Can accurately predict the industry wind direction every time? The founder of the well-known research institute Messari “has two brushes”

Few people in the blockchain industry know Messari. The company has won a large number of fans with its detailed data and forward-looking vision beyond the limits of the industry.

As the founder of Messari, Ryan Selkis (Ryan Selkis) is more famous in the industry for his unbelievable words, but every one of his predictions is extremely accurate. Therefore, the exploration of the views of Messari founder Ryan Selkis has also become a required course for many start-up projects.

Then, as a “mysterious man” similar to “Satoshi Nakamoto” who can hardly find much information on the Internet, how should his views and forward-looking remarks be interpreted.

Is he a devil who uses his own influence to produce destructive effects in certain fields, or is he an angel in the blockchain industry, and how can he accurately predict the trend of the industry?

This article will sort out Ryan Selkis and his remarks with these questions, and try to find the development logic of the entire blockchain industry from it.

Ryan Selkis, founder of Messari

Messari is a blockchain database startup headquartered in New York, USA. Messari uses open source tools to build a blockchain database . The data stored in it includes the funds, development history, management structure, and management structure of each blockchain project. Supply plan, etc.

Ryan Selkis is the founder and CEO of Messari. As an entrepreneur, investor, writer, etc., he helped build the Bitcoin and digital currency ecosystem. In addition, he is also a founding team member of Digital Currency Group, the most active investment group in the industry, and CoinDesk, the most influential media brand.

Ryan Selkis holds an MBA degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology School of Business. He was originally the Chief Growth Officer of Digital Currency Group and then joined CoinDesk as the Managing Director.

At the end of 2020, Messari released the 2021 crypto market analysis and investment report, a total of 136 pages. When author Ryan Selkis had to write about LTC, BTC forked coins, XRP, XLM, which are ranked high in market capitalization but he didn’t like, Ryan Selkis’s first sentence “I can’t believe I have to write this rubbish. .”

From this part of the side, it can almost be judged that Ryan Selkis is a person with extremely high IQ, but not limited to various logical frameworks.

In the 136-page report, Ryan Selkis did not strictly list various industry data in the form of general industry reports to support his point of view. Instead, after making various point statements without causal logic in the report, I added a lengthy “inner drama” to myself, replacing various “data” with large sections of inner feelings.

Therefore, the translation of this report is not less difficult than Shakespeare’s drama, but it is absolutely undeniable that the scope and depth of the industry involved in Ryan Selkis’s report are unprecedented. It can almost be used as an “investment book” for blockchain practitioners.

This report involves several areas that are optimistic and not optimistic, and they have been confirmed one by one throughout 2021. In this regard, the establishment of Ryan Selkis’s authority is also inseparable from this report.

Have Ryan’s previous five predictions for 2021 come true?

Ryan Selkis made five predictions in the 2021 industry report. Below we will compare the current industry trends to interpret the results and logic of these predictions.

1. Investors should pay attention to the separation of performance between alternative tokens and real economic models.

In this prediction (to be precise, a warning to blockchain investors), Ryan Selkis listed six factors that determine the outcome of the investment, namely:

  • Currency (mainly POW consensus token, such as BTC);
  • Smart contract platform, such as Ethereum (ETH);
  • Stablecoin
  • DeFi “cooperation”;
  • Fixed and synthetic assets;
  • Web3/NFT assets.

Determine the investment direction by looking for the dominant asset among the above factors, Ryan Selkis said: “Although most crypto assets are related, over time, we have begun to see alternative tokens and real economic models. There is a clear separation of performance between assets.”

 Interpretation  : Obviously, 2021 cannot be regarded as a complete, continuous and stable year, but Bitcoin’s performance in March and November has actually demonstrated the correctness of Ryan Selkis’s views.

Although the BTC represented by the POW mechanism still shows its strength in value, the end of the fungible token is not far away. NFT is profoundly affecting market participants from the lower level of the market.

2. The real economy will affect the value of digital assets.

In Ryan Selkis’s prediction, he believes that global central banks have increased their debts during the entire year of 2020 in response to the epidemic. When these debts become currency and spread to ordinary people, the moisture content of currency will reach a record level. .

He also pointed out that if the Joe Biden government successfully passed an uncontrolled fiscal stimulus package in early 2021, the “speculative fire surrounding Bitcoin and other financial and hard assets” would add “more motivation.”

It is predicted that once the pattern of the real economy takes shape as Ryan Selkis envisioned, then “either way, Bitcoin seems to be the winner.”

 Interpretation  : Obviously, Ryan Selkis accurately predicted the impact of the real economy on the value of digital assets. In March 2021, the Fed’s continued currency issuance came to an end. The evil consequences of the issuance of too many currencies have not yet been perceived by the market. Therefore, the economy is indeed due to market conditions. Currency circulation “prospered” for a while, and the mainstream digital asset market began to decline.

