain, and Tesla’s stock price adjustment is the best state.

As the so-called adjustment is for a better upward trend, Tesla will definitely pull a quadratic growth curve. Lao Li believes that the driving force of the quadratic growth curve is not autonomous driving but smart energy. Many people say that if it were not for carbon neutrality, the concept of smart energy might not be so popular. Capital pays attention to taking advantage of the trend. Regardless of the progress of smart energy commercialization, as long as the concept of carbon neutrality exists, the capital market will continue to push it.

This is that pessimists are often right, and optimists are often successful.

Smart Energy Company +: Big Data Company + Electric Vehicle Company 

What is Tesla’s valuation password? It is “electric vehicle company + big data company + smart energy company”. Electric vehicle companies correspond to electric vehicle products, big data companies correspond to autonomous driving technology, and smart energy companies correspond to the integration of optical storage and charging. Judging from the current market performance, Tesla has achieved the goal of an electric vehicle company + a big data company, and capital has also made a corresponding valuation on it.

In the future, Tesla’s growth curve will come from smart energy. Smart energy is a very broad concept. Focusing on Tesla is the integration of photovoltaic storage and charging. Domestic companies in the photovoltaic and energy storage fields are also doing it, relatively well-known It is the integration of optical storage and charging at the headquarters of CATL. The current integration of optical storage and charging is just like the new energy vehicles 10 years ago. The direction is not a problem. The problem is who can do it first. Tesla is likely to be the first to eat a crab.

On July 17, Tesla landed East China’s first integrated optical storage and charging overcharge station in the Wisdom Bay Science and Technology Park in Baoshan District, Shanghai. The media received little attention. A month ago, China’s first Tesla integrated optical storage and charging The completion of the super charging station in Lhasa is even more uninteresting.

The overcharge station with integrated light storage and charging, as the name implies, is that after the solar roof system generates power, the electric energy is stored in the Powerwall battery, which can finally be used for daily charging of some pure electric vehicles. Solar panels, Powerwall energy storage batteries and charging piles are connected into a micro-grid to form a clean energy recycling ecological chain of “utilization, storage, and reuse”.

Compared with China, the installation speed of Tesla Powerwall in the United States is much faster. In the first quarter of this year, 100,000 Powerwalls have been installed in the United States.

Many people ask, what kind of changes can be brought about by the emergence of integrated optical storage and charging products, and what room for imagination? This is also the issue that researchers are most concerned about. The biggest change in the integration of optical storage and charging is to solve the difficulty of charging and fast charging. It does not need to be connected to the urban power grid. It can generate electricity, store and charge at no cost. From the perspective of commercial promotion, no matter what Whether you are a Tesla owner or not, you can install this micro-grid system at home for home power supply, and Tesla will become a smart energy company.

Undoubtedly, this is a product with very technical barriers. The core components of the integration of optical storage and charging are batteries and inverters. Not only must the photoelectric conversion efficiency be high, but also the discharge speed must be fast. Domestic car companies cannot make this product. At present, CATL and some photovoltaic companies have launched a layout. It is said that Huawei will also deploy in this field. The stronger the competitors, the higher the barriers and the better the market prospects.

The capital market is very optimistic about Tesla’s integrated optical storage and charging products for two reasons:

First, the general trend. Musk was not the first person to invent electric cars, but Musk did it; China is not the country that invented photovoltaics, but China’s photovoltaics lead the world. A person’s creativity and a country’s execution power will completely change the world. Musk vowed to fundamentally change the way the world uses energy, and countries around the world are vigorously promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. At this point in time, Musk is the easiest person to do this.

Capital still prefers Tesla

Second, ecological advantages. In the Ningde era, there were batteries, so we wanted to deploy. Huawei wanted to engage in intelligent power and also wanted to deploy. Tesla not only has batteries, but also overcharge stations, tens of thousands of vehicle terminals and real-time monitoring of energy operation data. From this perspective, Tesla has obvious advantages.

Musk once said: “Physics tends to be electric transportation, batteries are used for stationary energy storage, and solar/wind energy is used for power generation.” This may be Tesla’s ability to become an “electric vehicle company + smart energy company + big data company” The origin.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/capital-still-prefers-tesla/
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