BTC market analysis
The global attitude towards BTC now is exactly the same as the current world pattern. The big countries with strong centralization and strong credit as backing have an improbable attitude towards BTC, emphasizing regulation and tax increase. Smaller countries, such as Nigeria, Greece or sovereign countries with strong currencies, still have a positive and friendly attitude towards BTC. This constitutes a different stratification of the currency flow pool on the different levels of BTC. At present, the proportion of global cryptocurrency transactions is still the US dollar accounting for the first, around 79%, the second is the Korean won with a proportion of around 6.8%, followed by the Japanese yen at around 6.14%, and then the British pound and the euro, we see the fantasy of crypto assets, but also its pattern.
Inside this pattern, the ratio of who is the biggest beneficiary and who is the laggard of the pattern is clear at a glance. And we will inevitably face high volatility in crypto assets, a volatility that comes from uncertainty, an uncertainty that comes from the uncertainty of their fundamentals and technicals, from the opacity of their currency regulation, and from the lack of understanding of these industries by policy authorities. Uncertainty and high volatility are positively correlated, the greater the uncertainty the greater the volatility and vice versa of course the less.
And we will see less and less volatility for crypto assets after seeing the regulation, and the time window will be closed to reverse the trend with the addition of rationality.
So we can also foresee a window of 2-3 years, where the Pacific West Coast always hangs a sword to punish the devil “the policy of raising taxes and interest rates”, but also creates a Garden of Eden that rewards the winners: a three-year exemption period, so that all entrepreneurs who wish to create value in this field have room for mistakes, so we see a downward monetary policy possibility and an upward high growth sector possibility, this positive and negative sides of the alpha can be hedged, which is actually a wrong thesis, why?
Because their time windows and primary utility periods are different. A tightening monetary policy will have a long-cycle impact on the entire market, and no matter how high growth the crypto-asset sector is, it still won’t change the impact on the entire market, just like when the tide fades, the stronger the wetland system is, the lower the lock-up. But the better the wetland system is, the longer its ability to resist drought, and we expect to find better quality assets in this tightening market, which requires patience, determination, and independent self-judgment!
So we are not worried about the BTC shock now, because we deeply know that this position is a relatively robust bottom before the policy of tax and interest rate hike appears, if the policy of tax and interest rate hike appears, the currency tightening, then this bottom is certainly also can not hold.
So at this time, you should have two operating strategies, first, the short term can do 33000-35000 bottom to build a position, 38000-40000 space up to throw away; second, like us to wait for a long period of certainty position appears, and then enter the market.
ETH Market Analysis
BTC and ETH single-month volume is the highest in history, May is destined to be an extraordinary month, with the largest volume, the largest change of hands, the highest market sentiment, the formation of a cyclical top, the maximum limit of the Yang fish is the beginning of the Yin fish, destined to be impossible to reverse the market in the short term.
Many analysts and bigwigs have shouted that there will be higher BTC and ETH highs in the second half of the year, and I think this behavior will be hard to see. From the five elements and the law of yin and yang, it is indeed also true that we need to wait and wait for that lowest or close to lowest volume month to appear, that month is the limit of the yin fish, that may be the beginning of the yang fish.
The above statement is by no means a playful statement, but a judgment, a market sentiment-based, a money-driven phenomenon of the law – that is, the core direct factor of asset volatility is the first principle of money-driven.
So the strategy: wait and see.
Four Little Dragons, Two Dogs, DeFi and NFT
Four small dragons, two dogs wait and see, from this bull market can be seen, ADA / DOGE such little practical application but a large number of small mainstream underlying, the alpha returns far more than the mainstream underlying. This is the coefficient we can refer to in the next round of bull market, so the bull market speculates on the high popularity of the underlying, weakening other indicators. Bear markets hold the best choice for applying high consensus mainstream underlying, weakening other indicators.
Recently there will be a lot of NFT hot applications, the short term can pay attention to this type of application, DeFi temporarily lay down, do wait and see.
DOT/KSM market analysis
From the recent boka and canary various technical presentation patterns, facing a lot of difficulties, it seems that the surface in the loss of consensus and patience. But we see from the other side, the problems show that the team is actively promoting various plans, encountering problems instead shows that the team is really working hard, and dare to openly show that it is sincerely accomplishing something. Problems show that they can be solved, it’s just a matter of time, but we are more worried about projects that don’t have problems.
So from the recent status of Poca and technical disclosure, many people are disappointed, we instead reported higher expectations. Therefore, we need to do a good technical speculation based on the cyclicality of value investment. From the current position, the bottom of 18-20 is a relatively safe range, but we need to use currency cyclicality to help us make good timing choices.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/can-the-crypto-market-welcome-another-feast-as-the-reversal-channel-may-be-closed/
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