In 2021, we will see:
DeFi exchange surpassed CeFi, NFT sales exceeded 700 million U.S. dollars, Sotheby’s auctioned NFT with ETH, Axie rose from 30 million U.S. dollars to 10 billion U.S. dollars, OpenSea sales exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars, Coinbase IPO, El Salvador made Bitcoin a legal tender , EIP 1559 starts and destroys millions of ETH, the TVL of other layer 1 public chains skyrocketed, and the opening of L2s on Ethereum
Construction, breakthrough, bull market. This is the best year in the encryption field.
No one can predict everything…even though our 2021 forecast is correct for major events in the cryptocurrency field in 2021.
So we will try again in 2022-just for fun.
The following are Bankless encryption forecasts for 2022.
1. The cryptocurrency crosses the new ATH, with a total market value of 5 trillion U.S. dollars. The bull market is not over yet. We are still in the same long-term bull market as in 2020 and 2021. This does not mean that it has been in an upward mode throughout the year, but we will definitely see new ATHs. Cryptocurrency reaching $5 trillion feels like a safe prediction…maybe more?
2. The Eth2 merger occurs. All the research is completed, the testnet is running, and now it is just a matter of debugging.All core researchers believe it will happen this year, and so will we. Say goodbye to Ethereum PoW in 2022.
3. Bitcoin is adopted by another sovereign country. El Salvador was launched in 2021 as the first sovereign country to adopt BTC. The first domino has fallen. Global fiat currency inflation is beginning to hit countries, and central banks will have to find alternatives. The Turkish lira is experiencing hyperinflation, with global reserve currency inflation reported to have reached 5% or more. Inflation is hitting non-G20 countries severely, and they will seek to hedge. BTC is the answer, at least for a certain country in 2022.
4. Ethereum becomes a trillion-dollar network. Mergers, proof of equity, EIP 1559, all of this is brewing a storm that will allow Ethereum to join Bitcoin into a trillion-dollar network. We speculated that this would happen in 2019. Witness in 2022!
5. The total value of the 2-tier lock-up reaches 25 billion U.S. dollars. Tier 2 tokens are coming, Ethereum Gas price is still an issue, all of which will bring an important year for Tier 2.
6. NFT sales reached 30 billion U.S. dollars. In 2021, total NFT sales will reach 15 billion U.S. dollars. We believe that based on the Coinbase NFT platform, potential OpenSea tokens and more popular NFT use cases, this number will double.
7. A DeFi agreement will enter the top 10 market capitalization. In 2021, we predict that the two DeFi agreements will reach this state. We were so wrong. However, we believe that DeFi will rebound in 2022 and replace some of the weaker projects in the top 10 by market capitalization. Potential candidate projects entering the top 10 include: AAVE, UNI, YFI, COMP, SNX and MKR, as well as some more powerful DeFi 2.0 projects.
8. DAO will make 8-digit purchases for offline physical projects. The industry is closely related to ConsitutionDAO.ConsitutionDAO is so close to success that its happening is an entry point for us. DAO will mature and find better ways to bid and purchase real-world items, enabling them to achieve some major victories this year.
9. Michael Saylor buys more bitcoins. We have entered 5 days in 2021, and he still hasn’t. When will Michael buy more BTC? ! ?
Ryan Sean Adams, founder of Bankless
Optimistic about the second layer.
Forecast results for 2021
The biggest winner of 2021: AXS
EIP1559 was launched and we started to burn ETH. ✅
Internet bonds are memed. ✅
The central bank will recognize Bitcoin. ✅
You will receive a text message. ✅
The digital dollar will be launched. ❌ (So close!)
The market value of stablecoins exceeds US$250 billion ❌
Forecast for 2022:
Biggest winner in 2022: 2-tier tokens
Cryptocurrencies exceed 7 trillion U.S. dollars. Optimistic about 2022, the market value of cryptocurrencies will exceed $7 trillion at least sometime during the year. With it, the second central bank will publicly disclose cryptocurrencies (following El Salvador) on its balance sheet.
ETH to 10,000 U.S. dollars. The ETH catalyst, including mergers and L2 adoption, will make it more than $10,000. As the ecosystem shifts to L2, ETH has a new narrative-“L2 index assets” (chain of chains).
L2 entered the top 10. At least two Tier 2 tokens will enter the top 10 crypto assets by market capitalization. At least three layer 2 networks will have more active addresses and transactions than L1 Ethereum (Great Migration). At least two new tokens are issued for the second layer.
The bridge to billions. Bridge projects (such as Hop, Connext, Across) issue tokens worth more than billions (bridge to anywhere).
BTC to 100,000 USD. BTC was at a price of over $100,000 at some point this year (BTC is not dead yet).
Web3 becomes social. The decentralized identity finally shines in a breakthrough project (DeID). The introduction of NFT functions by most major social media marks the beginning of their integration with the public chain (Metaverse front-end).