However, as Christmas is getting closer and closer, the US debt problem of tens of thousands of dollars has become more and more serious. Several major developed markets such as the European Union and North America have begun to experience insufficient supply. At this time, the real economy is obviously unable to To make investors feel “secure”, what follows is that the mainstream digital asset market index is close to 70,000 US dollars.

3. Ethereum is facing difficulties.

In the report, Ryan Selkis vigorously devalued ETH and said: The “vitality” of Ethereum is “undeniable”, and it is difficult to ignore the five-year-old technology that handles more than $1 trillion in actual value transfer each year. This number has exceeded the level of PayPal.

 Interpretation  : Facts have proved that Ryan Selkis’s concerns are not unreasonable. The congestion problem of Ethereum and the application of its sharding technology have made Ethereum have more side chains, and cross-chain technology has emerged with Ethereum as the core.

But Ethereum also responded strongly to Ryan Selkis’s prediction with its soaring value. As of November 11, the highest value of Ethereum has risen to around $4,800, which is equivalent to BTC two years ago.

But if Ryan Selkis’s prediction is wrong, it seems that it’s not impossible. Any technology and vision has its limitations. When Ryan Selkis published his prediction at the end of 2020, he did not expect the hard fork and technical problems of Ethereum to be able to. Quickly solve through the two-layer network.

However, from the perspective of longer-term industry development trends, even if Ethereum has relieved part of the pressure through the current two-layer network problems, it still faces some challenges. Before the next upgrade, Ethereum will still be criticized by users.

4. NFT will be followed soon.

Ryan Selkis believes that “almost all types of NFTs built so far will eventually receive attention” because these make NFTs “a truly key component of a more open Internet.”

 Interpretation  : In fact, the fact that NFT can really be paid attention is not based on its “token” and the type of digital assets. It is precisely what Ryan Selkis called “a more open Internet”.

At that time, Ryan Selkis never thought that Facebook would be officially renamed “Meta” at the end of 2021, nor did he think that Metaverse would eventually become the ultimate form of the third-generation Internet, but all this did not affect his judgment.

The explosion of the meta-universe concept has made people see that in the coming Internet 3.0 era in the future, how to determine the ownership of meta-universe’s digital assets is the basis of all technologies. If there is no digital confirmation, then all the structures in the meta-universe become meaningless.

NFT began to use Gamefi to enter investors’ vision more widely from March 2021. As of mid-November 2021, the market value of the top ten NFTs in the global NFT market has exceeded US$14.8 billion.

5. Supervision will be tested.

Ryan Selkis believes that although regulators in Washington and elsewhere are getting tougher in their approach to the cryptocurrency market, they risk alienating the cryptocurrency community to the point that “some of us will start thinking about a final exit: how to rebuild The cryptocurrency market is even a crypto country.”

 Interpretation  : Facts have proved that the global digital asset market is facing the test of regulation in 2021.

However, whether it is the legalization of Bitcoin by El Salvador or the listing of the first Bitcoin ETF in the United States, it shows that regulation is also facing some tests.

Devil or Angel

Ryan Selkis wrote in a recent report: “The ultimate opponent to defeat is the country. For the United States, Bitcoin is a tool to undermine international sanctions. Will the Biden administration like Bitcoin? To be determined.”

In addition, Ryan Selkis announced that he will run for the U.S. Senate in 2024. Ryan Selkis announced the news on Twitter after finding a spokesperson at the Messari mainnet meeting. The identity of the spokesperson could not be confirmed and received a subpoena from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

This is one of the first serious political bids conducted by cryptocurrency entrepreneurs in the United States.

In the 12 years since Bitcoin came out, the blockchain industry has actually been facing adversity, although Bitcoin’s reputation has been consolidated to a certain extent by virtue of its status as a commodity. However, concerns about the US government’s ban on the broad digital asset market still exist.

Some of Ryan Selkis’s remarks are indeed “gold and good words” in the eyes of practitioners. They have extremely high prestige among a wide range of investors and are called investors’ angels. But Ryan Selkis’s overly aggressive approach may bring more stringent regulatory measures to the industry.

Ryan Selkis recognizes the resilience of Bitcoin. He said: “Bitcoin is an indivisible private currency. Facts have proved that it is difficult to be destroyed.” This is the logical support for his daring to involve digital assets and politics, but Bitcoin is difficult to be destroyed. It does not mean that it cannot be eliminated.

If a wide range of practitioners, based on the actions of Ryan Selkis, forcibly link the blockchain technology dedicated to solving human financial problems with politics, then the collapse of the “Bretton Woods System” belonging to the blockchain is imminent.

From this point of view, Ryan Selkis is no different from the devil of the industry to the industry!


At present, the global mainstream is still Internet-led Internet finance, and mainstream giants such as Amazon and eBay (eBay, an online auction shopping site that allows people around the world to buy and sell items online) have not fully accepted the distributed structure.

Blockchain is a technology that was paid attention to after the first Internet bubble burst at the beginning of this century. The field of digital assets as a form of value expression of blockchain is still in the early stage of the industry, and is far from reaching the maturity standard.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:
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