Blockchain subsequent trend analysis after 521

The 519 cryptocurrency circle collectively experienced a massive single-day waiver more violent than 312, and the entire industry was plunged into a state of uncertainty and panic.

Blockchain subsequent trend analysis after 521

The 519 cryptocurrency circle collectively experienced a massive one-day cutback more violent than 312, and the entire industry was plunged into a state of uncertainty and panic. The lack of clarity on policy and regulation may have led to a massive sell-off of miners and unregulated mass liquidation of collateralized lending classes, investor trepidation, and other factors that together led to this event.

On May 20, Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Fund, thought bitcoin would rise to $500,000. Musk posted a diamond hand on his personal social media accounts, implying no fear of volatility. The market seems to have reached a watershed of opinions in one day, with gaming conditions constantly occurring, long and short divergences, and fluctuating fundamentals, but it is times like these that make it all the more important to apply the first-nature principle to determine the essential course of development for the industry as a whole. First principles are also one of the reasons why Elon Musk was able to reduce the cost of SpaceX rocket by dozens of times, which belongs to a kind of ability and inspiration that can directly see the essence of the problem and seek the best solution by pushing forward or pushing back.

For the industry trend after 521, I would like to analyze the analogy through two perspectives together, fundamental and technical speculation.

Fundamental level.

  1. policy regulatory attitude, from the local now, China is still in a very cautious to prevent systemic financial risk during the comprehensive strategy, so at this time China regulation for digital currency and blockchain is still in a conservative state of embracing the end of blockchain and tentative digital currency. This state will likely continue until DECP and FX can introduce a relatively controlled regulatory approach, perhaps before fully opening up transactions. At the U.S. level, the SEC on the predictable increase in the implementation of controllable regulation of digital currencies, but also a larger scale acceptance of digital currencies, Gary Gensler himself is a digital currency pass, involved in the design and development of a market capitalization of the top 50 public chain, so it is good news for the industry as a whole, especially for the long-term development of compliance projects.

So, looking backwards from the fundamental firstness principle essentially, under the general trend of technology application, the big countries must eventually move towards the end result of strongly supporting digital currencies under relatively legal and compliant regulation, and the major giants and companies must also adopt and accept digital currencies as a payment method on a large scale. This is an almost inevitable outcome, and the policy dots in the process of back-propagation from the inevitable outcome also accomplish the market level volatility and arbitrage space. However, domestic regulatory policy in the short term, especially for the mining level, is still unclear and still possesses the fundamental risk of being suddenly sold off by miners, but in the long term it is good.

So, from this perspective, I personally support the inference of 1/2 of Cathie Wood, the sister of wood. After seeing the essence the rest is just a matter of waiting for time to prove it.

  1. The volume of funds and ETF level, as of 5.21 the total market value of the overall digital currency is only 1.74 trillion, if you exclude these days of the cut, the overall X2, but also less than 4 trillion market value. This is a very small market cap compared to the U.S. stock market alone, so from a capital volume level, there is still a lot of money that has not entered the digital currency space, and most of the market cap is still concentrated in bitcoin, and the current Alternative Investment ratios recommended by major investment banks are generally no more than 5% of allocation ratios. From this level, it is true that the total market capitalization still has a very large upside, but the specific is up in which token or project on the benevolent.

One important way to bring in more hot money is the specific timing of the opening of the BTC ETF in the US stock market and whether China will open up eft or other types of compliant direct trading models in the future. Personally, I think that this is also an inevitable end result to achieve, so from the long-term perspective of the volume of funds, there will also be more cash flow into the blockchain field.

  1. cognitive level, I believe that people who study in depth have found the essential difference between the current round of bull market and the last round of bull market, which is the long-term thinking of institutions entering on a large scale. in 2017, most of the institutions that rushed in to make money for speculation and killed the red-eye to enter the institutions, some domestic traditional well-known large institutions also cut a round by the project, while the current round of bull market is very different, with this enough long-term perspective institutions Provide funds as a base level moat, so this round of bull market personally think for bitcoin will be a long-term and slow bull market, but for different small coins may have speed fomo speculation significant up and down trend.

The overall cognitive level has gotten a substantial boost, including the NFT brought out of the circle of science, art combination, real estate combination, metaverse music combination, etc. The combination of more and more fields also makes the overall blockchain application scenario more and more mature. Although many people outside the field are still in a state of ignorance about bitcoin and blockchain, it is precisely because there are still unknown people that there is more room for further exploration and expansion. At present, large institutions have formed a more unified moat thinking, which is a very important and meaningful thing for the solidity of the fundamentals of the whole industry.

Speculative level.

519 brought the degree of panic is indeed more than ever 94 and 312, the vast majority of market value in one day cut, tens of billions of dollars of contracts burst, is indeed an unprecedented sudden attack. But here there is also a certain reasonable logic, such as the massive DEX animal park led to a lot of secondary market speculative funds transferred to the DEX, which undoubtedly also makes the liquidity of the secondary market was taken away a large part, resulting in the so-called market value of the relative inflated. Similar to building blocks, the removal of a few load-bearing logs in the middle of the process is more likely to lead to a temporary Crash collapse.

And such a crash also has the advantage of allowing chips to change hands quickly, allowing low profit-takers to panic sell, allowing the average cost of new entrants to increase, thus making the basic level of the foundation of the low price further elevated, and thus get further price and value improvement advantage in the subsequent market trend.

If only from the perspective of technical analysis of the K-line chart alone, this wave of the crash also has a multi-cycle long-term major trend divergence generated, is an inevitable washing process (the following chart is only the BTC daily chart, Boll normal distribution value to 99% of the statistical range), and the next is less than 2 weeks and more than a few months of trend adjustment time. But the long-term trend of individuals believe that still will not change

Brief analysis of the summary.

  1. From the fundamental point of view of the general situation and the general trend, the subsequent blockchain will always remain in the general upward trend, and this trend will continue for a longer time as the application of the technical level is improved.
  2. From the short-term regulatory and policy fundamentals, the situation is not clear and not very clear, but the ultimate goal of national policies is still for the stability of the financial system and the better development of the future. So these are also good for the long term.
  3. short-term mining industry level mining attitude, will affect the sudden movement of short-term ratio, so I personally recommend that in the short term do not operate with high leverage mortgage leverage, etc.. After all, you use 10 million, down 90% you still have 1 million, the number of coins has not changed, the future with the renewal of time you have the possibility of becoming 50 million, etc., but if it is a burst, 90% of the decline is enough to make hundreds of millions of assets go up in smoke.
  4. technical indicators, into a predictable retracement cycle, whether it will go further down depends on the overall market level sentiment, for those who like to arbitrage, into a cycle of the happiest volatility. For long term growth value lovers, enter a tougher heart gaming cycle, but long term individuals see little problem, please keep your risk in check.
  5. 521 생일 축하합니다

Note: This article is only a personal analysis of views, and does not have any investment advice behavior, please investors to judge carefully to prevent financial risk.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

Like (0)
Donate Buy me a coffee Buy me a coffee
Previous 2021-05-21 14:59
Next 2021-05-21 15:05

Related articles