“Bulls, Ghosts, Snakes and Gods” in the Metaverse

Keep your eyes open and don’t be fooled.

"Bulls, Ghosts, Snakes and Gods" in the Metaverse

After more than two years of exploration, the industry has gradually formed a consensus on the Metaverse, that is, the maturity of the “Metaverse” will take at least three to five years.

But the scenes that happened in reality seem to have exceeded the expectations of many people. Even in the situation where the concept of the Metaverse has begun to cool down, many cities are still scrambling to introduce various investment promotion policies in an attempt to create a Metaverse of industrial agglomeration. The center and the Metaverse Park are exactly the same as the “Internet of Things Town” five or six years ago.

The original intention of carrying out the industrial layout in advance is understandable, and there is nothing wrong with using the Metaverse as the goal of the new economic growth engine. The question is whether the market environment of the Metaverse is out of the trial and error period, and is the so-called “Metaverse economy” still an elusive gamble?

In order to answer this question, this article wants to make a rough inventory of the companies in the “Metaverse” track, and help you identify the reality of some Metaverse companies. In view of the potential stakes and unnecessary troubles, the companies involved are mainly overseas, so please do not take the right seat.

 01 “Cow”: Pioneer or Martyr

Every time a turning point in the industry comes, there are always one or two companies rushing to the front, “raising their arms and shouting” to guide their peers or followers.

Most of the companies that have a strong history of technology and business have played such a role, IBM, Microsoft, Apple, Google and so on. With the hard power of technological innovation and a keen business sense, these companies are often able to reap a dividend period of up to ten years.

The Metaverse Era is no exception. There are two companies that are most likely to be remembered today: one is Meta, which started from social, and the other is the sandbox game Roblox.

Back in October 2021, Facebook officially changed its name to Meta, shifting the company’s strategic focus to the construction of the Metaverse ecosystem. Zuckerberg immediately proposed new concepts such as participation, virtual image, teleportation, and virtual goods on Facebook Connect 2021, and tried his best to describe his beautiful imagination of the Metaverse. After some high-profile marketing, the word “Meta” became known around the world, and Neil Stephenson’s science fiction novel “Avalanche” became popular.

"Bulls, Ghosts, Snakes and Gods" in the Metaverse

The sandbox game “Roblox” released in 2006, although not as big as Facebook, also plays a pivotal role in the Metaverse world. The famous eight characteristics of the Metaverse, namely identity, friends, immersion, low latency, diversity, anywhere, economy, and civilization, are regarded by many as the “essential elements” for judging Metaverse products.

However, in the face of uncertain opportunities, pioneers and martyrs are often opposed to each other, and the industry leaders standing on the trend may fall into the abyss if they are not careful.

At least Meta and Roblox have had their own problems.

Meta’s second-quarter financial report ushered in the first quarterly decline since its establishment, and the first quarter was the Metaverse division, which suffered a loss of $2.8 billion in a single quarter. Combined with the unfavorable impact of lower-than-expected advertising revenue and Oculus’s order reduction, Meta’s market value in 2022 will drop by about 50%. In addition to “throwing down” measures such as cutting spending and slowing hiring, Meta has also issued its first bond, with plans to raise $10 billion to fund projects such as the Metaverse.

Roblox, which takes the Metaverse Dongfeng, still maintains a good growth rate in terms of revenue and daily activities, but the outside world’s expectations for Roblox seem to be too high, and revenue and daily activities have been lower than analysts’ expectations for several consecutive quarters.Reflected on the market value level, Roblox once reached a high of more than 80 billion US dollars in 2021, and the current market value has been hovering below 30 billion US dollars for many days, shrinking by more than 60%.

What is certain is that if you look back on the evolutionary history of the Metaverse after many years, you will definitely be able to find one or two leading companies, but the list may not be Meta and Roblox. It may be Microsoft, which owns businesses such as HoloLens and Blizzard, and may be good at incubating “mystery”. Project” known as Google, and possibly other companies that haven’t been under the spotlight.

After all, what is remembered by history is always the “winning” side.

 02 “Ghost”: Pragmatic or Retreat

There may be only one or two “head sheep” in an industry, but behind them there may be a flock of thousands of sheep, joining them with different purposes.

When the giants can’t control their own destiny, can the followers be alone in the Metaverse? If you are not in a hurry to answer such a question, if you try to classify the mighty “flock”, even the flocks that follow have their own different thoughts.

Among them are crazy speculators.

