As the title suggests, this is an amazing conclusion, especially if you’ve heard certain V’s telling you that the bull market phase is over, that it’s time to get off at $30,000 for bitcoin, and that ethereum better liquidate its position as soon as possible; or, you’ve heard certain analysts constantly admonishing you that the bull market is over if bitcoin always fails to effectively break $60,000, especially after the big drop you just experienced last night, and Musk’s announcement that Tesla is stopping using BTC payments.
I. Bearish on the cryptocurrency market
Of course there are several conclusions that support the conclusion that the bull market is coming to a head: 1. The bitcoin ratio went to 43%, entering what seems to be a bull/bear switch junction; 2. The ethereum/bitcoin trading pair has reached 0.08, which means that you can exchange 1 ethereum for 0.08 bitcoin. The last bull market, this ratio reached 0.12, the bull market is over; 3, bitcoin always does not rise, and the cottage coin surging, the carnival zoo soon becomes a slaughterhouse, the end of the bull market has come; 4, from a technical point of view, the structure of bitcoin is now very much like the structure of the head and shoulders, to 64,000 as the head, the two sides of the 61,000 as the shoulders, this is even a variation of the symmetrical head and shoulders, multiple top structure. For example, the trend of this chart.
- The risk of policy variation. Recently, led by CITIC Bank, it started to ban the purchase of BTC through bank cards, will the other four major state-owned banks follow suit or even issue a joint document? After all, in terms of short-term policy, the state does not quite encourage excessive private participation in cryptocurrencies such as BTC. After all, before Bitcoin is fully turned into a national reserve asset and enjoys the gold treatment, there is an impact on sovereign digital currencies, not to mention the profitable digital currencies, which inevitably have a huge impact on traditional entities, and the hollowing out of industry is a very bad situation for any country.
Second, long-term indicators
So why put forward the title so frightening statement again? Mainly from another perspective, long-term indicators. Of course, there is a school of analysts who believe that in the cryptocurrency world, any indicator prediction over 3 months is meaningless because the cryptocurrency world is so windy that a news story makes the story abort. So, which statement to adopt depends on which logic you believe. From a short-term point of view, short-term analysts, high technology can be more than half, but there are few more than 70% accuracy, at least V guest now do not see, otherwise follow along with the speculative wave, do not the contract is beautiful. But from a long-term perspective, long-term analysts, such as Jiang Zhuoer, perhaps he will not analyze, he understands a basic economic logic, but their accuracy rate may be as high as 100%. Far from it, let’s say this recent year, when bitcoin 10,000, some people shouted at you to reduce your position, saying that the short-term to a big pullback; 20,000 close to the historical high, some people also said hurry up and sell, because that is an important pressure level; to 30,000, some big V began to shout to reduce positions, saying that there is no always up not down coin; to 50,000, some analysts began to predict that will be retraced to the beginning of the word 3; the latest 60,000 retraced to 48,000. Analysts are starting to predict that the bull is going to end, especially since bitcoin has been below 60MA for a while now. This most recent time is tentative, but look at the past several times, if you don’t listen to the analysts’ blind bleeps, you take your chips and how is your yield to date? What you thought was a brilliant speculative swing, look at technical lines, ear to the ground big data opinion analysis, in the end, or not firmly hold the spot + from bitcoin 10,000 dollars or less to do a low leverage contract, this strategy to earn more, and maybe even seconds to kill you. Think back, is it true that every time, the big V you follow in the big pullback continuous grinding disk, published no confidence in the rhetoric, scaring you to reduce your position, but the result is: what? The bull is back? So, the short-term index is not meaningless, just the accuracy rate is hardly too high, while the long-term trend is not necessarily right, you can not say how reasonable these long-term indicators, but just several hits.
Three, bearish reasons
1、S2F Index S2F (Stock-to-Flow, Scarcity Indicator)
Created by Medium user PlanB, this indicator measures the scarcity of BTC by the ratio of BTC stock to increment. For reference, the current S2F values for gold and silver are 62 and 22 respectively. To correct for the stock value, this indicator estimates the number of coins lost in the network to be 1 million BTC, and uses S2F annual data, S2F monthly data and Bitcoin market price regressions respectively to value the BTC price.