DeFi is back. The Ethereum ecosystem DeFi token gains the second growth catalyst driven by L2 and new use cases (DeFi szn). The TVL in DeFi reaches 500 billion US dollars.
Crypto Bank IPO. There is at least one cryptocurrency exchange or cryptocurrency bank IPO on a traditional public exchange (IPOoooor).
DAO has become even stranger. A DAO made headlines, buying something culturally significant (Cultural DAO) for more than $50 million. Politics discovered the DAO, and at least launched a fairly large political DAO (Political DAO). The value of at least one social token or cultural DAO has increased by more than $1 billion (DAO szn)
NFT adds extensions. The NFT community organization established in 2021 launches games, TV shows, membership benefits and governance tokens (NFT expansion).
GameFi creates a niche market. Indie games on L2 have a special year of construction, with some notable breakthroughs.
Founder David Hoffman
Forecast results for 2021
The biggest winner of 2021: MATIC
The market value of an unsecured/algorithmic stablecoin will reach 1 billion U.S. dollars. ✅
An unsecured/algorithmic USD stablecoin will also explode✅
Tokenized real-world assets as an industry will continue to underperform✅
The UDS yield on Ethereum will maintain an annual interest rate of more than 10% for most of this year. ✅
A major game studio will announce their intention to integrate NFT assets into their games ✅
None of the core blue chip DeFi protocols will be hacked. ✅
Due to a strategic error, Yearn will lose some users’ funds. ✅
The hype around decentralized mortgage as a service provider✅
Discord will become the main platform for discussing encryption✅
Tron will use the same way as XRP, one way or another. ✅
The supply of stablecoins on all other non-Ethereum blockchains will be an afterthought ❌
There will be an unsustainable social token mania. ❌
No important new L1 ❌
Desktop usage will lose its dominant position relative to mobile usage ❌
Desktop DeFi usage will continue to be dominated by MetaMask
Libra (Diem) will be launched ❌
Forecast for 2022
The “coming bear market” will often be discussed until it becomes a meme. The bear market will not come.
Crypto newcomers who don’t care about decentralization will continue to increase in scale and energy…sadly
The merger will happen. ETH APY will be <17% in the first few weeks. It will quickly be reduced to a more sustainable level (<10%), and the pledged ETH will exceed 15 million ETH. The ETH price will break any ATH within 3 months after this event.
Ethereum’s competitors will try to fix their money supply plan. The first task is to finally stabilize their chain. Once they do, they will turn to this.
There will be a meaningful fee market on the chain of some Ethereum competitors. It will not solve the high inflation rate of the asset itself.
Both Optimism and Arbitrum will develop into prosperous metropolises. Gas optimization and the gradual release of the network have brought a lot of developer attention and user appeal, while Ethereum lost to other competitors.
EVM equivalence will provide an additional long-term ride on Optimism to compensate for its slower start-up, and may be the attribute that has led to it becoming the dominant optimistic rollup form factor.
NFT rollover will soon become an integration of enthusiasts and those who like to “advance with the times”. NFT flip will become a fashion game.
As the U.S. dollar continues to inflate, RAI will gain a tailwind of adoption.
Bored Apes will flip the Punks, further proving that there is nothing to win by standing. Punks will still be 100 times cooler.
‘Web3’ will become a household name, widely known for its populist response to the current world Internet institutions.
For similar reasons, “bankless” memes will also be adopted by smaller and more engaged people.
Politicians will stand up to defend the Web3 protocol in order to obtain support and funding. Some people will even defend Web3 because it is the right thing to do!
Bankless will complete the year and will not miss any Monday podcast, Tuesday live broadcast or Friday weekly summary.Just like 2021. The same is true for newsletters.
Edited by Lucas Campbell
Realize that I am not good at forecasting.
Forecast results for 2021
The biggest winners in 2021: FWB, BAYC
Retrospective distribution will bring high profits to advanced users✅
Uniswap’s annual transaction volume will reach 1 trillion U.S. dollars ❌
The value of crypto art sales will exceed $1 billion. ❌
There will be a black swan event similar to DAO❌
DPI market value exceeds 1 billion U.S. dollars ❌
DeFi derivatives will flourish❌
Forecast for 2022
The biggest winner of 2022: Music NFT
The flip will happen. Momentum is in the ETH/BTC chart. This, combined with the merger, EIP 1559, mortgage ETH, DeFi, and the demand for NFT, will cause a large-scale supply-side liquidity crisis for ETH, which will push it to become the number one. Whether it lasts is a different question.
The creators’ economic hype cycle. Last year, we saw the emergence of NFT and a wave of artists with their own NFT projects. I think this trend will continue with Music NFT (watching Catalog and Sound.xyz closely) and the hype cycle surrounding social tokens.
Collectors and cultural DAOs can get crazy. DAO can be started for almost anything. We will see communities formed overnight, with capital reaching 8-figure. Constitution DAO, LinksDAO, Gnar Collective, etc. are all on this path.