According to institutional statistics, between 1998 and 1999, 63 companies changed their names to Internet-related. In the ten days before and after the name change, their stock prices increased by an average of 125%. The same is true in the era of the Metaverse. Many brokerages have sorted out the so-called “Metaverse” concept stocks, and the list is far more than a few dozen. There are even companies that just pointed out at the financial report meeting that “Metaverse-related businesses will be developed”. Included in the ranks of concept stocks.

There are similar entrepreneurial teams. Statistics from Sensor Tower show that from November 2021 to January 2022, about 552 apps added the word “Metaverse” to their product descriptions; some early-stage entrepreneurs who claimed to be AI companies, They have been labeled as the Metaverse, and they have become the pioneers of the Metaverse. It really is where the outlet is and where the direction of entrepreneurship is.

"Bulls, Ghosts, Snakes and Gods" in the Metaverse

There are also cautious testers.

The Metaverse is still in the “raw” stage, and many companies are quite cautious. They are not all in like Meta, and they are not conservative enough to rest on their laurels. Instead, they choose one or two fields to test the water temperature. A typical example is the Sony-style layout. It rarely shouts the slogan of “Metaverse”, but it is very honest in action. It has successively acquired animation streaming company Crunchyroll and game development company Bungie, invested in Epic, the developer of Unreal Engine, and launched it in time. hardware such as PS VR.

It’s not that it’s deliberately singing praises to Sony. The price of being too cautious may be strategic passivity or even missing out on immediate growth opportunities. It is precisely Sony’s attitude that needs to be learned from. Compared with empty slogans, firmly holding the right to speak in technology, content and hardware is undoubtedly a more rational and pragmatic consideration, and it is also a window of opportunity for many domestic companies to deal with the Metaverse. The correct posture should be.

Since the number of Metaverse companies is too large, even analysts who study on the Metaverse track, I am afraid it is difficult to distinguish whether a company is Li Kui or Li Gui, and the final answer can only be left to time.

To be precise, there is no essential difference between the two types of enterprises of “Niu” and “Ghost”, just like “NiuGui” in Chinese vocabulary, they are connected together most of the time.Perhaps there are different attitudes towards the “Metaverse”, and there may be some speculators who are promoting the application of the Metaverse, and have derived subdivided tracks such as virtual humans, VR, and digital twins , which are nothing more than high-profile and low-key, The difference between pragmatism and pragmatism.

The original intention of another group of Metaverse players has to draw a question mark.

 03 “Snake”: Gambling or Scam

Metaverse and Web 3.0 cannot be directly equated, but in many public discussions, the two terms are inevitably compared.

According to the explanation of a brokerage institution: Web1.0 is “readable”, which solves the problem of user browsing content; Web2.0 is “readable + writable”, which solves the problem of user-created content; Web3.0 is “readable and writable”. “Read + Write + Own” will solve the problems of user information security and content ownership.

Following this logic, data autonomy will be realized in the Web3.0 era, and the ownership and control of digital content created by users should belong to users. As far as the relationship between the two is concerned, Web 3.0 can be regarded as the infrastructure of the Metaverse, corresponding to elements such as identity and economy in the Metaverse.

In the past articles, we seldom discussed the topic of Web3.0, and deliberately avoided the appearance of words such as blockchain and NFT. The reason is inseparable from the gray attributes of these concepts.

For example, the full name of NFT is Non-Fungible Token, which translates into Chinese as a non-fungible token with irreplaceable characteristics. The most popular application is digital collections. NFTs uniquely mark digital content and become digital assets that can be permanently owned, preserved, and traced.

But in practical applications, people are more interested in the circulation of digital collections, rather than the collection. Taking the popular NFT project Bored Ape Yacht Club as an example, developers have designed 10,000 monkey atlases of different shapes and styles, and the total market value of these atlases has exceeded 1 billion US dollars. At the same time, virtual land became popular. The price of a piece of virtual land on the virtual game platform Sandbox was fired to 4.3 million US dollars.

"Bulls, Ghosts, Snakes and Gods" in the Metaverse

At Climate 2022, which ended not long ago, Bill Gates believed that the frenzy of NFTs is “100% based on the Bo stupid theory”, that is, the reason why people are willing to pay high prices beyond the true value of something is because they expect there will be a bigger one. Idiots are willing to pay more for it. Once there is no next fool willing to “take over”, the layers of bubbles may burst overnight, not to mention the fact that some platforms are known for being decentralized.