The indicator can see that in the last bull market, bitcoin halved at $640, and a year and a half later reached $19,800, an increase of 30 times; further back in the first halving, the price was $13, and more than a year later reached the peak of the current bull market of $1,000, an increase of 80 times; if we extrapolate by analogy, the current round of halving occurred on May 12, 2020, if also according to 1.5 years Extrapolation, the rate of increase assumed from the first round of 80 times, the second round of 30 times, to the current round of 13 times, then from last year’s $ 9,200, then by November 2021, the price should go to $ 120,000. If this, you think is not credible, such as V God said this is rationalized nonsense, we then look at other indicators. 2, bitcoin / gold exchange ratio from ancient times to the present, fiat currency to become the world’s currency is the turn of the tide, the pound sings the dollar on stage, each leading the way for a hundred years, the next hundred years should be the yuan. But 3000 years of human commercial civilization history, only gold is standing, and the price of gold reflects the value of goods, has been extremely stable. A wonderful phenomenon is that the amount of gold used to buy a cow 3000 years ago is the same as that used to buy a cow today! This shows that gold is a real currency that can measure the value of commodities. So there’s an argument that maybe now China is the world’s number one GDP. in 2019, China’s GDP, or gross domestic product, totaled 99 trillion yuan; the U.S. GDP was $21.4 trillion. Using the traditional exchange rate approach, which was 6.9 yuan to the dollar last year, China’s GDP works out to be about $14 trillion, or two-thirds of the size of the U.S. economy. However, an algorithm from the venerable British magazine The Economist has put China’s economic volume, for the first time since 1880, above that of the United States. This is the Hamburger Index. Many countries around the world have McDonald’s and they all have his classic product: the Big Mac burger. Economists then thought, why not use the Big Mac price as a benchmark and calculate how long people in each country need to work to buy a Big Mac burger. So it’s unfair to use the US dollar, and China is number one in the world, both in terms of the Big Mac index and in terms of gold. Since gold is so stable and a truly multinational unified currency, relatively stable both against the dollar and the yuan, indicating its unique role as a general equivalent, is there anything that has a huge difference in price against gold? Yes, there is, most notably the digital gold Bitcoin.
This data can see that since the birth of bitcoin has a price, at the beginning 1 bitcoin can buy 0.09 ounces of gold, to the top of the first bull market in 2013, can buy 0.87 ounces of gold, up 10 times, and to the top of the last bull market, and went to 10.7, so should this bull market be normal to have to go up another 10 times? If it goes up another 10 times, it is to be able to buy more than 100 ounces of gold, which is now at $1,800, and if by the end of the year, it goes up to $2,700 normally, then the price of bitcoin comes to $270,000. If all the above data will make you feel that it is a simple replication of history, forcing the law, then some laws are decades-long laws. 3, the U.S. 10-year bond rate in the spirit of everything is K-line perspective, we look at the U.S. 10-year bond rate from 1981 to now, 40 years, has been on the downward track, which shows that the U.S. has been through interest rate cuts, to maintain the economy’s lingering, including maintaining the long bull run in U.S. stocks. And we see from the K line, the history of the few broken downward track, but in the last year broke, according to the general rule of the K line, there may be a second bottom, smashing deeper, or a double bottom, more low, we look at the previous break was in 2009 after the subprime crisis in 2010, and then in the subsequent year there was another bottom, and then the subsequent year 2013, 2015, and two bottoms. So last year’s bottom implies that the U.S. economy and the world economy are in the midst of an unprecedented crisis, even though governments know that they have been cutting interest rates and expanding their schedules to quench their thirst, and have been trying to get back to normal production as soon as possible, get the epidemic under control, and end quantitative easing as soon as possible. But historical data shows that if you can fall below the lower track, then you are not so easy to escape the quagmire. So not surprisingly, even if there is no secondary bottoming, the formation of negative interest rates, really formed a V-shaped reversal, but will not immediately return to the pace of interest rate hikes in. And with reference to the previous 3 and 5 years after the bottom in 2010, this fundamentals predicts a possible 3 to 5 years and a bull market in digital currency.