DeFi is making a comeback. Definitely did not see that 2021 was a downturn in DeFi. I think we will rebound on the trend of improved token economic model (the project will adopt the veTOKEN model) and agreement merger, because the industry is consolidating.
Airdrops continue to happen. The only thing that was correct in my prediction last year! However, this time I expect the distribution design to become more complicated/strict-airdrops will not be so easy to play and/or require unlocking work (that is, provide valuable services for the agreement to receive your distribution). For this year’s airdrop, I am personally optimistic about Layer 2s and PFP ERC20s (BAYC, Cool Cats, etc.).
Metaversal William M. Peaster
We like jpeg.
Biggest winner in 2021: AXS
Biggest winner in 2022: RON
The TVL in Ethereum DeFi will double. In 2021, the total value locked in the Ethereum DeFi project exceeds US$100 billion for the first time in history. We will see this figure reach 150 billion U.S. dollars by April 2022 and 200 billion U.S. dollars by the end of the year.
The TVL in Ethereum L2 reaches 100 billion US dollars. According to L2Beat, more than $6 billion is currently deposited into Ethereum L2s. As new token incentives and improvements in user experience have led to a major migration from DeFi to rollup, it is expected that this amount will soar nearly 20 times in the new year.
The top 50 DeFi projects will go bankrupt. With the emergence of old and new challenges, a well-known DeFi project will be effectively closed in 2022 because its dilemma seems insurmountable.
American politicians will continue to heat up to Web3. U.S. lawmakers will increasingly accept the crypto economy because they are aware of its many great potentials, such as how the stablecoin industry will become a major power multiplier for the U.S. dollar in the next few decades.
NFT sales in history will reach 50 billion U.S. dollars. By the end of 2021, historical NFT sales have reached 13 billion U.S. dollars. As NFT continues to become mainstream, this amount will increase nearly 5 times next year.
Cool Cats became the top 3 of the NFT brand. The Creatures expansion pack will serve as a moment for the Meebits/Mutant Ape Yacht Club and arouse new interest in Cool Cats in the new year. This surge will temporarily push Cats (with a transaction volume of 60,000 ETH) to the top 3 NFT projects with the largest transaction volume in history, second only to CryptoPunks (with a transaction volume of 740,000 ETH) and Bored Apes (with a transaction volume of 250,000 ETH) ).
Analyst Ben Giove
The biggest winner of 2021: RARI
Biggest winner in 2022: GMI
The TVL of five non-Ethereum L1 networks will exceed $50 billion. My guess is Arbitrum, Optimism, ZK Sync, Solana and Terra.
Structured products (especially option vaults) are very popular in DeFi. This will be driven by investors seeking alternative sources of income, not based on token release
Tokens used for liquid pledge agreements like Lido and Rocket Pool performed well before the merger. As a result, everyone will see their TVL more than 11 numbers, each with 10 billion dollars!
L2s fundamentally changed the competitive landscape of Ethereum DeFi. Native projects and early adopters outperform those on L1
Almost all major DeFi protocols have redesigned their token economics. I personally think that many people will turn to veModel similar to CRV.
More agreements will gamify its UI. After seeing the success of DeFi Kingdom, other protocols will follow suit, making DeFi more interesting to use!
Memelord Michael Wong
Biggest winner of 2021: Pudgy Penguins
Biggest winner in 2022: Wanderer NFT
The core blue chip DeFi application will enter the top 20 encrypted market capitalization list, with L2 expansion and adoption acceleration. AAVE and Sushi will perform well due to their multi-chain.
All top CEX legal currency entrances will have Ethereum L2 exits. As people take advantage of cheap transactions, this will promote a lot of interest and transaction volume into the second layer!
Overpriced Jpegs Carly Reilly
The biggest winner of 2021: VeeFriends
Biggest winner in 2022: Overpriced Jpegs podcast ratings!
The NFT market has experienced a sharp decline—maybe in the middle of the year—and some PFP projects will never resume.
The digital art and generative art markets have exploded and become a bigger piece of the contemporary art cake (which can be measured by the sales of auction houses).
Streaming media services will purchase the rights to make movies or TV shows based on NFT IP.
The new NFT market appeared and started to compete with OpenSea (not necessarily coinbase)
The biggest winner of 2021: FWB
Biggest winner in 2022: GMI
2022 will be the year of the DAO-DAO is the easiest way for people to participate in cryptocurrency with low risk (the cost is only time). With the continuous development of tools, onboarding and compensation, DAO will take off in 2022. This does not necessarily mean that their tokens will take off.
SubDAO will become mainstream-DAO will start to split the working group into subDAO. We will see interesting tag group experiments where subDAO is aligned with its parent DAO.
Some DAOs will go bankrupt. Other DAOs will be acquired. In some DAOs, the DAO treasury or community activities will dry up. We may see larger DAOs trying to acquire the technical or human capital of these dying DAOs. This may happen in the form of a token merger.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/bankless-team-predicting-events-in-the-encryption-field-in-2022/
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