The most criticized point from the outside world is that at present, NFT only has the function of “confirming asset ownership”, which records the transaction chain of digital collections, and cannot be used against theft. For example, some pictures are recorded on the blockchain through binary code, and the binary code and hash value can be changed only by adjusting the contrast of the picture. The application prospect of a technology that can only confirm the right but cannot be used against theft is undoubtedly exaggerated.

If the challenge of applications such as digital people and virtual avatars is technology, the challenge of NFT is actually human nature. If it is to borrow digital collections to enhance user loyalty, some innovative applications are understandable, but human nature cannot withstand challenges. In those gray areas that are on the edge of law, some companies are holding high the banner of the Metaverse and will be curious. Heart-driven users are regarded as a crop of leeks to be cut.

 04 “God”: competition or co-opetition

In the nineteenth century, there was a gold rush in the western United States. In the end, many miners were empty-handed, but the merchants who sold water and shovels made a lot of money.

“Shovel seller” has thus become a specific title. Whenever new opportunities arise, there are always some people who choose to sell tools and reap the benefits when the market is in full swing. So that the light of the Metaverse has just emerged, and a large number of companies want to stick to the positioning of “Metaverse Selling Shovels”.

The leader among them is none other than Nvidia.

At the GTC summit in April 2021, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun gave a keynote speech of 1 hour and 48 minutes, and about 15 seconds was a “digital double” to attend, Huang Renxun’s iconic leather jacket, kitchen with fireplace and all the tables on the table. Objects are simulated images rendered by software technology. After the 15-second “digital double” was exposed, Nvidia’s computer graphics and simulation platform Omniverse released in 2019 quickly became popular.

"Bulls, Ghosts, Snakes and Gods" in the Metaverse

During SIGGRAPH 2022, NVIDIA once again released a series of product features and technical updates around the Metaverse: such as the Omniverse Avatar Cloud Engine, a cloud-native AI model and service that helps developers build and deploy interactive avatars; USD), and will cooperate in depth with companies such as Pixar, Adobe, Autodesk, and Siemens.

As a “god”-like existence in the Metaverse world, NVIDIA’s “aggressiveness” makes the outside world excited, but also mixed with some worries.

If the Metaverse wants to be implemented on a large scale, it must solve the cost and threshold of computing power, algorithm, content production and other dimensions. Nvidia, the dominant GPU computing power, intends to integrate PTC Creo, SideFX Houdini, Unity, Xcelerator and other different software and tools into Omniverse, thereby optimizing developers’ workflow and building virtual worlds and tools more easily than ever before. content.

The potential concern is that once Nvidia’s Omniverse occupies a large market share, it indicates that other “shovel sellers” who want to be compatible with Nvidia must follow its standards and rules.At the same time, developers may also be “kidnapped” by these platforms, just like the Wintel Alliance in the PC era.

The attitude of the outside world towards “shovel sellers” can be said to be entangled: it is hoped that they will compete with each other, and there will no longer be a situation where the right to speak is highly concentrated, and developers are no longer the “workers” of the giants; End unnecessary internal friction and accelerate the maturity of the underlying technology of the Metaverse.

Fortunately, it is not just Nvidia that has ambitions. Qualcomm, a mobile chip manufacturer, also wants to “pave the way” for the Metaverse. Not only has it launched a dedicated chip for XR products, it has also launched an XR developer platform, but it has also frequently linked up with companies in the industry chain such as Unity and Unreal Engine; The factory chose to cut in from solutions such as RTC, virtual human, and image engine, and also aimed at the “new infrastructure” of the Metaverse.

To a certain extent, the roles of “shovel sellers” such as Nvidia are very similar to NFT players. They all want to find new markets from the Metaverse, and they are also promoting the technological progress of the Metaverse. The difference is that some people want to make money continuously in the long run, and some people go astray unconsciously.

 05 Conclusion

I agree with the view of Ma Tianyi, a securities analyst: “The Metaverse is very fast as a productivity tool, but it is very slow as a parallel world .”

The early stage of the Metaverse is an indisputable fact. Even if there are signs of landing on the technical level, there are still too many uncertainties in the process of commercialization, such as potential ethical issues, legal regulatory issues, and even some “Metaverse” issues. Universe” is a gimmicky scam.

When there is no unified conclusion on the concept of the Metaverse in the academic world, the “Metaverse” has become a “big basket” of mixed fish and dragons. It is important to seize the opportunity of the Metaverse, but the premise is to keep your eyes open.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/bulls-ghosts-snakes-and-gods-in-the-metaverse/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

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