4, the United States unemployment rate if the above indicators, to non-financial students difficult to understand the internal logic, then the unemployment rate has the obvious law, right. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for April blew up, in addition to the employment participation rate slightly exceeded expectations, the number of new non-farm payrolls was far below market expectations, the unemployment rate did not fall but rose, causing the market to fall. You may say, April data is not good, but may soon to June-July will improve ah, everyone will concentrate on production, play coins and mining less people ah. Big Brother, this is the social unemployment rate. Unlike you looking for a job alone, if you don’t find one this month, the odds are you will find one next month. But the social unemployment rate means that these jobs are gone, because many companies have closed down and want to immediately generate new companies to replenish these jobs, which is so easy. So no jobs how to do, only to encourage entrepreneurship, encourage investment, so this time can raise interest rates? Raising interest rates would mean that I might as well save money, what to create a business. The Federal Reserve said: before 2023 probably will not consider raising interest rates, will tolerate an average inflation rate of 2% or more, in the economy has not fully recovered before the rate will not consider raising interest rates. The last sentence is the most critical, the economy has not fully recovered. There is also a potential factor that the economy don’t recover until the epidemic is over. Originally the United States according to the plan, but also at the end of the year to complete about 65% of the vaccination rate, the basic control of the epidemic, however, the Indian variant of the epidemic and come to Hoho, although and the United States across the sea, but India and the world office, the United States of finance and IT is the core industry, very dependent on the Delhi region of India, and Delhi, India and the epidemic is the most violent place, so it is impossible to raise interest rates in the short term. Of course, a bunch of evidence can still be found that the fundamentals are still deteriorating, although quantitative easing is poison and governments have little choice, especially the curator of this bull market, the US. So, many analysts are still worried about the proportion of bitcoin is reduced very much? The cottage industry is full of them. One possibility is the end of the bull market, the other greater possibility is that bitcoin first rest, let you junk coins first fly, until I rest well, you junk coins can go into the trash. Why is it more likely that it hasn’t reached the top of the bull market? This also explains, by the way, why the probability is now not a head and shoulders top. Because there is no top. At the end of any bull market, it’s a crazy top, a crazy top that pulls 20% a day or even higher, but it’s not happening now, even near $64,000. At the peak of the last bull market, Bitcoin was at 32.73%, and now that percentage is 41%, with room to spare. As for the 60-day cumulative gain of JDJ, at the peak of the last bull market, this value reached a maximum of 140%, while now this value is only -11%, meaning that not only did it not go up in the last 60 days, but it also went down. Do you think it’s possible that the bear market has come, or is it the same question, where is the top of the bull market? In this bull market, the highest increase in this data is 108%, which occurred on February 9, 2021, when the price was $46,000, obviously not even a little bit short of the recent $64,000. And the 140% rise in the last round can be right near the top of $19,800.
This includes the BTC-MVRV indicator. The larger this value reflects the larger bitcoin bubble. At the top of the last bull market, this value was greater than 4, and now this value is only around 2.53. So, how do you expect me to believe that it’s not a grind but a bull end lately? As for what was mentioned earlier, Ether is already over 0.08 to Bitcoin, which is pretty dangerous, so let’s look at the data.
The top of the last bull market was indeed 0.12, which means that one Ether can buy 0.12 Bitcoins and the bull market ended. This indicator implies that if a certain percentage is reached, there is always a consensus among a group of institutions that Ether has gone up too much, that it’s time for Bitcoin to smash the market, and that it’s time for the bull market to end. But when we look at the previous bull market, there was no ethereum in 2013, so it lacks reference. And the previous high, which was in the 2015 calf, the ratio of Ether was 0.03 to 0.12 in the last bull market, doesn’t that imply a trend that Ether is becoming more and more important and valuable. So this round, although not yet achieved upgrade, but the Ether completed the expansion, and ushered in the DEFI and NFT explosion of the Ether, why can’t the exchange ratio increase a little more, before the end of it? For example, this time, instead of going up 4 times (from 0.03 to 0.12), just go up 2 times, then the ratio should be 0.24, if Bitcoin is $120,000, then Ether is $28,800, if Bitcoin goes to $270,000, then Ether is $64,800. Of course about this data, I am also casually so, ethereum this round to $10,000 I have to wake up laughing. So now that this ratio is low, the bigger possibility is not to the top, but that bitcoin is grinding, and then it will make up for it later, and bitcoin has improved, and the ratio of ethereum to bitcoin, assuming that is at 0.1 when the bull market ends, then the end of bitcoin’s current bull market if it is $200,000, and ethereum may be $20,000. Of course, I have more aggressive friends that are firmly looking at bitcoin to $280,000 this round and ethereum to $30,000. And the biggest retracement of bitcoin down, which is 80%, so they think the bottom of bitcoin in the bear market, which is also at $50-60,000, and ethereum bear retracement 80%, the bottom is at $6000. And according to V Guest, the technical line, Ether is highly chip intensive between 1200-2000, the bear market is very, very difficult to fall below $1200, even if the current round of Ether is only to $8000, want to buy Ether below $1000, the dream can be.
So if there are no accidents, such as V God hanging out, students you have other ways to get Ether below $1000?
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/bitcoin-200000-ethereum-20000-reached-in-november-can-you-believe-it/
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